On February 4th I started this blog, shortly after I deposited $500 on PokerStars to try to learn to grind online poker. I was playing live somewhat frequently back then, and was likely a winning player at the donkfest that is the casino, despite my game being poor and lacking a true understanding of fundamental poker theory.
By the end of February I had played around 20k hands, and increased my roll a little over 50%. In March I posted more than any other month, ran good, made Gold Star and had my first month earning over $1k (barely). My game was improving, though it was more through inductive thinking rather than understanding important concepts and applying them deductively.
I played 52.9k hands in April, thanks to adding more tables once I picked up a 22" widescreen monitor. Said monitor is currently being used by my girlfriend. I also moved up to 50nl, which was my first increase in stakes. I earned right around $1.7k, despite running a little cool. I didn't really find the move from 25nl to 50nl terribly significant, but I guess it was reflected in my winrate. Many micro grinders apparently find the jump very difficult, and often end up being unprofitable at 50nl. Luckily, this was not the case for me. Near the end of the month I had a bit of a "Eureka" moment when thinking about poker theory while taking an online "test". I didn't really fully understand the concept I had discovered at the time, but this was the start of me realizing how you determine whether you can profitably bet or raise (hint: for value, or as a bluff).
In May I started to run a little better at 50nl, and began working towards actually understanding some of the fundamental conceptual groundwork I had discovered. I purchased a second 22" monitor (this one also went to my girlfriend eventually). I ran marginally hot, crushed the games over 60k hands, and was able to start twelve tabling comfortably. It was a good month, and I felt really positive about shipping $3.25k profit, nearly double my previous best. It was time to move up to 100nl!
In June I played 68k hands of exclusively 100nl. It was a swingy month, and I believe the 12 BI downswing I experienced early on was my largest at that point in my career. Since then, I've had probably 6-8 between 10 and 20 BIs. The rest of the month went quite smoothly, and I found that 100nl wasn't much more difficult than 50nl. Perhaps this was a bit of an underestimation, but despite that I ended up making $5k, and started to reach a point where my rakeback was contributing nicely. I was on the road to Supernova, which I expected to hit in August. My hourly rate playing poker was now most definitely exceeding that of my day job.
Perhaps the most significant aspect of July was my purchase of a new (badly needed) office chair which I am very happy with, my Logitech G9 gaming mouse, and my first 28" monitor. With the 28" paired with the 22", I was able to play up to 18 tables at a time, and saw a huge increase in efficiency thanks to AutoHotkey software coupled with my new mouse. If I recall correctly, I was ~15 tabling comfortably by the end of the month. PokerStars also had a double VPP week, which caused the game quality to decrease considerably as the regulars played long hours, but did yield a nice increase in rakeback. Unfortunately, my internet connection was down for much of this time, which annoyed me greatly. To further my dissapointment, I also ran terribly during the latter half of the month, and ended up posting a very lackluster 1.14ptBB/100 winrate. However, since I played a large amount of hands (135k), this still managed to yield $6.25k profit.
August was the toughest month of my year, primarily because my awful luck from late July continued. My hands never held up. 1 out, 2 outs, 5 outs, it didn't matter - they'd catch what they needed. I inevitably play more hands when I run badly, and thus I ended up playing more hands in August than I have in any month to date: 194k. My winrate was an awful 0.94ptBB/100, and I'm sure my game suffered due to my mindset. Luckily, I turned things around a bit during the last weekend of the month, and thanks mostly to the rakeback from my monster volume, managed $7.5k total profit. It also must be mentioned that in early August my second 28" monitor arrived, and by the end of the month I had trained myself to 24 table. Perhaps the learning curve adding those last ~6 tables had something to do with the poor results.
In September I learned how to run average again. After the latter half of July and almost all of August, this was a breath of fresh air. I was 24-tabling comfortably, and the money rolled in. I reached the 200k VPP milestone bonus for an additional $1200 bonus. By the end of the month, I posted a very respectable 2.7ptBB/100 winrate over 145k hands, and made $12.1k profit - my second best month ever. It was during this month I think I really cemented my understanding of fundamental poker theory. Unfortunately, my game probably hasn't advanced much since then - but maybe this isn't as bad as it seems. Fundamentals, self control, and game selection are all you need to make good money.
October was basically more of the same, except I ran a little better than in September, and hit my second (and what would be my second last) milestone of the year, at 300k VPPs. This granted me a $2200 boost to the month, which helped me to my best month to date: $15k profit. I also started staking and coaching a friend during this month, and though he quickly won enough to play off his own coin, the coaching continues indefinitely. Hopefully he is crushing 50-100nl in 2009. For the second month in a row I did not reach my targetted number of hands. When I run good, I don't play enough - or perhaps the game was getting a little less fun, as there was less to learn?
November was kind of dissapointing. My mediocre 2.35ptBB/100 winrate coupled with only playing 127k hands resulted in a $9k profit number. I also wasn't terribly motivated to put in long sessions.
Finally, there's not much to say about December. I ran pretty bad, and the games were as poor as they've been since I've played 100nl, due to people chasing milestones. Thanks to my final milestone of the year (400k VPP -> $3200 free money!), I ended up making $10.4k, over half of this figure was rakeback + bonus money. Meh.
Yearly total:
$250
+$1150
+$1700
+$3225
+$5000
+$6250
+$7500
+$12100
+$15000
+$9200
+$10400
--------
$78025 profit
Not too shabby, especially for a guy who started playing online at 25nl in February. How about some 2009 goals?
2009 Goals
(1) Supernova Elite
This is the big one. The end all, be all, and why I am pursuing poker as a job for at least a year. This goal will require ~250k hands/month in volume, which is not an easy task by any stretch of the imagination. I am a grinder at heart however... so lets get it done! Looking forward to the PCA (in the Bahamas) and EPT final (in Monte Carlo) come 2010 when I am SNE!
(2) $250k profit
Including the SNE tourney packages, I think this is a reasonable number. I'm not going to be trying to move up stakes aggressively, which is both a blessing and a curse, it should make my results more predictable, but also limit my ceiling significantly. With a 2.5ptBB/100 winrate at 100NL playing SNE volume, I'd exceed this number.
(3) Get into a healthy routine, despite all the freedom
One of the big upsides to playing poker as a job is the freedom of schedule. I need to exert self control and get into a good routine of not sleeping too much (this is a big challenge, if you know me you understand) eating regular healthy meals and getting enough exercise. Honestly, it would probably be better for me to fail (1) and (2) but meet this goal, provided of course I don't fail (2) too epically.
Happy new year!
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Monday, December 29, 2008
December Review
I played my last hand of the month and thus 2008 yesterday. After picking up my 400k VPP milestone bonus I knew it was time for a break, especially given I want to get off to a really fast start in the SNE chase come January 1st.
The month of December was perhaps a minor dissapointment, as I ran a little bad (reflected in a 2.17ptBB/100 winrate) and the tables in general saw a decrease in quality as regulars frantically put in the hands they needed for their last milestones.
Here is my graph for the month:
The bottom line:
$4583.90 winnings
+$2513.67 rakeback (44,887 VPPs x 3.5 FPPs/VPP x 1.6c/FPP)
+$3200 milestone bonus ($4000 - $800 FPP value to purchase)
+$150 "world record" promotion deposit bonus (thanks for more free money Stars!)
=$10447.57 profit
Sorry for phoning in this month's review a little bit, the blog should become a lot more interesting to kick off 2009. Also look for a yearly review post a little later on where I'll reflect on what I've accomplished in poker over the last year.
The month of December was perhaps a minor dissapointment, as I ran a little bad (reflected in a 2.17ptBB/100 winrate) and the tables in general saw a decrease in quality as regulars frantically put in the hands they needed for their last milestones.
Here is my graph for the month:
The bottom line:
$4583.90 winnings
+$2513.67 rakeback (44,887 VPPs x 3.5 FPPs/VPP x 1.6c/FPP)
+$3200 milestone bonus ($4000 - $800 FPP value to purchase)
+$150 "world record" promotion deposit bonus (thanks for more free money Stars!)
=$10447.57 profit
Sorry for phoning in this month's review a little bit, the blog should become a lot more interesting to kick off 2009. Also look for a yearly review post a little later on where I'll reflect on what I've accomplished in poker over the last year.
Monday, December 22, 2008
Too Much Going On
Between the holidays, house hunting (it looks like I'll be buying a very sexy townhouse in Christie Park, knock on wood), grinding out the last milestone bonus of the year and my other hobbies, there hasn't been much time to update this blog. On the positive side, I finally ran decently last weekend, and shipped a little over 2.5k in winnings + rakeback.
Graph:
I'll find more time to update the blog when I start my SNE chase on Jan 1, I promise!
Graph:
I'll find more time to update the blog when I start my SNE chase on Jan 1, I promise!
Monday, December 8, 2008
Tableratings
I ran pretty poorly this weekend, but still shipped some winnings + rakeback. Managed to play the volume I was shooting for to maintain pace for my last milestone bonus of the year. Hopefully I'll remember to post a few HHs from the weekend tomorrow.
On a more interesting note, Tableratings.com has recently added Pokerstars support, with an initial database containing hands over the last ~2.5 months, for hands at 100NL and above. The stats they have for me seem eerily accurate, though I've heard some reports from others that their's are off, though they could just be FPP pros trying to save face on 2+2.
You can check out their list of the winningest 100NL regs here:
http://www.tableratings.com/topwinners.php?site=6&structure=1&stakes=1&timeframe=year
Yup, that's me at #4! Here is my player specific breakdown:
http://www.tableratings.com/overview/Ronfar3?site=stars
Once again it surprises me how many regulars are rakeback pros or worse, along with how many are satisfied grinding out their <1ptBB/100 winrate. Often when I'm playing, I start thinking in my head that players who would typically be regarded as "decent" regs are pretty bad, then usually catch myself and note that I'm probably just being a jackass because I don't like them. Perhaps most of those folks are pretty bad...
On a more interesting note, Tableratings.com has recently added Pokerstars support, with an initial database containing hands over the last ~2.5 months, for hands at 100NL and above. The stats they have for me seem eerily accurate, though I've heard some reports from others that their's are off, though they could just be FPP pros trying to save face on 2+2.
You can check out their list of the winningest 100NL regs here:
http://www.tableratings.com/topwinners.php?site=6&structure=1&stakes=1&timeframe=year
Yup, that's me at #4! Here is my player specific breakdown:
http://www.tableratings.com/overview/Ronfar3?site=stars
Once again it surprises me how many regulars are rakeback pros or worse, along with how many are satisfied grinding out their <1ptBB/100 winrate. Often when I'm playing, I start thinking in my head that players who would typically be regarded as "decent" regs are pretty bad, then usually catch myself and note that I'm probably just being a jackass because I don't like them. Perhaps most of those folks are pretty bad...
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
November Review
I'm not sure what I really think about the month of November. I had a lot going on, so I didn't play as many hands as I wanted, especially during the latter couple weeks of the month. It feels like this was because I was really lazy, but in some ways I don't feel bad about how I prioritized my time.
Lets start this month's review by looking at my goals from last month:
1) Play 135,000 hands
Fail. Talked about this at the start of the post. Actually got pretty close though, I think I set this goal to keep it very realistic given what I had planned for the month. Too bad I didn't make it.
2) 2,000 hands at 400NL, 18,000 hands at 200NL
Fail. Game selection at these stakes is really weak compared to 100NL. I also didn't make a conscious enough effort to find games at these levels to replace tables during the middle parts of a session. It would be nice to move more of my play higher, but I'm not in a rush either - maybe I should be to help try to push my game forward... who knows.
3) Run one three barrel bluff per session against a regular (when they likely don't have a set or better).
Pass. I've been running multistreet bluffs more often lately. Given my image they work like 90%+ of the time. In one of my spewier moments I turned KK into a bluff hoping to fold out villain's AA (he's a nit and is going to fold it a lot), and he ended up hero folding 88 on a 9822 board. Then he posted it on 2+2 and got grilled to death. Hilarious.
Here are my winnings for the month:
I ran pretty mediocre, played pretty average I'd say. Not thrilled about the winrate, but it's certainly not awful either. Lots of people would kill for a 2.35ptBB/100 winrate.
Total profit
$6223.85 winnings + (51723 VPPs x 3.5 FPPs/VPP x 1.6c/FPP = $2896.49 rakeback) = $9120.34 profit
Not terrible given my volume and lack of any milestone bonuses.
I'm going to include my December goals in this post, since they are very simple:
(1) Don't burn out, and hit the 400k VPP milestone
I've set myself up to need 43275 VPPs to hit the milestone, which is very much attainable. I've got a ton going on in December, so I may play around the same (or perhaps a little less) volume than I played this month. This doesn't worry me, as it will be nice to slow down a bit before going pro and pumping out massive volume in January.
Lets start this month's review by looking at my goals from last month:
1) Play 135,000 hands
Fail. Talked about this at the start of the post. Actually got pretty close though, I think I set this goal to keep it very realistic given what I had planned for the month. Too bad I didn't make it.
