January Review - Being Better (Ship Ship)

I entered 2010 with the desire to improve my work habits with respect to poker, in addition to implementing a few tweaks in my general approach to beating SSFR. After being indecisive with respect to whether or not I would pursue SNE status again this year, I still have not committed one way or another. Positively, I put in 75k VPPs worth of volume this month despite an 8 day vacation to the Bahamas for the PCA (using one of my SNE tournament packages) so while I am a little behind pace I would certainly still be in very good shape should I decide to commit to the chase.

My PCA experience was very positive. I had a great time and played what I believe to be very well in the event. The Cove Suite room upgrade at the Atlantis was wonderful, as was the waterpark, food, and sea lion experience at Dolphin Cay. I only wish the weather had been better.

I'm extremely pleased with my poker results during January. I opened the month on an extremely sexy heater, and while I did eventually cool off substantially I still most definitely ran above average. After running so poorly in much of 2009, this was a refreshing change. Another important factor is that I ran exceptionally well at 200NL, while fairly mediocre (perhaps even below average) at 100NL. It's always better to run good in the bigger games, though it would have been nice to have avoided a couple bad beats at 600NL that if dodged could have helped towards a monster month. I'm also certain that my efforts to have a better focus level and the adjustments I made to my game had a positive impact. The result of these factors is I had a personal best month in both straight table winnings and total profit!



The Bottom Line:
$15,221.90 table winnings (personal best!)
$6003.28 FPP value (75,041 VPPs x 5FPP/VPP SNE modifier! x 1.6c/FPP)
$800 stellar bonuses (new for 2010)
$140 additional FPP value through special January VIP store sale of $1.5k bonus
$150 deposit bonus
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$22,315.18 USD total profit (a new record month!). At current exchange rate this is ~$23,866 CDN.

Also of note, I played ~19% of my volume above 100NL this month. I believe this is a record for me and a positive sign. I'm certain I can still bumhunt quite a bit more aggressively at 400NL and especially 600NL, but at the very least this month was a good start in getting comfortable doing so. The extreme run good at 200NL definitely boosts the confidence, perhaps moreso than it should.

Hopefully I can carry some momentum into February. I need to focus heavily on maintaining an efficient and healthy schedule, as I've already started to slip some in this regard and I believe it was a big factor in my January success.

Four Years From Now...

... I really hope I'm not looking back on today and saying to myself "Darryl Sutter really screwed the pooch on that one".

December 2011 edit: It turns out it only took two years for me to be able to say definitively that this was a terrible trade. We'd have been better off dealing Phaneuf for nothing as at least when we'd be free of Stajan's terrible contract.

Earlier today the Calgary Flames announced the trade of Dion Phaneuf along with Freddie Sjostrom and prospect Keith Aulie to the Maple Leafs for Niklas Hagman, Matt Stajan, Ian White, and Jamaal Mayers. As I've faithfully worn my Phaneuf jersey to games for the past four years, this news was initially very upsetting to me. I've now had some time to really break down the deal, and I have a lot of different thoughts I'll list below:

(1) Phaneuf was overpaid for his production and hasn't shown a huge amount of progression since his rookie season.
(2) Phaneuf has a great deal of potential and it was thought that bringing in his former junior coach Brent Sutter would help his game. His defensive game in his own end did improve some this year.
(3) Nik Hagman is a solid and probably somewhat underrated LW who is signed for two more years. Stajan is a UFA after this year and Ian White an RFA who (also being quite underrated) will be due for a decent pay raise. Mayers is basically a 4th line bubble player at this point in his career.
(4) I would have thought we could have received better compensation for Dion. This trade does net the Flames some cap relief at the very worst.
(5) Things just don't add up. If Phaneuf was a cancer in the room or wanted out, he wouldn't have been so emotional about being dealt. If he wasn't a cancer in the room would Darryl Sutter really trade the only player he's ever hugged at the draft? Would Brent Sutter sign off on trading the guy he coached for years in Red Deer and then at the WJHC?
(6) Freddie Sjostrom has been almost a non-factor for us this year, but has been playing better when he got a chance of late. He seemed like a really nice guy and his comments at the press conference ("I wish I had played better so they'd kept me") really were heartbreaking. Giving up a quality prospect like Aulie hurts, but we do have a lot of D in the pipeline ahead of him.

Anyway, thanks for the memories Dion. I'll miss the open ice hits the most I think. This news has completely demotivated me today, so I doubt I'll get any poker in. Late tonight I'll post a monthly review that should boost my spirits a little.

