I've been running pretty abysmally lately, it feels like 2009 all over again. Rather than rant further, I really should mention that I have given action to two prop bets this month. The results of which have thus far been positive from my betting stance.
The first prop to which I gave action was booger369's 10k in March over 200k max hands of 100NL FR bet. I met booger in Vegas (good guy), I've played a bunch with him at both 100NL and 200NL on Stars and he's a respected 2p2er. He ended up getting 2.5:1 odds, with me personally putting up $1250 to win $500. In hindsight, I think this is actually a pretty reasonable line for the bet - at the time of my betting, I thought it was definitely a +EV wager, but with the state of the games in 2010, 2.5:1 is likely a good line given the variables. Thus far booger is moderately behind pace with a little less than 80k hands left to be played.
The second prop I'm participating in is hard2tel's 40k in 31 days at 200NL FR bet. This is a very large scale bet, with h2t putting up $25k to win $100k, getting 4:1 odds. I personally have $2k on the line to win $500. In this bet I'm absolutely certain my wager was +EV, as earning $40k at 200NL FR in one month is borderline impossible. h2t is an awesome guy and great player, but he's behind pace and appears to be pretty close to throwing in the towel.
Anyway, here's a random hand from Saturday where a fish shows us the expert way to play AA:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)
MP1 ($100)
MP2 ($44.65)
MP3 ($73.80)
CO ($18.50)
Button ($100)
SB ($130.10)
Hero (BB) ($111.05)
UTG ($20)
UTG+1 ($104.15)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 6, 6
7 folds, SB calls $0.50, Hero bets $4.50, SB calls $3.50
Flop: ($9) 4, 7, 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, SB raises to $18, Hero calls $12
Turn: ($45) 8 (2 players)
SB bets $21, Hero raises to $88.55 (All-In), SB calls $67.55
River: ($222.10) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $222.10 | Rake: $3
Results:
SB had A, A (two pair, Aces and sevens).
Hero had 6, 6 (straight, eight high).
Outcome: Hero won $219.10
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