2) 2,000 hands at 400NL, 18,000 hands at 200NL
Fail. Game selection at these stakes is really weak compared to 100NL. I also didn't make a conscious enough effort to find games at these levels to replace tables during the middle parts of a session. It would be nice to move more of my play higher, but I'm not in a rush either - maybe I should be to help try to push my game forward... who knows.
3) Run one three barrel bluff per session against a regular (when they likely don't have a set or better).
Pass. I've been running multistreet bluffs more often lately. Given my image they work like 90%+ of the time. In one of my spewier moments I turned KK into a bluff hoping to fold out villain's AA (he's a nit and is going to fold it a lot), and he ended up hero folding 88 on a 9822 board. Then he posted it on 2+2 and got grilled to death. Hilarious.
Here are my winnings for the month:
I ran pretty mediocre, played pretty average I'd say. Not thrilled about the winrate, but it's certainly not awful either. Lots of people would kill for a 2.35ptBB/100 winrate.
Total profit
$6223.85 winnings + (51723 VPPs x 3.5 FPPs/VPP x 1.6c/FPP = $2896.49 rakeback) = $9120.34 profit
Not terrible given my volume and lack of any milestone bonuses.
I'm going to include my December goals in this post, since they are very simple:
(1) Don't burn out, and hit the 400k VPP milestone
I've set myself up to need 43275 VPPs to hit the milestone, which is very much attainable. I've got a ton going on in December, so I may play around the same (or perhaps a little less) volume than I played this month. This doesn't worry me, as it will be nice to slow down a bit before going pro and pumping out massive volume in January.
Monday, November 17, 2008
A Little Poker, Lots Of WoW, and One Really Interesting Hand
Most of my time this weekend has been spent (expectantly) playing World of Warcraft which recently launched its second expansion, Wrath of the Lich King. It's been good times so far, and I'll leave it at that for now.
I still managed to squeeze in 21k hands this weekend. I'm not sure whether to be disappointed in that total or not. It certainly won't cut it in the future, though.
Here's my winnings graph for the weekend. Very swingy, but they don't affect me too much anymore. Note that this is the first Hold'em Manager graph I've posted on this blog! Get used to them, the tool kicks ass and is clearly the market leader.
Moving on, I played one hand on Saturday which I found to be very interesting from a hand reading perspective. I'll take you through the hand and why it is so intriguing.
Villain is a reg nit, and runs around 10/7. I've played a lot of hands with him and I do not remember him ever spewing bigtime post flop.
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hero (MP1): $201.20 (201.2 bb)
MP2: $111.95 (112 bb)
MP3: $88.50 (88.5 bb)
CO: $38.35 (38.4 bb)
BTN: $101 (101 bb)
SB: $101.85 (101.9 bb)
BB: $101.35 (101.4 bb)
UTG: $15.50 (15.5 bb)
UTG+1: $19.50 (19.5 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is MP1 with Qd Kd
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, 4 folds, SB calls $3.50, BB calls $3
Standard raise for me. I actually raise KQs in EP some of the time as well.
Flop: ($12) Ac 9d Jh (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks
This is actually a pretty decent spot to c-bet, even three ways. Plus we have a gutshot for backup. Checking is likely a small mistake relative to betting.
Turn: ($12) Td (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $8, Hero raises to $26, SB folds, BB calls $18
We turn the nuts, and get bet at by our nit reg. His range at this point is AK/AQ and sets. Very well defined. We raise, SB folds, and reg calls. His range now is polarized to exactly sets. His call here is interesting though, as you may be thinking that he should be shoving all day. He elects not to shove because he (probably) knows that my raising range is going to be straights and AQdd which chose not to bet the flop (checking AQdd on the flop would have been ok, very little that we beat calls). He probably would also put AA in my range, though I don't think I ever slowplay AA on that flop 3 ways.
Thus, he decides to call and see if he can improve to a boat via the board pairing, or failing that if he will take down the pot when my AQdd bricks its flush and checks behind the river. This isn't a bad call, I think it is probably the right play.
River: ($64) Jd (2 players)
BB bets $36, Hero raises to $169, BB calls $35.35 and is all-in
The board pairs, also completing the flush. Villain bets a little over half pot, almost exactly half his remaining stack. This is a very good bet on this part - it allows for my flushes to make a crying a call, when they might fold to a ~pot size shove.
What he doesn't expect (and hates to see) is my shove. He knows my made flushes probably aren't shoving here (it's definitely a mistake to shove a flush against villain's range, which is a boat here). Thus, he really doesn't beat anything. But he has a full house, and what could I possibly have? It's very doubtful I have AA (and he's right, I almost never do). That only leaves a straight flush that could be shoving. It's tough to give anyone credit for a straight flush, so he can't find the fold button, especially getting great 5:1 odds.
It's interesting to note that villain timed all the way down before calling the river shove. I'm quite certain he highly suspected that I had the straight flush, and almost hero folded. It would have been quite a fold.
Results: $206.70 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Qd Kd (a straight flush, Nine to King) and won $203.70 ($102.35 net)
BB mucked Th Tc (a full house, Tens full of Jacks) and lost (-$101.35 net)
I still managed to squeeze in 21k hands this weekend. I'm not sure whether to be disappointed in that total or not. It certainly won't cut it in the future, though.
Here's my winnings graph for the weekend. Very swingy, but they don't affect me too much anymore. Note that this is the first Hold'em Manager graph I've posted on this blog! Get used to them, the tool kicks ass and is clearly the market leader.
Moving on, I played one hand on Saturday which I found to be very interesting from a hand reading perspective. I'll take you through the hand and why it is so intriguing.
Villain is a reg nit, and runs around 10/7. I've played a lot of hands with him and I do not remember him ever spewing bigtime post flop.
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hero (MP1): $201.20 (201.2 bb)
MP2: $111.95 (112 bb)
MP3: $88.50 (88.5 bb)
CO: $38.35 (38.4 bb)
BTN: $101 (101 bb)
SB: $101.85 (101.9 bb)
BB: $101.35 (101.4 bb)
UTG: $15.50 (15.5 bb)
UTG+1: $19.50 (19.5 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is MP1 with Qd Kd
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, 4 folds, SB calls $3.50, BB calls $3
Standard raise for me. I actually raise KQs in EP some of the time as well.
Flop: ($12) Ac 9d Jh (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks
This is actually a pretty decent spot to c-bet, even three ways. Plus we have a gutshot for backup. Checking is likely a small mistake relative to betting.
Turn: ($12) Td (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $8, Hero raises to $26, SB folds, BB calls $18
We turn the nuts, and get bet at by our nit reg. His range at this point is AK/AQ and sets. Very well defined. We raise, SB folds, and reg calls. His range now is polarized to exactly sets. His call here is interesting though, as you may be thinking that he should be shoving all day. He elects not to shove because he (probably) knows that my raising range is going to be straights and AQdd which chose not to bet the flop (checking AQdd on the flop would have been ok, very little that we beat calls). He probably would also put AA in my range, though I don't think I ever slowplay AA on that flop 3 ways.
Thus, he decides to call and see if he can improve to a boat via the board pairing, or failing that if he will take down the pot when my AQdd bricks its flush and checks behind the river. This isn't a bad call, I think it is probably the right play.
River: ($64) Jd (2 players)
BB bets $36, Hero raises to $169, BB calls $35.35 and is all-in
The board pairs, also completing the flush. Villain bets a little over half pot, almost exactly half his remaining stack. This is a very good bet on this part - it allows for my flushes to make a crying a call, when they might fold to a ~pot size shove.
What he doesn't expect (and hates to see) is my shove. He knows my made flushes probably aren't shoving here (it's definitely a mistake to shove a flush against villain's range, which is a boat here). Thus, he really doesn't beat anything. But he has a full house, and what could I possibly have? It's very doubtful I have AA (and he's right, I almost never do). That only leaves a straight flush that could be shoving. It's tough to give anyone credit for a straight flush, so he can't find the fold button, especially getting great 5:1 odds.
It's interesting to note that villain timed all the way down before calling the river shove. I'm quite certain he highly suspected that I had the straight flush, and almost hero folded. It would have been quite a fold.
Results: $206.70 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Qd Kd (a straight flush, Nine to King) and won $203.70 ($102.35 net)
BB mucked Th Tc (a full house, Tens full of Jacks) and lost (-$101.35 net)
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Sometimes You Just Have To (Spontaneously) Move On
In the middle of a strategy session with my buddy Will yesterday, we decided to check out HEM (Hold'em Manager), a competitor to Pokertracker which many folks have begun using. After one day of using the trial, I think its safe to say that I will be using HEM going forward. There is just so much great functionality, and I'm already reaping the benefits of having 3-bet/fold to 3-bet stats available in my HUD, which is now configured as follows:
VPIP/PFR/AF/Hands
-----------------
3-bet/Fold to 3-bet/Steal
-----------------
Fold to Flop C-bet/Fold to turn 2nd barrel/Cbet %
This already includes 4 more stats (3-bet, Fold to 3-bet, Steal, Fold to 2nd barrel) than were on the main display of my old HUD.
Unfortunately, what this also means is that I will no longer have pretty PokerEV graphs to post. However, HEM does have built in all-in EV calculations, so my graphs can still include that. Set-o-meter results will also no longer be obtainable. I guess I'll have to do without those tools, which didn't add a whole lot of real value anyway. They were reassuring at times I felt I was running bad though. Time to focus less on running good/bad and more about making the right decisions and maximizing winrate.
VPIP/PFR/AF/Hands
-----------------
3-bet/Fold to 3-bet/Steal
-----------------
Fold to Flop C-bet/Fold to turn 2nd barrel/Cbet %
This already includes 4 more stats (3-bet, Fold to 3-bet, Steal, Fold to 2nd barrel) than were on the main display of my old HUD.
Unfortunately, what this also means is that I will no longer have pretty PokerEV graphs to post. However, HEM does have built in all-in EV calculations, so my graphs can still include that. Set-o-meter results will also no longer be obtainable. I guess I'll have to do without those tools, which didn't add a whole lot of real value anyway. They were reassuring at times I felt I was running bad though. Time to focus less on running good/bad and more about making the right decisions and maximizing winrate.
Monday, November 10, 2008
I'm Just A Play Machine
It felt like I was making more moves than normal this weekend, which is probably a good thing. Due to my image, most of my moves tend to work. I think a few nit regs have started calling my 3-bets light because they know I 3-bet a lot of small pairs and SCs in position, but this is actually +EV for me because they're normally OOP and have to fold to a flop half pot c-bet anyway.
I also ran a nice 3-barrel bluff which worked, and played a very interesting hand against a good 200/400 NL reg that was slumming at 100NL for whatever reason. We have almost no history, but he should know I am 2+2er and a winning player. Here is the hand in question, with commentary:
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
UTG+1: $128.05 (128.1 bb)
MP1: $145.35 (145.4 bb)
MP2: $18 (18 bb)
MP3: $44.50 (44.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $105.20 (105.2 bb)
BTN: $28.40 (28.4 bb)
SB: $159.10 (159.1 bb)
BB: $213.70 (213.7 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with Kc Ah
UTG+1 folds, MP1 raises to $2, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $8, BTN folds, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 raises to $14, Hero calls $6
Villain is a LAG, and minraises as many 400NL regs like to do. I think minraising is probably spew at 100NL on weekends especially, but that's a discussion for another time. I 3-bet, and villain minraises me back. It occurred to me at the time that villain is likely doing this with more than half of his opening range, and that the main purpose of it is to grab a hold of the postflop "initiative" in the hand, expecting me to fold to a half pot c-bet on a lot of flops.
I'm obviously never folding here, and 5-betting is actually a good option. With position however I elect to call and play poker. Note that if I'm not going to make a move on some dry flops that I miss (that misses most of his range as well), it is most definitely better to 5-bet.
Flop: ($29.50) 6h Jd Jc (2 players)
MP1 bets $15, Hero raises to $30, MP1 folds
Here comes the expected half pot c-bet on an extremely dry board. I think this is a perfect spot to mainraise bluff, because villain is going to have to fold much of his range. AK/AQ probably fold, as do pairs smaller than Jacks and possibly even QQ (ok, this particular reg probably doesn't actually fold QQ here, but some would). I end up risking $30 to win $45, so villain only has to fold 40% of the time for it to be EV neutral. In practice, I'm fairly certain villain folds >50% of the time, making is significantly +EV.
This hand functioned as a bit of a eureka moment for me. In 3-bet pots, mainraise bluffing can be a deadly tool that very few players use. It is especially effective because you are effectively risking the minimum possible on a bluff that will get very close to the same amount of credit as a shove. The key is to balance it with your nut hands in a similar fashion on dry boards. Thus, if a villain decides to shove over your mainraise with their missed AK, they'll be running into your AA/KK a decent amount of the time. I will be making much more use of this move in the future.
Results: $59.50 pot ($2.90 rake)
Hero mucked Kc Ah (a pair of Jacks) and won $56.60 ($27.60 net)
Finally, here are my EV and luck graphs for the weekend. I ran a little good in Sklansky EV, and a little bad in all-in EV, for a total of $2.7k profit ($2.2k winnings, $500 rakeback). I really need to play more hands on the weekends, 22.5k isn't going to cut it going forward.
