Saturday, August 30, 2008
Finally an EV graph that doesn't suck
12 BI upswings are fun. Note that my Sklansky Buck EV along with my all-in luck and heater versus cooler hand analysis (the latter two aren't included here) were basically neutral for the session. I also flopped way less sets than I should have. I simply just had so many hands tonight against terrible donkeys who wanted to stack off extremely light. Oh, and the occasional flopped straight against a reg's set a little deepstacked is nice too.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Sometimes a pot size raise isn't enough... how about 8x pot
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
BTN: $59.75 (59.8 bb)
SB: $28 (28 bb)
Hero (BB): $229.40 (229.4 bb)
UTG+1: $118.35 (118.4 bb)
MP1: $21.40 (21.4 bb)
MP2: $157.35 (157.4 bb)
MP3: $94.50 (94.5 bb)
CO: $100 (100 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with Js 4h
UTG+1 calls $1, 6 folds, Hero checks
Flop: ($2.50) 2h 3h 5h (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, UTG+1 raises to $3, Hero calls $1.50
Turn: ($8.50) Jh (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks
River: ($8.50) Ah (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $5, Hero raises to $225.40 and is all-in, UTG+1 calls $109.35 and is all-in
Results: $237.20 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Js 4h (a straight flush, Ace to Five) and won $234.20 ($115.85 net)
UTG+1 mucked Th 9h (a flush, Ace high) and lost (-$118.35 net)
Note that villain was a donkey (something like 35/15 iirc). I probably should have open shoved river, but I think the c/r looks even more bluffy. I can't believe how light he called me down. After he started timebanking, I thought he was going to fold the Qh. When he called I expected to see Kh... not the ten high flush, hah.
BTN: $59.75 (59.8 bb)
SB: $28 (28 bb)
Hero (BB): $229.40 (229.4 bb)
UTG+1: $118.35 (118.4 bb)
MP1: $21.40 (21.4 bb)
MP2: $157.35 (157.4 bb)
MP3: $94.50 (94.5 bb)
CO: $100 (100 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with Js 4h
UTG+1 calls $1, 6 folds, Hero checks
Flop: ($2.50) 2h 3h 5h (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, UTG+1 raises to $3, Hero calls $1.50
Turn: ($8.50) Jh (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks
River: ($8.50) Ah (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $5, Hero raises to $225.40 and is all-in, UTG+1 calls $109.35 and is all-in
Results: $237.20 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Js 4h (a straight flush, Ace to Five) and won $234.20 ($115.85 net)
UTG+1 mucked Th 9h (a flush, Ace high) and lost (-$118.35 net)
Note that villain was a donkey (something like 35/15 iirc). I probably should have open shoved river, but I think the c/r looks even more bluffy. I can't believe how light he called me down. After he started timebanking, I thought he was going to fold the Qh. When he called I expected to see Kh... not the ten high flush, hah.
Monday, August 25, 2008
A Typical Session
I bitch a lot about running poorly, but a lot of people don't really know what running bad is. On Sunday I played what is a typical (probably slightly better than average, actually) session for August.
Here is my EV graph:
I win money, but I ran a little over $400 bad in Sklansky vs Showdown winnings. Those can be fairly skewed though, so lets check all-in luck (which is pure, though it tells a smaller section of the variance story):
Big surprise, I'm out $400 there too. Well, lets take a look at heater versus coolers, maybe I had AA vs KK several times to even out my shitty luck from an equity perspective:
Wow, I'm out over $400 in heater versus cooler hands too! What a surprise. A session that would have easily been over +$1200 had I ran average turned into +$400 (along with around ~$240 in rakeback, yay) because I'm permanently doomswitched.
