2009 Review - Mission Accomplished

After starting to take online poker seriously in February of 2008 and grinding an initial $500 deposit into just under $80k during the remainder of the year, I made the decision to play professionally and chase Supernova Elite status in 2009.

I succeeded in my major 2009 goal of becoming a Supernova Elite, obtaining the status on December 3rd. The effort required was quite close to what I expected, though thanks to a Pokerstars WSOP promotion in July I managed to "invest" $9000 into 90% of a WSOP ME buy in (I sold the remaining 10% action of the $10k buy in) in order to be credited with an instant 100,000 VPPs, 10% of the necessary amount to achieve Supernova Elite. Thus, from the middle of July onward I began to play less volume monthly, though still a very high amount compared to most. Unfortunately, I busted fairly early on in the WSOP ME due to a very standard cooler hand (KK < AA).

While only having to truly grind out 900k VPPs on the year was nice and very likely prevented a great deal of burn out, it also meant less profit as both the winnings and FPP value I would have generated over what would have been an additional ~285k hands did not happen. In addition, the 100k VPPs cost me the $9k WSOP ME buy in. I certainly don't regret the choice to play the WSOP ME (and I'm confident that I was +EV in the event). From a purely results oriented perspective however, when you combine the opportunity cost (lowball estimate: ~$16k) with the direct $9k buy in cost I ended up sacrificing around $25k cash for 190 hours less grind (basically, a little over a month off). Of course you should never be results oriented when analyzing anything to do with poker, so provided I was at the very least neutral EV in the ME it is only fair to compare the opportunity cost alone with the time off benefits. Regardless, I'd do it all the same again in a heartbeat.

Enough rambling, where are the results? I'll start with a pure table winnings graph:


Here's a monthly profit breakdown:
January: $13,029.30
Febuary: $7,812.12
March: $17,465.79
April: $17,501.58
May: $18,943.89
June: $21,942.20
July: $14,371.73
August: $12,910.21
September: $15,697.45
October: $16,343.63
November: $11,696.77
December: $996.02

Finally, the bottom line:
$93,464.65 winnings
+$50,400 FPP value from 900k VPPs @ Supernova (3.5 FPPs/VPP, 1.6c/FPP)
+$203.60 FPP value from 2,545 VPPs @ SNE (5 FPPs/VPP, 1.6c/FPP)
+$23,200 milestone value
+$1,462.44 staking, deposit bonuses, etc.
-$9,000 WSOP ME action
------------------------------------------------
$159,730.69 USD cash profit + 2 SNE tournament packages (PCA and EPT Monte Carlo) + 2010 WCOOP ME entry + 5x FPP modifier next year as long as I keep SNE status (which will be through the end of September at minimum).

Overall I'm happy with how the year went. I successfully pulled off the major challenge I set for myself. Obtaining SNE did come at the cost of neglecting to spend significant amounts of time working on my game and taking shots at midstakes. That said, I made good money and soon get the reap one of the rewards of my commitment by spending 8 days at the Atlantis resort in the Bahamas (in an upgraded Cove suite, too) for the PCA and then returning to grind with a 5x FPP multiplier. It sure would be nice to start off 2010 with a major live donkament score!


... and no, I still haven't decided if I'm going to chase SNE again in 2010 or have a slack 600k VPP year.

December Review - A Well Deserved Break

After reaching SNE in very early December, I took the rest of the month off from poker aside from donking around playing a tiny bit of HU and microstakes PLO. It's not really worthwhile posting a monthly graph/summary, but I'll do so anyway because I'm a completionist and don't want a gap in my monthly reviews!



The bottom line:
$650.90 winnings
$345.12 FPP value ((2527 VPPs @ Supernova = 8845 FPPs) + (2545 VPPs @ SNE = 12725 FPPs) = 21570 FPPs x 1.6c/FPP)
-------------------------
$996.02 USD profit.

My lowest profit month since my first month ever playing online poker! I guess I can't complain given it was all vacation time. The break felt really good, and in a way it extends a bit into early January as I'll be at the Pokerstars Carribean Adventure in the Bahamas from Jan 4th to 12th.

I'll be posting a yearly review shortly, though I might have a hard time making it terribly interesting as my year was so focused on achieving a single goal. Happy holidays!

Choices

It's December 23rd, and as promised Pokerstars announced the changes to its VIP program for 2010. While there are significant changes (lots of value added for low volume players, milestone values shifted to increase the rakeback of those earning 200k-500k VPPs/year), very little is going to change for me personally. As expected, full ring games are being changed to a 6x VPP system, which while not nearly as bad as what was originally proposed will still result in a rather small decrease in the VPPs/hand earned at the limits I play (primarily 100NL and 200NL FR). On a positive note the addition of the low volume "stellar rewards" and a tiny bit of added milestone cash results in an extra $1.2k in yearly bonus value for someone reaching SNE compared to 2009.

