2011 Review - Weathering the Storm

In 2009, the thing I remember most regarding my poker career is busting my ass in my successful pursuit of SNE. 2010 is most memorable to me for the live events I was able to play due to my SNE status earned the year before. Unfortunately, I get the feeling I will remember two things about 2011: Black Friday, and the current Pokerstars VPP distribution issue.

That isn't to say 2011 was a bad year for me, though it most definitely was a terrible year for online poker. I put in less hands than in 2010, though this was mostly due to cutting tables due to game quality. I probably put in a few less hours in total, though I get the feeling there wasn't a huge disparity in that regard.

On the bright side, my winrate was significantly higher in 2011 than in 2010 or 2009. In the 1.2 million hands I played, I took more off the tables than in the 1.5 million I played last year, and only $80 (lol) less than in the 2.5 million hands I played to get SNE in 2009. I ran decently on the year overall compared to the two previous, with the best aspect of my variance being that my runbad more often than not came at 100NL and 200NL while in the small sample of hands I put in at 400NL+ I ran fine. I think my results really improved when I started accepting that cutting tables wasn't the end of world, which came in September. Since September 1st, over 400k hands my winrate has been 3.81ptBB/100, which is pretty nuts - I'm below AIEV in this sample also, though that wouldn't surprise anyone. Hopefully I can continue to crush in 2012, as a huge chunk of my rakeback is being taken away by Stars so table winnings are going to be front and center.

Reasonably sexy graph:


One of these years I really need to crack 100k table winnings, just because. Breakdown of winnings below:


The bottom line, month to month style:
January - $10,033.32
February - $7403.85
March - $10,418.20
April - $15,940.70
May - $14,538.19
June - $1848.83
July - $11,092.13
A&S - $18,207.70
October - $11,742.25
November - $17,176.61
December - $19,360.69
-----------------------------------------------
$137,762.47 total profit.

I'm feeling pretty good about the year, though that's mostly because I finished so strong from September through the present. Hopefully online poker has a better year in 2012. If the US doesn't mess up their regulations, FTP relaunches, and Stars gets its shit together, good things could happen. The realist in me doubts more than one of those three things will actually happen though (I think FTP relaunching is more likely than the others), and things could definitely get worse.

December Review - Getting Down To Business

In December I had a concrete goal for the month for the first time since 2009 - grind out 46k VPPs to hit the 500k milestone. Given my volume of late, this was something of a non-trivial challenge from a lazy standpoint. During my "perfect" November, I put in 114 hours of poker. In December, that number jumped to 140. I think in the future I'd like to be closer to the latter on the monthly basis, though maybe the magic number is around 130.

As I mentioned in my last post game quality was very good, exceptional even during the last 10 days or so. Unfortunately I ran a little on the bad side, in both AIEV and getting coolered etc. The improved fish:reg ratio definitely helped my winrate however, and though I think I was playing a little better in November overall, I'm really happy with where my game is at the moment. Over my last 500k hands I've been winning at 3.5ptBB/100. Did I get sent back into 2008?

Early on in the month I was lucky enough to be dealt into a milestone hand, and even luckier to bink a river 2 outer to win it! Add to that cashing in a freeroll I did not even play in for $30 (unlike many of the people sitting out and being blinded off in said event, I knew when it was, I just couldn't be bothered), and I had a little unexpected profit.



The bottom line:
$13,032.62 table winnings
+$2578.07 FPP value (46,037 VPPs * 3.5 FPPs/VPP * 1.6c/FPP)
+$3200 500k VPP milestone bonus
+$520 milestone hand #71911000000
+$30 10th anniversary freeroll
---------------------------------------
$19,360.69 total profit.

My best month of the year in terms of total profit, though November still takes the cake for table winnings/winrate. I'm happy I was able to plan out a schedule for myself to put in a little heavier volume in what was a busy December outside of poker. Hopefully the work ethic carries over some in 2012.

Bright Side

While it is tough to get past the Pokerstars VIP changes (which stand to cost me personally ~12-15k next year if there is not compensation added), I am very happy with how the game quality has been over the past two weeks or so, particularly the last 7 days. Typically late December is the worst time of the year for game quality, as people scramble to finish up SNE/milestones. This year however, Black Friday crushed the dreams of many early on, and I get the feeling the fantastic fish:reg ratio of late has been caused more than anything by US regs either going home for the holidays or having used up their 6 months in Canada.

The result of this is that I'm having a very successful month at the tables in terms of winrate, despite running somewhat poorly.

Case in point, when someone has outs to having one out I'm in trouble at my normal stakes:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed)
UTG+1 ($100)
MP1 ($40.90)
MP2 ($100.80)
CO ($100)
Button ($67.45)
SB ($39.90)
Hero (BB) ($105.15)
UTG ($100)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5♣, 5♥
5 folds, Button calls $1, 1 fold, Hero checks

Flop: ($2.50) 9♦, 3♣, 5♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $2, Button calls $2

Turn: ($6.50) 3♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $6, Button raises to $16, Hero raises to $26, Button calls $10

River: ($58.50) 3♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $65.50, Button calls $38.45 (All-In)

Total pot: $135.40 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had K♠, 3♦ (four of a kind, threes).
Hero had 5♣, 5♥ (full house, fives over threes).
Outcome: Button won $132.40


Fortunately for me, at midstakes I can occasionally fade bare backdoors. Pretty much the story of my year.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (8 handed)
Hero (SB) ($600)
BB ($279)
UTG ($276)
UTG+1 ($526.25)
MP1 ($600)
MP2 ($711)
CO ($600)
Button ($240)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K♣, A♦
UTG calls $6, UTG+1 bets $12, MP1 calls $12, 3 folds, Hero raises to $72, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $60, 1 fold

Flop: ($168) 6♠, A♥, 6♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $117, UTG+1 raises to $454.25 (All-In), Hero calls $337.25

Turn: ($1076.50) A♣ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($1076.50) Q♣ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $1076.50 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had K♣, A♦ (full house, Aces over sixes).
UTG+1 had 7♠, Q♥ (two pair, Aces and Queens).
Outcome: Hero won $1073.50

I've got another 1.4k VPPs to grind for my 500k milestone bonus. I'll put in another short session tonight then finish things off tomorrow afternoon. Expect my December Review and then Yearly Review shortly.

Monopoly

Edit: As of today Pokerstars announced that in response to player outcry they will be removing the rake changes but keeping the VPP distribution change to WC. Yes, this means that after them essentially saying "we're going to take back 25-50% of your rakeback but give you ~5% less rake" their answer to appease the player backlash is to cancel the 5% less rake. I have absolutely no faith that Pokerstars is being run by anyone remotely competent in light of this. At this point, things have just become insulting.

Good things very rarely come of one organization monopolizing a given space. Pokerstars is coming very close to having a true monopoly in the online poker world following after the demises of FTP and UB/AP.

Even before their most significant competitor blew itself up due to mismanagement of epic proportions, Pokerstars started pushing the envelope a bit to see what it could get away with in terms of reducing the effective rakeback of its high volume grinders. The VPP changes of 2010 are a prime example, and post Black Friday, the SNG rake changes.

Today, Pokerstars announced its VIP program changes for the new year. Without going into detail (which can be found many other places, 2p2 especially), in moving from a "dealt" to "weighted-contributed" distribution model for VPPs they will be reducing the effective rakeback (and thus bottom line) of nearly every single non-recreational player who primarily plays 6max or FR NLH (and likely PLO as well). While the VPP changes of 2010 may have given us FR grinders a ~5-10% hit in this regard, the changes set to go live in four days time appear to be reducing the effective rakeback of a typical grinder in my games by 20-50%. Pokerstars emphasizes that the VPPs being taken from said players will be given to the looser recreational players in the games. While this is the case, what they do not mention is that these players are almost all between Bronze to Gold Star VIP status, thus earning far less FPPs than the grinders who are basically all Supernova or SNE with large modifiers. Pokerstars then pockets the difference, which will end up being a hell of a lot of money. I must also add that their rake calculation model is being changed as well at some stakes, with it decreasing a little at micro and small stakes. Based on early number crunching it looks like this may reduce the total amount of rake paid by a FR player by ~5% at small stakes, which is not trivial but does not come close to making up for the money heading the other way.

What bugs me the most is how deceptively worded the announcement was. Additionally, Stars made said announcement 4 days before the start of the new year - this is not adequate warning. Finally, in the announcemnt they addressed why they chose not to instead go to a WTA (winner take all) model which would have made less of an impact on the bottom lines of their high volume players. They stated that these people would not appreciate the "VPP variance" associated with such a model. This is a flat out lie, and there is absolutely no way anyone with a reasonable grasp of the situation would think otherwise. Every single one of said players would prefer a WTA model, as you would be taking significantly less money from them.

I understand that Pokerstars is a business, and they have every right to do what they are if they think it will improve their bottom line. My personal feeling is that they believe when regulation in the US and potentially other countries occurs, their market share is going to be reduced significantly and are trying to make as much as they can now before that day comes. I fear this approach may be significantly short sighted.

In response, players are planning to mass sit out on January first, blocking games from running and cutting into Pokerstars' bottom line. I expect any response to this will be a concession that Stars has already planned in order to save some face, as they could not possibly expect to make changes like this without severe backlash from their player base.



The upside for myself personally is that the state of the games lately has made it more profitable for me to focus on playing less tables (typically the 12-16 range) to maximize winrate. These last couple months, 75%+ of my profit has been from table winnings alone. While I will be punished for being on the tighter side, I go to showdown a lot more and 3b less than many regulars, which should help under the new system. Some regs who play significantly looser than I do may actually be hurt proportionally more by the changes due to their preflop tendencies. We'll have to wait and see I suppose. If things don't change, maybe I'll be motivated to deposit a bankroll on some softer Euro sites and mix volume there.

An Early Present

Poker since the comeback featured in the my last update has been relatively uneventful, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

The Flames beat the Canucks in Vancouver tonight and played a hell of a game, dominating the bulk of it. Even better, we started our backup goaltender who going into the season was #3 on the depth chart (Henrik Karlsson, our #2 up until this point blew out his knee a few weeks ago). Irving has played exceptionally well in his first two NHL starts, and getting his first win against our most hated rival has got to be one heck of an experience. The game as a whole was also an awesome early Christmas present to all Flames fans!

I finished up my run through of FFT: War of the Lions for the PSP. It is my second time through that particular version of the game (probably 5th or so total), and while I tend to forget how long it ends up being when you want to unlock all the classes and get all the best equipment, it is always a thoroughly enjoyable experience. The PSP version of it really has been a godsend, as it gave Square a chance to re-translate a gem that in its original form suffered from a downright heinous localization. This got me to thinking, I'd really love to see Final Fantasy 7, Xenogears, and Lunar 2 Eternal Blue remade - the first because the first gen 3d graphics are tough to stomach, the second because they ended up having to rush through the story in the second half of the game due to budget, and the third simply because it is the second entry in a series in which the first game has been remade twice in the last ~8 years with the second being skipped though no less a gem. Perhaps one day I'll get my wish!

Epic Comeback

After a moderately successful Friday in which I picked up ~$1k off the tables, Saturday began with one of my worst single day downswings ever in only 1.5k hands. As you might imagine it took an absolutely ridiculous combination of suckouts and coolers to make it happen.

Luckily enough, there were enough whales at midstakes the rest of the day that I managed what I believe is my largest completed "comeback" of my poker career, from ~$1.65k stuck to positive. It's hard to feel too bad about that. Say what you want about game quality these days - it may be tough to get a lot of good tables open, but the true maniac whales do still show up.

Threeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!

On Thursday I ran into the most heinous variance I've been hit with in a long time. It's been ages since I've been one outed three times in a session, and the fun didn't come close to stopping there.

On Friday I started the day behind a quick $600 in AIEV, but as the grind wound on I managed to get myself over $1k table winnings. It was near that point that I was dealt into another milestone hand (my fourth, or maybe fifth all time - I can never remember). Unfortunately for me my Ax hand was very much dominated in the four way all-in, but I binked the river two outer to ship the pot plus double my prize to $520. In total with the $338.30 pot after rake, the river bink was worth $598.30 to me, not bad given the hand was dealt at 100NL at a table which had just started a few hands ago and thus suffered from a low VPP count over the last 50 hands. All in all it ending up being an extremely profitable day, which was quite refreshing after Thursday.

Here's the HH:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (4 handed)
UTG ($40.30)
Button ($100)
Hero (SB) ($104.70)
BB ($100)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A♥, 3♦
UTG bets $3, Button raises to $100 (All-In), Hero raises to $104.70 (All-In), BB calls $99 (All-In), UTG calls $37.30 (All-In)

Flop: ($340.30) 8♦, 2♣, 3♣ (4 players, 4 all-in)

Turn: ($340.30) 7♥ (4 players, 4 all-in)

River: ($340.30) 3♥ (4 players, 4 all-in)

Total pot: $340.30 | Rake: $2

Results:
Button had 4♣, 10♠ (one pair, threes).
Hero had A♥, 3♦ (three of a kind, threes).
BB had 8♣, A♦ (two pair, eights and threes).
UTG had Q♣, A♠ (one pair, threes).
Outcome: Hero won $338.30

Three Way Tie

To kick off December I've been grinding hard, putting in 8 hours on Thursday, 11 on Friday and another 8 on Saturday. Hands/hour and VPP/hour rates are unfortunately still very low like last month, and as a result I've been mixing in some 6-max games to help things.

I ran into some pretty awful variance on Thursday, and though I was stuck as much as $800 at one point in the session I managed to recover and book a modest win. My luck turned on Friday, in which my 11 hours of determined grinding resulted in another $2.2k table winnings day, which enters into a three way tie with a Friday from last month and a Saturday from January 2010 as my "best day ever". Sort of strange how $2.2k seems to be my magic number.

On Saturday I had a respectable showing though nothing compared to Friday. I did manage to stack both Dante63s and Ljuti_Gusar in the same day, which is something of an accomplishment as they are two of the better 100NL regulars. The hand against the latter was boring, but versus the former I think is really interesting and was spewy on both our parts, particularly my flop float and his turn play.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)
Hero (BB) ($100)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($54.50)
MP1 ($100)
MP2 ($105)
MP3 ($102.65)
CO ($197)
Button ($75)
SB ($45)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q♠, A♠
4 folds, MP3 bets $3, 3 folds, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($6.50) K♠, 9♦, 3♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $4, Hero calls $4

Turn: ($14.50) Q♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $10, Hero raises to $30, MP3 calls $20

River: ($74.50) 4♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $65.65 (All-In), Hero calls $63 (All-In)

Total pot: $200.50 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had Q♠, A♠ (one pair, Queens).
MP3 had 9♣, A♣ (one pair, nines).
Outcome: Hero won $197.50

November Review - The Perfect Month

In the month of November I played poker on nineteen days, and went the entire month without a losing day at the tables (not considering FPP value or any other sort of rakeback, pure table winnings only). It truly was a beautiful thing, though such a streak should not be a goal for a player with a strong mental game, as said behavior could lead to booking small wins when playing well and turning small losses into large ones by extending sessions while fatigued or tilted. I won't be playing today or tomorrow as I have evening plans both days and want to get the bulk of my Christmas shopping done during the day. Here's a HEM snapshot for proof:



Obviously, I ran very well this month, better than I ever have over an 80k hand period that I can remember. I even ended up 0.5ptBB above AIEV which is unheard of for me!

My volume on the month was very low, a result of playing a mediocre number of hours combined with less hands per hour due to a lower number of tables. I definitely believe my game benefited from playing less tables however, and it very likely was a big factor in my winrate being so ridiculously high this month.

I also picked up $250 from a quarterly freeroll cash which didn't hurt. My total table winnings this month is actually my second highest total ever, which is nuts. My other comparable showings were over 180-210k hand samples, while this one was over only 83k. Variance was definitely on my side for a change.

The obligatory graph/table:


The bottom line:
$14,978.03 table winnings
+$1948.58 VPP value (34,796 VPPs * 3.5 FPPs/VPP * 1.6c/FPP)
+$250 quarterly freeroll cash
----------------------------------------------------------
$17,176.61 USD total profit

In December I'll need to grind out 46k VPPs to reach the 500k milestone bonus. This obviously is a significantly more than I put in this month, and with the state of the games will be a legitimate challenge for me. While it's going be a grind, I'm excited to have a serious goal for the month to keep me motivated. Hopefully I can get ahead of pace early and not have things go down to the wire on New Years Eve!

Rebuilding

Well, the jig is pretty much already up for the 2011-2012 Calgary Flames who it seems will finally go into a legit rebuild. Should be interesting to see what moves are made, as I'm certain that picking up Blake Comeau off waivers is only the beginning. Feaster may have some issues with the team's plethora of No Movement Clauses however.

The status quo for poker in November continues. The games are lousy, so I end up playing less tables/volume but am running well and it shows. On Friday I tied my all time record for most table winnings in a single day picking up ~$2.2k. It's worth noting too that had I faded one bare gutshot with one card to come at 600NL it would have been a 3k+ day! Certain whales just won't fold 65o on AJ84r for stacks.



I'm about half way through playing Final Fantasy Tactics for what is probably the sixth or seventh time. It wasn't intentional, but with my recent Suikoden 2 play through I ended up playing what I consider to be the two best RPGs of the PS1 era back to back. One of the best parts about FFT is that if you don't grind out a ton of levels early it is legitimately challenging for the first 60-70% of the game (until you get a jacked up Orlandeau or unlock the Arithmetician job). I've already seen the game over screen a couple times despite the fact I know the game inside out.

So Bad They're.... Good?

The games this month have been really bad in terms of total fish count, and as a result how many decent tables are available. On Friday the games were worse than I have ever seen on a Friday, and this is by no means rose colored goggles for the past or exaggeration. We need a poker mini-boom soon.

The good news is, despite game quality forcing lower volume, my winrate this month has been exceptional thus far. This is partially due to positive variance, but I imagine it is also a result of being forced to play less tables and playing a lot more shorthanded.

It also doesn't hurt to be put in spots where you can get stacks in with 100% equity (see first hand below) or when you can stack fish with K high (second hand):

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)
UTG+1 ($112.75)
MP1 ($158.60)
MP2 ($95.50)
MP3 ($79.15)
CO ($92)
Button ($100)
Hero (SB) ($100.50)
BB ($117.55)
UTG ($100)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9♦, 10♦
5 folds, CO bets $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($5) J♦, K♦, Q♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3, Hero raises to $12, CO calls $9

Turn: ($29) 6♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $22.50, CO raises to $78 (All-In), Hero calls $55.50

River: ($185) K♣ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $185 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had 9♦, 10♦ (straight flush, King high).
CO had 5♦, 7♦ (flush, King high).
Outcome: Hero won $182

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed)
SB ($206)
BB ($379.05)
UTG ($412.40)
UTG+1 ($200)
MP1 ($74)
Hero (MP2) ($213.70)
MP3 ($115.80)
CO ($289.45)
Button ($270.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q♠, K♠
2 folds, MP1 bets $6, Hero calls $6, 5 folds

Flop: ($15) 6♠, 7♠, 6♥ (2 players)
MP1 bets $22, Hero raises to $80, MP1 calls $46 (All-In)

Turn: ($151) 4♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($151) J♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $151 | Rake: $3

Results:
MP1 had Q♦, 10♦ (one pair, sixes).
Hero had Q♠, K♠ (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: Hero won $148


I finished up my Suikoden 2 replay a few days ago, and as expected from one of the greatest console RPGs ever it was spectacular. I'm now debating whether or not to give Suikoden 3 a go next.

Nearly Identical

Today was eerily similar to last Friday. From a poker perspective, this is a good thing as it means I ran well and won a bunch despite the games being pretty poor and not putting in a lot of hands. Graphs below to show what I'm talking about.

Today:


Last Friday:



Beyond that, just like last Friday the Flames lost a road game in which they just couldn't put the puck in the net. I'm glad Mikael Backlund is back in the lineup, but if the team doesn't string together some wins soon there's going to be a major overhaul of some kind coming and it might not be pretty.

I finished the Persona 2 remake for the PSP which was adequate. I was expecting the story to be a little less weird. You just don't quite know what to think when Hitler is the second to last boss in a game that is set in modern day Japan.

I also gave the original Suikoden a play through (I remember it being longer, but only ended up clocking in a little over 20 hours) and have already moved on to its sequel. While the first game is good it has a very sloppy translation and isn't truly great in any aspect. Suikoden 2 on the other hand has a better (though still not terribly good) localization, but has a truly amazing story and cast of characters paired with very enjoyable gameplay. It also benefits a bunch from the nostalgia factor present for those who have played the first game.

Awful Games, Awesome Variance

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that SSFR cash game quality was as bad as it has ever been on a Friday this past weekend. For much of Saturday the same held true, though this was to be expected due to the Quarterly VIP Freeroll - with every regular on at the same time it predictably creates an extremely unfavorable reg:fish ratio. The games did get a little better once most had busted from the donkament, quit grinding, and logged off.

Due to the terrible state of the games, I only managed ~10k hands the past two days. The good news is I ran super hot and made ~$2.6k cash winnings in the process. Some positive variance is really nice for a change! I also picked up a lot of hands early on in the Quarterly Freeroll, though went utterly card dead for the hour leading up to the bubble and busted shortly after for $250, just above a min-cash.



A productive weekend to say the least, even if the game quality is rather ominous. Perhaps the problem is isolated somewhat to full ring and I'll have to start mixing in some 6max tables.

October Review

After a pretty good September, October wasn't very good to me. While it was by no means a complete disaster, I spent the bulk of the month losing pots repeatedly with 90-99% flop equity. The games got a little better towards the end of the month thanks to the 70 billionth hand promotion, but I've gone milestone handless so far. I can't complain in this respect as I've been dealt into three(?) before. The real number could be four, I'm too lazy to double check. As planned, I did reach the 400k VPP milestone bonus this month for a quick $3000.

As I want to reach the 500k milestone bonus at the end of December (which means ~40k VPPs in each of the final three months of the year), volume was low again this month. I'm putting in 20-25 hours a week these days, which really isn't a lot. I hope to remedy this some in the new year and get back up to a solid 30 hour work week on a more optimal post-Black Friday schedule.



The bottom line:
$6426.03 table winnings
+$2316.21 FPP value (41,361 VPPs * 3.5 FPPs/VPP * 1.6c/FPP)
+$3000 400k VPP milestone bonus
-------------------------------
$11,742.25 USD total profit.

Like October, I expect November and December to be pretty uneventful from a volume/hours perspective. At least I'll have lots of time watch sports, with every league I follow closely being in full swing currently (NHL, NFL, CFL).

Overbets and You

This weekend I had a couple spots facing overbets that I wanted to post. One for pure hilarity value, the other because it's kind of interesting.

Funny hand first, obviously it is just donk uberspew with the river being incredibly ridiculous:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed)
UTG ($114.25)
MP ($141.30)
CO ($170.65)
Button ($46.60)
SB ($100)
Hero (BB) ($100)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10♦, Q♠
2 folds, CO calls $1, 2 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($2.50) Q♥, 7♦, 2♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($8.50) 7♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $6, Hero calls $6

River: ($20.50) Q♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $160.65 (All-In), Hero calls $90 (All-In)

Total pot: $200.50 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had 10♦, Q♠ (full house, Queens over sevens).
CO had 9♠, 3♠ (two pair, Queens and sevens).
Outcome: Hero won $197.50


The next hand is against a typical TAG reg in a spot where I almost always have middling showdown value and he knows that. Unfortunately for him, given his flop check he can never have flushes or A2/AJ/22/JJ, and once he bets the turn he really can't have 66, which means no boats. So his river overbet range is basically {air} that really wants my marginal SDV to fold.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)
Hero (SB) ($133.20)
BB ($158.75)
UTG ($103.60)
UTG+1 ($106)
MP1 ($151.80)
MP2 ($103.40)
MP3 ($134.35)
CO ($101.50)
Button ($100)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A♥, 3♥
7 folds, Hero bets $3, BB calls $2

Flop: ($6) A♠, 2♥, J♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

Turn: ($6) 2♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $4, Hero calls $4

River: ($14) 6♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $25, Hero calls $25

Total pot: $64 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had A♥, 3♥ (two pair, Aces and twos).
BB had Q♣, K♥ (one pair, twos).
Outcome: Hero won $61


Flames have won two in a row for the firs time this year, and are playing good but not great. Looking forward to being in the stands for the game against the Canucks on Tuesday. Patriots/Steelers tomorrow should be a great game, hope the Pats can take a win out of Steeltown.

Crippled

Two days ago I went to bed feeling 100% fine and woke up barely able to move my neck and in a fair bit of pain. I've been to the Chiropractor since and it's a pretty standard case that shouldn't be anything serious, but it certainly hasn't been very much fun. I still don't have my full range of motion in terms of turning my head.

Despite not being anything close to a baseball fan, I did watch Game 6 of the World Series tonight which was damn entertaining. The Cardinals just wouldn't die. Would be pretty sick if they lose Game 7 now after the miracles in 6.

I played an early (for me) session of poker today and the games at 100NL were pretty decent for a weekday. The games at 200NL and above were utterly dead however, as bad as I've ever seen them ever. Kind of odd. The month as a whole is shaping up to be pretty mediocre (>1bb/100 below AIEV as usual), but not terrible.

Funny hand of the day:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed)
SB ($100)
Hero (BB) ($100)
UTG ($78.35)
MP1 ($76)
MP2 ($95.75)
CO ($54.40)
Button ($101)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K♦, K♣
1 fold, MP1 calls $1, 1 fold, CO calls $1, Button calls $1, SB bets $7, Hero raises to $18, MP1 raises to $76 (All-In), 3 folds, Hero calls $58

Flop: ($161) 6♦, 8♥, 4♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($161) 2♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($161) Q♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $161 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had K♦, K♣ (one pair, Kings).
MP1 had 8♣, 10♠ (one pair, eights).
Outcome: Hero won $158

Got to watch out for the old limp/4b shove with T8o.

A Premonition

Weekend poker was swingy and not as profitable as I would have liked, but by no means a disaster either. On Friday I was up a sizable amount early before hitting a large downswing back to breakeven, before finally closing out a meager profit. On Saturday I began with a nasty $800 downer, but ended +$800 on the day.

The Saturday comeback had two major contributors. The first was a whale who was open shoving preflop/flops over half the time at a E200 table who I stacked twice (AK vs junk AIPF and KT vs 32 on KQT). The second was a fish who I've played with some before. I first stacked him in the first hand below. My flop play is unconventional but I had my reasons against this villain (basically he's betting his whole range when checked to and is going to peel any gutter to a small raise and might spaz out with his complete airballs).


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)
Hero (BB) ($101.15)
UTG ($37.50)
UTG+1 ($78.50)
MP1 ($290.45)
MP2 ($58)
MP3 ($100)
CO ($78.45)
Button ($107.60)
SB ($100)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A♥, A♦
2 folds, MP1 bets $3, 5 folds, Hero raises to $12, MP1 calls $9

Flop: ($24.50) 9♠, A♣, Q♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $11, Hero raises to $29, MP1 calls $18

Turn: ($82.50) 8♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $60.15 (All-In), MP1 calls $60.15

River: ($202.80) J♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $202.80 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had A♥, A♦ (three of a kind, Aces).
MP1 had 8♠, A♠ (two pair, Aces and eights).
Outcome: Hero won $199.80


Nothing special there. One hand later, the same fish (who was 290bbs deep at the start of the first hand) opened from EP and I as I called with KQ on the button I thought to myself: "It would be funny if I flop the nuts and back to back stack him". Of course, I figured the potential for such an occurrence was decent due to the tilt factor. Lo and behold, I end up flopping the nuts and stack the bastard in a near 400bb pot that was actually quite a cooler. I felt a little bad about it given his hand strength.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)
Hero (Button) ($199.30)
SB ($40.50)
BB ($40)
UTG ($189.30)
UTG+1 ($58)
MP1 ($100)
MP2 ($78.45)
MP3 ($107.60)
CO ($100)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, K
UTG bets $4, 5 folds, Hero calls $4, 1 fold, BB calls $3

Flop: ($12.50) 10, J, 9 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $11.90, Hero raises to $38.50, 1 fold, UTG calls $26.60

Turn: ($89.50) 5 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $58, UTG calls $58

River: ($205.50) 7 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $98.80 (All-In), UTG calls $88.80 (All-In)

Total pot: $383.10 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had Q, K (straight, King high).
UTG had 10, 10 (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: Hero won $380.10


I finished up Disgaea 4 last week, including a bunch of the optional post-game content which in previous Disgaea games I haven't been motivated to grind through. I found it a lot of fun this time around though. Definitely the best game in the series. I'm now probably a little half way through the remake of Persona 2: Innocent Sin for the PSP. It's similar to the remake of the original Persona which I couldn't endure the whole way through, but does a lot of things better so I would guess I'll be finishing this one. I wasn't expecting it to be in the same league as Persona 3 or 4, so I'm not disappointed.



Finally, the Flames have been an uninspired bunch and are already well on their way to digging (another) early season hole. The Stampeders aren't any better. It seems like every year the Patriots are my bright spot in the sporting world, until the playoffs at least!

Pokerstars VIP Dinner

Tonight I had the privilege of being taken to Ruth's Chris Steakhouse for a Pokerstars sponsored dinner outing with four other Supernovas, one SNE I play against on a regular basis, and Rich, the VIP coordinator for western Canada.

It was a thoroughly enjoyable experience, and of course exquisite cuisine. The Ahi Tuna appetizer was particularly exceptional. One of these years I'll actually order the Ahi Stack entree at Ruth's - I planned to both of my last two visits, but ended up calling last minute audibles to the ribeye steak on both occasions.

Two of the older players in attendance recounted stories of a pre-casino poker scene (somewhat Rounders-eque) in Calgary that I had no idea ever existed. We had good discussion about things Stars could potentially improve, how awful FTP was/is, and reminisced about SNE sponsored live events. Of the six players, two of us were NLH grinders, two specialized in PLO, and one was I believe a limit holdem player.

When Stars started planning and hosting these types of events a few months ago, it got me thinking about just how far beyond other poker sites (or just about any other businesses in general) Pokerstars takes their customer service. In years past, I blogged about my horrid experiences with FTP support, contrasted by my positive interactions with Stars staff, both via email and in person at live events. Guess which site wasn't egregiously mismanaged and hasn't run off with player funds? On other sites, you're just grateful that you might actually receive your cashout even if it takes three or more weeks. At Pokerstars, I withdraw several times a month and Fedex is always at my door the morning of the second business day following with my cheque (now if only Stars could train Fedex drivers to consistently remember that the sticker on my door means to LEAVE THE DAMN PACKAGE regardless of signature requirements). It really is just appalling at how wide the gap in service is between Stars and other sites which range from average to laughable. Perhaps what is even more shocking is how Stars doesn't seem one bit complacent and is still trying to improve, even taking players out to dinner in the process. Maybe I shouldn't be telling them this, but they could get away with a hell of a lot less because they'd still be far better than any alternative.

Since Black Friday I've been asked by a bunch of people how worried I am about my future grinding and the bankroll I have on Pokerstars. I tell them I'm not worried, because it's true. I probably should be more worried than I am, because no organization is bullet proof when the DOJ is involved, but it is simply hard to imagine a company that does so little wrong and so much right experience a tragic fall. My only significant complaint in over three years which I discussed a bunch from mid 2010 to early this year on this was how long it took for adoption of a 40-100bb buyin structure on regular cash tables.

Call me a shill if you must, but I do like my poker site.

August and September Review

I mentioned earlier that I was considering cutting the monthly reviews from this blog (I missed August as I was on vacation for the latter half), but I've decided to keep them around for old times sake if nothing else.

August was a short month as I was sick, busy and on vacation. I managed around 60k hands, with a pretty monstrous downswing during the first half of the month - definitely one of my three largest ever. I did manage to recover and and put forth a mediocre number in terms of table winnings relative to the volume, so I was happy it didn't end in disaster.

In September I ran pretty well at stakes above 100NL (though pretty poorly at 100). This is much much better than the reverse, and the result was a nice chunk of change and pretty 3.25ptBB winrate. I only managed 100k hands during September which was disappointing. I talked in previous posts about game quality not allowing for 24 tables a lot of the time now, but more than anything I simply am not putting in hours. In September I put in 105 hours according to HEM, and some of this time is guaranteed to be with one or two tables open starting up/closing down sessions where I'm more focused on other things than actually grinding, so you could consider it an inflated figure. The problem is somewhat that I don't like playing when the games are bad, but have not adjusted my schedule to Euro primetime on weekdays which appears to be a good idea. It's time for me to get my shit together in this regard, and would actually result in a schedule that is closer to "normal" relative to the rest of the world.



The bottom line:
$14,586.80 table winnings
+$3620.90 FPP value (64659 VPPs * 3.5FPPs/VPP * 1.6c/FPP)
--------------------------------
$18,207.70 USD total profit.

Given the volume and the lack of any milestones and such, an entirely respectable number.

I'll work on fixing up my grinding schedule during the last few months of this year, but as I'm shooting to only hit the 500k VPP milestone I don't need to put in heavy volume to get there (only 40k VPPs/month or so). Next year however I plan to ramp things up some, so the adjusted schedule will be a big deal.

Heads Up Tilt is the Best Kind

Near the end of my Friday session (which was ok, but not long enough) I was fortunate enough to have a pretty big fish all to myself in heads up action for a reasonably long period of time. Another reg sat in just before the final hand, but for the most part everything was HU. He doubled through me pretty early on in a fairly sick suck out, but after that I started winning a lot of pots and I found it intriguing how his style changed so drastically from loose/passive to maniac aggrodonk monkey tilt. Of course, it isn't uncommon to notice people tilting their balls off in full ring action, but it becomes so much more apparent and exploitable when you're in a HU battle.

The first hand where he binks a two outer. River call is pretty standard against this guy I think even before he goes into monkey tilt mode.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (2 handed)
BB ($161.80)
Hero (SB) ($200)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9♦, K♥
Hero bets $4, BB calls $2

Flop: ($8) K♦, 2♣, K♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB calls $5

Turn: ($18) 5♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $15, BB calls $15

River: ($48) 3♥ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $35, BB raises to $137.80 (All-In), Hero calls $102.80

Total pot: $323.60 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero had 9♦, K♥ (three of a kind, Kings).
BB had 3♣, 3♦ (full house, threes over Kings).
Outcome: BB won $323.10

I had won a bunch of smaller pots before this hand in quick succession, and I could already tell the tilt factor was building.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (2 handed)
SB ($259.95)
Hero (BB) ($256.65)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J♥, J♠
SB bets $4, Hero raises to $12, SB calls $8

Flop: ($24) 10♥, 8♣, 7♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $21, SB calls $21

Turn: ($66) Q♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $39, SB calls $39

River: ($144) A♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks

Total pot: $144 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
SB mucked 8♥, 9♥ (one pair, eights).
Hero had J♥, J♠ (one pair, Jacks).
Outcome: Hero won $143.50

By this point, he had gone from open limping 80% of buttons and raising 20% or so to raising all of them and 3betting around half my opens.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (2 handed)
BB ($234.05)
Hero (SB) ($279.05)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2♣, 2♦
Hero bets $4, BB raises to $12, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($24) 2♠, 5♣, 6♥ (2 players)
BB bets $23.50, Hero raises to $76, BB raises to $222.05 (All-In), Hero calls $146.05

Turn: ($468.10) K♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($468.10) Q♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $468.10 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero had 2♣, 2♦ (three of a kind, twos).
BB had J♠, A♣ (high card, Ace).
Outcome: Hero won $467.60

He reloads, wins a couple small pots and then this hand happens. Pretty sure if he had A high on the river he's not folding.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (2 handed)
SB ($192.90)
Hero (BB) ($495.60)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A♣, K♥
SB bets $6, Hero raises to $18, SB calls $12

Flop: ($36) 6♦, K♣, 9♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $30, SB calls $30

Turn: ($96) J♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $71, SB calls $71

River: ($238) J♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $237, 1 fold

Total pot: $238 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero didn't show A♣, K♥ (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $237.50

It is very liberating to a FR nit to be able to fistpump 3 barrel TPNK for value. That being said, my sizing in this hand sucks and there's no excuse for not having a 85% pot shove left on the river and missing out on the last 9bbs.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (2 handed)
BB ($73.90)
Hero (SB) ($614.10)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8♠, K♠
Hero bets $4, BB calls $2

Flop: ($8) 5♦, 9♥, K♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB calls $5

Turn: ($18) 7♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $13, BB calls $13

River: ($44) 4♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $32, BB calls $32

Total pot: $108 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero had 8♠, K♠ (one pair, Kings).
BB mucked 2♥, 5♥ (one pair, fives).
Outcome: Hero won $107.50

The final hand. Yeah, I flopped two sets vs this poor bastard, not that either were necessary as my bare pairs were good in both cases.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (3 handed)
SB ($56.80)
Hero (BB) ($658.60)
Button ($200)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8♠, 8♣
1 fold, SB bets $6, Hero raises to $18, SB calls $12

Flop: ($36) 8♥, 9♠, 5♠ (2 players)
SB bets $35, Hero raises to $70, SB calls $3.80 (All-In)

Turn: ($113.60) 6♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($113.60) 10♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $113.60 | Rake: $1

Results:
SB had Q♠, 5♥ (one pair, fives).
Hero had 8♠, 8♣ (three of a kind, eights).
Outcome: Hero won $112.60

Overall I think I only took him for ~$350 or so, which isn't a ton given it was $200PL. Good times nonetheless though.

While writing up this post I initiated a cashout, and was shocked to find out that the USD is finally valued above the CAD again. I have a widget on my desktop to monitor the exchange rate, and it must be broken because it has the numbers wrong (it is usually consistent with Stars). I verified Stars rate with a couple websites and it appears to be legit, so huzzah for a ~3% bonus on my cashout. First time I haven't had a negative exchange on the process in what seems like forever, though it's probably a year or less. Hopefully it stays this way.

Sometimes Diligence Pays Off

The games looked pretty lousy on Wednesday night, and as a result it was tough to get more than 12-16 tables open at any given time. Sometimes I'd simply bail and grind at a better time, but I was determined to play a session and a session I did play. Fortunately for me, about halfway through the two hour period a few very good midstakes tables got going resulting in the kind of quick heater dreams are made of.



900/hands per hour sucks, but >$1/hand sure as hell more than makes up for it!

A few of the bigger pots, just 'cause:

This one is a standard stack-a-whale.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (8 handed)
UTG+1 ($609)
MP1 ($558)
MP2 ($630)
CO ($641.65)
Button ($1218.30)
SB ($699)
Hero (BB) ($600)
UTG ($609)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A♦, K♥
2 folds, MP1 bets $18, 2 folds, Button calls $18, SB calls $15, Hero raises to $88, 1 fold, Button calls $70, 1 fold

Flop: ($212) K♣, 10♥, 8♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $189, Button calls $189

Turn: ($590) K♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $323 (All-In), Button calls $323

River: ($1236) 8♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $1236 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 7♣, J♣ (two pair, Kings and eights).
Hero had A♦, K♥ (full house, Kings over eights).
Outcome: Hero won $1233


Aggro reg spazzes out on me at 400NL, a little deep. His 4b sizing is so very terrible.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (7 handed)
Button ($472.65)
SB ($400)
Hero (BB) ($493)
UTG ($360.65)
MP1 ($503.85)
MP2 ($542)
CO ($527.10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q♣, Q♠
4 folds, Button bets $12, 1 fold, Hero raises to $48, Button raises to $184, Hero raises to $493 (All-In), Button calls $288.65 (All-In)

Flop: ($947.30) A♠, 2♥, 4♣ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: ($947.30) A♣ (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($947.30) 8♣ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $947.30 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button mucked 5♠, 5♦ (two pair, Aces and fives).
Hero had Q♣, Q♠ (two pair, Aces and Queens).
Outcome: Hero won $944.30


Finally, a fun one vs an aggrodonk at 200NL. Flop decision is probably pretty close, especially with no BDFD.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (8 handed)
Button ($224.05)
SB ($98)
BB ($245.30)
UTG ($268.35)
UTG+1 ($247.05)
MP1 ($155.95)
MP2 ($200)
Hero (CO) ($200)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A♦, K♠
4 folds, Hero bets $6, 2 folds, BB raises to $27, Hero raises to $61, BB calls $34

Flop: ($123) 10♥, 5♣, 2♣ (2 players)
BB bets $184.30 (All-In), Hero calls $139 (All-In)

Turn: ($401) 10♠ (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($401) 10♦ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $401 | Rake: $3

Results:
BB had A♣, Q♥ (three of a kind, tens).
Hero had A♦, K♠ (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: Hero won $398

I Don't Work Much

A theme from the latter half of last year through the present you may have noticed on this blog is a pretty significant reduction in volume. I've talked about how this partially can be blamed on game quality. In 2009, it was trivial to get 24 decent tables of 100NL open on Pokerstars at just about any time. That is no longer case. With that being said, it also has a lot to do with me simply not putting in the hours. I'm not saying this is a bad thing - I am quite happy with the balance in my life currently, but the fact is on average I only tend to work around 25 hours/week. I really should make a point of not taking for granted how great this lifestyle is as it is really easy to get used to.

Poker this weekend was very good on Friday and pretty mediocre today. I can't seem to find much in the way of interesting hands, which I blame on full ring being full ring!

A few days ago I finished the fan translated version of Mother 3 which I jumped through hoops to be able to play on my DS. It was a good game, but not great like its predecessor Earthbound. It was lacking some in length (too short, took me under 20 hours), had a pretty lackluster ending, and while it absolutely possessed the quirkiness of Earthbound it seemed focused too much on the very linear story to create the type of vibrant world which made the original fantastic.

The highlight of the game was most definitely when the dog, Boney, starts standing on his hind legs while wearing a shirt and cap so he can avoid being bounced at the door of a nightclub. Fortunately for him it isn't long before he's able to go back to being a normal dog on all fours.

It's the First Sunday of the NFL Season, and I'm Watching Hockey

I had a productive weekend on the tables in term of winnings this weekend, though didn't quite muster the volume I wanted. This is partially because there just aren't as many decent games running these days at small stakes. The good ones that are available still have their fair share of big fish and even outright whales (of which there were a surprising number this weekend), so while winrate isn't necessary suffering, hands per hour is. The good news is Pokerstars again increased its deal speed at "fast" tables, so that should help to squeeze in a few extra hands.

I'll post a few noteworthy hands. In the first two, I go from having 100bbs behind at a deep-ante table with an aggrodonk who has been overshoving 300bbs+ in quite frequently, to 550bbs behind in a single orbit. Not being bought in deep to start at this table is a very large mistake on my part, especially with the Jesus seat on the aggrodonk. Obviously I wasn't thinking.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)
MP3 ($250)
CO ($205.15)
Button ($405)
SB ($227)
Hero (BB) ($100)
UTG ($333.80)
UTG+1 ($692.90)
MP1 ($124.60)
MP2 ($260.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q♦, Q♠
UTG bets $3, 3 folds, MP3 calls $3, 2 folds, SB raises to $226.80 (All-In), Hero calls $98.80 (All-In), UTG raises to $333.60 (All-In), 1 fold

Flop: ($558.20) 6♥, 8♠, Q♥ (3 players, 3 all-in)

Turn: ($558.20) J♣ (3 players, 3 all-in)

River: ($558.20) Q♣ (3 players, 3 all-in)

Total pot: $558.20 | Rake: $3

Results:
SB had J♠, 7♠ (two pair, Queens and Jacks).
Hero had Q♦, Q♠ (four of a kind, Queens).
UTG had K♥, A♥ (one pair, Queens).
Outcome: SB won $254, Hero won $301.20

When the original raiser who was also something of a fish called I was not pleased and expected to see KK+, but thankfully he had AK.

Exactly one orbit later this next hand went down. I checked the flop expecting him to overshove, but it took until the river to make it happen.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)
MP2 ($250)
MP3 ($204.95)
CO ($404.80)
Button ($254)
Hero (SB) ($301.20)
BB ($106.80)
UTG ($692.70)
UTG+1 ($124.40)
MP1 ($260.20)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A♣, A♥
5 folds, CO calls $1, Button bets $7, Hero raises to $27.50, 2 folds, Button calls $20.50

Flop: ($58.80) 2♦, J♣, 10♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($58.80) 10♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($58.80) 3♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $226.30 (All-In), Hero calls $226.30

Total pot: $511.40 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 9♣, 4♣ (one pair, tens).
Hero had A♣, A♥ (two pair, Aces and tens).
Outcome: Hero won $508.40

Finally, one hand from today against a large regular who constantly tries to playmaster me. My turn and river play are obviously nonstandard, but I think against this particular guy they are great because he's a lot more likely to try to make me fold a "face up" AQ/KQ/KK/AA when I play it passively then bluff raise a turn barrel. He also can't call a second barrel with much worse than QJ/22/QQ since my flop cbet was multiway with a fish who doesn't like folding.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (8 handed)
Hero (UTG) ($400)
UTG+1 ($470.90)
MP1 ($598.40)
MP2 ($235.30)
CO ($461.90)
Button ($418)
SB ($420)
BB ($388)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7♥, 7♣
Hero bets $12, 1 fold, MP1 calls $12, 4 folds, BB calls $8

Flop: ($38) 7♦, 2♥, Q♠ (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $24, MP1 calls $24, 1 fold

Turn: ($86) J♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $72, Hero calls $72

River: ($230) 6♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $490.40 (All-In), Hero calls $292 (All-In)

Total pot: $814 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had 7♥, 7♣ (three of a kind, sevens).
MP1 had A♠, Q♥ (one pair, Queens).
Outcome: Hero won $811

Outside of poker, as I'm not in any Fantasy Football leagues this year and the Patriots don't play until tomorrow, I haven't watched any football yet today! I have however watched some of the live stream of the first game of the prospect tournament between the Flames/Oilers/Sharks/Canucks/Jets, which has been entertaining.

I picked up two PS3 games recently, Disgaea 4 and Catherine, though I won't get into either until I finish Mother 3. My girlfriend has been playing Catherine and enjoying it however.

I Thought Tragedies Were Supposed To Come In Threes?

This off season has been unbelievably tragic for the hockey world. Three tough guys passed away, Derek Boogaard who I posted about earlier, ex-Canuck Rick Rypien and one of the most media friendly players ever, Wade Belak. As if that wasn't enough, today an out of date Russian aircraft carrying an entire KHL team along with their coaches and staff went down. Only 2 people survived, and from the sounds of things one of the two may end up wishing he hadn't given the extent of his burns. The head coach of said team, Brad McCrimmon, was an ex-Flame as both a player and a coach, winning the cup with us as a defenseman in 1989. Other notable ex-NHLers include Pavol Demitra, Ruslan Salei, and Karel Rachunek.

I actually ran into Brad many years ago, along with his friend and one time Flames teammate Gary Roberts. Both were retired at the time, though Gary would later stage a lengthy comeback and play many more years in the NHL after his neck healed from a serious injury. Surprisingly enough I didn't meet these ex-Flames in Calgary, or even Canada - but at the turtle farm in Grand Cayman. It was ages ago, but I recall them both being very nice and happily signing autographs. I imagine the piece of paper is still around somewhere at my parents house.

Not a lot has been going on poker wise lately, though I did just put in a 2 hour session which ended up being profitable enough. I made one huge mistake in which I flatted a river PSB from a fish instead of shoving in a spot which was a trivial value shove, missing out on something like 40-50bbs worth of value as I'm sure he was calling. Heavy grinding will resume for Friday and Saturday.

I finished a third playthrough of Persona 3 earlier today (specifically, Persona 3 Portable for the PSP, my second time through that version). I'm sure I've said it many times before on the blog, but it truly is an outstanding game, very possibly the best since the turn of the millenium. It also makes me want to own a Shiba (in honor of canine party member Koromaru), the natively Japanese breed of dog pictured below.



In something of a coincidence, the next game I'll be playing also features a playable dog character, this time named Boney. Best name for a dog ever! I've long wanted to play the sequel to Earthbound (Mother 2 in Japan), which was never brought overseas. Thanks to a fan translation I'm able to give Mother 3 a go, and even better after picking up a flash cart and modifying my DS some, I can play it the way it was designed to be played rather than on an emulator. Well, technically I guess the DS acts as a GBA emulator, but you get my point.

Long Time No Blog

It's been a month since I last posted anything, which has got to be the longest stretch without content this blog has suffered. Sorry!

For the latter part of August I was on vacation in different parts of British Columbia. It was a good time, and I got a lot of sun and exercise. Between being sick, on vacation, or just somewhat slacking in general my August volume was quite low, and the early/middle portion of the month saw one of my worst downswings ever. I did recover and manage to ship a passable month considering I put in 60-70k hands however. I missed the monthly review due to being out of town, but it got me thinking of why exactly I feel the need to graph/review each month. Perhaps I'll get away from doing so in the future and focus on content that might be a little more interesting.

I put in some decent volume this weekend to kick off September. Ran awful on Friday and broke even, then decently on Saturday (and well enough today over the short session I played). Half of Saturday's table profit came from a big blind special against a fish who really, really wanted to chase his gutshot drawing dead and got there at 600NL.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (9 handed)
Hero (BB) ($600)
UTG ($614.90)
UTG+1 ($618.85)
MP1 ($306)
MP2 ($722)
MP3 ($579)
CO ($516)
Button ($316.80)
SB ($615)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2♦, 9♣
5 folds, CO calls $6, 2 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($15) 2♣, 9♠, 7♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $12, CO calls $12

Turn: ($39) 2♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $30, CO calls $30

River: ($99) 8♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $84, CO raises to $204, Hero raises to $552 (All-In), CO calls $264 (All-In)

Total pot: $1035 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had 2♦, 9♣ (full house, twos over nines).
CO had 10♥, J♣ (straight, Jack high).
Outcome: Hero won $1032

Definitely the biggest pot I've ever won with 92o!

Vomit Free Since 2003

Poker so far in August has been good over the very small amount of hands I've put in. Since I haven't posted a hand in forever here's one from today that while completely standard/uninteresting, does illustrate why you don't want to blow a fish off air:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (8 handed)
BB ($80)
UTG ($198)
UTG+1 ($275.60)
MP1 ($183)
MP2 ($200)
CO ($203)
Hero (Button) ($200)
SB ($200)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A♥, K♥
2 folds, MP1 bets $7, 2 folds, Hero raises to $24, 2 folds, MP1 calls $17

Flop: ($51) K♠, 5♠, 4♣ (2 players)
MP1 bets $25, Hero calls $25

Turn: ($101) 3♦ (2 players)
MP1 bets $45, Hero calls $45

River: ($191) 4♠ (2 players)
MP1 bets $89 (All-In), Hero calls $89

Total pot: $369 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had A♥, K♥ (two pair, Kings and fours).
MP1 had J♣, Q♦ (one pair, fours).
Outcome: Hero won $366

Got to maximize against the old no pair no draw.

My August volume so far has sucked because I've been sick. It's the first time I've been under the weather in over a year, and this morning I had the unfortunate experience of vomiting for the first time in ages. The post title may be off, the last time could well have been on 2005 or 2006, but regardless it's been a hell of a long time. Hopefully I can go another 5+ years without the feeling of partially digested orange juice and granola bar using my nose as an overflow valve.

The market crash of the past week has been a discouraging turn of events for my retirement portfolio, but since I imagine I won't be touching those funds for 10-30+ years, no big deal. The silver lining has been that the US dollar made up ~4%+ on the CDN dollar, which is big for me every time I withdraw. Hopefully it can pick up another 5-10 cents over the next few months.

July Review - 3/10

July had the potential to be a strong month as it contained five Fridays and five Saturdays which are typically the strongest days for game selection. Additionally, I was inevitably going to hit the 300k VPP milestone bonus during the month, so I was hoping for big things.

Unfortunately, I ran pretty terribly for much of the month, finding myself out a little north of 1bb/100 in AIEV along with being on the wrong end of a ton of coolers. Plus, like every month if I pot/pot/shove QQ on Q82r into a whale's A5o that isn't folding I am drawing stone dead to his backdoor gutshot.

On the positive side, the last two days of grinding were pretty successful, and I did bink $444.50 for being involved in a promotional milestone hand this month. Last year I was dealt into a milestone hand holding 62o and took the thing down for double prize money, but this year 62o was drawing to two outs on the river and couldn't connect for sweet victory. Still a nice bonus though!



The bottom line:
$4850.36 table winnings
+$2897.27 FPP value (51,737 VPPs * 3.5FPPs/VPP *1.6c/FPP)
+$2800 300k VPP milestone bonus
+$444.50 milestone hand #64,985,000,000
+$100 deposit bonus
----------------------------------------------------
$11,092.13 USD total profit.

Not a pretty number considering the potential, though five figures is never a complete disaster. I do not have high expectations for August, as I'll be taking a week of vacation near the end and I'll also be cutting at least half of my usual grind on the first Saturday to take in a Stampeders game. With a little run good hopefully my table winnings rebound some during the month, but even if that is the case it'll be tough to reach ten dimes simply because the volume won't be there.

As for the remainder of 2011, I'll have something of a decision after August, when I figure I'll be sitting around ~350k yearly VPPs. In order to maximize relative rakeback level (and as a result, hourly), I should either slack off mightily the rest of the year and only put in another 150k VPPs worth of volume over the final four months finishing at the 500k milestone, or grind quite hard (not quite SNE level volume, but not terribly far off) to reach the 600k milestone putting in ~62.5k VPPs/month. With my girlfriend starting school in September, getting myself into a better routine and playing more hours might not be a bad idea, but currently my gut feeling is I'll be going the former route and spending the extra time looking at some business ventures outside of poker.

Two Types Of Milestones

Thursday and Friday at the tables were particularly awful, crippling any real chance for July to end up as a solid month. On Friday I basically had two ~$1k downswing/comeback combinations, which wasn't fun at all. Today was much better, as I booked a ~$1k win.

Additionally, I profited from two different types of milestones this weekend. On Friday I rolled over 300k VPPs, and collected the $2.8k bonus for that achievement. On Saturday I was dealt into a Milestone Hand as part of Pokerstars' 65 billionth hand promotion. Unfortunately I couldn't bink a 2 outer on the river to win the thing, but still picked up $444.50 in bonus money for the hand (which cost me ~$40 or so calling down trying to improve with 62o for double bonus money). I've run really well in terms of being dealt into milestone hands during these promotions - this was the fourth time I've been involved in one (with two coming last year, and one in 2009 I believe). The only unfortunate part is that it occurred at a table which had formed ~25 or so hands previous, and as the prize money is relative to how many VPPs you have earned at that table over the last 50 hands, it limited the payouts some. Either way, the ~$450 bonus together with $1k off the tables and some FPP value made for an encouraging day.

Reminiscing

Over the last two days I've spent a little time going over some of my blog entries from 2008 (and fixing some of the HHs associated which were broken due to a now defunct converter). When you look back at the ecosystem that is online poker and how it was three years ago compared to today, it really is night and day. Outside of few specific moments (see: Black Friday), the change has been gradual, yet it really hasn't happened all that slowly.

Obviously, the games today are significantly tougher to beat. I was (relative to my current self) terrible in 2008 yet had no problem crushing the games. Additionally, game selection is now very hard for a mass multitabler. In 2008, and even through much of 2009, it was easy to get 24 decent tables of small stakes full ring action open on Pokerstars within minutes of starting a session. Today, at all but peak times 24 quality tables can be very difficult to impossible to find, and to maintain them requires constant lobby attention. This made putting in volume a heck of a lot easier back in the day, as you'd have 24 tables open almost right away and if a game died finding a replacement was easy. It's still a little scary to think that I put in 150-200k months back then while working a 40 hour week at my 9-5 though.

It sure would be awesome for another poker boom to occur at some point in the next few years. Regulation in the US, done right, could lead to one, though my feeling is that even if US fish find a way back into the market, it might only add another year or two to the lifespan of the online grinder. I'll certainly be riding the wave as an online pro for another year or two, but it definitely seems as though every dollar I earn today I had a work a hell of a lot harder for compared to 2008 or 2009.

Seven Straight

After the month started with ~50k hands of terrible variance, the last week was refreshing though I certainly wouldn't call it a heater. I did manage to play on all seven days of the week, which is something I haven't done in a long time. I also turned a profit in table winnings each day, which was nice. Game quality was decent, though tonight in particular it seems a little spotty for a Saturday, which is why I'm posting here rather than grinding at the moment. I'll likely put in one more session later tonight regardless.



When my hourly in table winnings alone is north of $100/h, you won't find me complaining.

I recently finished up the entirety of FFIV Complete Collection for the PSP, which is a remake of the original featuring updating sprites, character portraits and an arranged soundtrack, along with a remake of the much more recent "After Years" content that was released for cell phones in Japan and for the Wii in North America. While IV ranks as my third favorite Final Fantasy of all-time, the remakes were fantastic and I had a lot of fun. I'll inevitably end up going through the original FFIV again several more times, so for $30 the package is pretty amazing value.

Having Fun

The fact is, I typically don't have a lot of fun playing poker anymore. This is natural for any hobby that becomes a "grindy" job I'd imagine, but it is definitely something I miss. Fortunately, there are still forms of poker that are indeed quite a bit of fun and I've taken to playing some micro 6max PLO again purely for the enjoyment. I learn new things, and get to play on tables where with no game selection whatsoever there are on average 4 droolers. Pretty sure someone with basic PLO knowledge could sustain 15ptBB/100 at 2PLO quite easily, especially since you can buy in 250bb deep on all tables.

The NLH grind was really painful at the beginning of the month due to epic runbad, but my last few short weekday session have been ok. I actually played a hand last session that I thought was super interesting (these don't pop up all that often) against a pretty spazzy reg where I took a weird line with a flush draw, turned the second nuts and flatted his lead, and then had a sick situation where he overbet (only a little, like 48 into 40 or something) the blank river. As he'd assume I never have a flush due to the flop check back folding is out of the question, but if I raise he's crazy enough to jam the bare ace blocker some of the time, which is the hand he ended up with. I ended up just flatting, but I think raise/calling is better.

The CFL is back in season, and the Stamps are 1-1 so far. I watched their most recent game in which they held an 8 point lead, with the ball, with just enough time left that they couldn't simply take two knees to run out the clock. Somehow our (overall, very good) QB Henry Burris manages to botch the hand off and turn the ball over, making for an interesting last minute where the defense had to step up, and did. The thing about Burris is that while he's great most of the time, when he is not great it can be some of the most epic fail on a football field you have ever seen. He played one series last year that is by far the worst possession from a quarterback I have ever witnessed period, and I watch a lot of football.

That's A Lot Of Cameos

Tough to decide which cameo is my favorite. Perhaps the Kara Scott "hadouken".

June Review - Vacationish

I don't really have a whole lot to say about June. I opted to take what I'd consider to be pretty close to a vacation month, spending 10 days in Vegas (busting a $1.5k WSOP event to a back door flush draw). When I was in town I really only played Fridays/Saturdays and didn't work terribly hard on those days either.

The result obviously isn't very impressive financially, and it didn't help that I ran like ass over the ~50k hands I put in. That being said, given the -$1.5k WSOP handicap and the volume, at least I didn't have a losing month!



The bottom line:
$2069.20 table winnings
+$1233.34 FPP value (22024 VPPs * 3.5FPPs/VPP * 1.6c/FPP)
+$46.29 coaching
-$1500 WSOP #18
--------------------------------------
$1848.83 USD total profit.

I've got pretty high hopes for a July, for four reasons:

(1) There are five full weekends!
(2) I feel fresh, as I haven't been doing a whole lot of grinding lately. 50k VPPs minimum, hopefully closer to 60k.
(3) I'll hit the 300k milestone bonus in July, for $2800.
(4) Pokerstars just launched a new deposit bonus for a free $100, which should hopefully also improve game quality.

Time to get to work.