I also ran a nice 3-barrel bluff which worked, and played a very interesting hand against a good 200/400 NL reg that was slumming at 100NL for whatever reason. We have almost no history, but he should know I am 2+2er and a winning player. Here is the hand in question, with commentary:
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
UTG+1: $128.05 (128.1 bb)
MP1: $145.35 (145.4 bb)
MP2: $18 (18 bb)
MP3: $44.50 (44.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $105.20 (105.2 bb)
BTN: $28.40 (28.4 bb)
SB: $159.10 (159.1 bb)
BB: $213.70 (213.7 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with Kc Ah
UTG+1 folds, MP1 raises to $2, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $8, BTN folds, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 raises to $14, Hero calls $6
Villain is a LAG, and minraises as many 400NL regs like to do. I think minraising is probably spew at 100NL on weekends especially, but that's a discussion for another time. I 3-bet, and villain minraises me back. It occurred to me at the time that villain is likely doing this with more than half of his opening range, and that the main purpose of it is to grab a hold of the postflop "initiative" in the hand, expecting me to fold to a half pot c-bet on a lot of flops.
I'm obviously never folding here, and 5-betting is actually a good option. With position however I elect to call and play poker. Note that if I'm not going to make a move on some dry flops that I miss (that misses most of his range as well), it is most definitely better to 5-bet.
Flop: ($29.50) 6h Jd Jc (2 players)
MP1 bets $15, Hero raises to $30, MP1 folds
Here comes the expected half pot c-bet on an extremely dry board. I think this is a perfect spot to mainraise bluff, because villain is going to have to fold much of his range. AK/AQ probably fold, as do pairs smaller than Jacks and possibly even QQ (ok, this particular reg probably doesn't actually fold QQ here, but some would). I end up risking $30 to win $45, so villain only has to fold 40% of the time for it to be EV neutral. In practice, I'm fairly certain villain folds >50% of the time, making is significantly +EV.
This hand functioned as a bit of a eureka moment for me. In 3-bet pots, mainraise bluffing can be a deadly tool that very few players use. It is especially effective because you are effectively risking the minimum possible on a bluff that will get very close to the same amount of credit as a shove. The key is to balance it with your nut hands in a similar fashion on dry boards. Thus, if a villain decides to shove over your mainraise with their missed AK, they'll be running into your AA/KK a decent amount of the time. I will be making much more use of this move in the future.
Results: $59.50 pot ($2.90 rake)
Hero mucked Kc Ah (a pair of Jacks) and won $56.60 ($27.60 net)
Finally, here are my EV and luck graphs for the weekend. I ran a little good in Sklansky EV, and a little bad in all-in EV, for a total of $2.7k profit ($2.2k winnings, $500 rakeback). I really need to play more hands on the weekends, 22.5k isn't going to cut it going forward.
Monday, November 3, 2008
November Goals
Setting goals is one way to stay motivated, and I'm a goal oriented person in general. Thus, I figure I'd better get off my ass and set some goals for this month:
1) Play 135,000 hands
On the one hand, I have a week+ booked off from work in the middle of the month. On the other hand, Wrath of the Lich King is released to start that time and I have a gaming backlog as it is. 135k hands should be an aggressive goal, but I will be dissapointed if I fall short of my volume goals three months in a row (though I did come very, very close the previous two months).
2) 2,000 hands at 400NL, 18,000 hands at 200NL
Given the typical game conditions this should hopefully be realistic. It is actually quite feasible I end up playing more hands than this at 400NL and less at 200NL, depending on weekend game conditions. I guess we'll see.
3) Run one three barrel bluff per session against a regular (when they likely don't have a set or better).
I think it is definitely EV for me to bluff more post flop, and an occasional three barrel is something that has been lacking from my game lately.
1) Play 135,000 hands
On the one hand, I have a week+ booked off from work in the middle of the month. On the other hand, Wrath of the Lich King is released to start that time and I have a gaming backlog as it is. 135k hands should be an aggressive goal, but I will be dissapointed if I fall short of my volume goals three months in a row (though I did come very, very close the previous two months).
2) 2,000 hands at 400NL, 18,000 hands at 200NL
Given the typical game conditions this should hopefully be realistic. It is actually quite feasible I end up playing more hands than this at 400NL and less at 200NL, depending on weekend game conditions. I guess we'll see.
3) Run one three barrel bluff per session against a regular (when they likely don't have a set or better).
I think it is definitely EV for me to bluff more post flop, and an occasional three barrel is something that has been lacking from my game lately.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Multiway Pots Gone Wild
My first 14k hands of November have been interesting to say the least. I started to mix in a tiny bit of 400NL (at a table with 3 donkeys - if I can find more of these tables it'll be awesome) which unfortunately didn't go terribly well.
It felt like I've run really really bad, but the results have been solid winrate wise. This is solely because I won three really big pots, two of which had four(!) players all-in by the end of the hand (in both of these I had top set). In one of these hands, all four players had ~100BB behind, and it was the largest amount I've won in a single hand of 100NL. In the third hand, three players with close to full stacks were all in.
Here are the HHs, with the most impressive first:
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
SB: $59.40 (59.4 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): $100 (100 bb)
MP1: $100 (100 bb)
MP2: $100 (100 bb)
MP3: $126.80 (126.8 bb)
CO: $100 (100 bb)
BTN: $98.50 (98.5 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG+1 with Kh Kd
Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, MP3 calls $4, CO calls $4, BTN calls $4, SB calls $3.50, BB folds
Flop: ($21) Jd 9d Kc (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $16.50, MP3 calls $16.50, CO raises to $47, BTN calls $47, SB folds, Hero raises to $96 and is all-in, MP3 raises to $122.80 and is all-in, CO calls $49 and is all-in, BTN calls $47.50 and is all-in
Turn: ($403.50) 4s (4 players, 4 are all-in)
River: ($403.50) 9s (4 players, 4 are all-in)
Results: $403.50 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Kh Kd (a full house, Kings full of Nines) and won $400.50 ($300.50 net)
MP3 mucked Ad 5d (a pair of Nines) and lost (-$100 net)
CO mucked Td 8d (a pair of Nines) and lost (-$100 net)
BTN mucked Ks As (two pairs, Kings and Nines) and lost (-$98.50 net)
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
UTG+1: $223.20 (223.2 bb)
MP1: $117.90 (117.9 bb)
MP2: $84.35 (84.4 bb)
Hero (MP3): $165.20 (165.2 bb)
CO: $144.90 (144.9 bb)
BTN: $97.50 (97.5 bb)
SB: $171.05 (171.1 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with Td Tc
3 folds, Hero raises to $4, CO calls $4, BTN calls $4, 2 folds
Flop: ($13.50) 5d Ts Kc (3 players)
Hero bets $9.50, CO calls $9.50, BTN calls $9.50
Turn: ($42) 6c (3 players)
Hero bets $26, CO raises to $52, BTN raises to $84 and is all-in, Hero raises to $151.70 and is all-in, CO calls $79.40 and is all-in
River: ($388.80) 6d (3 players, 3 are all-in)
Results: $388.80 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Td Tc (a full house, Tens full of Sixes) and won $385.80 ($240.90 net)
CO mucked 5s 5h (a full house, Fives full of Sixes) and lost (-$144.90 net)
BTN mucked Jc Qs (a pair of Sixes) and lost (-$97.50 net)
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
MP3: $41 (41 bb)
Hero (CO): $100 (100 bb)
BTN: $59.80 (59.8 bb)
SB: $100 (100 bb)
BB: $60.80 (60.8 bb)
UTG: $100 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $13 (13 bb)
MP1: $82.55 (82.6 bb)
MP2: $28.75 (28.8 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with Kh Ks
3 folds, MP2 calls $1, MP3 calls $1, Hero raises to $6, BTN calls $6, 2 folds, MP2 calls $5, MP3 calls $5
Flop: ($25.50) 3s Kc 4s (4 players)
MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets $17, BTN calls $17, MP2 raises to $22.75 and is all-in, MP3 calls $22.75, Hero calls $5.75, BTN calls $5.75
Turn: ($116.50) Qc (4 players, 1 is all-in)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $71.25 and is all-in, BTN calls $31.05 and is all-in, MP3 calls $12.25 and is all-in
River: ($190.85) 6d (4 players, 4 are all-in)
Results: $190.85 pot ($3.00 rake)
Hero showed Kh Ks (three of a kind, Kings) and won $187.85 ($128.05 net)
BTN mucked 3c 3d (three of a kind, Threes) and lost (-$59.80 net)
MP3 mucked As 8s (high card Ace) and lost (-$41 net)
MP2 mucked Qs Ts (a pair of Queens) and lost (-$28.75 net)
It felt like I've run really really bad, but the results have been solid winrate wise. This is solely because I won three really big pots, two of which had four(!) players all-in by the end of the hand (in both of these I had top set). In one of these hands, all four players had ~100BB behind, and it was the largest amount I've won in a single hand of 100NL. In the third hand, three players with close to full stacks were all in.
Here are the HHs, with the most impressive first:
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
SB: $59.40 (59.4 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): $100 (100 bb)
MP1: $100 (100 bb)
MP2: $100 (100 bb)
MP3: $126.80 (126.8 bb)
CO: $100 (100 bb)
BTN: $98.50 (98.5 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG+1 with Kh Kd
Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, MP3 calls $4, CO calls $4, BTN calls $4, SB calls $3.50, BB folds
Flop: ($21) Jd 9d Kc (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $16.50, MP3 calls $16.50, CO raises to $47, BTN calls $47, SB folds, Hero raises to $96 and is all-in, MP3 raises to $122.80 and is all-in, CO calls $49 and is all-in, BTN calls $47.50 and is all-in
Turn: ($403.50) 4s (4 players, 4 are all-in)
River: ($403.50) 9s (4 players, 4 are all-in)
Results: $403.50 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Kh Kd (a full house, Kings full of Nines) and won $400.50 ($300.50 net)
MP3 mucked Ad 5d (a pair of Nines) and lost (-$100 net)
CO mucked Td 8d (a pair of Nines) and lost (-$100 net)
BTN mucked Ks As (two pairs, Kings and Nines) and lost (-$98.50 net)
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
UTG+1: $223.20 (223.2 bb)
MP1: $117.90 (117.9 bb)
MP2: $84.35 (84.4 bb)
Hero (MP3): $165.20 (165.2 bb)
CO: $144.90 (144.9 bb)
BTN: $97.50 (97.5 bb)
SB: $171.05 (171.1 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with Td Tc
3 folds, Hero raises to $4, CO calls $4, BTN calls $4, 2 folds
Flop: ($13.50) 5d Ts Kc (3 players)
Hero bets $9.50, CO calls $9.50, BTN calls $9.50
Turn: ($42) 6c (3 players)
Hero bets $26, CO raises to $52, BTN raises to $84 and is all-in, Hero raises to $151.70 and is all-in, CO calls $79.40 and is all-in
River: ($388.80) 6d (3 players, 3 are all-in)
Results: $388.80 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Td Tc (a full house, Tens full of Sixes) and won $385.80 ($240.90 net)
CO mucked 5s 5h (a full house, Fives full of Sixes) and lost (-$144.90 net)
BTN mucked Jc Qs (a pair of Sixes) and lost (-$97.50 net)
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
MP3: $41 (41 bb)
Hero (CO): $100 (100 bb)
BTN: $59.80 (59.8 bb)
SB: $100 (100 bb)
BB: $60.80 (60.8 bb)
UTG: $100 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $13 (13 bb)
MP1: $82.55 (82.6 bb)
MP2: $28.75 (28.8 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with Kh Ks
3 folds, MP2 calls $1, MP3 calls $1, Hero raises to $6, BTN calls $6, 2 folds, MP2 calls $5, MP3 calls $5
Flop: ($25.50) 3s Kc 4s (4 players)
MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets $17, BTN calls $17, MP2 raises to $22.75 and is all-in, MP3 calls $22.75, Hero calls $5.75, BTN calls $5.75
Turn: ($116.50) Qc (4 players, 1 is all-in)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $71.25 and is all-in, BTN calls $31.05 and is all-in, MP3 calls $12.25 and is all-in
River: ($190.85) 6d (4 players, 4 are all-in)
Results: $190.85 pot ($3.00 rake)
Hero showed Kh Ks (three of a kind, Kings) and won $187.85 ($128.05 net)
BTN mucked 3c 3d (three of a kind, Threes) and lost (-$59.80 net)
MP3 mucked As 8s (high card Ace) and lost (-$41 net)
MP2 mucked Qs Ts (a pair of Queens) and lost (-$28.75 net)
Friday, October 31, 2008
October Review - Ballin' on a Budget
October has been a good month for me in all. My game feels just as strong (perhaps even moreso) as it did in September, and I have the winrate to back it up. Unfortunately I didn't play quite as much as I would have liked, nobody to blame for that but myself.
Anyway, lets get started.
