Bad Metrics

Since the start of my successful SNE pursuit in 2009, and probably dating back into mid-2008, I've used VPP count as pretty much my only metric for "effort" at the tables. I really don't have a very large gap between playing my best and my worst relative to other people (this isn't necessarily a good thing), so I rarely feel like I have played particularly well or particularly poorly on any given day. Thus, what remains to feel good about is how much work got done, and VPP count was an inaccurate but seemingly meaningful way to measure that because they were worth something.

With the changes to the VIP system introduced this year combined with the state of SSFR, VPPs suck. I'm getting around half the VPPs per hour I was in 2009, probably even slightly less. Obviously, the VIP changes are costing me money. In total, I'll likely be out around 15-20k on the year compared to what I would have earned had 2011 VIP policy remained. What bugs me though isn't the money, but because VPP generation was a metric I've used for so long, it almost never feels like I'm putting in a respectable effort according to that VPP number, even when it feels like I'm working hard.

Obviously, I need a better metric. It isn't that I haven't adjusted by cutting tables and relying much more heavily on pure table winnings for profit - I have, and that started in 2011. But as a short term metric, profit is an even worse choice than VPP count for the obvious results orientated reasoning. All that leaves me with is hours, which is what I probably should have been using in the first place - but hours don't get turned into bonuses worth several thousand dollars, which causes a notable lack of appeal.

Anyway, I finished up a play through of another classic SNES RPG last week, that being Lufia 2: Rise of the Sinistrals. It was as great as I remembered it, and isn't far off from the holy trinity of Square SNES RPGs in quality.



In fact, the experience was so much fun I've spent some time the last three days messing around in C# throwing together some bits of an RPG engine for the XNA (XBox/Windows Phone) framework. I'm actually really thrilled with my progress so far - maybe it just feels good to write code again - but who knows, perhaps I'll release an indie retro RPG for PC/XBox in a couple years.

Excuses

I had a lot of excuses for failing to put in my typical Friday volume. The first was that I needed to install a new motherboard into my girlfriend's computer, which had its old board blow up on Wednesday. Additionally, it was NHL draft day (the first round, anyway) and I was excited to see who the Flames would take at 14. More on this later in the post. Finally, when I finally did get down to business the games were utterly terrible for a Friday. They picked up immensely for about a two hour window, when all of a sudden a bunch of juicy 200NL, 400NL, and 600NL tables started up almost simultaneously. Unfortunately, after that burst of action the games returned to "I can't believe the games are this bad on a weekend" status.

The good news is, I made the most of the two hours of amazing midstakes games. It's been some time since I've had a day like today where 600NL profits carry the show.

The biggest pot at 600NL is below. The donkey in the hand was running 45/20 or so but in general just didn't like folding at all, though even given all that I was fairly surprised at his holding. He ended up leaving the table with a 3.2k stack, and put some really brutal beats on other regs.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (9 handed)
MP2 ($814.11)
Hero (MP3) ($606.86)
CO ($1252.09)
Button ($256.65)
SB ($2701.07)
BB ($240)
UTG ($859.98)
UTG+1 ($213)
MP1 ($465)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K♦, A♦
UTG bets $15, UTG+1 calls $15, 2 folds, Hero raises to $72, 2 folds, SB calls $69, 3 folds

Flop: ($180) 9♦, 2♠, 7♦ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $120, SB calls $120

Turn: ($420) Q♦ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $138, SB calls $138

River: ($696) J♥ (2 players)
SB bets $240, Hero raises to $276.86 (All-In), SB calls $36.86

Total pot: $1249.72 | Rake: $2.80

Results:
SB had 10♣, 7♥ (one pair, sevens).
Hero had K♦, A♦ (flush, Ace high).
Outcome: Hero won $1246.92

I did win another pot of ~$1k with KK against a fish with JJ. In all, six hours well spent for a little over $2k profit but not nearly as many VPPs as I had hoped for today.

As for the NHL draft, it took almost two hours of TV time to reach the Flames at the 14th pick - which they then traded to the Sabres for the 21st pick and their second rounder in this year's draft. That meant another half hour of staying in front of the TV, but when the moment came Feaster and company did not disappoint from an entertaining standpoint, shocking everyone by going completely "off the board" and selecting Mark Jankowski. While the kid definitely has a lot of offensive upside, he's yet to play legit major-junior hockey. It may end up being a home run move, but at best it's an exceptionally high risk proposition. I guess we'll see how things have panned out in three to four years.

It's Good To Be Deep (With Quads/Top Set)

I mentioned earlier that a fair chunk of the "regulars" playing 100NL FR ZOOM are simply not very good compared to those who frequent the regular games of said stakes. Even better, due to the nature of ZOOM it is common to frequently become deep stacked with these players as well as the full blown fish. HHs with pot sizes of 580bbs and 360bbs below illustrate what I mean. In the former hand the opener was something like 15/2 over a decent sample which is why I chose not to 3b preflop. I probably should have backraise 4b/folded against the original 3bettor, as he was somewhat fishy with a ~3% 3b over ~400 hands. It turned out flatting worked great, but I still think it is a mistake.

