Now that I've finished my monthly review for March, it's time to set some goals for April. I likely won't have quite the same amount of free time this month that I did in March, so with that in mind here are my goals:
(1) Play 35,000+ hands
Since I'll have substantially less free time, meeting this goal will be far more difficult this month, and may be a little unrealistic. Nonetheless, I'd like to push hard to get as many hands in as I can.
(2) Post a 3 ptBB/100 winrate or greater winrate at $50 NL.
This may or may not be challenging depending on if I run well, and what the difficulty jump is like between $25 and $50 NL. I expect the jump to be minor, so if that is the case I think this goal is attainable running slightly below average to average.
(3) Have my VPIP from the small blind for the month of April be <15.
This will be a major adjustment given my March stats, but one that needs to be made to prevent some spew and help my winrate.
(4) Have my VPIP from the CO be >16, and VPIP from the HJ (POS 2) be >13.
These changes should help my increase my winrate slightly, and start getting myself in the habits that will be necessary for higher limits.
(5) Get comfortable playing 12 tables at a time, up from my current standard of 10.
I've tried 12 tabling before and it went fine. I'm certain my hardware can support it, though I may need to pick up another 22" monitor for it to be bearable over the long hall. Part of this may entail be more diligent in table selection and no longer joining "fast" type tables. If I can accomplish this, crossing the 35k hand mark for the month should be reasonable.
Should I meet goals (1) and (2), I should add $1050+ to my roll over the month of April, along with ~16000+ FPPs (~$185). I'm excited to kick things off with a short session at $50 NL tomorrow!
Monday, March 31, 2008
Sunday, March 30, 2008
March Review
So we've come to the end of March, and it's time to see if I've met the goals I set for myself at the beginning of the month.
Here are my PT summary stats for the month of March:
Below is a breakdown of my position stats. One of the leaks I need to address going foward is that my VPIP in the small blind needs to go down, while my VPIP in the CO and Hijack (POS 1 and 2 respectively) should probably go up. I'd like to see myself have a VPIP of around 12-13 in the small blind in the future.
Here is the state of my bankroll as of the end of March:
As you can see, I've got around ~$150 worth of FPPs on top of my current roll, which leaves me with around 35 buyins for $50 NL, which I consider to be more than adequately rolled.
Next, lets take a look at my luck graph and general EV graph for the month. It's been brought to my attention from reading 2+2 lately that the general graph displaying Sklansky bucks, Showdown Winnings, and Actual Winnings can be a little misleading, because it only considers hands that go to showdown. What this typically causes, is that someone running close to average will appear to run mildly hot. This is because hands in which the hero completes his draw generally go to showdown, while those where he misses his draw generally do not, espcially at lower stakes. Thus, the graph considers lots of hands where the hero wins the pot with only partial equity, while the pots where the hero folds despite having had partial equity on previous streets are not considered. At any rate, here are the general/luck graphs:
As you can see from the first graph, I ran mildly hot. Due to the factors listed above, this likely puts me somewhere between running average and slightly above average. The luck graph shows that my all-in luck was good to the tune of +$133 (this is pure luck, huzzah). Thus, my all-in equity adjusted profit for the month is $835.98, putting me at a 4.1 BB/100 winrate when you consider my good all-in luck.
So, lets now see how my actual results stack up versus my goals for the month:
(1) Play 35,000+ hands.
I exceeded this, playing over 41k hands. However, this was helped by a strong start, and having four Wednesdays off during the month that will not be the case going foward. Thus, in future months reaching the 35,000 mark will be a significant challenge.
(2) Have a 3 ptBB/100 actual winrate or higher (this will somewhat be determined by variance).
It seems I ran mildly good, and posted a winrate of 4.70 BB/100. I significantly exceeded this goal.
(3) Earn over 4,000 VPPs and become a Gold Star.
Though it's not shown in the account summary, I accumulated over 5,000 VPPs and became a Gold Star. Mission accomplished.
(4) Increase the bankroll to $1400 so I can move up to $50 NL.
Bankroll increased to $1638 cash, with ~$150 in FPPs. Consider this goal crushed.
I'll likely post my April goals on Monday once I've had a little more time to think about what I want to achieve. I will definitely be moving up to $50 NL to start the month, and I'm excited to be where I am. As long as I can stay vigilant and not get burned out on poker, I'm pretty confident I can have a $10k roll by the end of the year!
Here are my PT summary stats for the month of March:
Below is a breakdown of my position stats. One of the leaks I need to address going foward is that my VPIP in the small blind needs to go down, while my VPIP in the CO and Hijack (POS 1 and 2 respectively) should probably go up. I'd like to see myself have a VPIP of around 12-13 in the small blind in the future.
Here is the state of my bankroll as of the end of March:
As you can see, I've got around ~$150 worth of FPPs on top of my current roll, which leaves me with around 35 buyins for $50 NL, which I consider to be more than adequately rolled.