Aside from the one slightly nasty breakeven stretch of 40k hands, a pretty sexy graph. The winrate numbers are right where I would love them to always be. 3.15ptBB/100 is the nuts.
Here are my Sklansky EV graphs for the month. First half EV followed by second half EV:
As you can see above I ran good in terms of Sklansky EV this month (to the tune of ~$1.3k), especially during the second half.
Lets take a look at first and second half all-in luck:
I ran poorly in all-in luck during the first half, and good during the second half, both nearly by the exact same margin. Consider these a draw, giving me neutral all-in luck for the month.
Lets take a look at Set-o-meter stats for the month:
I flopped a reasonable amount of sets (running marginally bad in that regard) but what is really eye-catching are the heater vs cooler stats. I ran brutally bad in all 3-categories. I had folks two out me 10 times in 35 tries (they have a ~10% chance to do so each time, so this is ridiculous). I had the lower set in a set-over-set situation 9 more times than the opposite (there was a single one-outer going each direction). Finally, in AA vs KK I sucked out once in 17 tries with my KK vs AA, while they sucked out 4 times in 19 tries with KK vs my AA. Pretty ridiculous.
Combining the positive Sklansky EV with the hideous heater vs cooler hands, I think I ran pretty close to average on the month, though it's pretty hard to say exactly. I most definitely didn't run significantly hot or cold however.
The bottom line:
+$64.35 staking profit*
+$38.00 credit (collusion?)
+54,113 VPPs * 3.5 Supernova multiplier = 189395 FPPs = 1.6c/FPP = $3030.33
+$2200 milestone bonus ($3k - $800 worth of FPPs to purchase)
+$9679 winnings
---------------
$15011.73 total profit in October.
*Thanks to Will for this. He is now playing on his own roll and doing well.
A new personal best month continues the trend of a new record each month since I began in February. I imagine November will break this trend however, as I will not hit another milestone bonus until December, and I imagine I won't put in that many hands due to Wrath of the Litch King release.
One thing I've always found interesting is trying to determine a confidence interval for one's "true" winrate. Over the last 2 months, I believe I'm run pretty close to average during both, based on the metrics and measurement tools I have available to me (PokerEV, Setometer, etc). During that period, between $100NL and $200NL I have posted a 3.10ptBB/100 winrate over 271k hands. This is a significant sample size. My standard deviation (Pokertracker will calculate this for you) over this sample has been 30ptBB/100. Using uDevil's Poker Results Calculator with my data, we can form a 95% confidence interval around my winrate -+1.13ptBB/100. Thus, there is a 95% chance my true winrate during this period is between 1.97ptBB/100 and 4.23ptBB/100. Interesting.
A 99% confidence interval results in my winrate being +-1.68ptBB/100 (1.68ptBB/100 to 4.58ptBB/100). While these results are somewhat reassuring, it just goes to show what a giant factor variance is. If I had run in the bottom 5% in terms of luck over these two months, my 3.10ptBB/100 winrate could instead have been between 1.68ptBB/100 and 1.97ptBB/100. That is almost cut in half! Scary stuff.
Finally, lets address the goals I set:
(1) Start a new Pokertracker DB
Done, and it was a good idea to do this.
(2) Play 150k hands
Failure, no excuse.
(3) Play 12.5/10 ATS27 at the very nittiest
I ended up playing my stardard 12/9 ATS25. These goals are bullshit in the first place, I've got to stop setting them. Who cares if the 2+2 crowd loves the 17/15 ATS40 style.
(4) Play 20,000+ hands at 200NL
Failed, played 15.7k at 200NL. Still over 10% of my total hands, and game selection there is hard. I can definitely beat the limit handily though with good selection. More importantly perhaps I played 0 hands of 50NL this month. Yay.
Anyway, lets get started.
Aside from the one slightly nasty breakeven stretch of 40k hands, a pretty sexy graph. The winrate numbers are right where I would love them to always be. 3.15ptBB/100 is the nuts.
Here are my Sklansky EV graphs for the month. First half EV followed by second half EV:
As you can see above I ran good in terms of Sklansky EV this month (to the tune of ~$1.3k), especially during the second half.
Lets take a look at first and second half all-in luck:
I ran poorly in all-in luck during the first half, and good during the second half, both nearly by the exact same margin. Consider these a draw, giving me neutral all-in luck for the month.
Lets take a look at Set-o-meter stats for the month:
I flopped a reasonable amount of sets (running marginally bad in that regard) but what is really eye-catching are the heater vs cooler stats. I ran brutally bad in all 3-categories. I had folks two out me 10 times in 35 tries (they have a ~10% chance to do so each time, so this is ridiculous). I had the lower set in a set-over-set situation 9 more times than the opposite (there was a single one-outer going each direction). Finally, in AA vs KK I sucked out once in 17 tries with my KK vs AA, while they sucked out 4 times in 19 tries with KK vs my AA. Pretty ridiculous.
Combining the positive Sklansky EV with the hideous heater vs cooler hands, I think I ran pretty close to average on the month, though it's pretty hard to say exactly. I most definitely didn't run significantly hot or cold however.
The bottom line:
+$64.35 staking profit*
+$38.00 credit (collusion?)
+54,113 VPPs * 3.5 Supernova multiplier = 189395 FPPs = 1.6c/FPP = $3030.33
+$2200 milestone bonus ($3k - $800 worth of FPPs to purchase)
+$9679 winnings
---------------
$15011.73 total profit in October.
*Thanks to Will for this. He is now playing on his own roll and doing well.
A new personal best month continues the trend of a new record each month since I began in February. I imagine November will break this trend however, as I will not hit another milestone bonus until December, and I imagine I won't put in that many hands due to Wrath of the Litch King release.
One thing I've always found interesting is trying to determine a confidence interval for one's "true" winrate. Over the last 2 months, I believe I'm run pretty close to average during both, based on the metrics and measurement tools I have available to me (PokerEV, Setometer, etc). During that period, between $100NL and $200NL I have posted a 3.10ptBB/100 winrate over 271k hands. This is a significant sample size. My standard deviation (Pokertracker will calculate this for you) over this sample has been 30ptBB/100. Using uDevil's Poker Results Calculator with my data, we can form a 95% confidence interval around my winrate -+1.13ptBB/100. Thus, there is a 95% chance my true winrate during this period is between 1.97ptBB/100 and 4.23ptBB/100. Interesting.
A 99% confidence interval results in my winrate being +-1.68ptBB/100 (1.68ptBB/100 to 4.58ptBB/100). While these results are somewhat reassuring, it just goes to show what a giant factor variance is. If I had run in the bottom 5% in terms of luck over these two months, my 3.10ptBB/100 winrate could instead have been between 1.68ptBB/100 and 1.97ptBB/100. That is almost cut in half! Scary stuff.
Finally, lets address the goals I set:
(1) Start a new Pokertracker DB
Done, and it was a good idea to do this.
(2) Play 150k hands
Failure, no excuse.
(3) Play 12.5/10 ATS27 at the very nittiest
I ended up playing my stardard 12/9 ATS25. These goals are bullshit in the first place, I've got to stop setting them. Who cares if the 2+2 crowd loves the 17/15 ATS40 style.
(4) Play 20,000+ hands at 200NL
Failed, played 15.7k at 200NL. Still over 10% of my total hands, and game selection there is hard. I can definitely beat the limit handily though with good selection. More importantly perhaps I played 0 hands of 50NL this month. Yay.
Monday, October 27, 2008
The Weekend, The Dollar, and Eternal Sonata
From Thursday through Sunday I played ~28.5k hands. This number is dissapointing, as I really needed to play ~35k to give myself a good shot at reaching my 150k goal for the month. Over the hands I did play, I ran kind of bad. My Sklansky EV and all-in luck are close to neutral, the former of which is below:
Where I really suffered this weekend was in the heater versus cooler hand variety of luck. If you understand how Set-o-meter works and you have a weak stomach, you may wish to avert your eyes from the image below:
Being 2-outed four times and 1-outed once when in set vs overpair and set over set situations respectively isn't a lot of fun.
Focusing more on the positives, I did reach my 300k VPP milestone bonus as planned. This is a $3000 bonus that costs 50,000 FPPs. As the FPPs have $800 of cash value, this means the bonus is effectively worth $2200 in free money. I should hit my final milestone of the year in late December at 400k VPPs (for $3200 extra profit).
Enough about my results for the weekend. The freefall experienced by the Canadian Dollar relative to its US counterpart (in which all my figures are measured) has become a huge boon of late for myself. When I initially started withdrawing funds, the CDN$ was worth ~0.95c US. As of my withdrawal last night, it was worth 0.78c. This effectively gives me an extra 25c on the dollar I withdraw. Amazingly sexy.
Moving on, two games I had preordered were released last week. Eternal Sonata for the PS3 (which is actually a year old XBox 360 game that got ported) and Star Ocean: First Departure for PSP. Star Ocean was a must buy (I haven't touched it yet), but I hesitated on whether or not to pick up Eternal Sonata. However, as it was reviewed positively by some folks I trust, and I really want to get more use out of my PS3, I decided to pick it up. So far I have been thoroughly impressed. Gorgeous visuals (though in a very bright, cartoony style) combined with solid music (which is to be expected from a game in which Frederic Francois Chopin is a playable character) and an innovative and extremely fun combat system result in a very positive gaming experience. The character development has not yet been particularly creative or spectacular, and aside from the general premise (the game takes place inside Chopin's dreams on his deathbead - even better he is aware that he is inside a dream world) the plot is nothing to brag about, but you can't win them all.
Where I really suffered this weekend was in the heater versus cooler hand variety of luck. If you understand how Set-o-meter works and you have a weak stomach, you may wish to avert your eyes from the image below:
Being 2-outed four times and 1-outed once when in set vs overpair and set over set situations respectively isn't a lot of fun.
Focusing more on the positives, I did reach my 300k VPP milestone bonus as planned. This is a $3000 bonus that costs 50,000 FPPs. As the FPPs have $800 of cash value, this means the bonus is effectively worth $2200 in free money. I should hit my final milestone of the year in late December at 400k VPPs (for $3200 extra profit).
Enough about my results for the weekend. The freefall experienced by the Canadian Dollar relative to its US counterpart (in which all my figures are measured) has become a huge boon of late for myself. When I initially started withdrawing funds, the CDN$ was worth ~0.95c US. As of my withdrawal last night, it was worth 0.78c. This effectively gives me an extra 25c on the dollar I withdraw. Amazingly sexy.
Moving on, two games I had preordered were released last week. Eternal Sonata for the PS3 (which is actually a year old XBox 360 game that got ported) and Star Ocean: First Departure for PSP. Star Ocean was a must buy (I haven't touched it yet), but I hesitated on whether or not to pick up Eternal Sonata. However, as it was reviewed positively by some folks I trust, and I really want to get more use out of my PS3, I decided to pick it up. So far I have been thoroughly impressed. Gorgeous visuals (though in a very bright, cartoony style) combined with solid music (which is to be expected from a game in which Frederic Francois Chopin is a playable character) and an innovative and extremely fun combat system result in a very positive gaming experience. The character development has not yet been particularly creative or spectacular, and aside from the general premise (the game takes place inside Chopin's dreams on his deathbead - even better he is aware that he is inside a dream world) the plot is nothing to brag about, but you can't win them all.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Weekends Are The Nuts
People love weekends. When you're a kid, that Friday afternoon after school seems like the best time of your life every time it hits. While they may not be quite as exciting to the average adult, most still look forward to the weekend. Online poker players are no exception. Weekend play (especially at night) is completely different from play on weekdays. The fish population increases drastically, game selection becomes far better, and winrates increase as a result.
This weekend, I didn't play as much as I probably should have. When I did play, I ran well enough and made a lot of money. However, including the ~3k hands I put in on Thursday (where I went on a $900 heater), I only managed to log 19k hands. Here are my EV and luck graphs, including my Thursday session:
The minor downswing at the end sucked, and climaxed with a hero call 150bb deep I wish I could have back. All that said, I'm happy with my play and the results.
Here's a funny hand with no strategic value whatsoever:
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
UTG: $98.90 (98.9 bb)
UTG+1: $108.05 (108.1 bb)
MP1: $79.85 (79.9 bb)
MP2: $104 (104 bb)
MP3: $29.10 (29.1 bb)
Hero (CO): $148.95 (149 bb)
BTN: $104.30 (104.3 bb)
SB: $126.55 (126.6 bb)
BB: $115.20 (115.2 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with 4s 4d
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $1, MP2 raises to $5, MP3 folds, Hero calls $5, BTN folds, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls $4
Flop: ($16.50) 7h 2h 8h (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($16.50) 2s (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks
River: ($16.50) 4c (3 players)
MP1 bets $74.85 and is all-in, MP2 folds, Hero calls $74.85
Results: $166.20 pot ($3 rake)
MP1 showed Ah 5h (a flush, Ace high) and lost (-$79.85 net)
Hero showed 4s 4d (a full house, Fours full of Twos) and won $163.20 ($83.35 net)
This weekend, I didn't play as much as I probably should have. When I did play, I ran well enough and made a lot of money. However, including the ~3k hands I put in on Thursday (where I went on a $900 heater), I only managed to log 19k hands. Here are my EV and luck graphs, including my Thursday session:
The minor downswing at the end sucked, and climaxed with a hero call 150bb deep I wish I could have back. All that said, I'm happy with my play and the results.