Enough bitching, and on to a hand history. I recall a respected 2+2 poster (probably SABR or Bottomset) saying that any decent player should be running a handful of 3-barrel bluffs every session. As I am a nitty 24-tabler, I have an image such that my 2nd and 3rd barrels get a ton of respect from the regs. I've started to fire second barrels more often with air on low boards (which causes regs to fold their weak overpairs they float my flop bet with). Additionally, both this session and last, I've run a 3-barrel bluff. Both have worked, though neither were against regs. I think the bluff from 2 sessions ago was pretty good, though I'm not sure I like the one from last night which we are going to look at.
Lets break down the hand history:
Villain in this hand is a 24/13 LAG over a few hundred hands. I'm not sure how he got his stack, but I haven't noticed him playing terribly. Note that we are 220+BB deep.
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
BTN: $300.95 (301 bb)
SB: $25.20 (25.2 bb)
BB: $114.90 (114.9 bb)
UTG: $138.35 (138.4 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): $223.50 (223.5 bb)
MP1: $116.65 (116.7 bb)
MP2: $15.90 (15.9 bb)
MP3: $44.50 (44.5 bb)
CO: $100 (100 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG+1 with Ks Ah
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3.50, 4 folds, BTN calls $3.50, 2 folds
Standard. Note that my raising range is tight since I am UTG+1. He's a fairly loose player so he is definitely calling behind with suited connectors, etc.
Flop: ($8.50) 2h 8d Td (2 players)
Hero bets $6, BTN calls $6
Standard c-bet, he decides to float. His range consists of sets, Tx, 33-77, 99, JJ-QQ, and Ax and other suited connectors of diamonds. He may also rarely have KK-AA, though he likely 3-bets them preflop most of the time.
Turn: ($20.50) 2c (2 players)
Hero bets $13.50, BTN calls $13.50
I fire a second barrel to fold out Tx, 33-77, and sometimes larger PPs and diamond draws as well. When he calls he may still be on a diamond draw (though his call is pretty bad), or more likely has a hand like 99 or JJ.
River: ($47.50) Th (2 players)
Hero bets $35.50, BTN folds
I don't really like the third barrel here in hindsight, though it isn't as terrible as it initially looks. If he has a busted diamond draw here, there's a good chance he would bet it if checked to, and I'd be bluffed off the best hand (AK high, lol). So betting here does at the very least win us the pot in the "air versus air" scenario, which is probably the case a decent amount of the time. If villain has Tx, he's obviously raising, and we will fold. If he had 88, he'd likely have raised the flop or turn. Thus, aside from a busted draws villain's most likely holding are 99, JJ and Tx. If he is calling the turn barrel with 99 and JJ, he should be calling the river, but that doesn't mean he will, and in practice he probably folds a lot of the time, as my hand looks very much like KK-AA after the river bet.
Results: $47.50 pot ($2.30 rake)
Hero mucked Ks Ah (two pairs, Tens and Twos) and won $45.20 ($22.20 net)
For my river bet to be +EV, villain needs to fold just over 42% of the time. I think it is probably pretty close to neutral EV.
Here is my EV graph:
I win money, but I ran a little over $400 bad in Sklansky vs Showdown winnings. Those can be fairly skewed though, so lets check all-in luck (which is pure, though it tells a smaller section of the variance story):
Big surprise, I'm out $400 there too. Well, lets take a look at heater versus coolers, maybe I had AA vs KK several times to even out my shitty luck from an equity perspective:
Wow, I'm out over $400 in heater versus cooler hands too! What a surprise. A session that would have easily been over +$1200 had I ran average turned into +$400 (along with around ~$240 in rakeback, yay) because I'm permanently doomswitched.
Enough bitching, and on to a hand history. I recall a respected 2+2 poster (probably SABR or Bottomset) saying that any decent player should be running a handful of 3-barrel bluffs every session. As I am a nitty 24-tabler, I have an image such that my 2nd and 3rd barrels get a ton of respect from the regs. I've started to fire second barrels more often with air on low boards (which causes regs to fold their weak overpairs they float my flop bet with). Additionally, both this session and last, I've run a 3-barrel bluff. Both have worked, though neither were against regs. I think the bluff from 2 sessions ago was pretty good, though I'm not sure I like the one from last night which we are going to look at.