Next, lets take a look at my luck graph and general EV graph for the month. It's been brought to my attention from reading 2+2 lately that the general graph displaying Sklansky bucks, Showdown Winnings, and Actual Winnings can be a little misleading, because it only considers hands that go to showdown. What this typically causes, is that someone running close to average will appear to run mildly hot. This is because hands in which the hero completes his draw generally go to showdown, while those where he misses his draw generally do not, espcially at lower stakes. Thus, the graph considers lots of hands where the hero wins the pot with only partial equity, while the pots where the hero folds despite having had partial equity on previous streets are not considered. At any rate, here are the general/luck graphs:
As you can see from the first graph, I ran mildly hot. Due to the factors listed above, this likely puts me somewhere between running average and slightly above average. The luck graph shows that my all-in luck was good to the tune of +$133 (this is pure luck, huzzah). Thus, my all-in equity adjusted profit for the month is $835.98, putting me at a 4.1 BB/100 winrate when you consider my good all-in luck.
So, lets now see how my actual results stack up versus my goals for the month:
(1) Play 35,000+ hands.
I exceeded this, playing over 41k hands. However, this was helped by a strong start, and having four Wednesdays off during the month that will not be the case going foward. Thus, in future months reaching the 35,000 mark will be a significant challenge.
(2) Have a 3 ptBB/100 actual winrate or higher (this will somewhat be determined by variance).
It seems I ran mildly good, and posted a winrate of 4.70 BB/100. I significantly exceeded this goal.
(3) Earn over 4,000 VPPs and become a Gold Star.
Though it's not shown in the account summary, I accumulated over 5,000 VPPs and became a Gold Star. Mission accomplished.
(4) Increase the bankroll to $1400 so I can move up to $50 NL.
Bankroll increased to $1638 cash, with ~$150 in FPPs. Consider this goal crushed.
I'll likely post my April goals on Monday once I've had a little more time to think about what I want to achieve. I will definitely be moving up to $50 NL to start the month, and I'm excited to be where I am. As long as I can stay vigilant and not get burned out on poker, I'm pretty confident I can have a $10k roll by the end of the year!
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Long Weekend Review
I played a very quick 30 minute or so session with Will watching over my shoulder as a tutorial on Friday, followed by two ~3-4 hour sessions on Saturday and Sunday. I ran well on Friday, and then slightly below average on Saturday and Sunday. The latter two sessions really had a bland feeling to them, as I couldn't hit a draw to save my life. I had a handful suckouts against, and one or two going my way as well if I recall correctly. The only word I can find to describe the weekend of poker is "meh", even though my winrate was 3.9 ptBB/100 and I only ran bad from an equity perspective to the tune of $14 (see the red line versus the blue line in the graph below). Here's my session graph:
Note that with the $98.00 I added to the roll this weekend, I'm now over $1500, which more than satisfies my nitty bankroll requirement for moving up to $50 NL. Looking forward to the jump up in limits at to begin April! I'm going to post again soon about some leaks in my game that I've identified, which should help my maximize my winrate at microstakes.
Note that with the $98.00 I added to the roll this weekend, I'm now over $1500, which more than satisfies my nitty bankroll requirement for moving up to $50 NL. Looking forward to the jump up in limits at to begin April! I'm going to post again soon about some leaks in my game that I've identified, which should help my maximize my winrate at microstakes.
Friday, March 21, 2008
Gold Star + I Run Good!
I played short session Tuesday evening, where I ran extremely well due to one epic suckout (there's no way anyone was folding my hand, but I was behind). I continued to run good Thursday evening, but not because I was sucking out. I hit tons of sets, and had donkeys wanting to play for stacks when I had the nuts (and they had air most of the time, hah). To top it all off, I had no notable cooler hands, and only one memorable suckout against. At the end of my session, I also collected my 4,000th VPP of the month and graduated to Gold Star! This means my FPP modifier will increase from 1.5 to 2, (an effective 33% boost in my rakeback, huzzah) and I'll get free entry into a $100,000 tournament on the last Saturday of each month.
Below is my graph for Thursday's session only, where I added a good chunk to the roll:
I'm going to write a piece about identifying a few leaks in my game, but I think I'll do that in a separate post. However, I feel the need to post a hand history from Tuesday's session which holds great educational value. Playing an extremely "nitty" style is an easy way to make money at lower limits. I run into lots of nits every day, and I don't mind playing against them, though I'd must rather be up against fish, for obvious reasons. Hell, playing 13.5/9.5 poker, I'm not that far removed from beind a nit myself. However, nits don't win money at high limits (think $600 NL and up). Why not? Because they are extremely predictable and the bulk of the regulars at the higher limits actually pay attention to your playstyle and are running a HuD with statistics for information (as I do).
Players at high limits paying attention to playstyle should make it more difficult for all players though, right? The problem for the nits of the world is that they play so few hands, their range is extremely narrow and it makes it very easy to play perfect poker against them. They make money at the lower limits because the majority of players (and even many of the winning TAG regulars) aren't paying enough attention to their style, or know how to exploit it even if they are. So, without further ado I give you a hand history that shows how easy it is to play against a known nit.
