Comical runbad continued Thursday. I was two outed countless times, and one outed once against a megadonk (got AI on the turn with KcKx on a 3 club low board vs JdJh). Right at the end of my session however I did manage to figure out how to fade a two outer when AIPF: simply have a short stack AI with the two outs! It also helps to have the same suits as the big stack to kill what would otherwise be a guaranteed four flush. See below:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (8 handed)
Button ($23)
SB ($105.70)
BB ($37)
UTG ($66.30)
UTG+1 ($48)
Hero (MP1) ($200)
MP2 ($37)
CO ($225.30)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A
, A
2 folds, Hero bets $8, MP2 raises to $37 (All-In), CO calls $37, 3 folds, Hero raises to $200 (All-In), CO calls $163
Flop: ($440) 3
, 6
, 9 (3 players, 2 all-in)Turn: ($440) 3
(3 players, 2 all-in)River: ($440) 4
(3 players, 2 all-in)Total pot: $440 | Rake: $3
Results:
Hero had A
, A (two pair, Aces and threes).MP2 mucked K
, K (two pair, Kings and threes).CO mucked K
, K (two pair, Kings and threes).Outcome: Hero won $437
2 comments:
Nice blog. I had a question about expected value that is vexing me and thought you might have the experience to answer. I nit it up at FR micros and have run well below EV (17 bi's over 16k hands) but have a positive winrate. Should I expect to run below EV consistently since I'm a nit and nearly always ahead when the money goes in the middle? I guess I figure I'll have more suckouts against me than for me but I'm a little nervous about how far below EV I am.
Assuming you are referring to AIEV (all-in expected value), the calculation is purely based on expectation at the moment the final money goes in. Thus, getting it in more often ahead than behind or the reverse has no effect at all. The only "impurity" in the calculation comes occurs in a multiway pot when a player is already all-in on a previous street but it takes until a further street for other players involved to get their money in.
Post a Comment