January Review - Starting Slow

Rather than go into a full blown tirade about my already well documented runbad in the previous month, I'm going to instead try a point form good/bad/ugly format for this review.

The Good

• Managed (barely) a five figure month in spite of everything.


• Finished the month with 12 consecutive winning days. Unfortunately many were of the insignificant variety, but it's still a positive.


• Game quality improved to start the year, as it typically does after degenerating in November and December.


• Stars finally announced that they are going to fix their NLH cash game structure, a year later than the other major sites. See you hell 95%+ of shortstacks, cap poker is going to obliterate your edge which was due to little more than a flawed aspect of the game in the first place.


• Heading into the All-Star break the Flames have done enough to give the fans hope for the rest of the season. This may actually be a bad thing in the long run, but I live in the present!

The Bad

• Put in a hair under 120k hands for the month. Last year I got off to much stronger start very much due to putting in high volume during January, February and March. While I may be crippled by unthinkable variance for eternity, if I want to make more money I can do so by simply working more. It can be tough without a significant goal to shoot for though.


• The Patriots choke job against the Jets was not cool. Brady's recent playoff history is starting to look a little suspect which is surprising given his performances from earlier in his career.


• The strength of the Canadian dollar relative to its US counterpart hurts my bottom line. It has been at or above parity for nearly the entire year so far. At least it will make my time in Vegas for some of the WSOP cheaper in a sense.

The Ugly

• Ended up out a little over $4k AIEV on the month. There are a lot of regulars at my stakes who would kill to win that much over 120k hands. Instead, that is my handicap. It would be a much easier pill to swallow if I had say run at or above EV in just one of the 9 months previous, but that would be silly!


• Predictably, to go along with my $4k AIEV gap comes a $5.5k Sklansky gap! Obviously the two are closely related.

The Bottom Line:
$6465.66 table winnings
+$2914.86 FPP value (52051 VPPs * 3.5 FPPs/VPP * 1.6c/FPP)
+$53.90 FTP rakeback
+$600 stellar bonuses
---------------------------------------------------------
$10,033.32 USD total profit.

I'd certainly like to play a little higher volume in February, which should be a bit easier once the structure changes are implemented on the 10th and all my tables are deepstack. Deep tables tend to break a lot less quickly when compared to the current 20-50bb variety, and as such it will be easier to keep 22-24 tables open at nearly all times, thus increasing volume. Maybe I can only be out $2k AIEV in February too, it has to happen occasionally right?

February 10th

February 10th is the day 20-50bb poker will die on Pokerstars. It will be replaced by 20bb CAP tables, which effectively eliminates ratholing. It also eliminates the inherent edge shortstackers benefit from when playing at at able occupied by mostly full stacked players. Overall, a great day for anyone who isn't terrible at poker but an awful one for the no skill shortstacks. I can't wait!

Life Is Like A Hurricane

Very old, but gets no less amazing every time I watch it.

Unremarkable

Poker this week has been fairly unremarkable. I still can't run at EV for a single session, but that's not new and at least I haven't been out 1000bbs+ plus in a day lately. I finished work on my 5th video for Cardrunners, and the 4th numbered entry in my series. It is scheduled to go live on March 21st (date subject to change!), and starts dealing with more specific strategy that I think should be very helpful to players at micro and small stakes.

The Flames pulled off an entertaining 7-4 win against Dallas followed by beating the Canucks in a shootout tonight (with Tom Kostopolous 1 punching Kevin Bieksa in a scrap, Bieksa did not return the game), so hope begins anew. I'll be going to the game on Wednesday against St. Louis with my Dad, looking forward to it. 4 game win streak one time?

I'm nearing the end of the first of the three "sub stories" in Kingdom Hearts: Birth By Sleep for the DS. Given how much content was in Terra's story, the game will certainly be worth the money, and I'm sure will be one of the longer portable games I've played. The engine is solid, and I really enjoyed the voice acting of James Woods reprising his role as Hades of the Hercules Disney universe. Woods just has a great voice for a villain. There are three other games being released in early to mid February I have on pre-order, all of which are portable as is the trend these days. The Tactics Ogre remake and Ys 1&2 remake are both for the PSP, but Radiant Historia is an original game for the DS. Looking forward to them, though I still have Ys 6 for the PSP waiting to be played so I'll try to get through that first, though I still have a long way to go in KH!

FML

Patriots lay an egg against the Jets. Monthly AIEV gap over 5k. I was used to playing with a 1bb/100 EV handicap through the final 9 months of last year, but when you have to win 6bb/100 EV just to keep yourself breaking even something is very wrong.