Here's a funny hand with no strategic value whatsoever:
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
UTG: $98.90 (98.9 bb)
UTG+1: $108.05 (108.1 bb)
MP1: $79.85 (79.9 bb)
MP2: $104 (104 bb)
MP3: $29.10 (29.1 bb)
Hero (CO): $148.95 (149 bb)
BTN: $104.30 (104.3 bb)
SB: $126.55 (126.6 bb)
BB: $115.20 (115.2 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with 4s 4d
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $1, MP2 raises to $5, MP3 folds, Hero calls $5, BTN folds, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls $4
Flop: ($16.50) 7h 2h 8h (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($16.50) 2s (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks
River: ($16.50) 4c (3 players)
MP1 bets $74.85 and is all-in, MP2 folds, Hero calls $74.85
Results: $166.20 pot ($3 rake)
MP1 showed Ah 5h (a flush, Ace high) and lost (-$79.85 net)
Hero showed 4s 4d (a full house, Fours full of Twos) and won $163.20 ($83.35 net)
Friday, October 17, 2008
Heaters are fun
I played a short 2 hour session last night and ended up making ~$900 ($840 winnings, $60 rakeback). I did generate EV and luck graphs, but unfortunately forgot to email them to myself so I could post them from work today. Lets just say I ran like absolute God. I hit pretty much every draw. I think I was around $500-$600 above expectation in both Sklansky and all-in EV. It's nice to have some good luck for a change.
The biggest pot I took down was a $200NL heater hand where my AA was up against villain's KK. We were slightly deeper than normal (110BB or so) and AA held up. Unfortunately I did run my KK into AA once at $100NL and was set over set once at 100NL as well (QQQ versus AAA isn't cool) so from a heater vs. cooler perspective I was right around even.
Another big pot I won was multiway with two donkeys. It was one of those spots that comes purely down to pot odds, and I'm going to review it here to see if I made the right decision. It's going to be close either way.
I raised from EP with AdJd, got flatted by two fish, one running 50/10 and the other 30/5 or so. They're both bad obviously. Flop came 67T, two diamonds. I bet out something like $9 into the $12 pot, and the first donkey jammed the rest of his stack $90~ in. Other donkey calls. There is now ~$200 in pot, and I have to call $90. I'm going to whip up some hand ranges and try to come up with the EV of a call. I thought at the time that it was a call even if one of two donks always has a set or a straight.
I'm getting 2.22:1 on a call, so I need 31% equity for the call to be neutral EV. Lets consider two cases, the first being the "reasonable case" scenario, where the second donkey is willing to stack off somewhat light. The second case to be considered will be one where the second donk always has a set/straight and our overcards are never outs.
(1) Reasonable case:
Hero: 33.312% AdJd
SuperDonk: 21.202% TT-QQ,ATo,ATs,KTo,KTs,QTo,QTs,JTo,JTs,QdJd,KdTd,KdQd,Kd9d,T7o,T7s,T6o,T6s,76o,76s,98o,98s
RegularDonk: 45.486% TT-QQ, 66-77, 98s, 76s, 98o, 76o
Wow, thought I'd have more equity than that. I guess Superdonk having two of my outs some of the time hurts.
(2) Worst case:
Hero: 31.689 % 31.644 % 0.091 % 68.265 % AdJd
SuperDonk: 12.050 % 9.844 % 4.412 % 85.744 % TT-QQ,ATo,ATs,KTo,KTs,QTo,QTs,JTo,JTs,QdJd,KdTd,KdQd,Kd9d,T7o,T7s,T6o,T6s,76o,76s,98o,98s
RegularDonk: 56.260 % 54.099 % 4.322 % 41.579 % TT,66-77,89o,89s
Even in this case, we still have the equity necessary to call. Cool. I thought it was going to be close, but I expected both cases to be slightly higher EV than they are. Thankfully the 4d hit on the turn and I ended up taking it down.
The biggest pot I took down was a $200NL heater hand where my AA was up against villain's KK. We were slightly deeper than normal (110BB or so) and AA held up. Unfortunately I did run my KK into AA once at $100NL and was set over set once at 100NL as well (QQQ versus AAA isn't cool) so from a heater vs. cooler perspective I was right around even.
Another big pot I won was multiway with two donkeys. It was one of those spots that comes purely down to pot odds, and I'm going to review it here to see if I made the right decision. It's going to be close either way.
I raised from EP with AdJd, got flatted by two fish, one running 50/10 and the other 30/5 or so. They're both bad obviously. Flop came 67T, two diamonds. I bet out something like $9 into the $12 pot, and the first donkey jammed the rest of his stack $90~ in. Other donkey calls. There is now ~$200 in pot, and I have to call $90. I'm going to whip up some hand ranges and try to come up with the EV of a call. I thought at the time that it was a call even if one of two donks always has a set or a straight.
I'm getting 2.22:1 on a call, so I need 31% equity for the call to be neutral EV. Lets consider two cases, the first being the "reasonable case" scenario, where the second donkey is willing to stack off somewhat light. The second case to be considered will be one where the second donk always has a set/straight and our overcards are never outs.
(1) Reasonable case:
Hero: 33.312% AdJd
SuperDonk: 21.202% TT-QQ,ATo,ATs,KTo,KTs,QTo,QTs,JTo,JTs,QdJd,KdTd,KdQd,Kd9d,T7o,T7s,T6o,T6s,76o,76s,98o,98s
RegularDonk: 45.486% TT-QQ, 66-77, 98s, 76s, 98o, 76o
Wow, thought I'd have more equity than that. I guess Superdonk having two of my outs some of the time hurts.
(2) Worst case:
Hero: 31.689 % 31.644 % 0.091 % 68.265 % AdJd
SuperDonk: 12.050 % 9.844 % 4.412 % 85.744 % TT-QQ,ATo,ATs,KTo,KTs,QTo,QTs,JTo,JTs,QdJd,KdTd,KdQd,Kd9d,T7o,T7s,T6o,T6s,76o,76s,98o,98s
RegularDonk: 56.260 % 54.099 % 4.322 % 41.579 % TT,66-77,89o,89s
Even in this case, we still have the equity necessary to call. Cool. I thought it was going to be close, but I expected both cases to be slightly higher EV than they are. Thankfully the 4d hit on the turn and I ended up taking it down.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Them kids these days...
... wouldn't know a good character if it bit them in the ass. The brackets for GameFAQs yearly character battle (in which fictional characters compete in a popularity contest) can be found here. Here are just a few of the travesties that have occurred so far in the first round:
Kain Highwind (FF4) fails to advance from his bracket in favor of Master Chief (HALO) and Raiden (MGS). I understand that there are a lot of HALO and MGS fanboys out there, but for God's sake, MGS fans don't even like Raiden! Just because FF4 was released around the same time many of the voters were being born screws one of the greatest video game characters ever.
Ness fails to advance from his bracket in favor of Pac-Man and Mewtwo. Pac-Man I can see. I don't have a problem with Pac-Man. But fucking Mewtwo? Seriously?
Balthier Bunansa fails to advance from his bracket in favor of Scorpion (MK) and Gordon Freeman (Half-Life). Does anyone even care about Mortal Combat anymore? Didn't think so. Even worse, I didn't even know who Gordon Freeman was and had to look it up. Ridiculous.
Kefka (FF6) fails to advance from his bracket in favor of Marth (Fire Emblem) and Duke Nukem. Arguably the greatest villain in a video game ever goes out in the first round to the poster boy for vaporware, and Marth. Marth is from a game that I would imagine 95%+ of the population which voted for him have never played. He only gets votes because he appears in Smash Bros. Gah.
At any rate, since this is a poker blog I'll talk poker for a bit. I ran like shit this weekend, having my first large downswing in awhile on Friday (to the tune of 15 BIs). While I did manage to recover and end up profitable on the long weekend, it certainly didn't live up to its potential.
For those who understand what this means, here's a Set-o-meter shot of my weekend to make your eyes bleed (I also ran bad in all-in EV, but I'll stick to the more appalling shot):
Since it is halfway through the month, here are my EV/luck graphs for the month so far. In total I'm sitting at around +$5.5k ($3.7k winnings + $1.8k rakeback). Note that I've actually run below average on the month so far.
Kain Highwind (FF4) fails to advance from his bracket in favor of Master Chief (HALO) and Raiden (MGS). I understand that there are a lot of HALO and MGS fanboys out there, but for God's sake, MGS fans don't even like Raiden! Just because FF4 was released around the same time many of the voters were being born screws one of the greatest video game characters ever.
Ness fails to advance from his bracket in favor of Pac-Man and Mewtwo. Pac-Man I can see. I don't have a problem with Pac-Man. But fucking Mewtwo? Seriously?
Balthier Bunansa fails to advance from his bracket in favor of Scorpion (MK) and Gordon Freeman (Half-Life). Does anyone even care about Mortal Combat anymore? Didn't think so. Even worse, I didn't even know who Gordon Freeman was and had to look it up. Ridiculous.
Kefka (FF6) fails to advance from his bracket in favor of Marth (Fire Emblem) and Duke Nukem. Arguably the greatest villain in a video game ever goes out in the first round to the poster boy for vaporware, and Marth. Marth is from a game that I would imagine 95%+ of the population which voted for him have never played. He only gets votes because he appears in Smash Bros. Gah.
At any rate, since this is a poker blog I'll talk poker for a bit. I ran like shit this weekend, having my first large downswing in awhile on Friday (to the tune of 15 BIs). While I did manage to recover and end up profitable on the long weekend, it certainly didn't live up to its potential.
For those who understand what this means, here's a Set-o-meter shot of my weekend to make your eyes bleed (I also ran bad in all-in EV, but I'll stick to the more appalling shot):
Since it is halfway through the month, here are my EV/luck graphs for the month so far. In total I'm sitting at around +$5.5k ($3.7k winnings + $1.8k rakeback). Note that I've actually run below average on the month so far.
Monday, October 6, 2008
First 3k Weekend
On the weekend I pulled in a little over $3k in winnings + rakeback. I put in 4k hands of 200NL (along with ~26k of 100NL) over the stretch, with solid results. I'm definitely confident I'll be a solid winner at 200NL, but game selection there is typically quite poor compared to 100NL.
Here are my EV and all in-luck graphs for the month of October so far:
I've run a little good in Sklansky bucks, and a little bad in all-in EV. Probably fairly average on the whole so far, which is awesome since my winrate is sitting around 3.7ptBB/100 currently. Crushing the games is fun.
Here are my EV and all in-luck graphs for the month of October so far:
I've run a little good in Sklansky bucks, and a little bad in all-in EV. Probably fairly average on the whole so far, which is awesome since my winrate is sitting around 3.7ptBB/100 currently. Crushing the games is fun.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
Collusion at 100NL?
Stars sent me this email yesterday:
Presumably they busted some people colluding, no idea who it could have been. I doubt it was a regular, personally. At any rate, I won't complain about a free $38. I'm in the middle of a very profitable weekend, stay tuned for a review post on Monday.
Presumably they busted some people colluding, no idea who it could have been. I doubt it was a regular, personally. At any rate, I won't complain about a free $38. I'm in the middle of a very profitable weekend, stay tuned for a review post on Monday.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
October Goals
Before I get started with my goals for the month, one thing I like to do every so often for kicks is google my Stars screen name. While the bulk of the results are HHs where I fold preflop, today I found a 4 page long thread on french poker forum about this hand.
Aside from the epicness of the hand in general, I never really thought much about the river. It's AAAA versus a Royal Flush, of course the money is going in right? However, if you think about my range on the river, it is basically only bluffs + royals. I can't have AK, and I obviously only flat call river with KK. That said, a bluff makes a lot more sense than a royal there, so I really don't think he can fold the quads, lol.
On to my goals:
(1) Start a new Pokertracker DB
I will be importing my 150k hands from last month into this DB. The purpose of the new database is to both increase performance and keep my HUD stats more relevant. Currently against some players I have many thousands of hands from 50NL and sometimes even 25NL, when they were much worse and way nittier than they are currently. Thus, using the last month as a reference point should increase my ability to make accurate reads based on stats.
(2) Play 150k hands
I marginally failed this goal last month, and it seems like a good aggressive number to shoot for while avoiding burnout.
(3) Play 12.5/10 ATS27 at the very nittiest
Less aggressive than last month, but I really think I'm playing better when I open more hands from LP. I stacked a donkey with 60BB last month when I was stealing with K8, so it must be good!
(4) Play 20,000+ hands at 200NL
I need to start breaking into 200NL, but I always seem to find reasons to avoid those tables. Baby steps.
I think the thing I need to be worried about the most with respect to poker currently is complacency. I could go forward grinding out ~10k a month right now np, but I don't think that will be terribly fun. Instead, I need to keep pushing myself forward, despite the additional risk. I need to keep getting better and improving my game. Playing more 200NL will help.
