A Dime A Day (Running Good!)

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	259,001
SNE Pace:	45,281 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Super Mario RPG (Wii Virtual Console)

In my last post I talked about sustaining some momentum after big sessions on Saturday and Tuesday. As of the end of my Thursday session, I've cleared $1k USD (not including rakeback) off the tables in each of the last three calendar days. Here is a graph from Tuesday through Thursday:

As you can see, I ended up running quite favorably in terms of all-in EV.

If the next week and a half goes decently, March could be a record breaking month!

Momentum

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	253,445
SNE Pace:	45,205 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Super Mario RPG (Wii Virtual Console)

It seems all it took to get me feeling really good about poker again was three good sessions over a four day period. Sunday unfortunately was the anomaly in which I ran terribly and broke even (technically made a profit with rakeback, but I digress).

Tuesday was perhaps the most impressive of the three sessions, as it was a weekday and I managed to hammer out 9k hands at 7ptBB/100. Here is the sexy graph:

Notice that I started the day running poorly in all-in EV, but ended up being a little above expectancy in that category come the end. The nastiness right at the start of the day was caused by my KK losing to QQ AIPF. If I can sustain this momentum, I have hopes that March will be a record setting month. Fingers crossed!

The Quarter Mark

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	250,221
SNE Pace:	44,721 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Super Mario RPG (Wii Virtual Console)

On Monday I reached the 25% mark of my journey to Supernova Elite. It ended up being a solid day of poker, 8.5k hands at 2.65ptBB/100. The game quality at 100NL was as good as I've seen it on a Monday in some time. Whatever Pokerstars is doing to keep the fish coming in, it is working.

I don't want to count my chickens before they hatch, but my pace towards Supernova Elite has been exactly what I'd hoped it would be when I set out this year. I'm not feeling any sort of burnout, despite almost never taking any days fully off - I believe there have only been 3 days where I have played 0 hands in 2009.

Long Overdue

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	244,945
SNE Pace:	44,925 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Super Mario RPG (Wii Virtual Console)

It's been a long time since I've been truly psyched about the results of a day of poker. Thankfully, that trend ended today. Despite running a tiny bit below all-in EV, and it still feeling like I took more than my share of nasty suckouts, I picked up a little over $1.2k in winnings alone. Combine my rakeback and the USD to CDN conversion, and I should have cleared right around $2k CDN profit on Saturday. Here's the graph:


Also of note, I finished Valkyria Chronicles yesterday. It was a very solid game, and I understand why it was reviewed so well. That said, despite being well polished and being presented in a very unique way, it never quite felt like my kind of game. I did enjoy it thoroughly, but not quite as much as I expected. Currently I'm doing a little retro gaming, playing through Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars on the Wii virtual console. Hopefully it's as much fun as I remember. I'm also trying to decide what new game I'll play through next - open to suggestions of course.

Milestone #1

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	222,909
SNE Pace:	39,329 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Valkyria Chronicles (PS3)

A few days into the month I hit the first milestone bonus of this year. Milestones are special cash bonuses for Pokerstars' very high volume players, and break down as follows:
$2,000 at 200,000 VPP
$3,000 at 300,000 VPP
$4,000 at 400,000 VPP
$5,000 at 500,000 VPP
$6,000 at 600,000 VPP
$8,000 at 800,000 VPP

However, each bonus costs 50k FPPs to purchase. As 50k FPPs is 1/5th a $4000 bonus, you can subtract $800 from each milestone number to obtain the true "free money" value of the bonus.

Thus, as I recently crossed the 200k VPP barrier, I picked up a free $1200 from Pokerstars. If I remain very diligent this month, I may actually cross the 300k mark during the last day or two, which would mean two milestones for March.

Poker overall has continued to be disappointing up until today. Just about every day in March, I have run below all-in expectation, usually to the tune of several buyins. Today started out as no exception, but during my last session of the day, my winnings caught up to my all-in EV! Graph is below, the thin line is all-in EV:


A few more days like this and maybe I'll be able to temporarily stop complaining.

Live Poker Is Hilarious

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	196,507
SNE Pace:	32107 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Valkyria Chronicles (PS3)

Today was a special day in that it marked my first trip to the casino to play live $1/$2 NL in quite a long time. If it is even possible, live poker is softer than I remember it. My good friend Will and I sat down at a table at the Grey Eagle for a little under 4 hours. Every single player that played with us during that stretch was a fish. Even the better players (whom the dealers indicated were regulars) were terrible. The hands I was involved with were pretty standard, and I ended up +$224 CDN on the session.

Will's night was much more interesting however. We were getting ready to head out, with his stack sitting at around $550 total (similar to mine at the time, we both bought in 150BB deep), playing what was going to be one of our last couple hands. A lady who was unsurprisingly very bad (and a bit of a bitch) straddled, and got a few callers. She had a large stack, a little over 250BB ($500) deep. Will raised it up in MP with 88 to $20 (which after a caller or two would be a small raise for live poker, lol). Lady who straddled reraised to $50, Will called and they took a flop. Flop came 679, two diamonds, and lady checked. Will bet nearly the full pot, $100, and got check-raised all-in by lady with her AA. At this point he's basically priced in to draw to his ten outs (lady had Ad, so the flop equity is actually 63% to 37%). He needed to call ~$350 to win ~$750 in the pot, so with 37% equity this is a +EV call. Obviously, if her three betting range from the straddle is only big pairs, then the play up until the final flop decision is very much -EV, but the decision to call at the final point is a correct one.

Thankfully, Will ended up spiking a ten on the river, and ended the night +~$850 CDN. Not too shabby when a couple online grinders walk into a live game for a few hours and take it for over $1k between the two of them.

After the live poker adventure and some all you can eat sushi followed by new cartoons I did manage to get a quick online session in. Despite only playing a short 4000 hands, I'm excited that March is off to a solid start as my winrate is at 5.5ptBB/100! I'll settle for 2ptBB/100 on the month as a whole.

You may have also noticed that my "currently playing" section in the status update changed from Persona 4 to Valkyria Chronicles. I finished Persona 4, which while not as ridiculously long as its stellar predecessor, still took me a solid 65 hours. It was a very good game, but most definitely not in the same league as Persona 3. I did enjoy Persona 4's murder mystery theme, but it unfortunately lead to a rather anti-climactic end boss/ending. I've since picked up Valkyria chronicles, which won RPGRamer's Game of the Year Award for 2008, and I can already tell why. Not only is it innovative in several areas, it possesses a level of polish that is rarely found in games these days. Hopefully I'll find lots of time to play it over the next couple weeks.

February Review - FPP Pro

In late July and through most of August last year, I hit some nasty variance. However, I don't think it was ever as bad as what I experienced this month. The title is actually a little misleading, as I still exceeded FPP Pro earnings.

For those asking "what is an FPP pro?", it is defined as a Pokerstars regular who is not able to beat the games + rake, but with rakeback through FPP manages to turn a profit. Surprisingly (or not, if you see them play every day), half or more of the regulars at my limit fall into this category, and more of them play similar volume to myself.

Moving on, despite utterly ridiculous variance this month, here are winnings totals:


The bottom line:
$2591.75 winnings
+$150 deposit bonus
+$30 lolfreerollaments (cashed in a VIP freeroll)
+$5041.12 rakeback (90020 VPPs)
-------------------------
$7812.12 USD, ~$9500 CDN

As you can see, my completely pathetic winnings were barely half my rakeback total. I could whine on and on, but I'll leave you with one hand that summarizes my month nicely:

Villain in this hand is a 40/10 superdonk with no fold button. Notice stack sizes - this is a 100NL table, not 400NL.

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players

MP2: $100 (100 bb)
MP3: $112.55 (112.6 bb)
CO: $103.40 (103.4 bb)
Hero (BTN): $359.80 (359.8 bb)
SB: $100.50 (100.5 bb)
BB: $96.50 (96.5 bb)
UTG+1: $381.60 (381.6 bb)
MP1: $100 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with 8d 8c
UTG+1 calls $1, 4 folds, Hero raises to $5, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $4

Flop: ($11.50) 7c Qd 8h (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $5, Hero raises to $25.50, UTG+1 calls $20.50

Turn: ($62.50) Qs (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $59, Hero raises to $176, UTG+1 calls $117

River: ($414.50) 7s (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $66, Hero calls $66

Results: $546.50 pot ($3 rake)
UTG+1 showed 6c Qc (a full house, Queens full of Sevens) and won $543.50 ($271 net)
Hero mucked 8d 8c (a full house, Eights full of Queens) and lost (-$272.50 net)

Donkey had less than 10% equity on the flop, and ~15% on the turn.