Choices

It's December 23rd, and as promised Pokerstars announced the changes to its VIP program for 2010. While there are significant changes (lots of value added for low volume players, milestone values shifted to increase the rakeback of those earning 200k-500k VPPs/year), very little is going to change for me personally. As expected, full ring games are being changed to a 6x VPP system, which while not nearly as bad as what was originally proposed will still result in a rather small decrease in the VPPs/hand earned at the limits I play (primarily 100NL and 200NL FR). On a positive note the addition of the low volume "stellar rewards" and a tiny bit of added milestone cash results in an extra $1.2k in yearly bonus value for someone reaching SNE compared to 2009.

So the question becomes, what am I planning on doing in 2010? I posted in a 2p2 thread a couple weeks ago that I was intending on slacking off a bit next year and earning 600k VPPs, while maintaining SNE status through the end of September 2010 by putting in the required 50k VPPs/month. This made a lot of sense under the previous system because the milestone bonuses were structured such that if you weren't planning on going all the way to SNE, 600k was the sweet spot to stop to maximize your rakeback percentage on the year. Under the new system, this is no longer the case - although interestingly enough reaching 600k VPPs in the new system I would actually earn $400 more in bonus value than with the old system.

If I did go ahead with this plan, I'd expect to have a lot of free time (especially relative to 2009). I could use this time to work on broadening my poker horizons, as well taking on some non-poker related endeavors. I'd earn an estimated ~$135k from the base 600k VPP grind - but as I'd hopefully be improving and learning different styles/games (playing HU, 6max, PLO), I could potentially turn a nice additional profit from the learning and finish over $150k profits for the year. The extra time off would certainly be nice, as I'd only be putting around 100 hours of true grind per month.

The other option I'm considering is pursuing SNE again in 2010. During my 2009 SNE chase, 10% of the grind was mitigated by the WSOP ME promo which rewarded 100k VPPs. This promo increased my time off significantly and took a lot of pressure off the end of the grind, at the cost of not being forced to earn the winnings/FPP value I would have made grinding out that 100k VPPs. It has been suggested by Stars that this promotion will not be repeated in 2010. Thus, to achieve SNE again I would have to earn 100k more VPPs from grinding than I did in 2009, though it is quite likely some other promotions will be launched to help with this. Assuming no promotional help, I estimate I'd earn around $200k in pure winnings/FPP value/milestones during 2010 going down this path, in addition to the ~$40k in tournament packages I'd once again receive. Add to this having the 5x FPP modifier heading into 2011 and it's a lot of financial benefit, though requiring a very high level of effort: around 167 hours of grinding per month.

So, those are the options I've given myself. I haven't decided which one it's going to be yet, but here are some points that have crossed my mind lately:

• I'm at a place in my life (25 years old, bought a house last year, no kids, etc.) where I have a lot of freedom and with good money management maximizing my income now could result in exponential gains a long ways down the road.


• Last year's SNE grind was a lot of work, and I only had to do 900k VPPs thanks to the WSOP promo. I know I'm capable of doing the full 1 million, but playing that kind of volume for such a long time can be soul shattering during the periods you run bad.


• Playing a lower volume and trying to pick up additional income on the side from different forms of poker would make the game far more enjoyable and provide more of an intellectual challenge.


• My girlfriend loves to travel, and earning the two tournament packages again for 2011 would be really nice. I guess I'll have better insight on how significant this is once I get back from the PCA in a few weeks. Too bad I'll be making a decision before then, though I suppose changing my mind in early January wouldn't hurt.


• There may come a time when earning the kind of money that is currently achievable playing a high volume of small stakes games (and thus having fairly low variance in one's yearly earnings) is no longer possible. Taking maximum advantage for future benefit might be a really good thing. On the other hand, perhaps another poker boom is right around the corner and significantly better results will be attainable in year or two for an SSFR grinder...