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A blog detailing the Poker adventures (and sometimes life) of an online poker Pro.
A blog detailing the Poker adventures (and sometimes life) of an online poker Pro.
6 comments:
Suicide watch is on
mate great blog. have sacrificed multiple virgin mosquitos that inhabit my room in efforts to turn your fortunes.
do you think the issues with the way that the ev line calculations are done in pt/hem affect this result. i may have misunderstood but i was under the impression that the trackers don't perform street by street equity calcs and this obviously alters what's shown.
jb.
Appreciate the sacrifices. You are correct in that HEM and PT do not calculate street by street equity. A tool called SECT (or a much older one called PokerEV) do this calculation, the result of which is commonly referred to as "Sklansky Bucks".
In terms of what the two calculations mean, I think you may have things backwards. AIEV is an extremely pure calculation - it only measures what it measures, but the calculation is simple and aside from very thin arguments involving preflop folding distributions (ie. if you ship AK BvB vs 77 it is on average more likely than HEM or PT3 believe that you spike an A or K as many combinations of As and Ks are less likely to have been folded preflop by those that have already acted compared to combinations of 7x - but this is only significant if you are far more willing to stack off with one type of hands versus another in these spots, which is almost never the case amongst regulars). As a result, AIEV is by far the easiest subsection of overall variance to measure accurately. Sklansky EV on the other hand may give you a "better" picture from a poker perspective in a lot of spots, but also becomes significantly skewed by play tendencies (for instance, if you play draws super passively you'll rarely get to showdown with bricked draws but get there a lot when you hit, and as such it'll look like you run better than you do in this regard). AIEV avoids this taint by simply looking at that one moment when the money went in, and the effect of variance after it ignoring anything else.
right yeah i see those sect graphs around did always wonder what the differences were.
hmmmm ok so what i'm trying to get at (having looked at my own aiev graphs and been somewhat confused) is this: say i have jj to villain kk and i get 60% of my stack in by the turn on a jxxx board. the river comes a k and we get the rest in there. is the aiev calc by the tracker is made based on the size of the final pot and the equity i have at the point the last of the money went in (which is basically as i understand it) and show up as say 100bb drop in aiev? and if that's the case do you think your playstyle in particular has any bearing on how much you run under ev?
sorry fairly long winded but just interested.
Your understanding of how AIEV is calculated is correct, but what I was getting at is that you have the result of what that means relative to playstyle and Sklansky EV backwards.
The AIEV calculation is only performed at the point the last money goes in as you said. Your playstyle may affect how frequently this calculation is performed in certain situations, but this has absolutely no effect on whether or not you run above or below expectation. AIEV is simply measuring expectation at these moments in time and how far your results are deviating from it. Your playstyle cannot influence whether or not you win more often than you should as an 85/15 favorite, or lose more than you should as a 45/55 underdog, etc. Perhaps a better way to phrase this is that any gap in your AIEV is completely independent of whether or not you're getting money in ahead or behind as well as how frequently or in what types of situations you are doing so, it is simply how far off the data points you have are from the statistical norm.
Sklansky EV on the other hand is very easily influenced by playstyle, but also provides a more useful look at certain situations, like the one you described where AIEV would view you as running exactly at expectation because the last of your stack went in drawing dead. It is not that AIEV is incorrect, it is simply that AIEV only measures your expectation from the point the last of your money goes in.
yeah sorry probably worded that badly, but you pretty much answered the question i was trying to ask. appreciate your explanation, i understand the aiev measure, what i was getting at was that i thought some peoples graphs are more prone to running under (or equally over) ev due to a style that warrants them just getting it in a lot in marginal spots and having more of an opportunity to deviate from their aiev.
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