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)
Button ($116.16)
SB ($50)
BB ($224.41)
UTG ($261.02)
UTG+1 ($101.50)
MP1 ($96.21)
Hero (MP2) ($358.50)
MP3 ($412.73)
CO ($187.74)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K♣, K♥
UTG bets $2, 2 folds, Hero calls $2, MP3 raises to $10, 2 folds, SB calls $9.50, 1 fold, UTG calls $8, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($41) K♦, 9♦, 10♥ (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $34, 1 fold, SB raises to $40 (All-In), UTG raises to $251.02 (All-In), Hero calls $217.02

Turn: ($583.04) 8♦ (3 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($583.04) 3♥ (3 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $583.04 | Rake: $2.80

Results:
SB had 9♠, 9♣ (three of a kind, nines).
UTG had K♠, A♦ (one pair, Kings).
Hero had K♣, K♥ (three of a kind, Kings).
Outcome: Hero won $580.24

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)
Button ($86.03)
SB ($310.17)
BB ($100)
UTG ($107.23)
UTG+1 ($33)
Hero (MP1) ($253.62)
MP2 ($178.87)
MP3 ($86.26)
CO ($115.90)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 6♥, 6♠
2 folds, Hero bets $3, MP2 calls $3, 4 folds, BB calls $2

Flop: ($9.50) 8♦, 6♣, Q♣ (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7.25, MP2 calls $7.25, 1 fold

Turn: ($24) 6♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $18, MP2 calls $18

River: ($60) Q♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $225.37 (All-In), MP2 calls $150.62 (All-In)

Total pot: $361.24 | Rake: $2.80

Results:
Hero had 6♥, 6♠ (four of a kind, sixes).
MP2 had J♦, Q♦ (full house, Queens over sixes).
Outcome: Hero won $358.44

... and as an addendum, a hand I played at ZOOM an hour after I posted the above. The villain is running 14/12/4 over a large sample and I have him tagged as one of the "special" ZOOM regs. I could get used to having +14 BI days at ZOOM.

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)
Button ($257.77)
SB ($124.66)
BB ($39.57)
Hero (UTG) ($213.99)
UTG+1 ($60.30)
MP1 ($277.25)
MP2 ($100)
MP3 ($103.80)
CO ($38.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 10♠, 10♣
Hero bets $3, 5 folds, Button raises to $8, 2 folds, Hero calls $5

Flop: ($17.50) 4♣, Q♥, 10♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $7, Hero raises to $22, Button calls $15

Turn: ($61.50) 7♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $60, Button calls $60

River: ($181.50) 9♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $123.99 (All-In), Button calls $123.99

Total pot: $429.48 | Rake: $2.80

Results:
Button had Q♣, A♥ (one pair, Queens).
Hero had 10♠, 10♣ (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: Hero won $426.68

The State of SSFR on Pokerstars

I promised in my last post that I'd give my thoughts on how the full ring environment has evolved (maybe not the best word) over the last few years.

During 2008 and 2009, it was near trivial to be able to find 24 reasonably good tables at 100NL FR, and close to as many at 200NL and above. Since then the games have gotten tougher, Black Friday happened eliminating the US market, several other countries have segregated their players pools (France, Spain, etc), and Pokerstars introduced ZOOM Poker.

This combination of factors has shrunk the recreational player pool significantly, and thus made game selection far more of an art than it was previously. The good news is, it is still possible to make a good living playing nothing but full ring poker. To do so however, I feel that mixing stakes as well as regular and ZOOM games is very close to necessary. Surprisingly enough, the ZOOM pool at 100NL FR is actually quite soft at times, mostly because around half the "regular" players are not from the normal cash games, but instead must be coming from SNGs/MTTs or elsewhere, and in general these players have very little idea what they're doing, though unfortunately they'll probably improve over time, or stop playing cash when they figure out they are losing players.

One night in fact, the ZOOM player pool at 100NL FR was looking so amazingly soft I snapped a screenshot. The different shades of blue are players I have tagged as different degrees of fish. Yellow, red, and green are regulars. Keep in mind this was a rarity, and at times the pool is equally terrible.



People have been saying that full ring poker has been dying since I began this blog in 2008. While it may in fact be on the way out, its death has been so slow that I'm not worried. A dedicated player who keeps getting a little better every year can still crush, and while it may be a lot more difficult to put in volume than it used to, the changes to the Pokerstars VIP system have made it very clear that volume isn't the way to go anymore if you like money.