So the question becomes, what am I planning on doing in 2010? I posted in a 2p2 thread a couple weeks ago that I was intending on slacking off a bit next year and earning 600k VPPs, while maintaining SNE status through the end of September 2010 by putting in the required 50k VPPs/month. This made a lot of sense under the previous system because the milestone bonuses were structured such that if you weren't planning on going all the way to SNE, 600k was the sweet spot to stop to maximize your rakeback percentage on the year. Under the new system, this is no longer the case - although interestingly enough reaching 600k VPPs in the new system I would actually earn $400 more in bonus value than with the old system.

If I did go ahead with this plan, I'd expect to have a lot of free time (especially relative to 2009). I could use this time to work on broadening my poker horizons, as well taking on some non-poker related endeavors. I'd earn an estimated ~$135k from the base 600k VPP grind - but as I'd hopefully be improving and learning different styles/games (playing HU, 6max, PLO), I could potentially turn a nice additional profit from the learning and finish over $150k profits for the year. The extra time off would certainly be nice, as I'd only be putting around 100 hours of true grind per month.

The other option I'm considering is pursuing SNE again in 2010. During my 2009 SNE chase, 10% of the grind was mitigated by the WSOP ME promo which rewarded 100k VPPs. This promo increased my time off significantly and took a lot of pressure off the end of the grind, at the cost of not being forced to earn the winnings/FPP value I would have made grinding out that 100k VPPs. It has been suggested by Stars that this promotion will not be repeated in 2010. Thus, to achieve SNE again I would have to earn 100k more VPPs from grinding than I did in 2009, though it is quite likely some other promotions will be launched to help with this. Assuming no promotional help, I estimate I'd earn around $200k in pure winnings/FPP value/milestones during 2010 going down this path, in addition to the ~$40k in tournament packages I'd once again receive. Add to this having the 5x FPP modifier heading into 2011 and it's a lot of financial benefit, though requiring a very high level of effort: around 167 hours of grinding per month.

So, those are the options I've given myself. I haven't decided which one it's going to be yet, but here are some points that have crossed my mind lately:

• I'm at a place in my life (25 years old, bought a house last year, no kids, etc.) where I have a lot of freedom and with good money management maximizing my income now could result in exponential gains a long ways down the road.


• Last year's SNE grind was a lot of work, and I only had to do 900k VPPs thanks to the WSOP promo. I know I'm capable of doing the full 1 million, but playing that kind of volume for such a long time can be soul shattering during the periods you run bad.


• Playing a lower volume and trying to pick up additional income on the side from different forms of poker would make the game far more enjoyable and provide more of an intellectual challenge.


• My girlfriend loves to travel, and earning the two tournament packages again for 2011 would be really nice. I guess I'll have better insight on how significant this is once I get back from the PCA in a few weeks. Too bad I'll be making a decision before then, though I suppose changing my mind in early January wouldn't hurt.


• There may come a time when earning the kind of money that is currently achievable playing a high volume of small stakes games (and thus having fairly low variance in one's yearly earnings) is no longer possible. Taking maximum advantage for future benefit might be a really good thing. On the other hand, perhaps another poker boom is right around the corner and significantly better results will be attainable in year or two for an SSFR grinder...

Supernova Elite

It took a very solid effort, but on December 3rd I achieved my goal of reaching Supernova Elite for the year. For the uninitiated, this means I earned 1 Million VPPs over the last 11 months and 3 days. Because I started as a Supernova VIP from last year, I generated 3.5 million FPPs, worth $56k USD when used to purchase $4k bonuses for 250k FPPs/each. In addition, along the way I picked up $23.2k in milestone bonuses. However, these earnings have been well documented in my monthly reviews.

So what do I get for achieving that magical 1 millionth VPP? First, my choice of two tournament packages or $10k USD and one package. I will be choosing the PCA (Pokerstars Carribean Adventure) package which includes the $10k USD buyin to the PCA main-event, along with 10 days accommodation at the Atlantis resort in the Bahamas (Jan 4th to 12th), $1k USD for expenses, and $1k food credit at the hotel. The total value of this package sits a little over ~$14k USD.

My second package will be the EPT Monte Carlo selection, which is by far the most valuable one available. This is mostly due to how expensive everything is in Monte Carlo, but the package is valued around ~$19k USD and includes a buy in to the EPT finale main-event. Additionally, I will be bought into the main-even of the WCOOP (World Championship of Online Poker), a $5400 value.

Finally, my FPP multiplier will change to 5x for as long as I maintain the status, which will likely be until the end of September 2010. To break down the significance of this increase, as a Supernova VIP with a 3.5 multiplier playing around ~1500 hands/hour (earnings ~500 VPPs/h) I would earn roughly 1,750 FPPs which is ~$28/h in pure FPP value. Increasing this to a 5x multiplier and thus 2,500 FPPs/hour the hourly jumps to $40/h in FPP value alone. Not too shabby.

All in all, the endeavor was definitely worthwhile and I am looking forward to reaping the benefits while taking the rest of the month off poker. This doesn't mean you won't see me on the weekends testing out the 5x multiplier and separating some fish from their money, but I certainly won't be playing anything near the volume I've been used to.

Good game 2009.