Lets break down the hand history:
Villain in this hand is a 24/13 LAG over a few hundred hands. I'm not sure how he got his stack, but I haven't noticed him playing terribly. Note that we are 220+BB deep.
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
BTN: $300.95 (301 bb)
SB: $25.20 (25.2 bb)
BB: $114.90 (114.9 bb)
UTG: $138.35 (138.4 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): $223.50 (223.5 bb)
MP1: $116.65 (116.7 bb)
MP2: $15.90 (15.9 bb)
MP3: $44.50 (44.5 bb)
CO: $100 (100 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG+1 with Ks Ah
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3.50, 4 folds, BTN calls $3.50, 2 folds
Standard. Note that my raising range is tight since I am UTG+1. He's a fairly loose player so he is definitely calling behind with suited connectors, etc.
Flop: ($8.50) 2h 8d Td (2 players)
Hero bets $6, BTN calls $6
Standard c-bet, he decides to float. His range consists of sets, Tx, 33-77, 99, JJ-QQ, and Ax and other suited connectors of diamonds. He may also rarely have KK-AA, though he likely 3-bets them preflop most of the time.
Turn: ($20.50) 2c (2 players)
Hero bets $13.50, BTN calls $13.50
I fire a second barrel to fold out Tx, 33-77, and sometimes larger PPs and diamond draws as well. When he calls he may still be on a diamond draw (though his call is pretty bad), or more likely has a hand like 99 or JJ.
River: ($47.50) Th (2 players)
Hero bets $35.50, BTN folds
I don't really like the third barrel here in hindsight, though it isn't as terrible as it initially looks. If he has a busted diamond draw here, there's a good chance he would bet it if checked to, and I'd be bluffed off the best hand (AK high, lol). So betting here does at the very least win us the pot in the "air versus air" scenario, which is probably the case a decent amount of the time. If villain has Tx, he's obviously raising, and we will fold. If he had 88, he'd likely have raised the flop or turn. Thus, aside from a busted draws villain's most likely holding are 99, JJ and Tx. If he is calling the turn barrel with 99 and JJ, he should be calling the river, but that doesn't mean he will, and in practice he probably folds a lot of the time, as my hand looks very much like KK-AA after the river bet.
Results: $47.50 pot ($2.30 rake)
Hero mucked Ks Ah (two pairs, Tens and Twos) and won $45.20 ($22.20 net)
For my river bet to be +EV, villain needs to fold just over 42% of the time. I think it is probably pretty close to neutral EV.
Monday, August 18, 2008
Best Hand Ever
It speaks for itself:
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker
MP2: $118.80 (118.8 bb)
MP3: $116.25 (116.3 bb)
Hero (CO): $100 (100 bb)
BTN: $100 (100 bb)
SB: $42.70 (42.7 bb)
BB: $312.60 (312.6 bb)
MP1: $151.40 (151.4 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with Ts Js
3 folds, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, BB raises to $11, Hero calls $8
Flop: ($22.50) Ks Th Ac (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($22.50) As (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
River: ($22.50) Qs (2 players)
BB bets $18, Hero raises to $89 and is all-in, BB calls $71
Results: $200.50 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Ts Js (a royal flush) and won $197.50 ($97.50 net)
BB mucked Ah Ad (four of a kind, Aces) and lost (-$100 net)
Edit from some years later: this hand actually produced a pretty epic multi-page bad beat thread on a French poker forum, which I found by googling my screen name. My French isn't great, but I could make out enough of the comments to be thoroughly amused.