Step 1: River Royal Flush

Step 2: Overshove
Step 3: ?????????
Step 4: Profit

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed)
SB ($101.80)
BB ($174.55)
UTG ($20)
UTG+1 ($20)
Hero (MP1) ($122.40)
MP2 ($143.50) 44/20 donk
CO ($21)
Button ($101.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q, K
2 folds, Hero bets $4, MP2 calls $4, 4 folds

Flop: ($9.50) 5, J, A (2 players)
Hero bets $6.50, MP2 calls $6.50

Turn: ($22.50) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks

River: ($22.50) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $111.90 (All-In), MP2 calls $111.90

Total pot: $246.30 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had Q, K (royal flush).
MP2 had 10, 10 (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: Hero won $243.30

On that note, my Thursday sessions went very well and I'm really happy with the way January has gone thus far.

You Flopped HOW MANY Sets?

On Sunday I had intended to play a solid six hours of poker, but after the heavy volume of Thursday through Saturday my will to grind had been broken. I toyed with the idea of taking the day entirely off, but eventually settled on playing a short two hour session. It was a good thing that I did play, as during my session I flopped an absolutely absurd amount of sets.

For kicks, I pulled the data from HEM and found that I saw flops with 98 pocket pairs. Statistically, one should flop a set ~11.8% of the time. I flopped 22 sets, a 22.4% rate. I guess over a reasonably small sample size flopping that many sets isn't entirely ridiculous, but I felt like I was playing in God mode (though I did have to hero fold one of my sets to a fish). I ended the session +$727. Below is my favorite hand in which I am fortunate enough to have a 44/20 retard put in 175bbs with toppest pair against my top set. I can't decide if I really think that the turn overshove is optimal, but I definitely don't think it's that bad.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed)
CO ($103.65)
Button ($179.15)
SB ($100.50)
BB ($134.20)
Hero (UTG) ($177.60)
MP ($129.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 10, 10
Hero bets $4, 2 folds, Button calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($9.50) 10, 6, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $6.50, Button raises to $13, Hero raises to $41.50, Button calls $28.50

Turn: ($92.50) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $132.10 (All-In), Button calls $132.10

River: ($356.70) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $356.70 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 10, K (one pair, tens).
Hero had 10, 10 (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: Hero won $353.70


Finally, here is the hand where I make a semi-heroic fold, which is only so considering that the villain was a 35/20 fish. I definitely think c/fing the river is correct, the second best option being shoving myself for crying calls out of two pair hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed)
BB ($128.75)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($100)
Hero (MP1) ($100)
MP2 ($149.90)
CO ($100)
Button ($98.50)
SB ($96)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q, Q
2 folds, Hero bets $4, MP2 calls $4, 3 folds, BB calls $3

Flop: ($12.50) 7, Q, 10 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $9.50, MP2 calls $9.50, 1 fold

Turn: ($31.50) J (2 players)
Hero bets $21.50, MP2 calls $21.50

River: ($74.50) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $111, Hero folds

Total pot: $74.50 | Rake: $3

Results:
MP2 didn't show
Outcome: MP2 won $71.50

Multi-Currency Bumhunting

Late last year, Pokerstars launched the beta test of their multi currency support, adding Euro tables. I immediately converted a small portion of my roll into Euros just in case I wanted to sit at some of the tables (which currently start at E200NL and go up from there, E100NL tables and lower will be added eventually). However, it took until today that I actually played hands at a Euro table. I noticed that an extreme megadonk whom was running like 91/50 with a 41% 3bet had sat at said table shortly after being stacked by me at a regular $100NL table. I then went on to win a E500 pot (roughly $750 USD), which was very nice. Unfortunately, my HEM hadn't been updated in a few months and didn't support multiple currencies, so it was imported as if the hand had taken place at a USD table. Anyway, here are the hands - the Euro table offering in raw text format because the FTR convertor doesn't support Euro tables!

