Trendbreaking

On Thursday I had the first day in a long, long time in which I ran above AIEV. Funny enough, I'm still below expectation on the month, despite that thanks to Thursday I definitely feel like I'm on a little bit of a heater. I've only played a handful over 9k hands this month thus far, but I've had some very favorable results bumhunting at $600NL and E400NL - the latter of which I've only played 5 hands of for ~$440, a winrate of 899ptBB/100!

In looking through the big pots I played at $600NL today for a fun HH to post, I really did end up in some uncomfortable spots. I also made one pretty big mistake in a 3b pot that I'm fairly certain cost me some value against a very good regular, though I suppose in theory he might have made a heroic fold. I won't post the hand as it's a super standard spot where I c/c flop instead of c/ring as I wanted to allow him to barrel, but the board texture was such that a lot of turn cards will suck and cause him to go into pot control mode (which he did, only allowing me to win half a stack) so I really needed to c/r flop.

Anyway, I was put in two spots I hated against two other good regulars, both times with the same megadonk involved in the hand. I'm going to post the two hands and provide some commentary. I think I'm happy with the way I played the first one, while the other I think I was very lucky to not get owned by the very good aggro reg.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (8 handed)
CO ($607.80)
Button ($618)
SB ($613.65)
BB ($171.25)
Hero (UTG) ($668)
UTG+1 ($715.45)
MP1 ($711)
MP2 ($334)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A
Hero bets $24, 1 fold, MP1 calls $24, 1 fold, CO calls $24, 2 folds, BB calls $18

BB is a super megadonk running around 80/50. Other two callers are good, aggro regulars.

Flop: ($99) 7, 8, Q (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $60, 1 fold, CO calls $60, BB raises to $147.25 (All-In), Hero calls $87.25, CO calls $87.25

I obviously want to get it in vs the donk, but I hate the call from the reg. He'd definitely flat sets and two pair here to keep the fish in the pot. He'd probably squeeze QQ pre most of the time. So I'd estimate his range to be something like AQ, KQ, QJ, 78, 77, 88, T9 and 56. I time down called the donk jam - I really don't think there's much value in raising with any part of my range here. If he jammed over the top I'd probably crying fold - which would be a sick play for him to make with Qx - sometimes he'd end up getting it in drawing near dead vs me, but sometimes he'd make me fold better or a chop and stack the fish. When he calls I figure he can definitely still have a nut hand, though it's probably a little less likely.

Turn: ($540.75) 8 (3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero bets $135, 1 fold

The turn is a pretty good card, reducing the chance he has a set. I decided to do what I'd do with QQ or 88 in this spot. He can't really peel a draw like T9 ever here as he's now dead versus some of my value range, so I don't think betting big is reasonable. I might still be able to squeek out some value from AQ. I'd really like to know what he had...

River: ($540.75) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $540.75 | Rake: $3

Results:
BB had 9, Q (two pair, Queens and eights).
Hero had A, A (two pair, Aces and eights).
Outcome: Hero won $537.75

Next is an earlier hand featuring the same megadonk in the SB. Note that we're rather deep. The regular involved is a good player.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (9 handed)
UTG+1 ($645)
Hero (MP1) ($1064.35)
MP2 ($600)
MP3 ($600)
CO ($642)
Button ($836.25)
SB ($1344.10)
BB ($654)
UTG ($639.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, Q
UTG bets $18, 1 fold, Hero calls $18, 1 fold, MP3 calls $18, 2 folds, SB calls $15, 1 fold

Flop: ($78) J, 10, A (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets $42, SB calls $42, 1 fold, Hero calls $42

I think not taking a b/f myself on this flop is a mistake. Even though I really just want to get to showdown cheap with my hand, as soon as I take a c/c line here against a good player if draws brick I'm extremely prone to getting barreled off the best hand. Plus there's value to be had from the megadonk. Definitely a mistake. Based on his bet sizing I doubt MP3 ever has a set or two pair. Really just didn't know what to do in the moment.

Turn: ($204) 6 (3 players)
SB bets $18, Hero calls $18, MP3 calls $18

This particular megadonk had very linear betsizing tells. Small bets were basically always either very weak showdown value or a draw. I'm completely lost here because I know that if I call the reg can so easily raise as a bluff versus me with worse, but for value against the fish. My roomate was watching the hand and I actually predicted that would happen and ranted about how much I hated the spot, but much to my surprise he just flatted.

River: ($258) 2 (3 players)
SB bets $36, Hero calls $36, MP3 calls $36

River blanks, and at this point I'm good a ton, maybe occasionally chopping with MP3. Really don't like how I played this hand though, b/fing the flop would have made it much easier.

Total pot: $366 | Rake: $3

Results:
SB had 3, Q (high card, Ace).
Hero had A, Q (one pair, Aces).
MP3 mucked 7, A (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: Hero won $363