Brags, Beats, and Variance

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	349,990
SNE Pace:	56810 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Suikoden Tierkreis (Nintendo DS)

In the spirit of the BBV forum over at 2+2:

Brags:
- Had a very good session on Friday, felt like I played very very well. The games conditions were also excellent. See graph below.


- On Friday I purchased some Oakley Flak Jacket sunglasses. Click the link to see them.

Beats:
- Despite taking $1.3k off the tables on Friday, I was actually still a few hundred bucks below all-in EV. Donkeys run so damn good against me.

- The officiating during Game One of the Flames/Blackhawks series was shameful. The OT goal was textbook goaltender interference, and was allowed by the same official who called off a Flames goal during the regular season for far less. Here is a video comparing the two incidents. Utter garbage. Kiprusoff also had his knees hacked out from under him by a Chicago forward earlier in the game while returning to the net from playing the puck, which went uncalled. I honestly hope the Flames send Roy out to obliterate Khabibulin in Game 2.

Variance:
- There should be a promotion on Pokerstars in the very near future, possibly containing a deposit bonus or double VPP week. Not the best time for double VPPs as the NHL playoffs just started, but anything to help me get further ahead of SNE pace is good.

- Mike Cammalleri was not suspended by the NHL. Of course, he didn't do anything even close to being worthy of a suspension, and the media was just being retarded.


Moving on, I'd like to post a hand from early on in my Friday session. I think the river presents a very interesting decision.

The villain in this hand is a 70/30 maniac.

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players

MP1: $446.45 (223.2 bb)
MP2: $212.65 (106.3 bb)
MP3: $398.15 (199.1 bb)
CO: $26.70 (13.4 bb)
BTN: $229 (114.5 bb)
SB: $186 (93 bb)
Hero (BB): $206.35 (103.2 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with Ts Th
MP1 calls $2, 5 folds, Hero raises to $10, MP1 calls $8

Flop: ($21) 8d 7s 2s (2 players)
Hero bets $19, MP1 calls $19

Standard.

Turn: ($59) 6h (2 players)
Hero bets $56, MP1 calls $56

Again, standard. He's a retard and is calling down with any pair/draw.

River: ($171) Qh (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $361.45 and is all-in, Hero calls $121.35 and is all-in

Here on the river we have many options. Draws have all bricked, and while there are some queens in his range (which is any two cards), we'll still have the best hand a lot of the time. We have right around 2/3rds of the pot left behind. We could:
A) Shove for value
This option seems ok, as our villain isn't going to fold a hand like 8x (he's a huge tard remember). However, we're going to be behind a reasonable amount of the time when called, and this will fold out all the draws that bricked.

B) Check to induce/call
I chose this option, because maniacs love to bluff shove the river. We'll be beat some of the time, but this way we stand a good chance of inducing value out of bricked draws, and he might even spazz shove single pair hands that we beat as well (which he did).

C) Check/fold (unless the bet is small enough to make it an easy call)
A lot of nits would do this, but our villain is a retard and we'll be good too often to consider folding once we show weakness imo.

D) Gaybet(say about $35)/fold
In this case we get a little value out of worse pairs, and surely get jammed on by hand that beats us, allowing us to get away. However, our villain is a complete maniac and is definitely capable of jamming air as well! Thus, we might in fact end up inducing a bluff we aren't prepared to call. Not a terrible option, but I don't think it's optimal.

E) Gaybet(say about $35)/call
I think this option sucks because while we may induce a bluff that we snap off, Villain may also just flat call with his 8x type hands that would also be calling our shove or shoving themselves if we check.

Results: $413.70 pot ($3.00 rake)
MP1 showed 3h 7h (a pair of Sevens) and lost (-$206.35 net)
Hero showed Ts Th (a pair of Tens) and won $410.70 ($204.35 net)

Perhaps I'm being results oriented, but I'm very happy with my decision on the river. I think shoving is probably also pretty decent.