Here is my EV graph for the period between Tuesday the 17th and Sunday the 22nd (since I last posted a graph):
On to a little strategy. In early May I wrote a post about how useful taking notes about player tendencies can be. During my Friday session, I played a hand in an extremely non-standard fashion based entirely on a read from a note I had taken on the villain.
Lets take a look at the hand history:
Villain in this hand is a 18/13/2.3/690 reg, who has recently moved up to 100NL. Most of the hands I have on him were at 50NL. He is spewy postflop, to the extent that his postflop play has recently been bashed in 2+2 SSNL Stars Regulars Thread. I have a note on villain that says "minraise=bluff".
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
MP2: $168.90 (168.9 bb)
MP3: $39.80 (39.8 bb)
CO: $33.05 (33.1 bb)
BTN: $101 (101 bb)
SB: $99 (99 bb)
Hero (BB): $202.10 (202.1 bb)
UTG+1: $99.50 (99.5 bb)
MP1: $97 (97 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with
3 folds, MP3 calls $1, CO folds, BTN raises to $4.50, SB folds, Hero raises to $15, MP3 folds, BTN calls $10.50
This is a standard spot to 3-bet, and is especially good because his calling range is likely wider than normal. This is because he knows I know that his button raising range is very wide, and thus I am likely 3-betting a much wider than normal range.
Flop: ($31.50)
(2 players)Hero bets $18, BTN raises to $36, Hero calls $18
Terrible flop for our hand. Our villain's range includes AA, AK and perhaps AQs, along with QQ, JJ, TT and perhaps some suited broadways like KQs, QJs etc. Honestly, I'm lost on what to do in this spot. If we check we are inviting the villain to bluff us off our hand, but by betting we very likely only get called by better hands + big draws. In either case, our villain is spewy postflop and might get crazy with QQ/JJ/TT etc. I decide to bet just over half the pot. The bet is a little bit on the weak side, which is perhaps a good thing if we want to induce a bluff out of the villain. We get minraised and have to make a very difficult decision.
Against a typical villain we need to fold in this spot, despite the line not making a ton of sense. Why would our villain minraise? Most AK/AQ hands should be calling here, as they almost never get value out of worse (the exception being AhKh). We know our villain is bad postflop, so applying such logic may not be valid. We also have our note which reads "minraise=bluff". The combination of these factors makes me decide to take this hand to showdown, as I believe our villain is full of shit enough of the time to make it +EV. He also shows up with KhQh or QhJh sometimes (rarely) as well. Note that once I call the flop minraise, I am 100% calling a turn shove from the villain who is pretty much committed to his bluff (or strange value line) at this point.
Turn: ($103.50)
(2 players)Hero checks, BTN bets $50 and is all-in, Hero calls $50
Snap call, as before we call the minraise we make the decision to take this hand to showdown. We should never, ever, be calling the flop raise if we aren't prepared to call here. Note that betting or shoving here would be terrible on our part. Our hand is essentially a bluff catcher at this point, and we need to check to allow the villain to follow through on his bluff. Otherwise we beat nothing, and make our line very, very -EV.
River: ($203.50)
(2 players, 1 is all-in)Results: $203.50 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed
(a pair of Kings) and won $200.50 ($99.50 net)BTN mucked
(a pair of Queens) and lost (-$101 net)Villain shows down a bluff with QQ, huzzah! That said, we're going to be up against AA, AhKh, or AhQh a fair bit in this hand, and even sometimes 99/88. Despite the wonky flop minraise, against most villains we need to fold. However, thanks to our note taken playing with the villain at 50NL, we use our read to pick off a bluff for his entire stack.
No comments:
Post a Comment