I've been slacking on the updates lately, despite playing a ton of poker. I continued to run terribly all the way up to and including Monday of this week. In July I've had two independent 15+ BI downswings, with several smaller ones as well. Thankfully on Tuesday and Wednesday I managed to run average-ish (which felt smoking hot given my results lately). I'll be doing my monthly review tomorrow so prepare yourself for some serious ranting and graphs with ugly swings. I'm also already half way to clearing my first $4k FPP bonus, which is a nice plus. After that is cleared the vast majority of my roll will be in cash (though I should have 100k FPPs by the time I clear it, won't be too long until I buy another bonus!).
One last positive note is that I ordered my second 28" monitor. Bestbuy hiked up the price, so I got it online much cheaper. It should be in transit as we speak. Once it is here I'm going to work my way up to 24 tables ASAP. Thanks to my ability to put in huge volume now, if I play lots for the rest of the year it is feasible that I could clear the $2k, $3k, and $4k milestones this year. Since they do have a small FPP cost, the net worth of the three combined comes in at $6.6k free money. I'm not complaining.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Friday, July 25, 2008
Doomswitch
As I mentioned earlier, on the weekend I had a major downswing followed by a recovery on Monday. Unfortunately since then I have run into my worst ever downswing (which I have somewhat recovered from) but overall it has put a real damper on my month. Assuming I don't go on a big heater over the next few days, July will probably be my worst month ever from a variance perspective.
On the positive, I cleared the $240 deposit bonus and recently purchased my first $4k FPP bonus. You probably recall in my monthly reviews I add FPP value to my winnings for how much I've earned that month. These $4k bonuses are how I turn them to cash. I still most likely will set a new monthly earning record in July, but it will only be because I put in super sick volume. I run bad, I try to grind through.
On the positive, I cleared the $240 deposit bonus and recently purchased my first $4k FPP bonus. You probably recall in my monthly reviews I add FPP value to my winnings for how much I've earned that month. These $4k bonuses are how I turn them to cash. I still most likely will set a new monthly earning record in July, but it will only be because I put in super sick volume. I run bad, I try to grind through.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Back On Track
I played a 3k hand session last night, finishing +6 BI along with a nice chunk of rakeback. While it doesn't completely counterbalance my awful weekend, it certainly helps a bunch. I made several strong plays against regulars which worked out really well, but unfortunately I failed to scribble down the table name on any of them so I could pull back the HH to discuss (I'm too lazy to go through all my non-showdown hands on the session to find them).
I'm currently on pace to crack 100k hands on the month, as well as around 45k VPPs. Hypothetically, if I was able to put in an average of 90k VPPs/month playing full time, I could make Supernova Elite over a year. The potential of this is quite exciting, as Elite itself is worth roughly $100k in value. That is of course excluding the signficant winnings and normal rakeback one would earn on the way to elite.
Hopefully I can finish the month strong and set a new earnings record this month!
I'm currently on pace to crack 100k hands on the month, as well as around 45k VPPs. Hypothetically, if I was able to put in an average of 90k VPPs/month playing full time, I could make Supernova Elite over a year. The potential of this is quite exciting, as Elite itself is worth roughly $100k in value. That is of course excluding the signficant winnings and normal rakeback one would earn on the way to elite.
Hopefully I can finish the month strong and set a new earnings record this month!
Monday, July 21, 2008
Supernova + 2x Deposit Bonus = Good, Running Bad = Not Good
From Thursday through Sunday I played a monstrous 28k hands, hitting Supernova in the process. Here is the email from Stars confirming the status change that outlines the benefits:
Currently, the biggest change is that my rakeback 18 tabling $100NL changes from about $18/h to $25/h, so it's a nice boost. I may have mentioned this earlier, but Stars also created a new $4000 bonus for 250k FPPs, which essentially changes the FPP to $ conversion rate from 1.5c/FPP to 1.6c/FPP.
As part of their 2x July promotion, Stars also added a $240 max deposit bonus, which I have taken advantage of. What this boils down to is that over the next few days of playing I'll get a free $240 from Stars, which is much appreciated.
Unfortunately, the reason I played so many hands over the weekend is because I've been running absolutely terrible. On Saturday I had a 10-11 BI downswing. Any time I hit a flop the hand was a setup, regardless of if the villain was a typical reg or a complete drooler. After a recovery period of running decently on Sunday, I ended up making around $600 total on the weekend (1.5 BIs + 450 in rakeback, hah).