When I started grinding seriously 6-8 tabling 25NL, I wanted to one day be megatabling 100NL-200NL, and to be able to make significant money doing so. I'm there right now. I don't think I ever really thought that to be playing midstakes+ was a good realistic goal, though maybe it should have been. It would be great to be Keli 2.0, playing 24 tables of 2/4, 3/6 and 5/10 and making $50k+/month. I might not have the skill ceiling to get there, but I don't know that yet. If I keep trying to get better and play higher, at the least I'll find out. Because I'll be easing myself in to higher limits while keeping many tables of the lower, it shouldn't be a major financial risk either. I guess the real risk is to my ego. At the very least, I'm pretty sure I can beat 200NL, and I need to man up and play more of it, even if the games aren't as fishy as 100NL (they definitely aren't).
Aside from the epicness of the hand in general, I never really thought much about the river. It's AAAA versus a Royal Flush, of course the money is going in right? However, if you think about my range on the river, it is basically only bluffs + royals. I can't have AK, and I obviously only flat call river with KK. That said, a bluff makes a lot more sense than a royal there, so I really don't think he can fold the quads, lol.
On to my goals:
(1) Start a new Pokertracker DB
I will be importing my 150k hands from last month into this DB. The purpose of the new database is to both increase performance and keep my HUD stats more relevant. Currently against some players I have many thousands of hands from 50NL and sometimes even 25NL, when they were much worse and way nittier than they are currently. Thus, using the last month as a reference point should increase my ability to make accurate reads based on stats.
(2) Play 150k hands
I marginally failed this goal last month, and it seems like a good aggressive number to shoot for while avoiding burnout.
(3) Play 12.5/10 ATS27 at the very nittiest
Less aggressive than last month, but I really think I'm playing better when I open more hands from LP. I stacked a donkey with 60BB last month when I was stealing with K8, so it must be good!
(4) Play 20,000+ hands at 200NL
I need to start breaking into 200NL, but I always seem to find reasons to avoid those tables. Baby steps.
I think the thing I need to be worried about the most with respect to poker currently is complacency. I could go forward grinding out ~10k a month right now np, but I don't think that will be terribly fun. Instead, I need to keep pushing myself forward, despite the additional risk. I need to keep getting better and improving my game. Playing more 200NL will help.
When I started grinding seriously 6-8 tabling 25NL, I wanted to one day be megatabling 100NL-200NL, and to be able to make significant money doing so. I'm there right now. I don't think I ever really thought that to be playing midstakes+ was a good realistic goal, though maybe it should have been. It would be great to be Keli 2.0, playing 24 tables of 2/4, 3/6 and 5/10 and making $50k+/month. I might not have the skill ceiling to get there, but I don't know that yet. If I keep trying to get better and play higher, at the least I'll find out. Because I'll be easing myself in to higher limits while keeping many tables of the lower, it shouldn't be a major financial risk either. I guess the real risk is to my ego. At the very least, I'm pretty sure I can beat 200NL, and I need to man up and play more of it, even if the games aren't as fishy as 100NL (they definitely aren't).
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
September Review - Ship It!
As I don't intend to play at all this evening, my month finished with an hour long mini-heater last night. September as a whole has been an extremely refreshing month after running so bad during the bulk of July and August. I also cleared my first ever Supernova milestone bonus, which contributed an early $1200 of free money (if all goes according to plan, I'll hit the $2200 bonus near the end of October).
To begin, here is a breakdown of my play in both tabular and graphical form:
That's one sexy graph.
Because PokerEV can't handle extremely large volumes of hands, I posted mid-month EV and luck graphs back in this post. At that point overall, I had run very close to average (marginally bad, if you want to be picky). Here is my EV and all-in luck for the 2nd half of the month:
As you can see above, during the 2nd half of the month I ran well in terms of Sklansky EV, and marginally good in terms of all-in EV.
Here are my Set-o-meter results for the entire month:
Wow. Looks like I had damn bad luck flopping sets this month. Heater versus cooler hands seem to be pretty much neutral.
Combining my first half EV/luck, second half EV/luck, and Set-o-meter results, I think it is fair to say I probably ran very very close to dead on average this month. That said, even running average feels amazing after July/August.
Time to look at my September goals:
1) Play 150k+ hands.
Uh, I could have sworn I met this goal, but my table/graph say different. I guess Pokertracker's original filter I was using was counting hands played between 12:00AM and 6:00AM on Sept 1st, while the filter used in the graph/table exclude these (correctly, as they were counted in August). Failed it seem, though marginally. Oops.
Note that this since I've started playing, this is the first month I played less hands than the month previous. I'm ok with this to be honest, the 200k I put in during August was too much (and was a result of how abysmally I ran). 150k seems like a good number for a month while playing part time.
2) VPIP > 13, PFR > 10, ATS > 28
Fail. Sometimes I play a 13/10 ATS 30 game, and sometimes I end up around 11/9 ATS 25. They don't feel terribly different when I'm playing them. It may be result of whether or not my session is during a weekend, where I tend to focus on stealing/exploiting regs less and valuetowning the donks more. Who knows. Either way, obviously I need to make a better conscious effort here.
Unofficial 3) Make five figures of profit
Achieved and exceeded by a non-trivial margin. See below.
The bottom line:
$7844.40 winnings + $3074.06 rakeback* + $1200 milestone bonus + $30.90 staking profit** = $12149.33 total profit
*54,894 VPPs x 3.5 FPPs/VPP x 1.6c/FPP = $3074.06
**25% of the profit made by my single stakee at 10NL. He has since been playing 25NL under a stake from myself, so I expect I'll have some staking related profit next month too!
Earnings wise, a very solid month. I think the 2.68ptBB/100 winrate is a good value for a 24 tabler, and quite accurately reflects where my game is currently at. The one thing I'm concerned about going forward is finding the motivation to play higher and keep improving. More on this when I address my October goals in an upcoming post.
Finally, as one of my October goals will be to start a "fresh" DB (I'll actually import my last 150k hands or so into it for HUD purposes), I decided to do another lifetime graph.
So, here is the start of my career through the end of September 2008:
Add to that ~$14k rakeback and my $1.2k milestone and you'll be close to my yearly profit. Not too shabby so far.
To begin, here is a breakdown of my play in both tabular and graphical form:
That's one sexy graph.
Because PokerEV can't handle extremely large volumes of hands, I posted mid-month EV and luck graphs back in this post. At that point overall, I had run very close to average (marginally bad, if you want to be picky). Here is my EV and all-in luck for the 2nd half of the month:
As you can see above, during the 2nd half of the month I ran well in terms of Sklansky EV, and marginally good in terms of all-in EV.
Here are my Set-o-meter results for the entire month:
Wow. Looks like I had damn bad luck flopping sets this month. Heater versus cooler hands seem to be pretty much neutral.
Combining my first half EV/luck, second half EV/luck, and Set-o-meter results, I think it is fair to say I probably ran very very close to dead on average this month. That said, even running average feels amazing after July/August.
Time to look at my September goals:
1) Play 150k+ hands.
Uh, I could have sworn I met this goal, but my table/graph say different. I guess Pokertracker's original filter I was using was counting hands played between 12:00AM and 6:00AM on Sept 1st, while the filter used in the graph/table exclude these (correctly, as they were counted in August). Failed it seem, though marginally. Oops.
Note that this since I've started playing, this is the first month I played less hands than the month previous. I'm ok with this to be honest, the 200k I put in during August was too much (and was a result of how abysmally I ran). 150k seems like a good number for a month while playing part time.
2) VPIP > 13, PFR > 10, ATS > 28
Fail. Sometimes I play a 13/10 ATS 30 game, and sometimes I end up around 11/9 ATS 25. They don't feel terribly different when I'm playing them. It may be result of whether or not my session is during a weekend, where I tend to focus on stealing/exploiting regs less and valuetowning the donks more. Who knows. Either way, obviously I need to make a better conscious effort here.
Unofficial 3) Make five figures of profit
Achieved and exceeded by a non-trivial margin. See below.
The bottom line:
$7844.40 winnings + $3074.06 rakeback* + $1200 milestone bonus + $30.90 staking profit** = $12149.33 total profit
*54,894 VPPs x 3.5 FPPs/VPP x 1.6c/FPP = $3074.06
**25% of the profit made by my single stakee at 10NL. He has since been playing 25NL under a stake from myself, so I expect I'll have some staking related profit next month too!
Earnings wise, a very solid month. I think the 2.68ptBB/100 winrate is a good value for a 24 tabler, and quite accurately reflects where my game is currently at. The one thing I'm concerned about going forward is finding the motivation to play higher and keep improving. More on this when I address my October goals in an upcoming post.
Finally, as one of my October goals will be to start a "fresh" DB (I'll actually import my last 150k hands or so into it for HUD purposes), I decided to do another lifetime graph.
So, here is the start of my career through the end of September 2008:
Add to that ~$14k rakeback and my $1.2k milestone and you'll be close to my yearly profit. Not too shabby so far.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Not A Bad Weekend
I put in 22k hands over the weekend, running very well on Saturday in terms of equity, but ran into an incredibly sick number of cooler hands on Sunday to limit my earning to ~$1.8k ($1.4k winnings, $400 rakeback). Here are the graphs:
I had several really weird hands during my sessions, the strangest of which I'll post below. Villain is a ~15/12/4 reg who seems pretty aggro. Note that I probably play the hand pretty badly, I'll try to analyze it street by street in the HH.
Keep in mind that we are 185bb deep.
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
SB: $186.90 (186.9 bb)
Hero (BB): $237.15 (237.2 bb)
MP1: $198.80 (198.8 bb)
MP2: $100 (100 bb)
MP3: $154.35 (154.4 bb)
CO: $69.30 (69.3 bb)
BTN: $100 (100 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with Th Qs
5 folds, SB raises to $4, Hero raises to $14.50, SB calls $10.50
Villain likes to steal blinds, so I bluff 3-bet. He should be very reluctant to call here since we are so deep, and the deeper the stacks the more position matters.
Flop: ($29) 9s Ts Jh (2 players)
SB bets $25, Hero calls $25
One would think that a big pair would have 4-bet preflop given the stack sizes. Thus, villain's hand looks very much like a set here that doesn't want to peel a card. That said, we have deep stacks and an OESD + pair, so I'm just not ready to fold with my implied odds. That said, trying not to be results oriented, folding may actually be the correct play here.
Turn: ($79) 2s (2 players)
SB bets $50, Hero calls $50
I pick up a flush draw as well. If villain has a set, then my flush outs are good and I have a 14 out draw, getting 2.5:1 on my money with solid implied odds as well. He could also have some 2-pair hands I have Q outs against. I probably don't have much fold equity (people always prove to me I have more FE than I think I do however), so shoving doesn't seem great. Shoving is probably better than calling here though. What an ugly spot. I play bad and call.
River: ($179) Kd (2 players)
SB bets $97.40 and is all-in, Hero calls $97.40
Gin card for us, snap call. WTF on villain's part, way to bluff off 185BBs.
Results: $373.80 pot ($3.00 rake)
SB showed Ac 6c (high card Ace) and lost (-$186.90 net)
Hero showed Th Qs (a straight, Nine to King) and won $370.80 ($183.90 net)
I had several really weird hands during my sessions, the strangest of which I'll post below. Villain is a ~15/12/4 reg who seems pretty aggro. Note that I probably play the hand pretty badly, I'll try to analyze it street by street in the HH.
Keep in mind that we are 185bb deep.
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
SB: $186.90 (186.9 bb)
Hero (BB): $237.15 (237.2 bb)
MP1: $198.80 (198.8 bb)
MP2: $100 (100 bb)
MP3: $154.35 (154.4 bb)
CO: $69.30 (69.3 bb)
BTN: $100 (100 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with Th Qs
5 folds, SB raises to $4, Hero raises to $14.50, SB calls $10.50
Villain likes to steal blinds, so I bluff 3-bet. He should be very reluctant to call here since we are so deep, and the deeper the stacks the more position matters.
Flop: ($29) 9s Ts Jh (2 players)
SB bets $25, Hero calls $25
One would think that a big pair would have 4-bet preflop given the stack sizes. Thus, villain's hand looks very much like a set here that doesn't want to peel a card. That said, we have deep stacks and an OESD + pair, so I'm just not ready to fold with my implied odds. That said, trying not to be results oriented, folding may actually be the correct play here.
Turn: ($79) 2s (2 players)
SB bets $50, Hero calls $50
I pick up a flush draw as well. If villain has a set, then my flush outs are good and I have a 14 out draw, getting 2.5:1 on my money with solid implied odds as well. He could also have some 2-pair hands I have Q outs against. I probably don't have much fold equity (people always prove to me I have more FE than I think I do however), so shoving doesn't seem great. Shoving is probably better than calling here though. What an ugly spot. I play bad and call.
River: ($179) Kd (2 players)
SB bets $97.40 and is all-in, Hero calls $97.40
Gin card for us, snap call. WTF on villain's part, way to bluff off 185BBs.
