Monday, January 25, 2010

You Flopped HOW MANY Sets?

On Sunday I had intended to play a solid six hours of poker, but after the heavy volume of Thursday through Saturday my will to grind had been broken. I toyed with the idea of taking the day entirely off, but eventually settled on playing a short two hour session. It was a good thing that I did play, as during my session I flopped an absolutely absurd amount of sets.

For kicks, I pulled the data from HEM and found that I saw flops with 98 pocket pairs. Statistically, one should flop a set ~11.8% of the time. I flopped 22 sets, a 22.4% rate. I guess over a reasonably small sample size flopping that many sets isn't entirely ridiculous, but I felt like I was playing in God mode (though I did have to hero fold one of my sets to a fish). I ended the session +$727. Below is my favorite hand in which I am fortunate enough to have a 44/20 retard put in 175bbs with toppest pair against my top set. I can't decide if I really think that the turn overshove is optimal, but I definitely don't think it's that bad.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed)
CO ($103.65)
Button ($179.15)
SB ($100.50)
BB ($134.20)
Hero (UTG) ($177.60)
MP ($129.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 10, 10
Hero bets $4, 2 folds, Button calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($9.50) 10, 6, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $6.50, Button raises to $13, Hero raises to $41.50, Button calls $28.50

Turn: ($92.50) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $132.10 (All-In), Button calls $132.10

River: ($356.70) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $356.70 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 10, K (one pair, tens).
Hero had 10, 10 (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: Hero won $353.70


Finally, here is the hand where I make a semi-heroic fold, which is only so considering that the villain was a 35/20 fish. I definitely think c/fing the river is correct, the second best option being shoving myself for crying calls out of two pair hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed)
BB ($128.75)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($100)
Hero (MP1) ($100)
MP2 ($149.90)
CO ($100)
Button ($98.50)
SB ($96)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q, Q
2 folds, Hero bets $4, MP2 calls $4, 3 folds, BB calls $3

Flop: ($12.50) 7, Q, 10 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $9.50, MP2 calls $9.50, 1 fold

Turn: ($31.50) J (2 players)
Hero bets $21.50, MP2 calls $21.50

River: ($74.50) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $111, Hero folds

Total pot: $74.50 | Rake: $3

Results:
MP2 didn't show
Outcome: MP2 won $71.50

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