Worth 1000 Words

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (8 handed)
Button ($591)
SB ($834.35)
BB ($660.50)
UTG ($120)
UTG+1 ($579.60)
MP1 ($1227.40)
Hero (MP2) ($438.45)
CO ($261)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, A
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $18, MP1 raises to $30, Hero raises to $120, 5 folds, MP1 calls $90

Flop: ($267) J, 5, 2 (2 players)
MP1 bets $282, Hero raises to $318.45 (All-In), MP1 calls $36.45

Turn: ($903.90) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($903.90) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $903.90 | Rake: $3

Results:
MP1 had 3, 4 (straight, six high).
Hero had A, A (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: MP1 won $900.90

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (9 handed)
UTG ($499.10)
UTG+1 ($327.45)
MP1 ($424.60)
MP2 ($124.50)
MP3 ($1477.10)
CO ($300)
Button ($231.50)
Hero (SB) ($303)
BB ($300)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K
4 folds, MP3 bets $18, CO calls $18, Button calls $18, Hero raises to $303 (All-In), 3 folds, Button calls $213.50 (All-In)

Flop: ($508) Q, 5, 8 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: ($508) 9 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($508) 4 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $508 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 4, A (one pair, fours).
Hero had A, K (high card, Ace).
Outcome: Button won $505

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (9 handed)
UTG ($494.20)
UTG+1 ($930.35)
MP1 ($300)
MP2 ($120)
MP3 ($301.80)
CO ($750.60)
Button ($1118.05)
Hero (SB) ($352.05)
BB ($318.90)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q
3 folds, MP2 bets $15, MP3 calls $15, 1 fold, Button calls $15, Hero raises to $81, 2 folds, MP3 calls $66, Button calls $66

Flop: ($264) 9, J, 6 (3 players)
Hero bets $271.05 (All-In), 1 fold, Button calls $271.05

Turn: ($806.10) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($806.10) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $806.10 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 6, 3 (two pair, sixes and threes).
Hero had Q, Q (one pair, Queens).
Outcome: Button won $803.10

All three above agains the same villain. Of course he ends up going broke to other regs getting it in with 2 live cards, and somehow these people hold.

PokerStars Game #55671316151: Hold'em No Limit (€1/€2 EUR) - 2011/01/09 23:54:34 MT [2011/01/10 1:54:34 ET]
Table 'Midas' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 5: V504 (€429.35 in chips)
Seat 6: Ronfar3 (€384.70 in chips)
Seat 7: 32rrew (€214 in chips)
Ronfar3: posts small blind €1
32rrew: posts big blind €2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ronfar3 [Ad Qc]
V504: calls €2
Ronfar3: raises €8 to €10
32rrew: calls €8
V504: calls €8
*** FLOP *** [9d Td 8d]
Ronfar3: bets €21
32rrew: folds
V504: calls €21
*** TURN *** [9d Td 8d] [2d]
Ronfar3: bets €46
V504: calls €46
*** RIVER *** [9d Td 8d 2d] [7d]
Ronfar3: bets €85
V504: calls €85
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Ronfar3: shows [Ad Qc] (a flush, Ace high)
V504: shows [Jd 5s] (a straight flush, Seven to Jack)
V504 collected €333 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot €334 | Rake €1
Board [9d Td 8d 2d 7d]
Seat 5: V504 (button) showed [Jd 5s] and won (€333) with a straight flush, Seven to Jack
Seat 6: Ronfar3 (small blind) showed [Ad Qc] and lost with a flush, Ace high
Seat 7: 32rrew (big blind) folded on the Flop

Gotta chase your straight flush outs then flat the nuts on the river.

PokerStars Game #55672144872: Hold'em No Limit (€1/€2 EUR) - 2011/01/10 0:42:39 MT [2011/01/10 2:42:39 ET]
Table 'Midas' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: brzyda! (€110.35 in chips)
Seat 2: Huha'sgirl (€200 in chips)
Seat 3: frosty012 (€211.40 in chips)
Seat 4: LoggerRythym (€316.55 in chips)
Seat 5: V504 (€493.50 in chips)
Seat 6: Ronfar3 (€345.45 in chips)
Seat 7: 32rrew (€235.80 in chips)
Seat 8: Biden4prez08 (€211.25 in chips)
Seat 9: AnKr1981 (€114.20 in chips)
Biden4prez08: posts small blind €1
AnKr1981: posts big blind €2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ronfar3 [Ah Kc]
brzyda!: folds
Huha'sgirl: folds
frosty012: folds
LoggerRythym: folds
V504: raises €2 to €4
Ronfar3: raises €12 to €16
32rrew: folds
Biden4prez08: folds
AnKr1981: folds
V504: calls €12
*** FLOP *** [7h Kd 2d]
V504: bets €8
Ronfar3: raises €20 to €28
V504: calls €20
*** TURN *** [7h Kd 2d] [Js]
V504: checks
Ronfar3: checks
*** RIVER *** [7h Kd 2d Js] [5s]
V504: bets €94
Ronfar3: calls €94
*** SHOW DOWN ***
V504: shows [Jh Jd] (three of a kind, Jacks)
Ronfar3: mucks hand
V504 collected €277 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot €279 | Rake €2
Board [7h Kd 2d Js 5s]
Seat 1: brzyda! folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Huha'sgirl folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: frosty012 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: LoggerRythym folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: V504 showed [Jh Jd] and won (€277) with three of a kind, Jacks
Seat 6: Ronfar3 mucked [Ah Kc]
Seat 7: 32rrew (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Biden4prez08 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: AnKr1981 (big blind) folded before Flop

