August Review - +Life EV, -Poker EV

My original title for this post was going to be "(Second) Worst. Month. Ever." When considering only poker results, said title would have been entirely accurate. Whenever I have an awful month, I inevitably have to think back and and decide if it was worse than February 2009, which set a standard pretty tough to beat. During Feb '09 my results were I believe as much dictated by bad play while adjusting to painfully high volume as brutal variance. This month however, I ran as poorly as I ever have in terms of just about every aspect of variance that is close to measurable or even roughly estimable (meaning stuff like AIEV, set% in the first category, or set over set coolers, KK vs AA coolers and such in the second). It's been a real downward slope for me variance wise this year, as I ran pretty well from the start of January (especially the first three days) through the end of March, and haven't managed a month out less than 2000bbs AIEV since.

Anyway, it all boiled down to be a downright terrible month at the tables. It didn't help that I had two major downswings (/salute Major Downswing: if you don't watch How I Met Your Mother, you won't get this), the latter of which has got to be one of my three worst ever. Fortunately, I had a lot of other positive stuff going on which I'll talk about after I get the numbers out of the way.



The bottom line:
$4662.60 table winnings
+$4239.28 FPP value (52,991 VPPs * 5 FPPs/VPP * 1.6c/FPP)
+$400 quarterly freeroll cash
+$348.79 credit from Stars busting the shortstack bot ring
+$375 coaching
------------------------------------------------------
$10,025.67 USD total profit.

Some of you may be interested to note that of my hands played this month, ~5.5k were on FTP. During the last few days I set up everything necessary for me to play cross site, and I've had some decent results messing around with it. The 35-100bb 100NL games on FTP seem much better quality wise than Stars, but the FTP software really is something of a turnoff. I'll likely split my volume a little bit next month, and perhaps significantly more after my SNE status lapses at the end of September.

While it was a disgusting month poker wise, I did have a lot of other good things happen in August. The first episode of my Cardrunners video series launched and has been well received - look for Episode 2 in the fairly near future. My best friend who had been renting my basement for the past year and a half moved out and into his own place close by, so I now have another 800 square feet of house, which is likely going to be turned into a poker room/bar. My girlfriend and I (particularly the former) have put some effort recently into redecorating/organizing, and I'm really thrilled with how the house is looking. I picked up Ys 7 for the PSP midway through the month, and it's a damn good game, I'll talk more about it in a future post. All in all, lots of positives to take from August, and it is actually something of a reassurance that I can have a borderline disastrous month where I don't even put in much in the way of volume and still ship five figures, not needing a milestone bonus to so.

On that note, I expect much greater things from September. I'm hoping to increase my volume a bit compared to both July and August, and I will be clearing a milestone worth just over three grand which should help out. I imagine being able to put in a good 20-30k hands on FTP when I'm having difficulty getting 24 tables open on Stars is going to help things too. It's even possible my variance freefall will hit bottom soon and I'll bounce, you never do know! September will also contain my final SNE perk: I'll be freerolling the $5.2k WCOOP main event. This will be my last SNE 2009 sponsored chance to seriously luckbox (granted, I did cash at EPT MC but I'm talking final table quality luckboxaments or better)! Lets do this thing September!

Cardrunners Video Series + Bot Credit from Stars

The first episode of my video series for Cardrunners entitled "Full Ring: Theory and Practice" was released today. The video itself is here, though you'll have to be a subscriber to watch the whole thing! Initial reviews appear to be positive which is reassuring as I've never produced a video before.

Cardrunners also posted a short interview with me, which you can find here. If you read this blog frequently, it won't contain much you don't already know however!

A few moments ago I received an email from Pokerstars informing me of an account credit because I had been involved in hands with players who had been breaking the terms of service and had their accounts frozen/funds seized. I've had this happen once before for a fairly trivial amount and had no idea who the players were. This time, I'm fairly certain I know exactly who the offenders were - the bot ring that was the subject of this post. Anyway, my credit was in the amount of $348.79. I'm all for free money and happy to see anything recouped. Pokerstars also mentioned in the email that: "In addition, in this particular case, PokerStars decided to make a substantial contribution to the compensation pool", which should significantly remedy the PR hit they took over the issue.

Outside of poker, I picked up Ys 7 today for the PSP, which is an action RPG that has been very well reviewed. I'm right around two hours in, and it's been solid so far. Quality visuals and music along with a very responsive and enjoyable combat system which is crucial to any action RPG.

There Are No Words

Instead of a rant trying to describe my insane continuing runbad, I'll leave you today with something truly special. Occasionally people will put something together that is insanely awesome. This video falls into that category. The poem was originally written by a 2p2er based on the Bling Blang Blaow fad. So. Much. Awesome.

Just One

It'd be nice if of my many all-ins with 85%+ equity, I could win just one per day. Just one. Get AA in 10 times AIPF? Winning one would be a huge upgrade. Get top set in five times versus backdoor draws? Winning one out of five would be a massive heater for me. Instead, I get hand after hand after hand like this:

PokerStars Game #48489337770: Hold'em No Limit (€1/€2 EUR) - 2010/08/21 19:55:31 MT [2010/08/21 21:55:31 ET]
Table 'Lepus III' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: Ronfar3 (€281.90 in chips)
Seat 4: DuckinF0nk (€292.65 in chips)
Ronfar3: posts small blind €1
DuckinF0nk: posts big blind €2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ronfar3 [Ah Ad]
Ronfar3: raises €4 to €6
DuckinF0nk: raises €16 to €22
Ronfar3: calls €16
*** FLOP *** [6h Ac 3s]
DuckinF0nk: bets €26
Ronfar3: calls €26
*** TURN *** [6h Ac 3s] [4h]
DuckinF0nk: bets €244.65 and is all-in
Ronfar3: calls €233.90 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (€10.75) returned to DuckinF0nk
*** RIVER *** [6h Ac 3s 4h] [5d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DuckinF0nk: shows [7d 8d] (a straight, Four to Eight)
Ronfar3: shows [Ah Ad] (three of a kind, aces)
DuckinF0nk collected €563.30 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot €563.80 | Rake €0.50
Board [6h Ac 3s 4h 5d]
Seat 2: Ronfar3 (button) (small blind) showed [Ah Ad] and lost with three of a kind, aces
Seat 4: DuckinF0nk (big blind) showed [7d 8d] and won (€563.30) with a straight, Four to Eight

Sorry for the unconverted text, the FTR converter doesn't support Euro tables. Villain is a retardedly aggro regfish on a heater obviously, or I'd 4b pre.

In all seriously though, I got AA in three times today AIPF, twice vs AK once vs Q9o, lost all 3. Top set in vs an overpair where you could tell the regular was intending to bet/fold the turn, but instead time down spew called most likely because he remembered it was me and as 5% equity is more than 0% equity, he cannot possibly lose. Lots of other standard nut hands drawing dead vs backdoor draws etc. Would be so nice if Stars would just take $100 out of my account for every 1000 hands I play, but allow me to run like everyone else not named TwoSmeets or Coordi.

I'd just like to win one where they aren't drawing dead when the money goes in, but that's far too much to ask I guess. Luckily there's always FPPs and fish that'll stack underpairs vs my quads drawing dead, so I can still beat the rake.

That's Right, I Said "Rapping Tomato"

There once was a rapping tomato. That's right I said rapping tomato. He rapped all day, from April to May...

Anyway, the grind has been nothing short of utterly disappointing lately. So much for the steady mediocrity of the first half of August, now I can no longer win a single 95/5, 90/10, 85/15 etc per session.

In other news, my first Cardrunners video is scheduled to be released this Monday! It is planned to be the first in a series directed at microstakes full ring players looking to develop good fundamentals. Episode one deals entirely with preflop play and is mostly abstract theory with a short commentated session at the end. I'm hoping people like it. Cardrunners has made a clear targeted effort to beef up their full ring content over the last few months (the one real area in which they were previously lacking) and by getting full ringers like Damn Ringer, d_smith77 (aka cb4mvp) and myself putting videos together will hopefully help them in this regard.

I finished Grandia 2 the other day, after calling it "the best console RPG that I've never replayed, outside of Persona 4" a few blog posts ago. Yeah... I went way too far on that one, nostalgia can do funny things I guess. I remember when the PS2 port of the game was released it took a lot of flack from reviewers for technical issues that didn't bug me my first time through, mainly video slowdown. While they didn't really make me angry or hurt my enjoy of the game this time, they certainly were VERY noticeable. The plot/characters also weren't the quality I remembered, especially breaking down near the end, though it could of been worse. At least the Grandia battle system is guaranteed win. The game was entertaining enough for me to make it all the way a second a time and enjoy myself, but there are definitely better games that I have never replayed.

Mismatched

My poker sessions on Saturday were particularly brutal, but I managed to pick up a few hundred playing an hour on Sunday.

More interestingly, the Stampeders hosted the straight up not very good Edmonton Eskimos, and slaughtered them in a gong show of a game that ended with a ton of penalties/ejections for unnecessary roughness and unsportsmanlike conduct. Watching Edmonton fail epically is good therapy for any Calgarian.

I've been putting in a few games of Starcraft daily mostly of the 3v3 and 4v4 variety, and while I'm decently competent I'm haven't really attempted to take my game to a high level yet. On Sunday I played a 4v4 match in which I basically destroyed all four of my teams opponents, which little help from my largely incompetent teammates - though thankfully for me the opposition was equally bad. A screenshot from the post-match score screen (score actually is a decent representation in SC/SC2, though doesn't measure micromanagement skills terribly well):

Tough To Follow

Poker in August thus far has been very similar to June - a lot of pretty middle of the road results. This is ok with me, as while I do love the occasional big upswing, I've played 9 days on the month so far and have been positive off the tables for each.

Here's the closest thing I could find to an interesting hand from Thursday's session:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)
MP1 ($100)
MP2 ($115.90)
MP3 ($94.75)
CO ($100)
Button ($100)
SB ($100)
Hero (BB) ($100.10)
UTG ($111.15)
UTG+1 ($138.80)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A♣, A♥
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, 4 folds, Button bets $3.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $13.50, 1 fold, Button calls $10

Flop: ($28.50) 7♠, 10♣, 5♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $15, Button calls $15

Turn: ($58.50) 3♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $22.50, Button raises to $71.50 (All-In), Hero calls $49

River: ($201.50) K♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $201.50 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 6♥, 7♥ (one pair, sevens).
Hero had A♣, A♥ (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: Hero won $198.50

Villain is an FPP pro who can't quite beat the rake at 100NL FR, and doesn't like folding to 3bets. The UTG limper is a loose/passive fish running 31/4. I really hate his iso raise pre, as 76s plays great both multiway and with a high SPR, so overlimping is likely far superior. I 3b because the FPP pro reg only folds 45% of the time over a huge sample. Postflop, I don't mind his flop call and he picks up a gutter on the turn. Shoving the turn is awful though, as all he accomplishes is making A high that might bluff shove the river fold, getting snapped off by my entire value range.

After having so much fun my second time through Persona 3 (this time the recent portable incarnation) I had a hankering to start up another console RPG right away. My initial desire was to give Persona 4 a second go, but I decided against it for two reasons. First, it's only been a year and a half or so since I finished it in the first place, and second, as 3 is definitely the better game I fear following with 4 would be something of a let down, despite 4 being a great game in its own right.

So, instead of Persona 4 which I'll let sit for at least another couple months, I chose what I figure is the best game I've only ever played through a single time to have the dubious honor of trying to follow P3P - that game being Grandia 2. I remember my first time through the game being pleasantly surprised as reviewers had been very critical, suggesting it didn't come close to living up to the original (a game which I hold in very high regard and HAVE played through more than once). I however thoroughly enjoyed it and thought it at the very least gave the original Grandia a run for its money. Too bad there hasn't been a quality Grandia game since. Anyway, I'm three or four hours into Grandia 2 and remembering very quickly all the things I liked about the game - though there definitely is some downside I could see bugging people, which probably explains the harsh reviews.

Memento Mori

After playing an incredibly brief 340 hand session in which I profited a little more than $1/hand, I set out to finish Persona 3 Portable tonight. I had completed almost all the optional content so the last battles were trivial. Despite knowing exactly what would happen and the portable version lacking anime cutscenes which definitely add some storytelling punch, the ending still hits like a truck. Truly, the game does an incredible job with the characters having to come to terms with their own mortality. It most definitely is deserving of being hailed as the best game of the past decade. If you even remotely enjoy any sort of role playing game or just a great story and haven't played some version of Persona 3, you owe it to yourself to remedy this! My one real complaint about the PS2 version was that the game felt a little too long, but the PSP version was just the right length even with my exploration of optional content. It is too bad the cutscenes had to be removed though.

Tomorrow I'll be stopping by Electronics Boutique to pick up a PSP3000 system which with a cable accessory will allow me to play PSP games on my TV. I'm also planning on grabbing Madden 11 and jumping right in to football fanaticism a little early this year. Looking forward to the start of the NFL season and my fantasy football endeavors!

Quarterly Freerollaments and River Overshoves

Last night I set my alarm clock to wake up at 11:45AM because the good folks in the Stars Regulars Thread of the SSFR forum at 2p2 reminded me that the quarterly million dollar freeroll for Supernova+ VIPs was on Saturday. Waking up at 11:45 was painful, as I really like my sleep and typically do so from around 5AM to 2PM. It did prove to be a fruitful endeavor however as I managed to cash for a quick $400.

Unfortunately, the cash games were super dead while the tourney was being played because so many regulars were online, so it was difficult to have more than 6-8 additional tables going until folks started to bust and head out to do whatever they do on their Saturdays. I did play a later session when the games were decent, but definitely wish I could have put in a little more volume. Slacking off to watch the Stampeders game on TV didn't help the cause either.

During the late session, I was in a spot against a fish at a pot limit holdem table where I really wanted to overshove the river but couldn't because it was pot limit! When dealing with fish, it is not at all uncommon to find spots where overbet shoving the river (even if it's an obscene overbet - see second HH below) is by far the option with the highest expected value, simply because they're not folding hands of a certain strength or above period - but they also aren't going to raise without the nuts or close to it. Shortly after the hand in question, I found myself in a similar situation overbet shoving 125.5bbs into a 5.5bb pot at a 100NL table against a fish, in which I was hoping to be called by an A high one card flush (on a paired board versus my boat, obviously). He thought about it and called it off with the K high flush. The HHs in question are below:

PokerStars Pot-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed)
MP2 ($105.50)
CO ($107.15)
Button ($100)
SB ($144.25)
BB ($102.75)
Hero (UTG) ($100)
UTG+1 ($83.30)
MP1 ($100)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7♠, 7♣
Hero bets $3.50, 5 folds, SB calls $3, 1 fold

Flop: ($8) 3♥, 4♣, A♣ (2 players)
SB bets $1, Hero calls $1

Turn: ($10) 7♥ (2 players)
SB bets $2, Hero raises to $15.50, SB calls $13.50

River: ($41) A♥ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $39, SB calls $39

Here is where I desperately wanted to overshove, as I'm confident he's almost never folding trips and most definitely not a small flush, but is also never raising with them. Damn you pot limit!

Total pot: $119 | Rake: $3

Results:
SB mucked A♠, J♠ (three of a kind, Aces).
Hero had 7♠, 7♣ (full house, sevens over Aces).
Outcome: Hero won $116


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed)
UTG+1 ($107.55)
MP1 ($110.30)
MP2 ($79.55)
CO ($105.65)
Button ($100)
SB ($100)
Hero (BB) ($128.10)
UTG ($206)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2♥, J♥
UTG calls $1, 6 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($2.50) 3♣, J♣, J♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

Turn: ($2.50) 2♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, UTG calls $1.50

River: ($5.50) 6♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $125.60 (All-In), UTG calls $125.60

Total pot: $256.70 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had 2♥, J♥ (full house, Jacks over twos).
UTG had K♣, 7♠ (flush, King high).
Outcome: Hero won $253.70

Session Saving/Record Breaking

Near the end of a typical Thursday session of running several hundred big blinds below AIEV I played what is now my largest pot to date at a 600NL table against a big donk. Truly the definition of a session saver. HH below followed by short commentary:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (6 handed)
SB ($774)
BB ($766.60)
UTG ($982.90)
Hero (MP) ($728.90)
CO ($600)
Button ($825)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K♠, 10♠
UTG calls $6, Hero bets $24, 4 folds, UTG calls $18

Flop: ($57) Q♦, 8♦, 3♠ (2 players)
UTG bets $24, Hero raises to $66, UTG calls $42

Turn: ($189) K♥ (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $114, UTG raises to $892.90 (All-In), Hero calls $524.90 (All-In)

River: ($1466.80) A♠ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $1466.80 | Rake: $3

Results:
UTG had Q♠, 7♠ (one pair, Queens).
Hero had K♠, 10♠ (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: Hero won $1463.80

I had played with the villain previously, and over 12 opportunities he had donkbet the flop each and every time which explains my flop raise. After I bink the turn, he was running around 50/20 preflop, so there are very few hands I'm concerned about as I'm fairly certain he's raising KQ preflop (and definitely AK). Since he didn't 3bet the flop, it's very doubtful he has a hand like 33 or Q8. Thus, if I'm behind the only hands that really makes much sense are K8 or KJdd, and he's a complete spaz so he can definitely be playing any type of draw as well as Qx this way.

Moving on, my girlfriend is out of town for eleven days starting tonight. As a result I really have no excuse for not putting in solid volume the next two weekends. During the weekdays I should also have lots of time to enjoy P3P and SC2.