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker
MP2: $118.80 (118.8 bb)
MP3: $116.25 (116.3 bb)
Hero (CO): $100 (100 bb)
BTN: $100 (100 bb)
SB: $42.70 (42.7 bb)
BB: $312.60 (312.6 bb)
MP1: $151.40 (151.4 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with Ts Js
3 folds, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, BB raises to $11, Hero calls $8
Flop: ($22.50) Ks Th Ac (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($22.50) As (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
River: ($22.50) Qs (2 players)
BB bets $18, Hero raises to $89 and is all-in, BB calls $71
Results: $200.50 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Ts Js (a royal flush) and won $197.50 ($97.50 net)
BB mucked Ah Ad (four of a kind, Aces) and lost (-$100 net)
Edit from some years later: this hand actually produced a pretty epic multi-page bad beat thread on a French poker forum, which I found by googling my screen name. My French isn't great, but I could make out enough of the comments to be thoroughly amused.
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Epic Hold
Unfortunately as a whole I've continued to run like ass lately. I ran terribly during my longest session ever on Saturday (14 hours, 22k hands), followed that up with a decent heater on Sunday, and then ran poorly against Monday evening. Rather than bitch more, I'm going to post a HH from my Sunday session where we see a four way all-in. There's always a chance I'm drawing to a straight flush on the flop, but I figured my hand was probably good. However, once all the money went in I knew I had to dodge half the deck.
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
MP2: $52.10 (52.1 bb)
MP3: $99 (99 bb)
CO: $44 (44 bb)
BTN: $94.30 (94.3 bb)
SB: $100.80 (100.8 bb)
Hero (BB): $102.75 (102.8 bb)
UTG+1: $25.15 (25.2 bb)
MP1: $123.15 (123.2 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with Js Qs
2 folds, MP2 raises to $5, MP3 folds, CO calls $5, BTN calls $5, SB folds, Hero calls $4
Flop: ($20.50) 9s 6s 8s (4 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $5, CO raises to $15, BTN calls $15, Hero raises to $84.50, MP2 calls $42.10 and is all-in, CO calls $24 and is all-in, BTN raises to $89.30 and is all-in, Hero calls $4.80
Turn: ($285.20) 4c (4 players, 3 are all-in)
River: ($285.20) 7d (4 players, 3 are all-in)
Results: $285.20 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Js Qs (a flush, Queen high) and won $282.20 ($187.90 net)
BTN mucked 6c 6d (three of a kind, Sixes) and lost (-$94.30 net)
MP2 mucked Kd As (high card Ace) and lost (-$52.10 net)
CO mucked 9d 9h (three of a kind, Nines) and lost (-$44 net)
For fun, here is the equity of each hand on the flop:
Hero (JsQs): 54%
Halfstack fish in the CO (99): 19%
Decent reg fullstack (66): 5% (drawing to one out!)
Halfstack donk (AsKd): 22%
So I suppose I really didn't have to dodge quite as much as I thought, though it still felt pretty epic when the board bricked off as I yelled "one time" at the monitor.
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
MP2: $52.10 (52.1 bb)
MP3: $99 (99 bb)
CO: $44 (44 bb)
BTN: $94.30 (94.3 bb)
SB: $100.80 (100.8 bb)
Hero (BB): $102.75 (102.8 bb)
UTG+1: $25.15 (25.2 bb)
MP1: $123.15 (123.2 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with Js Qs
2 folds, MP2 raises to $5, MP3 folds, CO calls $5, BTN calls $5, SB folds, Hero calls $4
Flop: ($20.50) 9s 6s 8s (4 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $5, CO raises to $15, BTN calls $15, Hero raises to $84.50, MP2 calls $42.10 and is all-in, CO calls $24 and is all-in, BTN raises to $89.30 and is all-in, Hero calls $4.80
Turn: ($285.20) 4c (4 players, 3 are all-in)
River: ($285.20) 7d (4 players, 3 are all-in)
Results: $285.20 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Js Qs (a flush, Queen high) and won $282.20 ($187.90 net)
BTN mucked 6c 6d (three of a kind, Sixes) and lost (-$94.30 net)
MP2 mucked Kd As (high card Ace) and lost (-$52.10 net)
CO mucked 9d 9h (three of a kind, Nines) and lost (-$44 net)
For fun, here is the equity of each hand on the flop:
Hero (JsQs): 54%
Halfstack fish in the CO (99): 19%
Decent reg fullstack (66): 5% (drawing to one out!)
