Long Weekend Review + Squeezing Light

I played a lot of poker over the Victoria Day weekend, finishing at 13.6k hands. I ran well during the first half, then poorly during the second half. As you'll see in the graph below, I ended up running bad in terms of showdown equity. However, I ran positively in terms of "heater versus cooler" spots, and flopped pretty well overall, so I probably actually ran marginally above average over the period as a whole. As I posted a very satisfying 6.3 ptBB/100 winrate over the period, it goes without saying that the tables were very good with lots of easy money laying around.

Here's my showdown EV graph for the weekend ($850 profit, running $170 below Sklansky expectation):


As the title suggests, I'll add a little strategy/hand history content to this post by talking about how we can make a +EV move by occasionally executing a "squeeze play" without a premium hand.

In the hand history below, the original raiser in MP1 is a 12/7 regular. His raising range from MP is most likely something like {AQ+, 66+}. Of this range, he is likely folding {AQ, 66-JJ} to my 3-bet, while calling or raising with {AK, QQ+}.

There are 16 combos each of AK and AQ, 6 combos each of 66-AA. Thus, the range we have assigned our villain has 86 combinations in all. Based on our estimation of what he calls/raises/folds, he is folding 52 of these combos, or 60% of the time!

Lets take a quick look at the actual hand history before proceeding further:

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players

Hero (BTN): $59.20 (118.4 bb)
SB: $34.95 (69.9 bb)
BB: $43.15 (86.3 bb)
UTG: $11 (22 bb)
UTG+1: $13.85 (27.7 bb)
MP1: $50 (100 bb)
MP2: $49.50 (99 bb)
MP3: $54.55 (109.1 bb)
CO: $40.40 (80.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with
2 folds, MP1 raises to $2, MP2 calls $2, MP3 folds, CO calls $2, Hero raises to $10, 5 folds

Results: $8.75 pot
Hero mucked (high card Jack) and won $8.75 ($6.75 net)

Because the players acting behind the villain were only strong enough to call the initial raise, it's safe to say they probably don't have AA or KK. That said, if they are weak-tight, a hand like AK which they may call our 3-bet with is very possible. However, our TJs will play very well against such a hand, especially because we'll have both position and be the preflop aggressor. Thus, we probably are in a pretty marginal position should one of these two players call, with some decent dead money in the pot. Lets consider such a situation EV neutral.

Since one of the two players acting after the initial raiser calling is EV neutral, lets see what happens when the initial raiser calls or raises. We have a hand that plays well in multiway pots, but lets ignore what happens when more than one villain calls, as it is unlikely to occur. So, on the 40% chance that villain calls/raises, lets assume that he always 4-bets AA/KK, and always calls AK and QQ. This is a pretty big assumption (and he should actually 4-bet AK/QQ some of the time, and call with AA/KK some of the time) but should be decent for a simple analysis. Thus, we are being called by 22 of the 34 combos (65%), and getting raised by 12 of the 34 (35%). Lets assume we fold to any raise. Against his range of {AKo, AKs, QQ} our hand of JTs has 35% equity. With this information we can start a rudimentary EV calculation.

60% of the time the villain folds. So 60% of the time, we win $6.75, for an EV of +$4.05. 40% of the time the villain calls or raises. Of this 40%, 14% of the time the villain raises, we fold, and we lose $10, for an EV of -$1.4. 26% of the time the villain calls, and our hand has $35% equity of the $24.75 pot, risking $10. Our risk is $1.4 more than our equity at this point, so 26% of the time, we are losing $1.4, for an EV of -$0.4.

Thus, our total EV in this rudimentary model is $4.05 - $1.4 - 0.4 = +$2.25. Obviously, we oversimplified and there are other factors which will probably decrease this vaule in practice, such as one of the blinds waking up with AA/KK, etc. That said, it is still clearly a +EV play, even though we likely do not have the best hand.

There are two reasons why we were able to make such a play:
(1) Our villain had a range which contained many hands he would be able to fold to the squeeze. Our villain was not a maniac, and is not going to want to play for stacks preflop with a hand like AQ or JJ. If our villain was a 6/3 nit, we obviously should not be making this play as our villain rarely if ever folds. The villains acting behind are also need to not be maniacs.

(2) We have not gotten out of line to an extent that suggests we would be squeezing light. If we start squeezing with ATC, it will probably be +EV at first, assuming the conditions above are met. But eventually, some of the better villains will start to notice. Even the mediocre regs at $50NL are bound to recognize that you're squeezing more than is reasonable if you do so with ATC, because it's such a strong play. When the better players start to adjust, squeezing light can easily become -EV. Of course, at this point squeezing with AA or KK becomes even more +EV than it is normally, so it's not all downside.