Because It's the Cup

Congratulations to the Los Angeles Kings, and Darryl Sutter in particular on winning the Stanley Cup. Due to the Sutter connection and the fact that they faced (and subsequently eliminated) the Canucks in the first round, I had been pulling for them since the playoffs began.

As a Flames fan the win is bittersweet, though on the sweeter end of the spectrum. Sutter took us to the Cup Finals in 2004, losing in 7 games. Although during his stint as coach/GM in Calgary he managed to resurrect the franchise, partially through the acquisition of Miikka Kiprusoff, he was responsible for several huge blunders in his later years which will haunt the team for years to come (see: Phaneuf deal, Stajan contract, Jokinen situation with NYR, etc).



He was definitely a better coach than GM, but regardless its awesome to see him hoist the cup.

I preordered two PSP games today - the system just won't die. The first of which was Gungnir, a tactical RPG in a series of handheld games which I've yet to try. I also put down coin for the Growlanser remake that is due out in July.



I've been meaning to post some thoughts on the state of the Full Ring games on Pokerstars, as well as ZOOM and how it has changed things. I know that kind of stuff will be a lot more interesting to the majority of this blog's readership, so stay tuned.

Typical

The games have been pretty lousy lately, but they had their moments today as there were a couple whales here and there. It didn't matter much though, as I had one of my standard 12BI below AIEV sessions, with a much worse gap in Sklansky bucks mostly due to hand #2 below. Anyway, three of the more memorable beats follow.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed)
Hero (MP2) ($325.04)
MP3 ($158)
CO ($491.11)
Button ($200.28)
SB ($498.11)
BB ($954.18)
UTG ($426.22)
UTG+1 ($200)
MP1 ($218.72)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K♣, K♦
UTG bets $8, 1 fold, MP1 calls $8, Hero raises to $32, 5 folds, UTG calls $24, 1 fold

Flop: ($75) 3♣, 2♣, 3♦ (2 players)
UTG bets $54.15, Hero raises to $116, UTG raises to $394.22 (All-In), Hero calls $177.04 (All-In)

Turn: ($661.08) 5♦ (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($661.08) 7♦ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $661.08 | Rake: $2.80

Results:
UTG had 6♦, A♦ (flush, Ace high).
Hero had K♣, K♦ (two pair, Kings and threes).
Outcome: UTG won $658.28



PokerStars Pot-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB
SB ($455.24)
Hero (BB) ($295.20)
UTG ($278.70)
Button ($200)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q♥, Q♣
1 fold, Button bets $6, SB raises to $10, Hero raises to $36, 1 fold, SB raises to $62, Hero raises to $192, SB calls $130

Flop: ($390) 2♦, 4♠, J♦ (2 players)
SB bets $108, Hero calls $103.20 (All-In)

Turn: ($596.40) 8♣ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($596.40) 9♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $596.40 | Rake: $1.50

Results:
SB had J♠, J♣ (three of a kind, Jacks).
Hero had Q♥, Q♣ (one pair, Queens).
Outcome: SB won $594.90



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed)
MP3 ($377.20)
CO ($84.54)
Button ($444.42)
SB ($210.78)
Hero (BB) ($325.87)
UTG ($287.24)
UTG+1 ($200)
MP1 ($251.63)
MP2 ($200)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A♠, A♦
5 folds, CO calls $2, 2 folds, Hero bets $38, CO raises to $74, Hero raises to $110, CO calls $10.54 (All-In)

Flop: ($170.08) 3♦, 7♥, 5♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($170.08) 6♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($170.08) 9♣ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $170.08 | Rake: $2.80

Results:
Hero had A♠, A♦ (one pair, Aces).
CO had 8♦, A♣ (straight, nine high).
Outcome: CO won $167.28

Since I hadn't posted in a while I figured I might as bust out a whine post. There really hasn't been a whole lot happening lately, aside from the Flames hiring Bob Hartley as thier new bench boss. My gut feeling toward him was originally negative, but after some research I'm filled with caution optimism.

May Review - Half and Half

As I spent half the month either in Hawaii or taking a little time off getting ready for the trip, May was a near even split between vacation and work. I ran pretty well during my first 40k or so hands of the month, but absolutely terrible for the latter 20k, resulting in what is probably my worst downer of the year so far, though I could be mistaken.

Though I managed a 3ptBB/100 winrate which falls into the "crushing" category, I ran terrible at 200NL and above while good at 100NL, which is a reciple for disappointment.

The bottom line:
$4781.55 table winnings
+$841.46 FPP value
+$185 coaching
--------------------------
$5808.01 USD total profit.

All in all, the month ended up being another very average (or perhaps a little below average) showing. I really haven't had a stretch of significant rungood since the end of 2011. Maybe it's coming, maybe it isn't. Regardless, I hope to get my grind on some in June and hopefully the five weekends do me some good.