Here is my EV graph:
I win money, but I ran a little over $400 bad in Sklansky vs Showdown winnings. Those can be fairly skewed though, so lets check all-in luck (which is pure, though it tells a smaller section of the variance story):
Big surprise, I'm out $400 there too. Well, lets take a look at heater versus coolers, maybe I had AA vs KK several times to even out my shitty luck from an equity perspective:
Wow, I'm out over $400 in heater versus cooler hands too! What a surprise. A session that would have easily been over +$1200 had I ran average turned into +$400 (along with around ~$240 in rakeback, yay) because I'm permanently doomswitched.
Enough bitching, and on to a hand history. I recall a respected 2+2 poster (probably SABR or Bottomset) saying that any decent player should be running a handful of 3-barrel bluffs every session. As I am a nitty 24-tabler, I have an image such that my 2nd and 3rd barrels get a ton of respect from the regs. I've started to fire second barrels more often with air on low boards (which causes regs to fold their weak overpairs they float my flop bet with). Additionally, both this session and last, I've run a 3-barrel bluff. Both have worked, though neither were against regs. I think the bluff from 2 sessions ago was pretty good, though I'm not sure I like the one from last night which we are going to look at.
Lets break down the hand history:
Villain in this hand is a 24/13 LAG over a few hundred hands. I'm not sure how he got his stack, but I haven't noticed him playing terribly. Note that we are 220+BB deep.
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
BTN: $300.95 (301 bb)
SB: $25.20 (25.2 bb)
BB: $114.90 (114.9 bb)
UTG: $138.35 (138.4 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): $223.50 (223.5 bb)
MP1: $116.65 (116.7 bb)
MP2: $15.90 (15.9 bb)
MP3: $44.50 (44.5 bb)
CO: $100 (100 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG+1 with Ks Ah
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3.50, 4 folds, BTN calls $3.50, 2 folds
Standard. Note that my raising range is tight since I am UTG+1. He's a fairly loose player so he is definitely calling behind with suited connectors, etc.
Flop: ($8.50) 2h 8d Td (2 players)
Hero bets $6, BTN calls $6
Standard c-bet, he decides to float. His range consists of sets, Tx, 33-77, 99, JJ-QQ, and Ax and other suited connectors of diamonds. He may also rarely have KK-AA, though he likely 3-bets them preflop most of the time.
Turn: ($20.50) 2c (2 players)
Hero bets $13.50, BTN calls $13.50
I fire a second barrel to fold out Tx, 33-77, and sometimes larger PPs and diamond draws as well. When he calls he may still be on a diamond draw (though his call is pretty bad), or more likely has a hand like 99 or JJ.
River: ($47.50) Th (2 players)
Hero bets $35.50, BTN folds
I don't really like the third barrel here in hindsight, though it isn't as terrible as it initially looks. If he has a busted diamond draw here, there's a good chance he would bet it if checked to, and I'd be bluffed off the best hand (AK high, lol). So betting here does at the very least win us the pot in the "air versus air" scenario, which is probably the case a decent amount of the time. If villain has Tx, he's obviously raising, and we will fold. If he had 88, he'd likely have raised the flop or turn. Thus, aside from a busted draws villain's most likely holding are 99, JJ and Tx. If he is calling the turn barrel with 99 and JJ, he should be calling the river, but that doesn't mean he will, and in practice he probably folds a lot of the time, as my hand looks very much like KK-AA after the river bet.
Results: $47.50 pot ($2.30 rake)
Hero mucked Ks Ah (two pairs, Tens and Twos) and won $45.20 ($22.20 net)
For my river bet to be +EV, villain needs to fold just over 42% of the time. I think it is probably pretty close to neutral EV.
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