Our nitty villian in this hand is 9/1/1 over 500+ hands.
NL Texas Hold'em (0.10/0.25)
Game #16083855692, Table "Jucunda III" (9 Handed Max.)
--------------------
Seat #8 is the button
Preflop:
The Flop: [Js 8c 2s]
The Turn: [Js 8c 2s | Qc]
The River: [Js 8c 2s Qc | 6s]
The Showdown:
Hand Summary:
Because our villian has only been raising 1% of his hands preflop over a fairly large sample, this narrows his range to basically AA/KK. Thus, when he makes such a small raise, I still have nearly exactly the implied odds I need to call for set value. The fact his range is so narrow also increases the +EV of this play, because he is likely stacking off with AA/KK every time when I hit my Q. Unfortunately, the Q didn't come on the flop, and I am ready to fold to his continuation bet. Except he decides to slowplay aces.
Here's a little general advice: never slowplay anything but complete monsters. Instead, he gives me a free card, I spike my Q (I would have folded to any flop bet), he triggers his turn "trap" after my bet and check-raises all in. I happily call, tell him "this is why you don't slowplay aces", and win the pot. Of course I wasn't sure if he was on AA or KK until a few seconds later, but his extremely narrow range of hands he raises with preflop made it trivial to play perfect poker against this particular villian. Him misplaying the hand terribly just further increased my edge.
Below is my graph for Thursday's session only, where I added a good chunk to the roll:
I'm going to write a piece about identifying a few leaks in my game, but I think I'll do that in a separate post. However, I feel the need to post a hand history from Tuesday's session which holds great educational value. Playing an extremely "nitty" style is an easy way to make money at lower limits. I run into lots of nits every day, and I don't mind playing against them, though I'd must rather be up against fish, for obvious reasons. Hell, playing 13.5/9.5 poker, I'm not that far removed from beind a nit myself. However, nits don't win money at high limits (think $600 NL and up). Why not? Because they are extremely predictable and the bulk of the regulars at the higher limits actually pay attention to your playstyle and are running a HuD with statistics for information (as I do).
Players at high limits paying attention to playstyle should make it more difficult for all players though, right? The problem for the nits of the world is that they play so few hands, their range is extremely narrow and it makes it very easy to play perfect poker against them. They make money at the lower limits because the majority of players (and even many of the winning TAG regulars) aren't paying enough attention to their style, or know how to exploit it even if they are. So, without further ado I give you a hand history that shows how easy it is to play against a known nit.
Our nitty villian in this hand is 9/1/1 over 500+ hands.
NL Texas Hold'em (0.10/0.25)
Game #16083855692, Table "Jucunda III" (9 Handed Max.)
--------------------
Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: YES. GO ($34.10 in chips) Seat 2: Motiv8tor ($26 in chips) Seat 3: 813titan ($9.15 in chips) Seat 4: Daradon ($27.85 in chips) Seat 5: Ronfar3 ($28.65 in chips) Seat 7: sbf20 ($43.35 in chips) Seat 8: roland1952 ($25 in chips) Seat 9: djjeffypoo ($21.50 in chips) djjeffypoo posts the small blind $0.10 YES. GO posts the big blind $0.25 |
Preflop:
Ronfar3 has been dealt [Qs Qh] Motiv8tor calls $0.25 813titan calls $0.25 Daradon folds Ronfar3 raises $1.25 to $1.50 sbf20 folds roland1952 folds djjeffypoo raises $2.25 to $3.75 YES. GO folds Motiv8tor folds 813titan folds Ronfar3 calls $2.25 |
The Flop: [Js 8c 2s]
djjeffypoo checks Ronfar3 checks |
The Turn: [Js 8c 2s | Qc]
djjeffypoo checks Ronfar3 bets $6.75 djjeffypoo raises $6.75 to $13.50 Ronfar3: raises $11.40 to $24.90 and is *ALL-IN* djjeffypoo calls $4.25 and is *ALL-IN* |
The River: [Js 8c 2s Qc | 6s]
The Showdown:
djjeffypoo shows Aq Ah Ronfar3 shows Qs Qh Ronfar3 won $41.60 from pot |
Hand Summary:
The Final Board: [Js 8c 2s Qc 6s] Ronfar3 showed Qs Qh and won $41.60 with three of a kind, Queens djjeffypoo (small blind) showed Ac Ah and lost with a pair of Aces |
Because our villian has only been raising 1% of his hands preflop over a fairly large sample, this narrows his range to basically AA/KK. Thus, when he makes such a small raise, I still have nearly exactly the implied odds I need to call for set value. The fact his range is so narrow also increases the +EV of this play, because he is likely stacking off with AA/KK every time when I hit my Q. Unfortunately, the Q didn't come on the flop, and I am ready to fold to his continuation bet. Except he decides to slowplay aces.
Here's a little general advice: never slowplay anything but complete monsters. Instead, he gives me a free card, I spike my Q (I would have folded to any flop bet), he triggers his turn "trap" after my bet and check-raises all in. I happily call, tell him "this is why you don't slowplay aces", and win the pot. Of course I wasn't sure if he was on AA or KK until a few seconds later, but his extremely narrow range of hands he raises with preflop made it trivial to play perfect poker against this particular villian. Him misplaying the hand terribly just further increased my edge.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Revised Bankroll Goal for March
At the end of February I posted my March goals. I'm on pace to meet them all, but it turns out I didn't set a very good bankroll goal. My roll was at $725 at the end of February, and I wanted to play 35k hands of $25 NL at 3 ptBB/100 or better during the month, which would net a profit of $525. So, my bankroll goal should have been around $1250. However, since my roll is currently just over that mark, I'd like to set something a little more aggressive, so I'm going to make it $1400. I'll be moving up to $50NL at the end of the month regardless, as I should be more than adequately rolled for it.
Thus, goal #4 for the month shall be ammended to:
(4) Increase the bankroll to$1000 $1400.
Thus, goal #4 for the month shall be ammended to:
(4) Increase the bankroll to
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Post-Review 550 hand heater
I wasn't intending on playing anymore after my Weekend Review blog post, but due to the water being off in my apartment (hopefully it's back soon...) I played a quick 550 hands late Sunday night.
It seems all I had to do was really bitch about how I was running, because I ran really good! Although my actual showdown winnings were only marginally above my Skansky bucks, I had no memorable cooler hands and three significant heaters where I was given full 100BB stacks or more. Those hands are below (and nope, still no spot with my AA versus KK preflop).
Heater Hand 1: I have AA, flop top set against bottom set. Just a cooler hand for the villian.
Heater Hand 2: I have AA, flop top set against AK making TPTK. Surprised the mediocre TAG villian couldn't find the fold button on this one.
Heater Hand 3: Flopped a set of 7s versus villian's AA. Tough spot for the villian, I doubt I would have folded here either.
Below is the graph of the 550 hands:
There's one hand I'd like to discuss from this session. I ended up winning a sizable pot, but I really had to think about the shove on the flop and wasn't sure I was making the right decision at the time. Here's the hand history:
Villians:
I didn't have any stats on Treewoman.
Dinolater is a 48/13/1 donk.
NL Texas Hold'em (0.10/0.25)
Game #16037279434, Table "Felicia V" (9 Handed Max.)
--------------------
Seat #2 is the button
Preflop:
The Flop: [5s 7d 9d]
The Turn: [5s 7d 9d | 6h]
The River: [5s 7d 9d 6h | 8d]
The Showdown:
Hand Summary:
So, after Treewoman's flop shove, there is $18.20 in the pot, and it is $9.70 to me to call. I'm getting roughly 2:1 on my money. Thus, I'd need 33% equity to make that call. However, we still have Dinolater acting behind us, and he has shown strength by reraising the initial flop bet. The advantage to shoving rather than calling, aside from avoiding a nasty spot on the turn after a non-diamond, is the fold equity gained against Dinolater. Him calling the shove is also not terrible, as we are drawing to the nut flush, and thus our outs are not tainted. Lets take a look at our equity versus standard ranges for the two villians on the flop:
Treewoman: 28.467% 77-JJ, 55, ATs-A9s, A7s, K9s+, K7s, QTs+, JTs, A9o, A7o, K9o, K7o
Dinolater: 30.411% 99+, 77, 55, AQs+, JTs, AJo+, JTo
Ronfar3 (Hero): 41.122% AdTd
Considering the wide ranges of both villians, I had more than enough equity for the shove to be +EV. Even moreso, the fold equity gained versus Dinolater would boost my equity in the pot up to ~50% in the cases he folds, making it even better expected value. Thus, I played it right (and hit the diamond for good measure)!
It seems all I had to do was really bitch about how I was running, because I ran really good! Although my actual showdown winnings were only marginally above my Skansky bucks, I had no memorable cooler hands and three significant heaters where I was given full 100BB stacks or more. Those hands are below (and nope, still no spot with my AA versus KK preflop).
Heater Hand 1: I have AA, flop top set against bottom set. Just a cooler hand for the villian.
Heater Hand 2: I have AA, flop top set against AK making TPTK. Surprised the mediocre TAG villian couldn't find the fold button on this one.
Heater Hand 3: Flopped a set of 7s versus villian's AA. Tough spot for the villian, I doubt I would have folded here either.
Below is the graph of the 550 hands:
There's one hand I'd like to discuss from this session. I ended up winning a sizable pot, but I really had to think about the shove on the flop and wasn't sure I was making the right decision at the time. Here's the hand history:
Villians:
I didn't have any stats on Treewoman.
Dinolater is a 48/13/1 donk.
NL Texas Hold'em (0.10/0.25)
Game #16037279434, Table "Felicia V" (9 Handed Max.)