It is also worth mentioning that my Pokertracker 2 started freaking out over the weekend, likely because I hit the maximum DB size allowed for a Microsoft Access DB. I had tried to convert my DB to Postgres SQL in the past and ran into some technical issues, but after some research and installation of an older version of Postgres I managed to get it done. The result is that my DB size is no longer capped and performance has increased significantly.
I don't have any HHs to post, but the most memorable one from the weekend was in a blind versus blind battle against a 2+2 reg. He's very aggro and runs around 15/12. He raised to $4 from the small blind, I raised to $15 with AKs. He insta-shoved. We were both 150BB deep, but I still snap called. He showed A8o and went on in chat after about how I'm a nit who is never 3-betting light so he plays so bad. I agreed and called his play a "rookie mistake". Hopefully he spews at me again real soon.
Currently, the biggest change is that my rakeback 18 tabling $100NL changes from about $18/h to $25/h, so it's a nice boost. I may have mentioned this earlier, but Stars also created a new $4000 bonus for 250k FPPs, which essentially changes the FPP to $ conversion rate from 1.5c/FPP to 1.6c/FPP.
As part of their 2x July promotion, Stars also added a $240 max deposit bonus, which I have taken advantage of. What this boils down to is that over the next few days of playing I'll get a free $240 from Stars, which is much appreciated.
Unfortunately, the reason I played so many hands over the weekend is because I've been running absolutely terrible. On Saturday I had a 10-11 BI downswing. Any time I hit a flop the hand was a setup, regardless of if the villain was a typical reg or a complete drooler. After a recovery period of running decently on Sunday, I ended up making around $600 total on the weekend (1.5 BIs + 450 in rakeback, hah).
It is also worth mentioning that my Pokertracker 2 started freaking out over the weekend, likely because I hit the maximum DB size allowed for a Microsoft Access DB. I had tried to convert my DB to Postgres SQL in the past and ran into some technical issues, but after some research and installation of an older version of Postgres I managed to get it done. The result is that my DB size is no longer capped and performance has increased significantly.
I don't have any HHs to post, but the most memorable one from the weekend was in a blind versus blind battle against a 2+2 reg. He's very aggro and runs around 15/12. He raised to $4 from the small blind, I raised to $15 with AKs. He insta-shoved. We were both 150BB deep, but I still snap called. He showed A8o and went on in chat after about how I'm a nit who is never 3-betting light so he plays so bad. I agreed and called his play a "rookie mistake". Hopefully he spews at me again real soon.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Adjustments
This post is meant more as a mental note to myself for future reference than anything else. I'd like to tune up my game a bit to make myself more difficult to play against, and start to make adjustments that will be both beneficial now and near necessary at 200NL+. After some good reading, here are the things I've come up with:
(1)Start 3-bet bluffing MP/LP raises from non-nits with SCs when IP.
(2)When defending my blind versus regs stealing light, c/r flops with air more often. Also c/r TPTK hands to help balance the top my c/r range.
(3)4-bet bluff a little more against the regs who 3-bet like monkeys.
(1)Start 3-bet bluffing MP/LP raises from non-nits with SCs when IP.
(2)When defending my blind versus regs stealing light, c/r flops with air more often. Also c/r TPTK hands to help balance the top my c/r range.
(3)4-bet bluff a little more against the regs who 3-bet like monkeys.
Weekend Review / My Setup (new mouse!) / Strat HH
I played what has to be the most hands I've ever played over a weekend over the past 3 days, 20,500. 10.5k of these were on Saturday, which I'm certain is the most I've ever played in one day. The huge volume is partially a result of being comfortable 18 tabling now thanks to my new mouse (more on this below) and AHK scripts. As is typical for me, I also play lots when I run bad, which was the case this weekend. I was absolutely abysmal in heater versus cooler spots especially, but managed to finish the weekend up $630 in winnings and $290 rakeback for $930 total profit.
Like I mentioned above, I picked up a Logitech G9 Laser Gaming Mouse as for my sessions to be as efficient as possible, I require extra mouse buttons to which AHK scripts can be bound. Currently I have fold and call bound to the side buttons, with the mouse wheel moving the bet size slider 1 BB at a time. A mouse wheel click does a full PSB postflop, or 4BB + 1 per limper preflop (my standard non-steal position raise), while right clicking does pot preflop (3BB if unraised, my standard CO/BU open size) while doing 0.75 pot on the flop, and 0.66 on the turn and the river.
I also have configured StarsAutoRebuy, so I no longer have the hassle of needing to manually top off my stack. With all this new automation, I was able to instantly go from being strained playing 15-16 tables to being completely comfortable with 18. I can definitely see myself being able to play 24 with a second 28" monitor, which is exciting.
