Winrate

To most serious online players, winrate is everything. Even when sensibilities suggest that average hourly earnings be the statistic of importance, it seems that time and time again the poker macho man is all about the winrate.

In 2008 as I broke into small stakes and became a high volume regular, I established a solid winrate over a fairly large amount of hands (I believe the figure was in the 2.5-3ptBB ballpark, it's been a while!). In 2009 I embarked on the SNE grind, and my winrate dropped some - it was still respectable (a shade under 2ptBB on the year), but no longer upper tier. Thanks to the huge amount of rakeback SNE generates my hourly was most definitely higher than the previous year, but through the massive grind and tonnes of well documented run bad I couldn't help the nagging feeling that my results weren't where I would have liked them to be.

In 2010, my winrate over the ~450k hands I've played to date is the highest its ever been. I feel like I'm crushing the games, especially considering I'm a 24 tabling nit that plays heavy volume relative to most. This lead me to think: what changed?

I have mentioned in previous posts (mainly in January) that I tweaked my game a bit to start the new year. This has surely been a factor, but to be honest, I don't think it is as significant as I would like it to be. In 2009, I had to play a pretty insane amount of hands to reach my goal. This was poor for my mindset and focus level. In addition, it meant playing more hours outside of prime time and prime days - that is, the days and times when the games are the softest. I believe this is the largest factor contributing to the improvement. Further, I feel like the overall game quality of Pokerstars SSFR has improved in 2010. This means that Pokerstars is doing good things, and if the upcoming changes do (almost) put an end to shortstacking, things will only get much better.

Finally, variance has most definitely been a factor. Even over extremely large samples variance isn't negligible, and I'm certain that I have run quite a bit better this year than last.

2010:

3.25ptBB/100 works for me. To be honest, if at the end of the year I'm a 2.75ptBB/100 winner I'd still consider the year a massive success. Hell, even 2.5 sounds pretty appetizing.

I guess I should also mention my Saturday grind was great. I ran well (no fooling, not just average, but GOOD), and was happy with the way I played. Add today to a great Friday and pretty decent Thursday, and it's been a damn sexy weekend financially.

Near Miss

During the past week I've run the worst of this year thus far. Thankfully, after a large downswing (~15 BIs) early in the week I did manage a respectable Thursday followed by a rather monstrous Friday. Had I been able to fade a couple 2-3 outers in huge pots on Friday I would have easily had my first ever 3k profit day, but alas it was not to be.

Here's a graph of the full stretch, huge downswing included at the start:


Below is my favorite hand from Saturday. Villain is a bad reg who almost never folds to cbets, but manages to break even so he's obviously not going to mindlessly stack any pair 100bb deep. I really like my river c/shove because he basically can't have straights/sets but I absolutely can. In addition, he has busted draws a fair bit too.

(Ugh, I can't convert the hand because the convertor I use doesn't support Euro tables! You'll have to deal with raw text I guess.)

PokerStars Game #41068901513: Hold'em No Limit (€0.50/€1.00 EUR) - 2010/03/12 16:18:37 MT [2010/03/12 18:18:37 ET]
Table 'Sampo V' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: Ronfar3 (€100.50 in chips)
Seat 2: bertucho (€130.75 in chips)
Seat 3: machiaktzu (€232.15 in chips)
Seat 4: Levy Process (€111.40 in chips)
Seat 5: SoNe1988 (€144.90 in chips)
Seat 6: floppeyone (€100 in chips)
Seat 8: CI58 (€145.90 in chips)
Seat 9: TheGraveWolf (€157.35 in chips)
Ronfar3: posts small blind €0.50
bertucho: posts big blind €1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ronfar3 [Ah 8h]
machiaktzu: folds
Levy Process: folds
SoNe1988: folds
floppeyone: folds
CI58: folds
TheGraveWolf: folds
Ronfar3: raises €2 to €3
bertucho: calls €2
*** FLOP *** [Jd 9d 7s]
Ronfar3: bets €4
bertucho: calls €4
*** TURN *** [Jd 9d 7s] [6s]
Ronfar3: bets €11
bertucho: calls €11
*** RIVER *** [Jd 9d 7s 6s] [Qh]
Ronfar3: checks
bertucho: bets €20
Ronfar3: raises €62.50 to €82.50 and is all-in
bertucho: folds
Uncalled bet (€62.50) returned to Ronfar3
Ronfar3 collected €74 from pot
Ronfar3: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot €76 | Rake €2
Board [Jd 9d 7s 6s Qh]
Seat 1: Ronfar3 (small blind) collected (€74)
Seat 2: bertucho (big blind) folded on the River
Seat 3: machiaktzu folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Levy Process folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: SoNe1988 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: floppeyone folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: CI58 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: TheGraveWolf (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Some additional positives: Lunar remains awesome and the Flames have won four straight. I really do hope the Flames can sneak into playoffs, but given the schedules of the three teams fighting for the last two playoff spots in the West, it is going to be really tough and they're definitely an underdog.

Polarizing

Over the last couple days it seems like things have either gone really well or really poorly. I ran into the ass end of variance on Thursday, ending my sessions 550bbs ($700+) below AIEV. Thankfully I booked a solid win on Friday, shipping $1.5k and running a beastly 150bbs above(!!) AIEV. To continue with the polar positive/negative theme, thus far in March I've run really awful at 600NL (over a super small sample, obv), great at 400NL (again, smallish sample), really awful at 200NL, and great at 100NL. Everything is happening in polarized pairs.

Similarly, the Flames played a lousy game against the Wild on Wednesday, but rebounded nicely and actually managed to score a bunch of goals against the Devils on Friday. I still don't believe the new look Flames will be make the playoffs however, and even if they did somehow squeak into the 8th seed their chances against SJ or CHI wouldn't look good.

On Wednesday I picked up my copy of the PSP Lunar remake. As someone who very much enjoyed the first remake of Lunar: Silver Star Story for the PS1, I've been very impressed with this latest offering. It doesn't hurt that it must be 7+ years since I've played the first Lunar - but at the very least the upgraded visuals have been down right impressive. I'm going to have to use some big time willpower to not interrupt my Lunar play through with FFXIII when it is released in a few days.

Here's a fun hand from Friday vs a very LAG reg whom for whatever reason was playing 100NL rather than his usual 400/600NL and had been spewing like crazy.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed)
MP2 ($40)
Hero (CO) ($118.10)
Button ($87)
SB ($220.15)
BB ($20)
UTG ($101.50)
UTG+1 ($18.50)
MP1 ($32.65)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, 7
4 folds, Hero bets $3, 1 fold, SB raises to $11, 1 fold, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($23) A, 5, A (2 players)
SB bets $12, Hero calls $12

Turn: ($47) 3 (2 players)
SB bets $31, Hero calls $31

River: ($109) 10 (2 players)
SB bets $166.15 (All-In), Hero calls $64.10 (All-In)

Total pot: $237.20 | Rake: $3

Results:
SB had 8, 5 (two pair, Aces and fives).
Hero had A, 7 (three of a kind, Aces).
Outcome: Hero won $234.20

WTF Are You Thinking Sutter?

Boyd for a 4th? BOYD FOR A 4th!?

I can live with bringing in Staois. He's a warrior, but too old and his 2.2 mil contract being added for next year is retarded. I don't mind the McBackup for Toskala trade because his contract expires after this season.

But a good, young player who should have been given far more opportunities up until this time in his career for a bag of fucking pucks? Fuck you Sutter! You're officially insane.

(Oh yeah, it's trade deadline day in the NHL.)