Results: $373.80 pot ($3.00 rake)
SB showed Ac 6c (high card Ace) and lost (-$186.90 net)
Hero showed Th Qs (a straight, Nine to King) and won $370.80 ($183.90 net)
Friday, September 26, 2008
Cooler Wednesday -> Heater Thursday
I played a nasty session on Wednesday where I finished something like -$250, and as one might imagine my EV (especially all-in luck) was absolutely abysmal. Fortunately I went on a nice heater on Thursday to follow it (around +$600 with rakeback) so things normalized quite quickly.
Here are EV and all-in luck graphs for the two sessions combined:
The big spike around hand 4750 was me getting it all in with a donkey 150BB deep. I had KK versus his AK on a KQx flop. It was a 3-bet pot preflop.
On the month as a whole I am right around $9.9k profit thus far, with a weekend and a couple weekdays to go. Barring a major downswing, my unofficial profit goal for the month should be realized. On one hand it's a lot of money which is awesome, on the other it's a figure I've known I'm capable of for awhile, I just needed to not run terrible as I did in July and August. I guess it'll be more of a relief than anything else.
Here are EV and all-in luck graphs for the two sessions combined:
The big spike around hand 4750 was me getting it all in with a donkey 150BB deep. I had KK versus his AK on a KQx flop. It was a 3-bet pot preflop.
On the month as a whole I am right around $9.9k profit thus far, with a weekend and a couple weekdays to go. Barring a major downswing, my unofficial profit goal for the month should be realized. On one hand it's a lot of money which is awesome, on the other it's a figure I've known I'm capable of for awhile, I just needed to not run terrible as I did in July and August. I guess it'll be more of a relief than anything else.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
A Fun Hand
Over the weekend I struggled, ran fairly poorly, and made around $1k total. Half of it was rakeback, which sucks.
I did however have one really great hand awhile ago, likely on Thursday night against a massive donk. He was running something like 60/20, and loved to bluff overbet rivers. We had recently played a pot where he limped in MP, I raised from the BU with AJ. Flop came AQx and I bet, he called. Turn T, check check. He overbets ~$40 into a $25 pot on the blank river. I call and he shows T7o, I scoop.
I'm not sure how he ran his stack up after the previous hand left him with $50 or so, but note that we are 150BB deep here.
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
BTN: $89.75 (89.8 bb)
SB: $127.10 (127.1 bb)
BB: $64.30 (64.3 bb)
UTG+1: $150.50 (150.5 bb)
MP1: $132.30 (132.3 bb)
MP2: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (MP3): $153.95 (154 bb)
CO: $114.45 (114.5 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with 3h 3s UTG+1 raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero calls $2, 4 folds
Standard.
Flop: ($5.50) 2s Js Jh (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks
No reason to bet here, especially against a big donk.
Turn: ($5.50) Qh (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks
Same as flop, likely no value in betting unless we want to induce a spaz raise and call down, which doesn't seem fun.
River: ($5.50) 3c (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $5, UTG+1 raises to $53, Hero raises to $151.95 and is all-in, UTG+1 calls $95.50 and is all-in
Best river ever. I expected him to raise my river bet with air here a lot, but when he raised so much I got all tingly. When he called my value shove I half expected to see a random Q or something of the sort. Instead he slowplayed three streets with trips only to get owned for 150BB pot on the river. NH sir. Thank God he didn't have quads.
Results: $302.50 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed 3h 3s (a full house, Threes full of Jacks) and won $299.50 ($149 net)
UTG+1 mucked Jd Th (three of a kind, Jacks) and lost (-$150.50 net)
I did however have one really great hand awhile ago, likely on Thursday night against a massive donk. He was running something like 60/20, and loved to bluff overbet rivers. We had recently played a pot where he limped in MP, I raised from the BU with AJ. Flop came AQx and I bet, he called. Turn T, check check. He overbets ~$40 into a $25 pot on the blank river. I call and he shows T7o, I scoop.
I'm not sure how he ran his stack up after the previous hand left him with $50 or so, but note that we are 150BB deep here.
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
BTN: $89.75 (89.8 bb)
SB: $127.10 (127.1 bb)
BB: $64.30 (64.3 bb)
UTG+1: $150.50 (150.5 bb)
MP1: $132.30 (132.3 bb)
MP2: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (MP3): $153.95 (154 bb)
CO: $114.45 (114.5 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with 3h 3s UTG+1 raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero calls $2, 4 folds
Standard.
Flop: ($5.50) 2s Js Jh (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks
No reason to bet here, especially against a big donk.
Turn: ($5.50) Qh (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks
Same as flop, likely no value in betting unless we want to induce a spaz raise and call down, which doesn't seem fun.
River: ($5.50) 3c (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $5, UTG+1 raises to $53, Hero raises to $151.95 and is all-in, UTG+1 calls $95.50 and is all-in
Best river ever. I expected him to raise my river bet with air here a lot, but when he raised so much I got all tingly. When he called my value shove I half expected to see a random Q or something of the sort. Instead he slowplayed three streets with trips only to get owned for 150BB pot on the river. NH sir. Thank God he didn't have quads.
Results: $302.50 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed 3h 3s (a full house, Threes full of Jacks) and won $299.50 ($149 net)
UTG+1 mucked Jd Th (three of a kind, Jacks) and lost (-$150.50 net)
Friday, September 19, 2008
Run Bad, Win Monies
Haven't played much lately, but I put in sessions on Monday (ran bad), and Thursday (ran bad). I ended up basically break even on Monday (marginally positive iirc) and here is my EV graph from Thursday:
The best part about my Thursday session however, was that I owned the souls of a couple regs. In the first instance, I took a very non-standard line with AA. I was HU on the flop OOP as the PFR, took c/c lines on flop and turn, vbet small on river and paid off by JJ. In the same spot against the same reg with KK, I instead bet a very dry flop, and got raised. Because I had not c-bet with AA, he probably thought I had air. I called, turn checked through. On river I spiked a K for the boat (I figured I was ahead anyway), and v-bet half pot, which ended up being around half the remaining effective stacks. He insta-shoved 77, which was absolutely retarded (on a 66J2K no flush board).
The other instance was against a complete playmachine spewtard who I have serious regwarz with. During this hand I almost pulled off the trifecta, which is check raising all three postflop streets. Unfortunately we weren't deep enough for me to pull off the full thing. Here's the hand:
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
UTG: $51.95 (52 bb)
UTG+1: $162.15 (162.2 bb)
MP1: $97 (97 bb)
MP2: $130.15 (130.2 bb)
MP3: $100.10 (100.1 bb)
CO: $28.50 (28.5 bb)
BTN: $130.05 (130.1 bb)
Hero (SB): $151.15 (151.2 bb)
BB: $252.50 (252.5 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with Jc Js
6 folds, BTN raises to $3, Hero calls $2.50, BB folds
Sometimes I'd 3-bet here as I know he steals really light. I don't mind calling either.
Flop: ($7) Jd Jh 9h (2 players) Hero checks, BTN bets $4.50, Hero raises to $15, BTN calls $10.50
I love raising here because he knows that I'm doing it with air a lot of the time. I think my smaller raise size makes it seem a little more bluffy than usual.
Turn: ($37) Th (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $31, Hero raises to $129, BTN calls $81.05 and is all-in
Since I figure he'll put me on air if I check, I do so. He bets big, I jam. Good game.
River: ($261.10) Qc (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Results: $261.10 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Jc Js (four of a kind, Jacks) and won $258.10 ($128.05 net)
BTN mucked 2h Qh (a flush, Queen high) and lost (-$130.05 net)
The best part about my Thursday session however, was that I owned the souls of a couple regs. In the first instance, I took a very non-standard line with AA. I was HU on the flop OOP as the PFR, took c/c lines on flop and turn, vbet small on river and paid off by JJ. In the same spot against the same reg with KK, I instead bet a very dry flop, and got raised. Because I had not c-bet with AA, he probably thought I had air. I called, turn checked through. On river I spiked a K for the boat (I figured I was ahead anyway), and v-bet half pot, which ended up being around half the remaining effective stacks. He insta-shoved 77, which was absolutely retarded (on a 66J2K no flush board).
The other instance was against a complete playmachine spewtard who I have serious regwarz with. During this hand I almost pulled off the trifecta, which is check raising all three postflop streets. Unfortunately we weren't deep enough for me to pull off the full thing. Here's the hand:
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
UTG: $51.95 (52 bb)
UTG+1: $162.15 (162.2 bb)
MP1: $97 (97 bb)
MP2: $130.15 (130.2 bb)
MP3: $100.10 (100.1 bb)
CO: $28.50 (28.5 bb)
BTN: $130.05 (130.1 bb)
Hero (SB): $151.15 (151.2 bb)
BB: $252.50 (252.5 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with Jc Js
6 folds, BTN raises to $3, Hero calls $2.50, BB folds
Sometimes I'd 3-bet here as I know he steals really light. I don't mind calling either.
Flop: ($7) Jd Jh 9h (2 players) Hero checks, BTN bets $4.50, Hero raises to $15, BTN calls $10.50
I love raising here because he knows that I'm doing it with air a lot of the time. I think my smaller raise size makes it seem a little more bluffy than usual.
Turn: ($37) Th (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $31, Hero raises to $129, BTN calls $81.05 and is all-in
Since I figure he'll put me on air if I check, I do so. He bets big, I jam. Good game.
River: ($261.10) Qc (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Results: $261.10 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Jc Js (four of a kind, Jacks) and won $258.10 ($128.05 net)
BTN mucked 2h Qh (a flush, Queen high) and lost (-$130.05 net)
Monday, September 15, 2008
Weekend Recap and Half Month Graphs
I played 26k hands between Thursday and Sunday, running pretty average during two of the sessions and poorly during the other two. Thus, I ran bad overall on the weekend, but managed around 1.5k total profit (1k winnings, 500 rakeback).
Here are my EV and luck graphs for the period:
The last couple months I haven't been able to publish end of month EV graphs due to PokerEV's inability to load extremely large hand samples (more RAM might fix this problem for me, hard to say). Thus, as I'm at the half way point of the month I decided to fire off EV and luck graphs up until this point to see how I've been running. Here they are:
As you can see, I've actually run marginally bad on the month so far. Considering I've put up what I consider to be impressive results, this really just goes to show just how poorly I ran during August and late July. After going through that, running marginally bad feels like running good!
Finally, here's a fun hand from very late Saturday night. The villain in this hand is a 90/60/3 uberdonk (yes, you read that right) who is already down ~$600 on the night. Note that we are 190BB deep. With only 100BB behind I would probably not have called flop, even against this spewtard.
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
BTN: $217.40 (217.4 bb)
SB: $20 (20 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $127.85 (127.9 bb)
MP1: $100 (100 bb)
MP2: $167.65 (167.7 bb)
MP3: $235.75 (235.8 bb)
Hero (CO): $190.45 (190.5 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with Ks Qs
3 folds, MP3 raises to $2, Hero calls $2, BTN calls $2, 2 folds
Flop: ($7.50) As Tc 8h (3 players)
MP3 bets $3.75, Hero calls $3.75, BTN folds
Turn: ($15) Jh (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $14, MP3 raises to $28, Hero raises to $84, MP3 calls $56
River: ($183) 5c (2 players)
MP3 bets $1.70, Hero raises to $100.70 and is all-in, MP3 calls $99
Results: $384.40 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Ks Qs (a straight, Ten to Ace) and won $381.40 ($190.95 net)
MP3 mucked 7c 9c (a straight, Seven to Jack) and lost (-$190.45 net)
Here are my EV and luck graphs for the period:
The last couple months I haven't been able to publish end of month EV graphs due to PokerEV's inability to load extremely large hand samples (more RAM might fix this problem for me, hard to say). Thus, as I'm at the half way point of the month I decided to fire off EV and luck graphs up until this point to see how I've been running. Here they are:
As you can see, I've actually run marginally bad on the month so far. Considering I've put up what I consider to be impressive results, this really just goes to show just how poorly I ran during August and late July. After going through that, running marginally bad feels like running good!
Finally, here's a fun hand from very late Saturday night. The villain in this hand is a 90/60/3 uberdonk (yes, you read that right) who is already down ~$600 on the night. Note that we are 190BB deep. With only 100BB behind I would probably not have called flop, even against this spewtard.
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
BTN: $217.40 (217.4 bb)
SB: $20 (20 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $127.85 (127.9 bb)
MP1: $100 (100 bb)
MP2: $167.65 (167.7 bb)
MP3: $235.75 (235.8 bb)
Hero (CO): $190.45 (190.5 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with Ks Qs
3 folds, MP3 raises to $2, Hero calls $2, BTN calls $2, 2 folds
Flop: ($7.50) As Tc 8h (3 players)
MP3 bets $3.75, Hero calls $3.75, BTN folds
Turn: ($15) Jh (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $14, MP3 raises to $28, Hero raises to $84, MP3 calls $56
River: ($183) 5c (2 players)
MP3 bets $1.70, Hero raises to $100.70 and is all-in, MP3 calls $99
Results: $384.40 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Ks Qs (a straight, Ten to Ace) and won $381.40 ($190.95 net)
MP3 mucked 7c 9c (a straight, Seven to Jack) and lost (-$190.45 net)
Thursday, September 11, 2008
I'm winning this pot. Why? 'Cause fuck you that's why.