Since I've talked about it a lot, I figure I'll show a couple pictures of my new setup. The first is of my monitors. The left is obviously the 28", while the right is 22". The second picture is of my new mouse. The black and silver case in the picture contains a weighting set, as the mouse has a compartment to which weights can be added so that your mouse is just the right weight.
Here's the setup:
Finally, since there hasn't been a whole lot of strategy on the blog lately, I'll toss out a bone. Today I'm going to talk about turning medium strengths hands into bluffs. If you're a decent player you should immediately react to the preceding sentence, as it is normally to optimal to bluff with our air while seeking a cheap showdown with our medium strength hands. Turning a hand with showdown value into a bluff is rarely good, and not a necessary skill to succeed at micro/small stakes NLH. However, here's an example of a spot where I think doing so is best, because due to a mistake I make on the turn, the villain's range seems to be quite polarized and thus our medium strength hand may as well be air.
Villain in this hand is a 9/4 nit over 100 hands.
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
MP1: $16.15 (16.2 bb)
MP2: $16.50 (16.5 bb)
Hero (MP3): $104.85 (104.9 bb)
CO: $98.15 (98.2 bb)
BTN: $103 (103 bb)
SB: $19 (19 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
UTG: $119.40 (119.4 bb)
UTG+1: $105.95 (106 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $4, 2 folds, Hero calls $4, 4 folds
Nit villain raises from UTG+1. Our sample size on his stats is low, so we can't put too much weight into his 4% PFR as he could just have been card dead. However, he's obviously not a maniac or even LAG, so his range here is probably quite tight. I don't like 3-betting QQ in general unless the villain's calling range is wide enough to include smaller pairs and AQ, or there is a ton of dead money to pick up with a squeeze. Since this is almost surely not he case here, we simply call behind.
Flop: ($9.50)
(2 players)
UTG+1 bets $6, Hero calls $6
He bets, we call. Even if he's not raising AQ UTG+1, he surely shows up with JJ/TT here sometimes at the very least. At this point, our hand looks like a king or a flush draw. It could perhaps be a set, but due to the two-tone nature of the board we would likely be raising a set here.
Turn: ($21.50)
(2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $12, UTG+1 calls $12
My bet here is a clear mistake. I don't think I'm getting value from any worse or folding out any better (at least not without a big river bet to truly rep the made flush). After his call the villain's range is heavily polarized towards AK and AA. I doubt he has Ac or Kc as he would probably be raising if that were the case. KK would also surely be raising at this point.
River: ($45.50)
(2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $30, UTG+1 folds
Luckily for me, a four flush hits the board. Because I made the mistake of betting the turn, our villain's range has been narrowed significantly. We are almost always behind this range, so our hand has little to no showdown value and is practically air. Thus, this is surely a great time for us to fire a healthy bet when checked to, as the hands in our villain's range have a very hard time calling. It is also helpful to note that our villain rarely has the Ac in his hand here, as he would likely lead out if that was the case.
Results: $45.50 pot ($2.20 rake)
Hero mucked (a pair of Queens) and won $43.30 ($21.30 net)
Predictably, our villain folds what is very likely the best hand. It is possible he had JJ or TT here, but quite unprobable based on the betting.
Like I mentioned above, I picked up a Logitech G9 Laser Gaming Mouse as for my sessions to be as efficient as possible, I require extra mouse buttons to which AHK scripts can be bound. Currently I have fold and call bound to the side buttons, with the mouse wheel moving the bet size slider 1 BB at a time. A mouse wheel click does a full PSB postflop, or 4BB + 1 per limper preflop (my standard non-steal position raise), while right clicking does pot preflop (3BB if unraised, my standard CO/BU open size) while doing 0.75 pot on the flop, and 0.66 on the turn and the river.
I also have configured StarsAutoRebuy, so I no longer have the hassle of needing to manually top off my stack. With all this new automation, I was able to instantly go from being strained playing 15-16 tables to being completely comfortable with 18. I can definitely see myself being able to play 24 with a second 28" monitor, which is exciting.
Since I've talked about it a lot, I figure I'll show a couple pictures of my new setup. The first is of my monitors. The left is obviously the 28", while the right is 22". The second picture is of my new mouse. The black and silver case in the picture contains a weighting set, as the mouse has a compartment to which weights can be added so that your mouse is just the right weight.
Here's the setup:
Finally, since there hasn't been a whole lot of strategy on the blog lately, I'll toss out a bone. Today I'm going to talk about turning medium strengths hands into bluffs. If you're a decent player you should immediately react to the preceding sentence, as it is normally to optimal to bluff with our air while seeking a cheap showdown with our medium strength hands. Turning a hand with showdown value into a bluff is rarely good, and not a necessary skill to succeed at micro/small stakes NLH. However, here's an example of a spot where I think doing so is best, because due to a mistake I make on the turn, the villain's range seems to be quite polarized and thus our medium strength hand may as well be air.
Villain in this hand is a 9/4 nit over 100 hands.
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
MP1: $16.15 (16.2 bb)
MP2: $16.50 (16.5 bb)
Hero (MP3): $104.85 (104.9 bb)
CO: $98.15 (98.2 bb)
BTN: $103 (103 bb)
SB: $19 (19 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
UTG: $119.40 (119.4 bb)
UTG+1: $105.95 (106 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $4, 2 folds, Hero calls $4, 4 folds
Nit villain raises from UTG+1. Our sample size on his stats is low, so we can't put too much weight into his 4% PFR as he could just have been card dead. However, he's obviously not a maniac or even LAG, so his range here is probably quite tight. I don't like 3-betting QQ in general unless the villain's calling range is wide enough to include smaller pairs and AQ, or there is a ton of dead money to pick up with a squeeze. Since this is almost surely not he case here, we simply call behind.
Flop: ($9.50)
(2 players)UTG+1 bets $6, Hero calls $6
He bets, we call. Even if he's not raising AQ UTG+1, he surely shows up with JJ/TT here sometimes at the very least. At this point, our hand looks like a king or a flush draw. It could perhaps be a set, but due to the two-tone nature of the board we would likely be raising a set here.
Turn: ($21.50)
(2 players)UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $12, UTG+1 calls $12
My bet here is a clear mistake. I don't think I'm getting value from any worse or folding out any better (at least not without a big river bet to truly rep the made flush). After his call the villain's range is heavily polarized towards AK and AA. I doubt he has Ac or Kc as he would probably be raising if that were the case. KK would also surely be raising at this point.
River: ($45.50)
(2 players)UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $30, UTG+1 folds
Luckily for me, a four flush hits the board. Because I made the mistake of betting the turn, our villain's range has been narrowed significantly. We are almost always behind this range, so our hand has little to no showdown value and is practically air. Thus, this is surely a great time for us to fire a healthy bet when checked to, as the hands in our villain's range have a very hard time calling. It is also helpful to note that our villain rarely has the Ac in his hand here, as he would likely lead out if that was the case.
Results: $45.50 pot ($2.20 rake)
Hero mucked
(a pair of Queens) and won $43.30 ($21.30 net)Predictably, our villain folds what is very likely the best hand. It is possible he had JJ or TT here, but quite unprobable based on the betting.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Efficiency
I played my first long session on my new hardware last night. It lasted around 3.5 hours and encompassed 4.5k hands. It was fairly dissapointing up until the end, when I went on a half hour heater and ended up +4BI, along with a good amount of FPPs obviously.
My mouse hand was feeling a little worn out after the session, so I figure it's time to take some steps to make sure I'm being as efficient as possible. I'm going to download and configure AHK (autohotkey) as well as the bet pot script. I think I'll pick up a new mouse, as well as a wrist rest for my home mouse. With actions bound to additional mouse keys and a higher sensitivity setting, I think I'll be ok getting to 18 tables.
My mouse hand was feeling a little worn out after the session, so I figure it's time to take some steps to make sure I'm being as efficient as possible. I'm going to download and configure AHK (autohotkey) as well as the bet pot script. I think I'll pick up a new mouse, as well as a wrist rest for my home mouse. With actions bound to additional mouse keys and a higher sensitivity setting, I think I'll be ok getting to 18 tables.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Awww yeah! (Monitors, Chairs, and Heaters, Oh My!)
Things from yesterday that make me happy:
(1) Internet connection was stable for the first time in a week.
(2) Bought a beautiful 28" LCD monitor, which can handle 12 tables at a time. You don't understand just how large a 28" monitor is until you put it beside a 22". I made some adjustments to my HuD (increased font sizes mainly, as well as adding a couple new stats) and I am very excited about my ability to work up to 18 tabling by the end of the month.
(3) Bought a very nice leather office chair which is the right height for my desk (old chair was not) and is a huge comfort upgrade. Very happy with the purchase.
(4) Bought a new wrist rest for my keyboard. The old one was probably 10-12 years old and held together mostly by hockey tape. It served me well, but it was time for it to be put down.
(5) Played a short session which turned into a +6.5 BI heater. Won what I think is my largest pot ever (~350 BB, still not that big, I know). More detail on this below.
As I mentioned in (5), my short session which was designed as a test run for the new monitor turned out to be very profitable. I ran very well in terms of equity, and flopped the nuts 175BB deep versus a donkey. Here is my EV graph for the session:
Here is the hand history for what is probably the biggest pot I've won so far online (pretty sure I've scooped a ~$400-$500 pot live). I don't have the stats of the villain offhand, but he was definitely something like a 40/10 drooler over 50ish hands.
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
UTG+1: $100 (100 bb)
MP1: $97.50 (97.5 bb)
MP2: $128.55 (128.6 bb)
Hero (MP3): $197.45 (197.5 bb)
CO: $173.35 (173.4 bb)
BTN: $128.40 (128.4 bb)
SB: $118.40 (118.4 bb)
BB: $86.50 (86.5 bb)
UTG: $100 (100 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with Qs Js
4 folds, Hero raises to $4, CO calls $4, 3 folds
QJs is a standard raise from the HJ for me. Note the stack size on the donkey who calls.
Flop: ($9.50) Kd 9c Ts (2 players)
Hero bets $7, CO raises to $29, Hero raises to $51, CO raises to $169.35 and is all-in, Hero calls $118.35
This is the ultimate gin flop for my hand. No flush potential to scare people away (or give them significant equity). When I bet out I was praying the donkey had a king, since I was pretty sure he'd have difficulty folding. After he raised I wasn't quite sure what to do, but I figured that since the turn could bring scare cards which could slow the action, I'd minraise to try to induce a shove. I minraise, he shoves, and I get 175BBs in with the nuts as a 82% favorite.
Turn: ($348.20) 7d (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($348.20) 4s (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn and river both blank, and I scoop.
Results: $348.20 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Qs Js (a straight, Nine to King) and won $345.20 ($171.85 net)
CO mucked 9d Ks (two pairs, Kings and Nines) and lost (-$173.35 net)
Good stuff!
(1) Internet connection was stable for the first time in a week.
(2) Bought a beautiful 28" LCD monitor, which can handle 12 tables at a time. You don't understand just how large a 28" monitor is until you put it beside a 22". I made some adjustments to my HuD (increased font sizes mainly, as well as adding a couple new stats) and I am very excited about my ability to work up to 18 tabling by the end of the month.
(3) Bought a very nice leather office chair which is the right height for my desk (old chair was not) and is a huge comfort upgrade. Very happy with the purchase.
(4) Bought a new wrist rest for my keyboard. The old one was probably 10-12 years old and held together mostly by hockey tape. It served me well, but it was time for it to be put down.
(5) Played a short session which turned into a +6.5 BI heater. Won what I think is my largest pot ever (~350 BB, still not that big, I know). More detail on this below.
As I mentioned in (5), my short session which was designed as a test run for the new monitor turned out to be very profitable. I ran very well in terms of equity, and flopped the nuts 175BB deep versus a donkey. Here is my EV graph for the session:
Here is the hand history for what is probably the biggest pot I've won so far online (pretty sure I've scooped a ~$400-$500 pot live). I don't have the stats of the villain offhand, but he was definitely something like a 40/10 drooler over 50ish hands.
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
UTG+1: $100 (100 bb)
MP1: $97.50 (97.5 bb)
MP2: $128.55 (128.6 bb)
Hero (MP3): $197.45 (197.5 bb)
CO: $173.35 (173.4 bb)
BTN: $128.40 (128.4 bb)
SB: $118.40 (118.4 bb)
BB: $86.50 (86.5 bb)
UTG: $100 (100 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with Qs Js
4 folds, Hero raises to $4, CO calls $4, 3 folds
QJs is a standard raise from the HJ for me. Note the stack size on the donkey who calls.
Flop: ($9.50) Kd 9c Ts (2 players)
Hero bets $7, CO raises to $29, Hero raises to $51, CO raises to $169.35 and is all-in, Hero calls $118.35
This is the ultimate gin flop for my hand. No flush potential to scare people away (or give them significant equity). When I bet out I was praying the donkey had a king, since I was pretty sure he'd have difficulty folding. After he raised I wasn't quite sure what to do, but I figured that since the turn could bring scare cards which could slow the action, I'd minraise to try to induce a shove. I minraise, he shoves, and I get 175BBs in with the nuts as a 82% favorite.
Turn: ($348.20) 7d (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($348.20) 4s (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn and river both blank, and I scoop.
Results: $348.20 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Qs Js (a straight, Nine to King) and won $345.20 ($171.85 net)
CO mucked 9d Ks (two pairs, Kings and Nines) and lost (-$173.35 net)
Good stuff!