Against the same drooler. Maybe tomorrow I'll fade one two outer, or perhaps a one outer? Sure would be nice.

For the record, yesterday was my most profitable session of the month and best in terms of AIEV. I was $450 below AIEV. Why can't Stars just debit $500 from my account every time I log in and allow me to play the same game as everyone else?

I Don't Ask For Much

But I would like to occasionally fade one outers, be able to get the nut straight in against bottom pair no kicker profitably, and not be bluff shoving AA against ATC. 5 sessions into the new year and already out over $2k AIEV. Oh, it would also be nice if Miikka Kiprusoff could stop a beach ball when his team dominates so they could get a well deserved win.

Favorite hands from today:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (8 handed)
Button ($333)
SB ($289.65)
BB ($300)
UTG ($599.55)
Hero (UTG+1) ($341.40)
MP1 ($579)
MP2 ($81)
CO ($289.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9, 9
1 fold, Hero bets $18, MP1 calls $18, 3 folds, SB calls $15, 1 fold

Flop: ($60) J, 4, 9 (3 players)
SB bets $12, Hero raises to $60, 1 fold, SB raises to $108, Hero raises to $321, SB calls $163.65 (All-In)

Turn: ($603.30) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($603.30) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $603.30 | Rake: $3

Results:
SB had 4, 4 (four of a kind, fours).
Hero had 9, 9 (full house, nines over fours).
Outcome: SB won $600.30

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (8 handed)

UTG+1 ($74)
Hero (MP1) ($200)
MP2 ($329.80)
CO ($200)
Button ($417.85)
SB ($83.70)
BB ($395)
UTG ($487.90)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, A
UTG bets $16, 1 fold, Hero raises to $46, 5 folds, UTG calls $30

Flop: ($98) 5, Q, 7 (2 players)
UTG bets $441.90 (All-In), Hero calls $154 (All-In)

Turn: ($406) 6 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($406) 5 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $406 | Rake: $3

Results:
UTG had 5, 9 (three of a kind, fives).
Hero had A, A (two pair, Aces and fives).
Outcome: UTG won $403

This next one is against the same villain as the previous hand.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (8 handed)
UTG+1 ($326.35)
Hero (MP1) ($200)
MP2 ($194)
CO ($114.70)
Button ($200)
SB ($200)
BB ($120)
UTG ($421.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, K
UTG bets $421.50 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero calls $200 (All-In), 5 folds

Flop: ($410) J, 4, A (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: ($410) 10 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($410) 8 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $410 | Rake: $3

Results:
UTG had Q, K (straight, Ace high).
Hero had A, K (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: UTG won $407

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (9 handed)
Hero (BB) ($208.85)
UTG ($300.10)
UTG+1 ($81.70)
MP1 ($88)
MP2 ($271.85)
MP3 ($229.35)
CO ($312.40)
Button ($189.90)
SB ($88)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4, 7
UTG calls $4, 2 folds, MP2 calls $4, 2 folds, Button calls $4, SB calls $2, Hero checks

Flop: ($20) 5, 3, 6 (5 players)
SB bets $8, Hero raises to $34, 2 folds, Button calls $34, SB calls $26

Turn: ($122) 6 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $170.85 (All-In), 1 fold, SB calls $50 (All-In)

River: ($222) 6 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $222 | Rake: $3

Results:
SB had 3, K (full house, sixes over threes).
Hero had 4, 7 (straight, seven high).
Outcome: SB won $219

Of course, there's also a billion hands where the fish float no pair no draw on the flop, call another PSB bet after they pick up a gutter and then I bluffcatch the river or whatever to put me out waaaay more than $2k Sklansky EV so far.

Year graph so far: