A Little Poker, Lots Of WoW, and One Really Interesting Hand

Most of my time this weekend has been spent (expectantly) playing World of Warcraft which recently launched its second expansion, Wrath of the Lich King. It's been good times so far, and I'll leave it at that for now.

I still managed to squeeze in 21k hands this weekend. I'm not sure whether to be disappointed in that total or not. It certainly won't cut it in the future, though.

Here's my winnings graph for the weekend. Very swingy, but they don't affect me too much anymore. Note that this is the first Hold'em Manager graph I've posted on this blog! Get used to them, the tool kicks ass and is clearly the market leader.


Moving on, I played one hand on Saturday which I found to be very interesting from a hand reading perspective. I'll take you through the hand and why it is so intriguing.

Villain is a reg nit, and runs around 10/7. I've played a lot of hands with him and I do not remember him ever spewing bigtime post flop.


Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players

Hero (MP1): $201.20 (201.2 bb)
MP2: $111.95 (112 bb)
MP3: $88.50 (88.5 bb)
CO: $38.35 (38.4 bb)
BTN: $101 (101 bb)
SB: $101.85 (101.9 bb)
BB: $101.35 (101.4 bb)
UTG: $15.50 (15.5 bb)
UTG+1: $19.50 (19.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP1 with Qd Kd
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, 4 folds, SB calls $3.50, BB calls $3

Standard raise for me. I actually raise KQs in EP some of the time as well.

Flop: ($12) Ac 9d Jh (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

This is actually a pretty decent spot to c-bet, even three ways. Plus we have a gutshot for backup. Checking is likely a small mistake relative to betting.

Turn: ($12) Td (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $8, Hero raises to $26, SB folds, BB calls $18

We turn the nuts, and get bet at by our nit reg. His range at this point is AK/AQ and sets. Very well defined. We raise, SB folds, and reg calls. His range now is polarized to exactly sets. His call here is interesting though, as you may be thinking that he should be shoving all day. He elects not to shove because he (probably) knows that my raising range is going to be straights and AQdd which chose not to bet the flop (checking AQdd on the flop would have been ok, very little that we beat calls). He probably would also put AA in my range, though I don't think I ever slowplay AA on that flop 3 ways.

Thus, he decides to call and see if he can improve to a boat via the board pairing, or failing that if he will take down the pot when my AQdd bricks its flush and checks behind the river. This isn't a bad call, I think it is probably the right play.

River: ($64) Jd (2 players)
BB bets $36, Hero raises to $169, BB calls $35.35 and is all-in

The board pairs, also completing the flush. Villain bets a little over half pot, almost exactly half his remaining stack. This is a very good bet on this part - it allows for my flushes to make a crying a call, when they might fold to a ~pot size shove.

What he doesn't expect (and hates to see) is my shove. He knows my made flushes probably aren't shoving here (it's definitely a mistake to shove a flush against villain's range, which is a boat here). Thus, he really doesn't beat anything. But he has a full house, and what could I possibly have? It's very doubtful I have AA (and he's right, I almost never do). That only leaves a straight flush that could be shoving. It's tough to give anyone credit for a straight flush, so he can't find the fold button, especially getting great 5:1 odds.

It's interesting to note that villain timed all the way down before calling the river shove. I'm quite certain he highly suspected that I had the straight flush, and almost hero folded. It would have been quite a fold.

Results: $206.70 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Qd Kd (a straight flush, Nine to King) and won $203.70 ($102.35 net)
BB mucked Th Tc (a full house, Tens full of Jacks) and lost (-$101.35 net)

Sometimes You Just Have To (Spontaneously) Move On

In the middle of a strategy session with my buddy Will yesterday, we decided to check out HEM (Hold'em Manager), a competitor to Pokertracker which many folks have begun using. After one day of using the trial, I think its safe to say that I will be using HEM going forward. There is just so much great functionality, and I'm already reaping the benefits of having 3-bet/fold to 3-bet stats available in my HUD, which is now configured as follows:

VPIP/PFR/AF/Hands
-----------------
3-bet/Fold to 3-bet/Steal
-----------------
Fold to Flop C-bet/Fold to turn 2nd barrel/Cbet %

This already includes 4 more stats (3-bet, Fold to 3-bet, Steal, Fold to 2nd barrel) than were on the main display of my old HUD.

Unfortunately, what this also means is that I will no longer have pretty PokerEV graphs to post. However, HEM does have built in all-in EV calculations, so my graphs can still include that. Set-o-meter results will also no longer be obtainable. I guess I'll have to do without those tools, which didn't add a whole lot of real value anyway. They were reassuring at times I felt I was running bad though. Time to focus less on running good/bad and more about making the right decisions and maximizing winrate.

I'm Just A Play Machine

It felt like I was making more moves than normal this weekend, which is probably a good thing. Due to my image, most of my moves tend to work. I think a few nit regs have started calling my 3-bets light because they know I 3-bet a lot of small pairs and SCs in position, but this is actually +EV for me because they're normally OOP and have to fold to a flop half pot c-bet anyway.

I also ran a nice 3-barrel bluff which worked, and played a very interesting hand against a good 200/400 NL reg that was slumming at 100NL for whatever reason. We have almost no history, but he should know I am 2+2er and a winning player. Here is the hand in question, with commentary:

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players

UTG+1: $128.05 (128.1 bb)
MP1: $145.35 (145.4 bb)
MP2: $18 (18 bb)
MP3: $44.50 (44.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $105.20 (105.2 bb)
BTN: $28.40 (28.4 bb)
SB: $159.10 (159.1 bb)
BB: $213.70 (213.7 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with Kc Ah
UTG+1 folds, MP1 raises to $2, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $8, BTN folds, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 raises to $14, Hero calls $6

Villain is a LAG, and minraises as many 400NL regs like to do. I think minraising is probably spew at 100NL on weekends especially, but that's a discussion for another time. I 3-bet, and villain minraises me back. It occurred to me at the time that villain is likely doing this with more than half of his opening range, and that the main purpose of it is to grab a hold of the postflop "initiative" in the hand, expecting me to fold to a half pot c-bet on a lot of flops.

I'm obviously never folding here, and 5-betting is actually a good option. With position however I elect to call and play poker. Note that if I'm not going to make a move on some dry flops that I miss (that misses most of his range as well), it is most definitely better to 5-bet.

Flop: ($29.50) 6h Jd Jc (2 players)
MP1 bets $15, Hero raises to $30, MP1 folds

Here comes the expected half pot c-bet on an extremely dry board. I think this is a perfect spot to mainraise bluff, because villain is going to have to fold much of his range. AK/AQ probably fold, as do pairs smaller than Jacks and possibly even QQ (ok, this particular reg probably doesn't actually fold QQ here, but some would). I end up risking $30 to win $45, so villain only has to fold 40% of the time for it to be EV neutral. In practice, I'm fairly certain villain folds >50% of the time, making is significantly +EV.

This hand functioned as a bit of a eureka moment for me. In 3-bet pots, mainraise bluffing can be a deadly tool that very few players use. It is especially effective because you are effectively risking the minimum possible on a bluff that will get very close to the same amount of credit as a shove. The key is to balance it with your nut hands in a similar fashion on dry boards. Thus, if a villain decides to shove over your mainraise with their missed AK, they'll be running into your AA/KK a decent amount of the time. I will be making much more use of this move in the future.

Results: $59.50 pot ($2.90 rake)
Hero mucked Kc Ah (a pair of Jacks) and won $56.60 ($27.60 net)

Finally, here are my EV and luck graphs for the weekend. I ran a little good in Sklansky EV, and a little bad in all-in EV, for a total of $2.7k profit ($2.2k winnings, $500 rakeback). I really need to play more hands on the weekends, 22.5k isn't going to cut it going forward.

November Goals

Setting goals is one way to stay motivated, and I'm a goal oriented person in general. Thus, I figure I'd better get off my ass and set some goals for this month:

1) Play 135,000 hands
On the one hand, I have a week+ booked off from work in the middle of the month. On the other hand, Wrath of the Lich King is released to start that time and I have a gaming backlog as it is. 135k hands should be an aggressive goal, but I will be dissapointed if I fall short of my volume goals three months in a row (though I did come very, very close the previous two months).

2) 2,000 hands at 400NL, 18,000 hands at 200NL
Given the typical game conditions this should hopefully be realistic. It is actually quite feasible I end up playing more hands than this at 400NL and less at 200NL, depending on weekend game conditions. I guess we'll see.

3) Run one three barrel bluff per session against a regular (when they likely don't have a set or better).
I think it is definitely EV for me to bluff more post flop, and an occasional three barrel is something that has been lacking from my game lately.

Multiway Pots Gone Wild

My first 14k hands of November have been interesting to say the least. I started to mix in a tiny bit of 400NL (at a table with 3 donkeys - if I can find more of these tables it'll be awesome) which unfortunately didn't go terribly well.

It felt like I've run really really bad, but the results have been solid winrate wise. This is solely because I won three really big pots, two of which had four(!) players all-in by the end of the hand (in both of these I had top set). In one of these hands, all four players had ~100BB behind, and it was the largest amount I've won in a single hand of 100NL. In the third hand, three players with close to full stacks were all in.

Here are the HHs, with the most impressive first:

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players

SB: $59.40 (59.4 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): $100 (100 bb)
MP1: $100 (100 bb)
MP2: $100 (100 bb)
MP3: $126.80 (126.8 bb)
CO: $100 (100 bb)
BTN: $98.50 (98.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG+1 with Kh Kd
Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, MP3 calls $4, CO calls $4, BTN calls $4, SB calls $3.50, BB folds

Flop: ($21) Jd 9d Kc (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $16.50, MP3 calls $16.50, CO raises to $47, BTN calls $47, SB folds, Hero raises to $96 and is all-in, MP3 raises to $122.80 and is all-in, CO calls $49 and is all-in, BTN calls $47.50 and is all-in

Turn: ($403.50) 4s (4 players, 4 are all-in)
River: ($403.50) 9s (4 players, 4 are all-in)

Results: $403.50 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Kh Kd (a full house, Kings full of Nines) and won $400.50 ($300.50 net)
MP3 mucked Ad 5d (a pair of Nines) and lost (-$100 net)
CO mucked Td 8d (a pair of Nines) and lost (-$100 net)
BTN mucked Ks As (two pairs, Kings and Nines) and lost (-$98.50 net)



Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players

UTG+1: $223.20 (223.2 bb)
MP1: $117.90 (117.9 bb)
MP2: $84.35 (84.4 bb)
Hero (MP3): $165.20 (165.2 bb)
CO: $144.90 (144.9 bb)
BTN: $97.50 (97.5 bb)
SB: $171.05 (171.1 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with Td Tc
3 folds, Hero raises to $4, CO calls $4, BTN calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($13.50) 5d Ts Kc (3 players)
Hero bets $9.50, CO calls $9.50, BTN calls $9.50

Turn: ($42) 6c (3 players)
Hero bets $26, CO raises to $52, BTN raises to $84 and is all-in, Hero raises to $151.70 and is all-in, CO calls $79.40 and is all-in

River: ($388.80) 6d (3 players, 3 are all-in)

Results: $388.80 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Td Tc (a full house, Tens full of Sixes) and won $385.80 ($240.90 net)
CO mucked 5s 5h (a full house, Fives full of Sixes) and lost (-$144.90 net)
BTN mucked Jc Qs (a pair of Sixes) and lost (-$97.50 net)



Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players

MP3: $41 (41 bb)
Hero (CO): $100 (100 bb)
BTN: $59.80 (59.8 bb)
SB: $100 (100 bb)
BB: $60.80 (60.8 bb)
UTG: $100 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $13 (13 bb)
MP1: $82.55 (82.6 bb)
MP2: $28.75 (28.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with Kh Ks
3 folds, MP2 calls $1, MP3 calls $1, Hero raises to $6, BTN calls $6, 2 folds, MP2 calls $5, MP3 calls $5

Flop: ($25.50) 3s Kc 4s (4 players)
MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets $17, BTN calls $17, MP2 raises to $22.75 and is all-in, MP3 calls $22.75, Hero calls $5.75, BTN calls $5.75

Turn: ($116.50) Qc (4 players, 1 is all-in)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $71.25 and is all-in, BTN calls $31.05 and is all-in, MP3 calls $12.25 and is all-in

River: ($190.85) 6d (4 players, 4 are all-in)

Results: $190.85 pot ($3.00 rake)
Hero showed Kh Ks (three of a kind, Kings) and won $187.85 ($128.05 net)
BTN mucked 3c 3d (three of a kind, Threes) and lost (-$59.80 net)
MP3 mucked As 8s (high card Ace) and lost (-$41 net)
MP2 mucked Qs Ts (a pair of Queens) and lost (-$28.75 net)