Monday, July 7, 2008
Internet Instability + Running Bad
Since Thursday evening, my Shaw internet connection has frequently decided to spike to 50%+ packet loss or lose connectivity entirely, making poker virtually unplayable most of the time. Somehow I still managed to fit in 11.5k hands between Friday and Sunday, though I would have likely hit 20k had there been no internet issues.
Unfortunately for me, when I managed to play I ran like shit. As you'll see in the EV/all-inluck graphs below, I was $650 below expectation, $450 of which when I was all-in. A strange anomaly is that I had zero set over set or AA versus KK hands the entire weekend, so I was completely neutral in the "heater vs cooler" variety of luck. What could have easily been my first $2k weekend instead resulted in a profit of $900 ($600 in winnings plus $300 in FPPs). Yes, I realize I'm bitching about making $900 from my hobby over a long weekend. Perhaps my perspective needs changing, but relative to expectation this was a poor result.
Here are my EV and luck graphs from Friday through Sunday. For some reason it didn't occur to me to include Thursday in the graphs, I suppose I forgot it was a long weekend.
I have someone from Shaw dropping by today, hopefully my internet issues can get resolved promptly. They are on a short leash at the moment, if no progress is made today I'll see how quickly Telus or Teksavvy can go about getting me a Dry DSL line.
Unfortunately for me, when I managed to play I ran like shit. As you'll see in the EV/all-inluck graphs below, I was $650 below expectation, $450 of which when I was all-in. A strange anomaly is that I had zero set over set or AA versus KK hands the entire weekend, so I was completely neutral in the "heater vs cooler" variety of luck. What could have easily been my first $2k weekend instead resulted in a profit of $900 ($600 in winnings plus $300 in FPPs). Yes, I realize I'm bitching about making $900 from my hobby over a long weekend. Perhaps my perspective needs changing, but relative to expectation this was a poor result.
Here are my EV and luck graphs from Friday through Sunday. For some reason it didn't occur to me to include Thursday in the graphs, I suppose I forgot it was a long weekend.
I have someone from Shaw dropping by today, hopefully my internet issues can get resolved promptly. They are on a short leash at the moment, if no progress is made today I'll see how quickly Telus or Teksavvy can go about getting me a Dry DSL line.
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Minor Adjustments
A minor tweak I've made to my game recently is lowering my raise size from the CO/BU/SB when folded to. I picked this up from a Johnny Everypot video on 2P2, and the reasoning behind why it is good to do so makes sense. The new raise size has also made me a little more comfortable playing what has been a 15/12 style lately.
My session last night ended up pretty average (+1.5BIs, +$75 in FPPs), mainly due to being set over set in a $370 pot. D'oh. I had one particularly interesting hand history I thought I'd share, as it is a great example of how good hand reading can pay off.
Villains in this hand:
UTG is a fish, I don't have his stats offhand.
MP3 is a TAG regular, who runs something like 14/12. He is definitely capable of making moves.
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
BB: $144.65 (144.7 bb)
UTG: $107.55 (107.6 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): $100 (100 bb)
MP1: $19.55 (19.6 bb)
MP2: $18.65 (18.7 bb)
MP3: $100 (100 bb)
CO: $70.10 (70.1 bb)
BTN: $126.20 (126.2 bb)
SB: $118.95 (119 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG+1 with
UTG raises to $5, Hero calls $5, 2 folds, MP3 calls $5, 4 folds
I suppose I could have 3-bet light here to isolate the fish, but I much prefer a call. Standard.
Flop: ($16.50)
(3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $8, MP3 calls $8, UTG folds
When I bet out here, I expected to take the pot down right there unless MP3 has a set, in which case I get raised. It's also possible MP3 could have a big draw or two pair he would likely raise as well. The cold call was confusing, and in my head weighted his range heavily towards 55 and 99.
Turn: ($32.50)
(2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks
In hindsight, I should almost certainly be taking a bet-fold line here, as based on the flop action I'm very probably ahead with the villain still having some draw equity. However, he very well may fold 55 or 99 to a bet here (which isn't bad, because those hands have a fair number of outs). Checking to induce a bluff on the river (when the straight doesn't complete) isn't a terrible option, but I wasn't thinking about it at this point. It's also worth noting that while the third heart came, it being an ace reduces the chances that villain was drawing to a flush.
River: ($32.50)
(2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $24, Hero calls $24
At this point I timed down to put the hand together. I really should have taken more time on the turn and realized that a bet/fold line is best (it usually is), but instead I opted to figure the hand out here. Better late than never I guess. The action was completely consistent with the villain having a pair with a busted straight draw. He could also show up with a hand like KhQh here. Since we only need to be good ~30% of the time to make this call +EV, and I think this is a bluff ~50% of the time, I feel this is a pretty clear call. Note also that the villain's bet was fairly large, which is typically of a bluff that they don't want to be called.
Results: $80.50 pot ($3 rake)
MP3 showed
(a pair of Sevens) and lost (-$37 net)
Hero showed (a pair of Tens) and won $77.50 ($40.50 net)
Villain did end up having a pair + straight draw, but not the hand I was expecting. Quite a loose call preflop, with a standard bluff at the end which we were able to snap off due to our hand reading skills.
My session last night ended up pretty average (+1.5BIs, +$75 in FPPs), mainly due to being set over set in a $370 pot. D'oh. I had one particularly interesting hand history I thought I'd share, as it is a great example of how good hand reading can pay off.
Villains in this hand:
UTG is a fish, I don't have his stats offhand.
MP3 is a TAG regular, who runs something like 14/12. He is definitely capable of making moves.
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
BB: $144.65 (144.7 bb)
UTG: $107.55 (107.6 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): $100 (100 bb)
MP1: $19.55 (19.6 bb)
MP2: $18.65 (18.7 bb)
MP3: $100 (100 bb)
CO: $70.10 (70.1 bb)
BTN: $126.20 (126.2 bb)
SB: $118.95 (119 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG+1 with
UTG raises to $5, Hero calls $5, 2 folds, MP3 calls $5, 4 folds
I suppose I could have 3-bet light here to isolate the fish, but I much prefer a call. Standard.
Flop: ($16.50)
(3 players)UTG checks, Hero bets $8, MP3 calls $8, UTG folds
When I bet out here, I expected to take the pot down right there unless MP3 has a set, in which case I get raised. It's also possible MP3 could have a big draw or two pair he would likely raise as well. The cold call was confusing, and in my head weighted his range heavily towards 55 and 99.
Turn: ($32.50)
(2 players)Hero checks, MP3 checks
In hindsight, I should almost certainly be taking a bet-fold line here, as based on the flop action I'm very probably ahead with the villain still having some draw equity. However, he very well may fold 55 or 99 to a bet here (which isn't bad, because those hands have a fair number of outs). Checking to induce a bluff on the river (when the straight doesn't complete) isn't a terrible option, but I wasn't thinking about it at this point. It's also worth noting that while the third heart came, it being an ace reduces the chances that villain was drawing to a flush.
River: ($32.50)
(2 players)Hero checks, MP3 bets $24, Hero calls $24
At this point I timed down to put the hand together. I really should have taken more time on the turn and realized that a bet/fold line is best (it usually is), but instead I opted to figure the hand out here. Better late than never I guess. The action was completely consistent with the villain having a pair with a busted straight draw. He could also show up with a hand like KhQh here. Since we only need to be good ~30% of the time to make this call +EV, and I think this is a bluff ~50% of the time, I feel this is a pretty clear call. Note also that the villain's bet was fairly large, which is typically of a bluff that they don't want to be called.
Results: $80.50 pot ($3 rake)
MP3 showed
(a pair of Sevens) and lost (-$37 net)Hero showed
(a pair of Tens) and won $77.50 ($40.50 net)Villain did end up having a pair + straight draw, but not the hand I was expecting. Quite a loose call preflop, with a standard bluff at the end which we were able to snap off due to our hand reading skills.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Gifts and Curses
As I sort of assumed, the Double VPP week is very nearly as much of a curse as it is a blessing. The extremely high rakeback encourages regulars to try to play as many hands as possible, which reduces the quality of the games significantly.
Despite the poor games, I put in a 3.5k hand session last night earning myself 2.5k VPPs (6.25k FPPs, ~$94 in rakeback) and ended up +4.25 BIs thanks to running well. I was focused on implementing the changes mentioned in my July Goals post, and found myself being more aggressive from position, and stealing the blinds more. The game environment was prime for this, as blind stealing is most effective against nitty regulars.
I've also found myself both bluffing and making thin value bets more often on the river lately. As a result of this combined with the rock garden environment, my $ won without showdown (which has commonly been negative throughout my poker career so far, which is typical for a TAG at micro/small stakes) was significantly positive. While I'm not too concerned about keeping this trend going (as even at $100NL, much of a TAG's income comes from valuetowning fish who don't fold and go to showdown), I find it encouraging that I'm picking good spots to make regs fold the best hand.
