Positive Life Variance, Negative Poker Variance

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	368,559
SNE Pace:	58,939 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	TBA

I woke up on Thursday to an email congratulating me on winning the draw to purchase tickets to Game 6 of the Flames/Blackhawks series on Monday. The remaining tickets were very much polarized in quality however; My options were to either sit in the nosebleeds for cheap, or pay out my ass for some of the very best seats in the Dome. Naturally, I chose the latter. I'll be sitting in the first row of the second deck (this row and only this row is considered "gold" level seating, and in the same price level as club seating in the lower bowl), in the attack zone right behind the goal. Hopefully the Flames manage to win Game 5 and can close out the series in 6.

Poker on the day was brutal. I played a ton of hands for a Thursday, and played very very well. However, I ended up $750 down in all-in EV. Here's the utterly disgusting graph:

If you had 2 outs against me on the flop today, you were a 9:1 favorite instead of a 9:1 underdog. Riggedity.

Other than that, it looks like the WSOP Main Event is going to be a go, and I might have a prop bet against another 100nl reg going in May for total money taken off the tables. I'm very certain I am +EV in such a bet, though he is a solid player.

Decisions, Decisions

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	361,658
SNE Pace:	57,518 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	TBA

To start, Shaw and Telus both suck very, very badly. Shaw apparently thinks that consistent packet loss issues are acceptable (been going on for over two weeks), and Telus can't even seem to turn on the damn ADSL.

With that out of the way, I've been slacking in the poker department lately due to connection instability and playoff hockey. Thankfully I put in a somewhat high volume session today, and despite running kinda poorly (3 KK vs AA - 0 wins; 1 AA vs KK - 0 wins) ended up taking $500 off the tables.

More importantly, Stars launched a new promotion today. Along with a 20% up to $600 deposit bonus, which I have already taken advantage of to net a free $120, there is a far more interesting portion. Any player whom obtains a World Series of Poker Main Event Package from Stars (retail value $12k) and agrees to the Terms and Conditions to wear Stars gear at the event, receives 100k VPPs (no, you do not receive the FPPs you would normally earn from generating these VPPs). What this essentially boils down to for me is that should I choose to play the WSOP Main Event this year, I would essentially earn myself an additional month off on my way to SNE. Of course, it also means I would generate $5.6k less rakeback in addition to what I would have taken off the tables in that month or so of playing.

However, given that I'm actually pretty good at poker, I am very likely +EV (or at worst, even EV) at the ME. If I was to cash, I'd book a nice tournament score along with a month off. It's just such an amazing deal. Should I fail to cash, it's $12k I don't pay tax on ($10.3k buyin, $1.7k travel expenses), a Vegas vacation + tourney experience, and still an additional month off. I'll have to think on it for a bit, but my gut feeling is that this is too good an offer to pass up. Plus, if I don't feel like slacking for that month, I could put in whatever volume I want with SNE God-level rakeback.

Finally, I finished Suikoden Tierkreis tonight. It was a very solid offering, though it was severely lacking in the difficulty department. I definitely feel like I got my monies worth though. Not certain what I'll be playing next... maybe Chrono Trigger DS?

Brags, Beats, and Variance

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	349,990
SNE Pace:	56810 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Suikoden Tierkreis (Nintendo DS)

In the spirit of the BBV forum over at 2+2:

Brags:
- Had a very good session on Friday, felt like I played very very well. The games conditions were also excellent. See graph below.


- On Friday I purchased some Oakley Flak Jacket sunglasses. Click the link to see them.

Beats:
- Despite taking $1.3k off the tables on Friday, I was actually still a few hundred bucks below all-in EV. Donkeys run so damn good against me.

- The officiating during Game One of the Flames/Blackhawks series was shameful. The OT goal was textbook goaltender interference, and was allowed by the same official who called off a Flames goal during the regular season for far less. Here is a video comparing the two incidents. Utter garbage. Kiprusoff also had his knees hacked out from under him by a Chicago forward earlier in the game while returning to the net from playing the puck, which went uncalled. I honestly hope the Flames send Roy out to obliterate Khabibulin in Game 2.

Variance:
- There should be a promotion on Pokerstars in the very near future, possibly containing a deposit bonus or double VPP week. Not the best time for double VPPs as the NHL playoffs just started, but anything to help me get further ahead of SNE pace is good.

- Mike Cammalleri was not suspended by the NHL. Of course, he didn't do anything even close to being worthy of a suspension, and the media was just being retarded.


Moving on, I'd like to post a hand from early on in my Friday session. I think the river presents a very interesting decision.

The villain in this hand is a 70/30 maniac.

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players

MP1: $446.45 (223.2 bb)
MP2: $212.65 (106.3 bb)
MP3: $398.15 (199.1 bb)
CO: $26.70 (13.4 bb)
BTN: $229 (114.5 bb)
SB: $186 (93 bb)
Hero (BB): $206.35 (103.2 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with Ts Th
MP1 calls $2, 5 folds, Hero raises to $10, MP1 calls $8

Flop: ($21) 8d 7s 2s (2 players)
Hero bets $19, MP1 calls $19

Standard.

Turn: ($59) 6h (2 players)
Hero bets $56, MP1 calls $56

Again, standard. He's a retard and is calling down with any pair/draw.

River: ($171) Qh (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $361.45 and is all-in, Hero calls $121.35 and is all-in

Here on the river we have many options. Draws have all bricked, and while there are some queens in his range (which is any two cards), we'll still have the best hand a lot of the time. We have right around 2/3rds of the pot left behind. We could:
A) Shove for value
This option seems ok, as our villain isn't going to fold a hand like 8x (he's a huge tard remember). However, we're going to be behind a reasonable amount of the time when called, and this will fold out all the draws that bricked.

B) Check to induce/call
I chose this option, because maniacs love to bluff shove the river. We'll be beat some of the time, but this way we stand a good chance of inducing value out of bricked draws, and he might even spazz shove single pair hands that we beat as well (which he did).

C) Check/fold (unless the bet is small enough to make it an easy call)
A lot of nits would do this, but our villain is a retard and we'll be good too often to consider folding once we show weakness imo.

D) Gaybet(say about $35)/fold
In this case we get a little value out of worse pairs, and surely get jammed on by hand that beats us, allowing us to get away. However, our villain is a complete maniac and is definitely capable of jamming air as well! Thus, we might in fact end up inducing a bluff we aren't prepared to call. Not a terrible option, but I don't think it's optimal.

E) Gaybet(say about $35)/call
I think this option sucks because while we may induce a bluff that we snap off, Villain may also just flat call with his 8x type hands that would also be calling our shove or shoving themselves if we check.

Results: $413.70 pot ($3.00 rake)
MP1 showed 3h 7h (a pair of Sevens) and lost (-$206.35 net)
Hero showed Ts Th (a pair of Tens) and won $410.70 ($204.35 net)

Perhaps I'm being results oriented, but I'm very happy with my decision on the river. I think shoving is probably also pretty decent.

Sometimes You Just Need Something To Feel Good About

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	334,016
SNE Pace:	57276 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Suikoden Tierkreis (Nintendo DS)

I had a pretty shitty week that turned around mightily on Saturday. Here's some random thoughts:

- Shaw is an incredibly incompetent ISP and I will have Telus ADSL within a few days (they now even offer a dry loop, huzzah). The terrible connection has caused no end of frustration for both myself and my poker playing roommate for the past 10 days or so. The worst part is, after my hours of troubleshooting I can guarantee the issue is Shaw's own traffic shaping not working as intended.

- The Flames injury issues combined with choking away the division was so very painful to endure. Despite the Saturday win over the Oilers meaning nothing it built some well needed momentum, saw Cammy get his game back, and McElhinny book his first NHL win (in a great performance). Seeing how happy the team was for the rookie netminder was heart warming to say the least. We may not stack up well against Chicago and Khabibulin is likely the antichrist, but don't count the Flames out yet.

- The RSA token for my Pokerstars account came in. Consider my account 100% hack proof. You'll have to mug me first if you want to hack my account! Well worth the $90 worth of FPPs for 5 years of protection.

- I ran poorly during the middle of the week, and absolutely god awful on Friday. Thankfully Saturday is what I believe to be my biggest day ever in profit, totaling around $1.9k US. I cashed in the freeroll donkament for $90, earned around $280 in rakeback, and took the rest off the tables.

- If anyone suggests that online poker is dying, they weren't playing this Saturday. Perhaps the highest concentration of superdonks I've seen in some time.

The graph for my week is below. The vast majority of the upswing at the end is from Saturday.

You Know You're Growing Up When...

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	311,309
SNE Pace:	53749 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Suikoden Tierkreis (Nintendo DS)

You know you're growing up when you are excited about the arrival of a vacuum cleaner. To be fair however, said vacuum is a pimp Dyson that with accessories set me back $600. Initial tests have shown that it works wonders and is well worth the money.

The weekend so far has been quite solid in terms of poker. I haven't yet had a poor day in April (granted, only 4 days) so hopefully I can keep things up. Here is my Friday + Saturday graph:

Unfortunately, I've had some Internet issues that have likely cut into my profits marginally (and caused severe frustration). Outgoing packets are intermittently get lost, sometimes for periods of up to thirty seconds. After some diagnostic work I have ruled out any problem with my router, so it is either the cable connection/cable modem or an issue on Shaw's side. Unsurprisingly, Shaw support was useless in resolving the matter. Hopefully things clear up on their own - a friend who lives in the area was complaining about his Shaw Internet recently, so perhaps the problem is widespread and caused by the Shaw infrastructure in our area.

Milestone #2

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	302,267
SNE Pace:	50,187 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Suikoden Tierkreis (Nintendo DS)

On Monday I cleared my second Milestone Bonus of the year, picking up $2.2k in free money from the Pokerstars VIP program. The first two days of April have seen some solid sessions, and while I haven't played a ton of volume I've run well and my winrate so far reflects that. Graph is below:


Earlier this evening I gave a short lecture on Renton's ABCD theorem to two of my informal students whom were by (to be fair one lives in the basement). I then did some hands on coaching with one of said students while he 12 tabled a profitable 25nl session. I will be once again staking him for a period of time and hopefully this arrangement ends up being +EV as the previous two with him have.

Finally, I should mention I'm around three quarters through Suikoden Tierkries, a series spinoff for the DS. Spinoffs tend to disappoint, but this one does not. It is quite possibly the best original handheld RPG produced to date (obviously, remakes of games like Chrono Trigger and FF6 for handhelds aren't fair competition). Looking forward to seeing how it ends.

March Review - That's More Like It

After a January I could only describe as "mediocre at best" and an awful February in which I didn't even crack five figures of profit, it wouldn't take much to make March feel like a decent month. March started quite poorly, and originally felt a lot like February. Around halfway through the month however, my doomswitch was somehow turned off and I experienced a very sexy upswing of around 50 buyins over a timeframe of a week. I then ran pretty average for awhile, followed by several straight days of February-esque ugliness, before finally ending on a nice upswing over the last few hours of play.

I also cleared my first milestone bonus during the first couple days of the month (amounting to $1.2k in free cash) and earned 101,723 VPPs, which keeps me well ahead of SNE pace. I was hoping to do 105k total VPPs on the month, but got kind of lazy over the final four days.

Here's the graph:


The bottom line:
$10569.30 winnings
+$5696.49 rakeback (101,723 VPPs * 3.5 FPPs/VPP * 1.6c/FPP)
+$1200.00 milestone bonus ($2k - $800 worth of FPPs to purchase)
----------
$17,465.79 USD total profit, at current exchange rate this amounts to ~$22,052 CDN

Note that this total finally breaks my highest monthly profit record which was previously set in October of 2008, when I was playing part time. It was quite discouraging not to break it in January or February, but at the very least it's nice to have it out of the way now.

During my last session of the month, I ended up around 150bb deep with a superdonk (he was running around 50/30 over 50+ hands) at a 200nl table, and won one of my biggest pots ever. It was extremely sick since he showed up with the absolute top of his range (which I was really scared of at the time as donks love to limp reraise AA), but I managed to spike a K and avoid an AA vs KK cooler. Here's the hand history:

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
CO: $264.85 (132.4 bb)
BTN: $206.05 (103 bb)
SB: $276.30 (138.2 bb)
Hero (BB): $393.60 (196.8 bb)
MP1: $299.95 (150 bb)
MP2: $203 (101.5 bb)
MP3: $203 (101.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with Ks Kh
MP1 calls $2, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $2, CO folds, BTN raises to $10, SB folds, Hero raises to $32, MP1 raises to $88, 2 folds, Hero calls $56

Flop: ($189) Td 8c Kd (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $211.95 and is all-in, Hero calls $211.95

Turn: ($612.90) 2c (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($612.90) 8s (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $612.90 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Ks Kh (a full house, Kings full of Eights) and won $609.90 ($309.95 net)
MP1 mucked As Ac (two pairs, Aces and Eights) and lost (-$299.95 net)