I had another pretty solid session last night, playing just under 4k hands for +3BI in winnings. Here the EV graph:
The hand which inspired the post title is below. The villain in the hand is a 15/13/4 reg who doesn't suck. He probably views me as a 13/10 TAG who is solid but perhaps a little nitty. I meant to 3-bet preflop but misclicked, and for some reason really didn't feel like check/folding the flop. After he check/called the turn bet, his range became skewed significantly towards AQ, KK, and AA (with some KQ and JJ mixed in as well). These hands all definitely can find a fold to a strong river bet.
Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
CO: $191.20 (95.6 bb)
BTN: $242.90 (121.5 bb)
SB: $262.30 (131.2 bb)
BB: $200 (100 bb)
UTG: $148 (74 bb)
UTG+1: $227.80 (113.9 bb)
MP1: $69.20 (34.6 bb)
MP2: $142.80 (71.4 bb)
Hero (MP3): $218.95 (109.5 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with Kd Ad
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $8, 2 folds, Hero calls $8, 4 folds
Flop: ($19) 6h Qd 3s (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $14, Hero calls $14
Turn: ($47) 2h (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $33, UTG+1 calls $33
River: ($113) 4d (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $90, UTG+1 folds
Results: $113 pot ($3 rake)
Hero mucked Kd Ad (high card Ace) and won $110 ($55 net)
The hand which inspired the post title is below. The villain in the hand is a 15/13/4 reg who doesn't suck. He probably views me as a 13/10 TAG who is solid but perhaps a little nitty. I meant to 3-bet preflop but misclicked, and for some reason really didn't feel like check/folding the flop. After he check/called the turn bet, his range became skewed significantly towards AQ, KK, and AA (with some KQ and JJ mixed in as well). These hands all definitely can find a fold to a strong river bet.
Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
CO: $191.20 (95.6 bb)
BTN: $242.90 (121.5 bb)
SB: $262.30 (131.2 bb)
BB: $200 (100 bb)
UTG: $148 (74 bb)
UTG+1: $227.80 (113.9 bb)
MP1: $69.20 (34.6 bb)
MP2: $142.80 (71.4 bb)
Hero (MP3): $218.95 (109.5 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with Kd Ad
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $8, 2 folds, Hero calls $8, 4 folds
Flop: ($19) 6h Qd 3s (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $14, Hero calls $14
Turn: ($47) 2h (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $33, UTG+1 calls $33
River: ($113) 4d (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $90, UTG+1 folds
Results: $113 pot ($3 rake)
Hero mucked Kd Ad (high card Ace) and won $110 ($55 net)
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Insert Witty Title Here
After a session of running terribly on Monday, I bounced back on Tuesday with a solid heater. Here is the EV graph of the two sessions combined:
Over those hands I was running $120 bad in all-in luck.
Want to know how to win a buyin worth of Sklansky bucks while losing two buyins of actual money? Here's how:
(Villain is a 40/3 donkey)
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
SB: $93.45 (93.5 bb)
BB: $150.70 (150.7 bb)
UTG+1: $56.60 (56.6 bb)
MP1: $185.30 (185.3 bb)
MP2: $58.80 (58.8 bb)
MP3: $125.05 (125.1 bb)
CO: $101.50 (101.5 bb)
Hero (BTN): $251.25 (251.3 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with 6d 6c
UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $1, MP2 calls $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $6, SB folds, BB raises to $18, MP1 calls $17, MP2 folds, Hero calls $12
Flop: ($55.50) 2h 6h 4d (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets $20, Hero raises to $112.50, BB folds, MP1 raises to $167.30 and is all-in, Hero calls $54.80
Turn: ($390.10)7d (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($390.10) Qh (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Results: $390.10 pot ($3 rake)
MP1 showed Jh Kh (a flush, King high) and won $387.10 ($201.80 net)
Hero mucked 6d 6c (three of a kind, Sixes) and lost (-$185.30 net)
Over those hands I was running $120 bad in all-in luck.
Want to know how to win a buyin worth of Sklansky bucks while losing two buyins of actual money? Here's how:
(Villain is a 40/3 donkey)
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
SB: $93.45 (93.5 bb)
BB: $150.70 (150.7 bb)
UTG+1: $56.60 (56.6 bb)
MP1: $185.30 (185.3 bb)
MP2: $58.80 (58.8 bb)
MP3: $125.05 (125.1 bb)
CO: $101.50 (101.5 bb)
Hero (BTN): $251.25 (251.3 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with 6d 6c
UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $1, MP2 calls $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $6, SB folds, BB raises to $18, MP1 calls $17, MP2 folds, Hero calls $12
Flop: ($55.50) 2h 6h 4d (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets $20, Hero raises to $112.50, BB folds, MP1 raises to $167.30 and is all-in, Hero calls $54.80
Turn: ($390.10)7d (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($390.10) Qh (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Results: $390.10 pot ($3 rake)
MP1 showed Jh Kh (a flush, King high) and won $387.10 ($201.80 net)
Hero mucked 6d 6c (three of a kind, Sixes) and lost (-$185.30 net)
Monday, September 8, 2008
Preflop 3-bet Sizing
Many months ago I wrote a long post about sizing preflop 3-bets, which after glancing over probably is a mix of good and bad advice. I'm going to take another shot at it today, as I think it is an area where a stakee needs improvement.
Consider a $10NL, with 100BB effective stacks. In general, we are 3-betting preflop either for value or as a bluff. Our sizes obviously need to be consistent between the two. When three betting for value, we want our raise size to be big enough to deny small pairs odds to set-mine profitably against us. This usually means our opponent should have to commit ~10% or more of their stack to call. If they are only getting 8-10:1 on a call with a small pair, calling is certainly -EV for them. That said, we don't want to make our 3-bets so huge that we lose more than we have to when bluffing.
With those points in mind, I typically size my 3-bets as follows (with 100BB effective stacks, more on this later). Against a 3x open raise, I 3-bet to 13x. Villain has to call 10BB, which makes set mining -EV. Against the more common 4x open raise, I 3-bet to 15x. Villain has to call 11BB, which again makes calling with small pairs unprofitable.
Finally, we must adjust our 3-bet sizes to the effective stacks in the hand. If our opponent and ourselves are both 150BB deep, we should 3-bet more than usual. Raising a 4x preflop raise to 18-19x in this scenario is not unreasonable. Conversely, if we are playing with 50BB effective stacks, raising a 4BB raise to 10BB is likely optimal, as our opponent calling with pairs smaller than our 3-bet range is now -EV for him due to stack sizing.
Consider a $10NL, with 100BB effective stacks. In general, we are 3-betting preflop either for value or as a bluff. Our sizes obviously need to be consistent between the two. When three betting for value, we want our raise size to be big enough to deny small pairs odds to set-mine profitably against us. This usually means our opponent should have to commit ~10% or more of their stack to call. If they are only getting 8-10:1 on a call with a small pair, calling is certainly -EV for them. That said, we don't want to make our 3-bets so huge that we lose more than we have to when bluffing.
With those points in mind, I typically size my 3-bets as follows (with 100BB effective stacks, more on this later). Against a 3x open raise, I 3-bet to 13x. Villain has to call 10BB, which makes set mining -EV. Against the more common 4x open raise, I 3-bet to 15x. Villain has to call 11BB, which again makes calling with small pairs unprofitable.
Finally, we must adjust our 3-bet sizes to the effective stacks in the hand. If our opponent and ourselves are both 150BB deep, we should 3-bet more than usual. Raising a 4x preflop raise to 18-19x in this scenario is not unreasonable. Conversely, if we are playing with 50BB effective stacks, raising a 4BB raise to 10BB is likely optimal, as our opponent calling with pairs smaller than our 3-bet range is now -EV for him due to stack sizing.
Strong Weekend
See graph:
With rakeback I shipped right around $2.5k.
I'm also going to be staking/coaching a friend starting at 10NL, so I'll be writing an article later on an area in which he needs improvement. Stay tuned.
With rakeback I shipped right around $2.5k.
I'm also going to be staking/coaching a friend starting at 10NL, so I'll be writing an article later on an area in which he needs improvement. Stay tuned.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
September Goals
My month is off to a decent start. Holiday Monday's session was poor, though it ended up marginally positive. Since then I've had +5 and +2 BI short sessions, which combined with my $1.2k milestone bonus and rakeback from the ~10k hands I've played makes for a decent chunk of change.
One thing I've noticed is that when I'm posting a solid winrate, I am playing looser and stealing more blinds. During my stretch of running terribly during late July and almost all of August, I tightended up and stole one hell of a lot less, which obviously hurt my winrate.
With that in mind, I'm only going to have two real goals for the month:
1) Play 150k+ hands.
I managed nearly 200k last month, but due to video game releases and (hopefully) not running as bad, 150k this month should be a good challenge.
2) VPIP > 13, PFR > 10, ATS > 28
I think I am definitely more profitable when I open looser from position, and these stats will reflect that I am keeping this in mind.
Unofficial 3) Make five figures of profit
Since this is partially determined by luck I'm not going to make it an official goal, but it is definitely something I've been hoping to accomplish. If I do 1) and 2) it is not entirely unreasonable.
One thing I've noticed is that when I'm posting a solid winrate, I am playing looser and stealing more blinds. During my stretch of running terribly during late July and almost all of August, I tightended up and stole one hell of a lot less, which obviously hurt my winrate.
With that in mind, I'm only going to have two real goals for the month:
1) Play 150k+ hands.
I managed nearly 200k last month, but due to video game releases and (hopefully) not running as bad, 150k this month should be a good challenge.
2) VPIP > 13, PFR > 10, ATS > 28
I think I am definitely more profitable when I open looser from position, and these stats will reflect that I am keeping this in mind.
Unofficial 3) Make five figures of profit
Since this is partially determined by luck I'm not going to make it an official goal, but it is definitely something I've been hoping to accomplish. If I do 1) and 2) it is not entirely unreasonable.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Milestones Are Good
I hit my first milestone bonus of the year yesterday, at 200k VPPs. What this effectively means is that I get a free $1200, which is a nice start to my September.
Why isn't it $2000 you ask, when that is the bonus amount? Each milestone bonus costs 50,000 FPPs, which is worth $800 when converted to cash buying the $4k boni available at Supernova. Thus, our $2000 bonus actually costs us $800, making the first milestone worth $1.2k total. I should end up clearing the 300k milestone bonus ($2.2k free money) in mid to late October, and the 400k ($3.2k free money) in early to mid December. Good times.
Why isn't it $2000 you ask, when that is the bonus amount? Each milestone bonus costs 50,000 FPPs, which is worth $800 when converted to cash buying the $4k boni available at Supernova. Thus, our $2000 bonus actually costs us $800, making the first milestone worth $1.2k total. I should end up clearing the 300k milestone bonus ($2.2k free money) in mid to late October, and the 400k ($3.2k free money) in early to mid December. Good times.
Monday, September 1, 2008
August Review - All's Well That Ends Well?
I'm not going to talk too much about my month as a whole, because I've probably bitched enough as it is. The cliffnotes are basically that I ran terribly for the first 28 days of August. Thankfully, during the last three days I went on a significant heater that, in combination with my disgusting volume (and thus, massive rakeback earnings) allowed me to set a new personal best for monthly profit.
Here is my winnings graph. Note that the spike from around hand 175k on all happened between Friday the 29th and Sunday the 31st.
Here's the PT table. The winrate sucks, and I played a ridiculous amount of hands. Yay for 24 tabling!
The bottom line:
$3279 cash winnings + $80 donkament winnings (weekly Supernova freeroll, yay) + *$4138 rakeback = $7497 total.
*73895 VPPs x 3.5 FPPs/VPP x 1.6c/FPP = $4138 rakeback
Ship the new personal best month. Here's hoping for a better September where winnings > rakeback.
Here is my winnings graph. Note that the spike from around hand 175k on all happened between Friday the 29th and Sunday the 31st.
Here's the PT table. The winrate sucks, and I played a ridiculous amount of hands. Yay for 24 tabling!
The bottom line:
$3279 cash winnings + $80 donkament winnings (weekly Supernova freeroll, yay) + *$4138 rakeback = $7497 total.
*73895 VPPs x 3.5 FPPs/VPP x 1.6c/FPP = $4138 rakeback
Ship the new personal best month. Here's hoping for a better September where winnings > rakeback.
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Finally an EV graph that doesn't suck
12 BI upswings are fun. Note that my Sklansky Buck EV along with my all-in luck and heater versus cooler hand analysis (the latter two aren't included here) were basically neutral for the session. I also flopped way less sets than I should have. I simply just had so many hands tonight against terrible donkeys who wanted to stack off extremely light. Oh, and the occasional flopped straight against a reg's set a little deepstacked is nice too.
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