Halfstack donk (AsKd): 22%
So I suppose I really didn't have to dodge quite as much as I thought, though it still felt pretty epic when the board bricked off as I yelled "one time" at the monitor.
Friday, August 1, 2008
Monthly Review - July
July was certainly a very interesting month. It began with Pokerstars announcing that it would be running a month long promotion (with new stuff happening every week). The first week included double VPPs, which is exceptionally good for cash game players. Unfortunately, I had serious Internet connectivity problems during this period, which limited my playtime. Furthermore, the games were very poor during the double VPP week, as the regulars were all putting in extra hours to take advantage, thus altering the reg:fish ratio significantly.
Later in the month, Pokerstars offered a $240 deposit bonus, which I very quickly cleared to put some free money in my pocket. To start the month they had also announced a new Supernova level bonus in the VIP store, $4k for 250k FPPs. This effectively changed the monetary value of an FPP from 1.5c to 1.6c. Around 2/3rds the way through the month I hit Supernova, and purchased one of the new bonuses.
Earlier in the month, I also purchased a 28" monitor and new mouse, and set up Autohotkey with my many new mouse buttons so I could comfortably 18 table. This went very well and 18 tables is my new standard (which I will be trying to increase to 24 soon).
From a results standpoint, July was both my worst month ever and my best. From my perspective, it was most definitely the worst. I played far more hands than I have ever played before in a month: 132.5k. This is partially due to my being able to play 18 tables, but mostly because when I run bad, I try to grind through it. I ran worse this month than I have ever run before, by far. Unfortunately I don't have an EV graph (which only tells a small part of the story anyway) because when trying to load all 132.5k hands PokerEV repeatedly thew a "System Out of Memory Exception". I guess 2GB of RAM isn't enough. However, based on the heater:cooler ratio and EV broken down into discrete chunks, I think it's fair to say I ran ~$4k below expectation this month, with a 100k hand breakeven stretch. The number of ridiculous setup hands and suckouts during this period was completely unbelievable.
During his challenge to win $10k in a month at 25NL, WCGRider (a good midstakes pro) had a 100k breakeven stretch. Some people knew that such things are very much able to happen to good winning players, but it took many other people by surprise. If it can happen to a great player who is playing way below his stakes, it can certainly happen to me at 100NL. I'm just glad the month is done.
Here are my results. I don't have a pretty PT3 graph since the trial expired, you'll have to settle for the grey/red Pokergrapher variety:
So, what does this mean for my bottom line for the month?
$3265 winnings
$240 deposit bonus
59,823 VPPs: $2762 in FPP rakeback*
*36,000 VPPs at Platinum Star = 90k FPPs = $1440
*23,623 VPPs at Supernova = 82,680 FPPs = $1323
-----------------------------
$6267 total
My best month ever in terms of winnings, but worst in terms of winrate. Having ~half my profit coming from FPPs/bonuses is very discouraging. Variance happens though, whatever.
Lets quickly address my July goals:
(1)Get a new desk and a new monitor, be comfortable 15+ tabling
Check, I'm 18 tabling like a pro thanks to new hardware + Autohotkey. This is by far the biggest accomplishment of the month, and I can't wait to hit 24 tables (second monitor on the way).
(2)Open up in position, steal more blinds, and 3-bet bluff regulars occasionally
My ATS went way up, then settled back down (but still above where it was). The same happened to by button VPIP as well, though it fell all the way back down to where it used to be. I am 3-bet bluffing more, but probably 3-betting my marginal hands less, especially versus EP raises. I think I'm comfortable with where my game is with respect to VPIP/ATS, and any adjustments would have a minor effect on my winrate if any. Consider this half accomplished.