I intend to try to play another ~3-4k hand session tonight, despite the certainty that the games will suck again. Hopefully they improve a bunch by Friday (an American holiday) which I have off from work.
Despite the poor games, I put in a 3.5k hand session last night earning myself 2.5k VPPs (6.25k FPPs, ~$94 in rakeback) and ended up +4.25 BIs thanks to running well. I was focused on implementing the changes mentioned in my July Goals post, and found myself being more aggressive from position, and stealing the blinds more. The game environment was prime for this, as blind stealing is most effective against nitty regulars.
I've also found myself both bluffing and making thin value bets more often on the river lately. As a result of this combined with the rock garden environment, my $ won without showdown (which has commonly been negative throughout my poker career so far, which is typical for a TAG at micro/small stakes) was significantly positive. While I'm not too concerned about keeping this trend going (as even at $100NL, much of a TAG's income comes from valuetowning fish who don't fold and go to showdown), I find it encouraging that I'm picking good spots to make regs fold the best hand.
I intend to try to play another ~3-4k hand session tonight, despite the certainty that the games will suck again. Hopefully they improve a bunch by Friday (an American holiday) which I have off from work.
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Double VPP week!!1!11!!one!1!
Pokerstars launched a "2x" promotion today which begins with double VPPs from July 1st to July 6th. As this effectively puts my rakeback in the 50% range, I am going to grind my ass off this week. Since I have Friday off of work, I think I can probably play ~25k hands before the promotion ends if I go completely nuts and remain motivated. This will earn me around 19k VPPs, which is half of the remaining total I need to attain Supernova for the year.
This should be an interesting month indeed.
This should be an interesting month indeed.
July Goals
Play 60,000 hands
It seems I always underestimate how much I'll be able to play during a month, so I'm setting my most aggressive goal yet in terms of hands played. I reached this total last month, so if I stay motivated it is certainly achievable.
Get a new desk and a new monitor, be comfortable 15+ tabling
This is by far the most significant goal for this month, as it requires me to get off my ass and do some serious work dismantling my old desk, buying a replacement, and picking up a new monitor. I'm thinking I'll go with a 27" Samsung, which should be able to house 12 tables on its own I believe (though I may have to reduce table size slightly compared to my current setup). If this is the case, I will be able to go up to 18 tables with the new monitor + one of my current 22" screens, and expand to 24 when I add a second 27". For this month however, I will consider it a success if I am playing 15 tables as my standard by August 1st.
Open up in position, steal more blinds, and 3-bet bluff regulars occasionally
My VPIP/PFR for June was similar to that of May, sitting around 13.5/10.5. My ATS jumped a small amount to around 26%, but I would like to increase this further. In July, I would like to play 14/11 poker with an ATS of %30+. I believe doing so will help increase my winrate a fair bit.
Stop being a wimp in the big blind
Though I don't have them offhand, I think my stats from the BB on the month were something like 12/5. Raising limpers and seeing flops with initiative is important, and by not raising hands like small pairs/broadways out of the BB, I am probably missing out on some easy money. I would like my BB stats to be something like 12/7 in July.
Those are my goals for the month. Here is hoping I pick right up in July where I left off at the end of June!
It seems I always underestimate how much I'll be able to play during a month, so I'm setting my most aggressive goal yet in terms of hands played. I reached this total last month, so if I stay motivated it is certainly achievable.
Get a new desk and a new monitor, be comfortable 15+ tabling
This is by far the most significant goal for this month, as it requires me to get off my ass and do some serious work dismantling my old desk, buying a replacement, and picking up a new monitor. I'm thinking I'll go with a 27" Samsung, which should be able to house 12 tables on its own I believe (though I may have to reduce table size slightly compared to my current setup). If this is the case, I will be able to go up to 18 tables with the new monitor + one of my current 22" screens, and expand to 24 when I add a second 27". For this month however, I will consider it a success if I am playing 15 tables as my standard by August 1st.
Open up in position, steal more blinds, and 3-bet bluff regulars occasionally
My VPIP/PFR for June was similar to that of May, sitting around 13.5/10.5. My ATS jumped a small amount to around 26%, but I would like to increase this further. In July, I would like to play 14/11 poker with an ATS of %30+. I believe doing so will help increase my winrate a fair bit.
Stop being a wimp in the big blind
Though I don't have them offhand, I think my stats from the BB on the month were something like 12/5. Raising limpers and seeing flops with initiative is important, and by not raising hands like small pairs/broadways out of the BB, I am probably missing out on some easy money. I would like my BB stats to be something like 12/7 in July.
Those are my goals for the month. Here is hoping I pick right up in July where I left off at the end of June!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