--------------------
Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: stagflation ($14.65 in chips) Seat 2: mouratix ($36.95 in chips) Seat 3: Ronfar3 ($24.75 in chips) Seat 4: Oasis88 ($27.45 in chips) Seat 5: DINOLATER ($50.50 in chips) Seat 6: Feuchte15 ($34.40 in chips) Seat 7: TreeWoman ($12.95 in chips) Seat 8: Tauraba ($9.10 in chips) Seat 9: hongzhong ($4.90 in chips) Ronfar3 posts the small blind $0.10 Oasis88 posts the big blind $0.25 |
Preflop:
Ronfar3 has been dealt [Ad Td] DINOLATER raises $0.50 to $0.75 Feuchte15 folds TreeWoman calls $0.75 Tauraba folds hongzhong folds stagflation folds mouratix folds Ronfar3 calls $0.65 Oasis88 folds |
The Flop: [5s 7d 9d]
Ronfar3 checks DINOLATER bets $1.25 TreeWoman raises $1.25 to $2.50 Ronfar3 calls $2.50 DINOLATER raises $5.25 to $7.75 TreeWoman: raises $4.45 to $12.20 and is *ALL-IN* Ronfar3: raises $11.80 to $24 and is *ALL-IN* DINOLATER folds |
The Turn: [5s 7d 9d | 6h]
The River: [5s 7d 9d 6h | 8d]
The Showdown:
Ronfar3 shows Ad Td TreeWoman mucks hand Ronfar3 won $32.95 from pot |
Hand Summary:
The Final Board: [5s 7d 9d 6h 8d] Ronfar3 (small blind) showed Ad Td and won $32.95 with a flush, Ace high TreeWoman mucked Ac 7c |
So, after Treewoman's flop shove, there is $18.20 in the pot, and it is $9.70 to me to call. I'm getting roughly 2:1 on my money. Thus, I'd need 33% equity to make that call. However, we still have Dinolater acting behind us, and he has shown strength by reraising the initial flop bet. The advantage to shoving rather than calling, aside from avoiding a nasty spot on the turn after a non-diamond, is the fold equity gained against Dinolater. Him calling the shove is also not terrible, as we are drawing to the nut flush, and thus our outs are not tainted. Lets take a look at our equity versus standard ranges for the two villians on the flop:
Treewoman: 28.467% 77-JJ, 55, ATs-A9s, A7s, K9s+, K7s, QTs+, JTs, A9o, A7o, K9o, K7o
Dinolater: 30.411% 99+, 77, 55, AQs+, JTs, AJo+, JTo
Ronfar3 (Hero): 41.122% AdTd
Considering the wide ranges of both villians, I had more than enough equity for the shove to be +EV. Even moreso, the fold equity gained versus Dinolater would boost my equity in the pot up to ~50% in the cases he folds, making it even better expected value. Thus, I played it right (and hit the diamond for good measure)!
Online Weekend Review
I'm getting really sick of running bad. Even though my showdown winnings were close to my Sklansky bucks, I had a ridiculous number of cooler hands during the 6.6k hands I played this weekend. It's a real statement to how many brutal players there are at $25 NL that I can run KK into AA five goddamn times in the same session (while not once having my AA up against KK) and still make money. Beyond that, there were a couple of epic suckout hands. In the first, I got it all in on the flop with AA against a villian with AKs who had to either hit running kings or running diamonds to pull out the hand. Yup, I was a 95% to 5% favorite and of course he pulls out the diamonds. The other hand I had middle set on the flop up against KK as an overpair, ~120 big blinds deep. I get it all in against the villian, who proceeds to runner runner the backdoor flush. Being a 10:1 favorite isn't enough, it seems I need to flop quads for my hands to actually hold up.
I could really use an extended heater session one of these days. Anyway, here is my session graph for this weekend:
I could really use an extended heater session one of these days. Anyway, here is my session graph for this weekend:
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Warning: Brag Hand History Post Incoming
I just finished a fairly long online session, but will be playing more tonight and tomorrow (Sunday) so I will wait until those sessions are complete before doing a review blog post.
However, since I just broke my "Biggest pot at $25 NL" record, I feel the need to post. There's not much to learn from this hand as it's so obvious to slowplay and very difficult to play wrong.
For the record, this hand was the third time I flopped quads in roughly an hour and a half of playing. I also had turned quads once previously in the session. Anyway, here's the hand.
Villians of Note:
BOZZ19882 is a 56/37/2 maniac donkey.
going is 26/5/0.5 loose passive fish.
ladebonis is a 32/12/1.15 lagtard fish.
NL Texas Hold'em (0.10/0.25)
Game #16007329898, Table "Gabriella II" (9 Handed Max.)
--------------------
Seat #4 is the button
Preflop:
The Flop: [2d 7c 7s]
The Turn: [2d 7c 7s | Td]
The River: [2d 7c 7s Td | 4d]
The Showdown:
Hand Summary:
However, since I just broke my "Biggest pot at $25 NL" record, I feel the need to post. There's not much to learn from this hand as it's so obvious to slowplay and very difficult to play wrong.
For the record, this hand was the third time I flopped quads in roughly an hour and a half of playing. I also had turned quads once previously in the session. Anyway, here's the hand.
Villians of Note:
BOZZ19882 is a 56/37/2 maniac donkey.
going is 26/5/0.5 loose passive fish.
ladebonis is a 32/12/1.15 lagtard fish.
NL Texas Hold'em (0.10/0.25)
Game #16007329898, Table "Gabriella II" (9 Handed Max.)
--------------------
Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: JayAce9 ($15.65 in chips) Seat 2: Ksirasira ($17.75 in chips) Seat 3: going ($32.70 in chips) Seat 4: BIRDSFAN1 ($11.55 in chips) Seat 5: ladebonis ($62 in chips) Seat 6: mspitolai ($25 in chips) Seat 7: Ronfar3 ($31.75 in chips) Seat 8: Johnytop ($25 in chips) Seat 9: BOZZ19882 ($15.75 in chips) ladebonis posts the small blind $0.10 mspitolai posts the big blind $0.25 |
Preflop:
Ronfar3 has been dealt [7d 7h] Ronfar3 calls $0.25 Johnytop folds BOZZ19882 raises $0.25 to $0.50 JayAce9 folds Ksirasira folds going calls $0.50 BIRDSFAN1 folds ladebonis calls $0.40 mspitolai folds Ronfar3 calls $0.25 |
The Flop: [2d 7c 7s]
ladebonis checks Ronfar3 checks BOZZ19882 bets $1 going calls $1 ladebonis calls $1 Ronfar3 raises $1 to $2 BOZZ19882 folds going calls $1 ladebonis calls $1 |
The Turn: [2d 7c 7s | Td]
ladebonis checks Ronfar3 bets $2 going calls $2 ladebonis calls $2 |
The River: [2d 7c 7s Td | 4d]
ladebonis checks Ronfar3 bets $4.50 going raises $6.25 to $10.75 ladebonis: raises $46.75 to $57.50 and is *ALL-IN* Ronfar3 calls $22.75 and is *ALL-IN* going calls $17.45 and is *ALL-IN* |
The Showdown:
ladebonis shows 8d Ad going shows Th Tc going collected $1.90 from side pot Ronfar3 shows 7d 7h Ronfar3 collected $94 from main pot |
Hand Summary:
Total pot $98.90 Main pot $94. Side pot $1.90. | Rake $3 The Final Board: [2d 7c 7s Td 4d] going showed Th Tc and won $1.90 with a full house, Tens full of Sevens ladebonis (small blind) showed 8d Ad and lost with a flush, Ace high Ronfar3 showed 7d 7h and won $94 with four of a kind, Sevens |
Friday Night at the Grey Eagle ($1-$2 NL)
I played a ~6 hour session at the Grey Eagle, and had a great seat at a good table with one fish at my right for the whole night, and another for some of it. Unfortunately, early on I had AA cracked by 75o, with the fish rivering trips in a ~$400 pot. So sick. Luckily I didn't tilt, and played solid working my remaining $100 stack into an eventual $460 for $160 profit. I got a lot of practice playing a 50bb stack which was good, and I think I made very few mistakes.
My biggest pot won was doubling up my ~$220 stack to $440, when I had TT in a straddled pot. I limped in EP (a mistake) and the super aggro maniac on the button popped it to $40 after maybe three other limpers. This guys only moves were to bet and raise, and I know he had pushed several people off hands at the river by making huge bets. He had been playing a large stack for most of the night, until he lost $300+ to a fish that rivered him, and shortly after was thrown out of the casino for an unknown reason. The fish being tossed really sucked, since he was on my right and was surely going to donate to the table, so everyone was dissapointed. He must have done something before getting his seat at our table, as his conduct wasn't that bad while he was with us. Long story short, I hit my set and let him do the betting, allowing me to get it all in easily.
Overall I was happy with my play, but it sure would have been nice if my AA had held up. Could have had a +$700 night easily.
My biggest pot won was doubling up my ~$220 stack to $440, when I had TT in a straddled pot. I limped in EP (a mistake) and the super aggro maniac on the button popped it to $40 after maybe three other limpers. This guys only moves were to bet and raise, and I know he had pushed several people off hands at the river by making huge bets. He had been playing a large stack for most of the night, until he lost $300+ to a fish that rivered him, and shortly after was thrown out of the casino for an unknown reason. The fish being tossed really sucked, since he was on my right and was surely going to donate to the table, so everyone was dissapointed. He must have done something before getting his seat at our table, as his conduct wasn't that bad while he was with us. Long story short, I hit my set and let him do the betting, allowing me to get it all in easily.
Overall I was happy with my play, but it sure would have been nice if my AA had held up. Could have had a +$700 night easily.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Check-Jamming the Flop
I played a quick ~1100 hand session last night and made a buyin worth of profit. Had a few river suckouts against, but no real cooler hands. According to Sklansky I ran slightly cold, but lack of coolers (with a couple marginal heaters) suggests to me that it was more average than anything.
I'm going to post one hand history that is really a completely standard play for a solid TAG player, but I think it'll help a few readers who are learning the game. I'm including the results, but try not to be results orientated when thinking about the hand.
Villian is a 41/10/5 aggro fish over ~100 hands.
Poker Stars Cash Table
NL Texas Hold'em (0.10/0.25)
Game #15919672934, Table "Vala V" (9 Handed Max.)
--------------------
Seat #7 is the button
Preflop:
The Flop: [Qh 3c Kc]
Hand Summary:
First we should talk about the preflop 3-bet. It is folded around to the villian who raises 10% of his hands preflop, on the button. It's unknown how much the villian values position, but probably safe to assume he'll open looser than normal (as he should) to try to steal the blinds. He makes a standard raise, and I 3-bet AQs because I am ahead of the bottom half of his range here. The lesson is that players widen their raising range when in good position, and thus we can 3-bet them lighter in such cases. That said, 3-betting AQs isn't even considered light in this case, however I would have also 3 bet AQo, AJs, KQs, TT+ against this particular villian's button raise.
The flop gives me the nut flush draw, along with middle pair-top kicker and an overcard. A very good flop for my hand, as I'm ahead some of the time, and have so many outs that I have good equity even if the villian has a king. So, why is check-jamming the flop much better than betting out, or check-calling to see if we hit our outs?
The explaination is fairly simple. First and most significantly, checking allows us to induce a bluff from a very aggressive villian. The best part is that even if he bets out and isn't bluffing with a hand like KJ/AK/KQ, we still have lots of equity. Furthermore, we want to get the money in when our equity is strongest, because another club or an ace turn potentially scares the villian away from commiting any more money with a hand like KJ. On the other hand, if the turn blanks and doesn't improve our hand, we have much less equity going to the river.
To finish off the analysis, lets take a look at our equity versus the villian's range on the flop:
Board: Kc Qd 3c
Villian: 25.866 % 77+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo
Hero: 74.134 % AcQc
So against his entire range we have huge equity. Lets see what our equity is like against the "worst case" scenario hands, just for kicks:
Board: Kc Qd 3c
Villian: 58.880% QQ+, AKs, KQs, AKo, KQo
Hero: 41.120% AcQc
Even in this case, we have solid equity and absolutely can't fold.
I'm going to post one hand history that is really a completely standard play for a solid TAG player, but I think it'll help a few readers who are learning the game. I'm including the results, but try not to be results orientated when thinking about the hand.
Villian is a 41/10/5 aggro fish over ~100 hands.
Poker Stars Cash Table
NL Texas Hold'em (0.10/0.25)
Game #15919672934, Table "Vala V" (9 Handed Max.)
--------------------
Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: UMDane ($17.20 in chips) Seat 2: bakalatron ($24.30 in chips) Seat 3: loi21 ($29.95 in chips) Seat 4: DragonSnake1 ($4.15 in chips) Seat 7: HLDMPLAR ($28.55 in chips) Seat 8: Cho.Kon.It ($24.05 in chips) Seat 9: Ronfar3 ($25 in chips) Cho.Kon.It posts the small blind $0.10 Ronfar3 posts the big blind $0.25 |
Preflop:
Ronfar3 has been dealt [Ac Qc] UMDane folds bakalatron folds loi21 folds DragonSnake1 folds HLDMPLAR raises $0.75 to $1 Cho.Kon.It folds Ronfar3 raises $3 to $4 HLDMPLAR calls $3 |
The Flop: [Qh 3c Kc]
Ronfar3 checks HLDMPLAR bets $5 Ronfar3: raises $16 to $21 and is all-in HLDMPLAR folds Ronfar3 won $17.25 from pot Ronfar3 doesn't show hand |
Hand Summary:
The Final Board: [Qh 3c Kc] Ronfar3 (big blind) won $17.25 |
First we should talk about the preflop 3-bet. It is folded around to the villian who raises 10% of his hands preflop, on the button. It's unknown how much the villian values position, but probably safe to assume he'll open looser than normal (as he should) to try to steal the blinds. He makes a standard raise, and I 3-bet AQs because I am ahead of the bottom half of his range here. The lesson is that players widen their raising range when in good position, and thus we can 3-bet them lighter in such cases. That said, 3-betting AQs isn't even considered light in this case, however I would have also 3 bet AQo, AJs, KQs, TT+ against this particular villian's button raise.
The flop gives me the nut flush draw, along with middle pair-top kicker and an overcard. A very good flop for my hand, as I'm ahead some of the time, and have so many outs that I have good equity even if the villian has a king. So, why is check-jamming the flop much better than betting out, or check-calling to see if we hit our outs?
The explaination is fairly simple. First and most significantly, checking allows us to induce a bluff from a very aggressive villian. The best part is that even if he bets out and isn't bluffing with a hand like KJ/AK/KQ, we still have lots of equity. Furthermore, we want to get the money in when our equity is strongest, because another club or an ace turn potentially scares the villian away from commiting any more money with a hand like KJ. On the other hand, if the turn blanks and doesn't improve our hand, we have much less equity going to the river.