(3)Stop being a wimp in the big blind
Definitely not accomplished. After thinking about it further (and seeing some results from folks who are very aggro in the BB) I don't think this was a good goal in the first place. Position is just so important and when you're in the BB you almost always are OOP except in BvB battles (where I'm not a wimp anyway).
I guess that about sums it up. I'll start thinking about my August goals and post them later.
Later in the month, Pokerstars offered a $240 deposit bonus, which I very quickly cleared to put some free money in my pocket. To start the month they had also announced a new Supernova level bonus in the VIP store, $4k for 250k FPPs. This effectively changed the monetary value of an FPP from 1.5c to 1.6c. Around 2/3rds the way through the month I hit Supernova, and purchased one of the new bonuses.
Earlier in the month, I also purchased a 28" monitor and new mouse, and set up Autohotkey with my many new mouse buttons so I could comfortably 18 table. This went very well and 18 tables is my new standard (which I will be trying to increase to 24 soon).
From a results standpoint, July was both my worst month ever and my best. From my perspective, it was most definitely the worst. I played far more hands than I have ever played before in a month: 132.5k. This is partially due to my being able to play 18 tables, but mostly because when I run bad, I try to grind through it. I ran worse this month than I have ever run before, by far. Unfortunately I don't have an EV graph (which only tells a small part of the story anyway) because when trying to load all 132.5k hands PokerEV repeatedly thew a "System Out of Memory Exception". I guess 2GB of RAM isn't enough. However, based on the heater:cooler ratio and EV broken down into discrete chunks, I think it's fair to say I ran ~$4k below expectation this month, with a 100k hand breakeven stretch. The number of ridiculous setup hands and suckouts during this period was completely unbelievable.
During his challenge to win $10k in a month at 25NL, WCGRider (a good midstakes pro) had a 100k breakeven stretch. Some people knew that such things are very much able to happen to good winning players, but it took many other people by surprise. If it can happen to a great player who is playing way below his stakes, it can certainly happen to me at 100NL. I'm just glad the month is done.
Here are my results. I don't have a pretty PT3 graph since the trial expired, you'll have to settle for the grey/red Pokergrapher variety:
So, what does this mean for my bottom line for the month?
$3265 winnings
$240 deposit bonus
59,823 VPPs: $2762 in FPP rakeback*
*36,000 VPPs at Platinum Star = 90k FPPs = $1440
*23,623 VPPs at Supernova = 82,680 FPPs = $1323
-----------------------------
$6267 total
My best month ever in terms of winnings, but worst in terms of winrate. Having ~half my profit coming from FPPs/bonuses is very discouraging. Variance happens though, whatever.
Lets quickly address my July goals:
(1)Get a new desk and a new monitor, be comfortable 15+ tabling
Check, I'm 18 tabling like a pro thanks to new hardware + Autohotkey. This is by far the biggest accomplishment of the month, and I can't wait to hit 24 tables (second monitor on the way).
(2)Open up in position, steal more blinds, and 3-bet bluff regulars occasionally
My ATS went way up, then settled back down (but still above where it was). The same happened to by button VPIP as well, though it fell all the way back down to where it used to be. I am 3-bet bluffing more, but probably 3-betting my marginal hands less, especially versus EP raises. I think I'm comfortable with where my game is with respect to VPIP/ATS, and any adjustments would have a minor effect on my winrate if any. Consider this half accomplished.
(3)Stop being a wimp in the big blind
Definitely not accomplished. After thinking about it further (and seeing some results from folks who are very aggro in the BB) I don't think this was a good goal in the first place. Position is just so important and when you're in the BB you almost always are OOP except in BvB battles (where I'm not a wimp anyway).
I guess that about sums it up. I'll start thinking about my August goals and post them later.
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