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed)
CO ($17.85)
Button ($22.30)
SB ($39)
BB ($100)
UTG ($117.15)
Hero (UTG+1) ($100)
MP1 ($52.95)
MP2 ($79)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, K
1 fold, Hero bets $5.50, 1 fold, MP2 raises to $10, 4 folds, Hero raises to $100 (All-In), MP2 calls $69 (All-In)

Flop: ($159.50) K, 7, 5 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: ($159.50) Q (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($159.50) 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $159.50 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had A, K (one pair, Kings).
MP2 had Q, J (one pair, Queens).
Outcome: Hero won $158


PokerStars Game #38564890267: Hold'em No Limit (E1/E2 EUR) - 2010/01/22 14:23:25 MT [2010/01/22 16:23:25 ET]
Table 'Chicago VII' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 2: Ronfar3 (E200 in chips)
Seat 3: vinivici9586 (E372 in chips)
Seat 4: bigd10125 (E205.20 in chips)
Seat 5: saf241271 (E341.95 in chips)
Seat 6: Tnx4urMoney (E200 in chips)
Seat 7: lacourneuve (E230 in chips)
Seat 8: Eric Osborn (E97 in chips)
Seat 9: moelmer (E405 in chips)
Tnx4urMoney: posts small blind E1
lacourneuve: posts big blind E2
prot0: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ronfar3 [9d 9c]
Eric Osborn: raises E2 to E4
moelmer: folds
Ronfar3: calls E4
vinivici9586: folds
bigd10125: folds
saf241271: calls E4
Tnx4urMoney: folds
lacourneuve: calls E2
*** FLOP *** [9h 4h Qh]
lacourneuve: checks
Eric Osborn: checks
Ronfar3: checks
saf241271: bets E10
lacourneuve: folds
Eric Osborn: calls E10
Ronfar3: raises E54 to E64
saf241271: calls E54
Eric Osborn: raises E29 to E93 and is all-in
Ronfar3: calls E29
saf241271: calls E29
*** TURN *** [9h 4h Qh] [7s]
Ronfar3: bets E103 and is all-in
saf241271: calls E103
*** RIVER *** [9h 4h Qh 7s] [8c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Ronfar3: shows [9d 9c] (three of a kind, Nines)
saf241271: shows [Qc 3c] (a pair of Queens)
Ronfar3 collected E206 from side pot
Eric Osborn: shows [Js Ah] (high card Ace)
Ronfar3 collected E294 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot E502 Main pot E294. Side pot E206. | Rake E2
Board [9h 4h Qh 7s 8c]
Seat 2: Ronfar3 showed [9d 9c] and won (E500) with three of a kind, Nines
Seat 3: vinivici9586 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: bigd10125 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: saf241271 (button) showed [Qc 3c] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 6: Tnx4urMoney (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: lacourneuve (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 8: Eric Osborn showed [Js Ah] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 9: moelmer folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Note that someone posted both a SB and BB in the first hand (hence my $5.50 open size), and that I was certain the megadonk would bet ATC on the flop when checked to in the second hand. Anyway, my weekend has been fairly productive in terms of poker thus far. Hopefully it continues tomorrow.

LOL

Let me start by saying the way the Flames have been playing lately (along with how the Pats played on Wildcard Weekend) is downright depressing. With that out of the way, I finally got around to watching Tucker Max's movie "I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell" two days ago. You could tell it was an independent film, and as I expected there was a fair bit of lame "shock value" humour. However, there was a good amount of legitimate smart funny, even more than I expected. I'd recommend it.

While out shopping today I preordered three games: the Lunar 1 remake for the PSP, FF13 for the PS3 (can't wait), and Star Ocean 4 International for the PS3 (a port of the director's cut version of the XBox 360 game). Looking forward to all three titles. The PSP Persona 3 remake was also announced for a US release yesterday, which is awesome.

With regards to the blog title, sometimes hands against people I view as "decent" regulars make me laugh. Here's one such offering from today:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed)
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($104.05)
Button ($99.45)
Hero (SB) ($103.60)
BB ($100)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5, A
4 folds, Hero bets $3, BB calls $2

Flop: ($6) 6, J, 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $4, BB calls $4

Villain decides to float the flop with no pair no draw. Not a great idea, but could be worse.

Turn: ($14) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $9, Hero raises to $35, BB calls $26

Villain bets his no pair no draw after floating and being checked to on the turn. Completely standard - until he gets raised and... calls!?!?

River: ($84) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $58 (All-In), Hero calls $58

I love my turn c/r, but wasn't entirely certain what to do here on the river. I settled on bluffcatching which obviously worked out, but you could probably make an argument for shoving. I don't think c/f is an option as his calling range on the turn has a ton of draws which bricked.

Total pot: $200 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had 5, A (one pair, Aces).
BB had 10, Q (high card, Ace).
Outcome: Hero won $197