Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Pretty Average

It'd really be nice if being 5 BI's below AIEV wasn't a heater session, 7 BI's out average, and 10+ BI's out "bad". I accept that I'm always an underdog when the money goes in vs a fish and they aren't drawing dead, but maybe when I'm the favorite in a 95/5, 90/10, or even 85/15 spot I could win 10% of the time? 5% even? No?

SECT from last two days:


I'm heading off to Europe in a little over a week so I won't have a full month of poker. I'd be very close to pace for having a 100 BI out AIEV month if I could grind the month away though. That'd be awesome! I flip coins as a hobby and have fair coins land heads 100 times in a row all the time too, but only when flipped against people who don't play much.

6 comments:

Tortoise said...

Hey, great blog. Does your AIEV ever converge back? I've played 200k hands at 50nl and am 60bi under ev so I know how you feel.

Ronfar3 said...

That particular graph is actually Sklansky EV (though my AIEV is similarly ugly). To answer your question, some months are better than others though I definitely have had far more extreme deviations from the average on the negative side during the last year and a half.

Booman said...

Jason, I feel your pain I just don't see how it is possible to continually lose when all the money goes in as a huge favorite over and over again. Do you ever question the RNG or do you just chaulk it up to variance? I am not a cospiracy theorist but the stuff I've seen recently is just ridiculous. BTW you are the man keep up the good work.

Doubledoub said...

hey ron,

On April 30th (queensday) the whole of Netherlands will be one big ass party. I deffenitly recomend Amsterdam, but any big city will be lots of fun. Even the smaller ones.
Also the 29th is awesome
(queensnight) The hague, Utrecht and Amsterdam are known for it.
If it isnt to far out of your way you should defenitly visit Holland during that day.

Doubledoub said...

it's better then oktoberfest

Ronfar3 said...

Re: Booman, variance is a bigger bitch than most realize. I'll leave it at that.

Re: Doubledoub, the EPT MC Main Event (and as a consequence, my 5 star hotel provided by Stars) runs from April 24th to the 30th, so I'll still be in Monoco at that time. Thanks for the recommendation though.