To finish off the analysis, lets take a look at our equity versus the villian's range on the flop:
Board: Kc Qd 3c
Villian: 25.866 % 77+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo
Hero: 74.134 % AcQc
So against his entire range we have huge equity. Lets see what our equity is like against the "worst case" scenario hands, just for kicks:
Board: Kc Qd 3c
Villian: 58.880% QQ+, AKs, KQs, AKo, KQo
Hero: 41.120% AcQc
Even in this case, we have solid equity and absolutely can't fold.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Luck
My bankroll cracked $1k on Stars this weekend, so barring a downswing I'm well on my way to meeting my March goals.
That's beside the point for today though. As I'm sure you've seen in this blog, I always like to review my sessions to evaluate my play based on my Sklansky bucks versus actual winnings user PokerEV. It's a great tool to "remove" variance from analysis, but unfortunately it really only equalizes people drawing out. You could still have a session of playing "perfect" poker, run your KK into AA five times, and drop several buyins while having Sklansky tell you that your EV was horrible (because it was, against the villians actual hand, but likely not against his range). Thus, while Sklansky buck evaluation can give you a "better" idea of your true winrate, how many hands do you have to play before your heater/cooler hands inevitably equalize?
Obviously someone on the 2+2 forums with a background in statistical analysis was asking himself the same question, because they posted this thread. If you've ever wondered just how significant variance is, I definitely recommend reading it, even if you don't understand the math.
The result is clear: variance is huge, and until you've played a very large number of hands, you should most definitely not be underestimating luck in poker. For comparison, I'll have to log ~125,000 hands total to be able to say with 95% confidence that my true winrate is within 2.0 ptBB of my actual. 2.0 ptBB is a huge margin, and to reduce that further will require a significant additional number of hands (roughly ~1 million to reduce the margin to +- 0.5 ptBB). As it stands now, over ~45k hands I'm a ~3.5 pt/BB winning player. According to Sklansky bucks I'm running cold, and I definitely don't feel like I've had any more heater hands than I've had coolers. All that said though, it would be perfectly reasonable for my true winrate to be significantly lower (though I maintain it's probably higher!) than my actual, based purely on the math.
That's beside the point for today though. As I'm sure you've seen in this blog, I always like to review my sessions to evaluate my play based on my Sklansky bucks versus actual winnings user PokerEV. It's a great tool to "remove" variance from analysis, but unfortunately it really only equalizes people drawing out. You could still have a session of playing "perfect" poker, run your KK into AA five times, and drop several buyins while having Sklansky tell you that your EV was horrible (because it was, against the villians actual hand, but likely not against his range). Thus, while Sklansky buck evaluation can give you a "better" idea of your true winrate, how many hands do you have to play before your heater/cooler hands inevitably equalize?
Obviously someone on the 2+2 forums with a background in statistical analysis was asking himself the same question, because they posted this thread. If you've ever wondered just how significant variance is, I definitely recommend reading it, even if you don't understand the math.
The result is clear: variance is huge, and until you've played a very large number of hands, you should most definitely not be underestimating luck in poker. For comparison, I'll have to log ~125,000 hands total to be able to say with 95% confidence that my true winrate is within 2.0 ptBB of my actual. 2.0 ptBB is a huge margin, and to reduce that further will require a significant additional number of hands (roughly ~1 million to reduce the margin to +- 0.5 ptBB). As it stands now, over ~45k hands I'm a ~3.5 pt/BB winning player. According to Sklansky bucks I'm running cold, and I definitely don't feel like I've had any more heater hands than I've had coolers. All that said though, it would be perfectly reasonable for my true winrate to be significantly lower (though I maintain it's probably higher!) than my actual, based purely on the math.
Friday, March 7, 2008
Super Short Session, 500 hands of Magic
I broke the status quo of running cold for a brief 500 hand period, winning just over 3 buyins last night over only 500 hands. Below is a brag hand that I believe is the biggest pot I've taken down playing $25 NL on Stars. Note that I bet out the flop specifically because I expected the pre-flop 3-bettor to shove his overpair (he did). It should also be mentioned that based on the 10/5 rule I was intending to fold the 3s preflop to the 3-bet, until the limper and original raiser called behind, to give me great odds to get paid off should I hit.
My bankroll is now up to ~$940 on Stars, from the initial $500. I think the gap between my total showdown winnings and Sklansky bucks still has me in the "running bad" category. Anyway, here's the hand.
POKERSTARS GAME #15796154950: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/03/06 - 23:58:05 (ET)Table "Zoya III" (9 Handed Max.)
--------------------
Seat #6 is the button
Preflop:
The Flop: [9c 9s 3c]
The Turn: [9c 9s 3c | 3d]
The River: [9c 9s 3c 3d | Jc]
The Showdown:
Hand Summary:
My bankroll is now up to ~$940 on Stars, from the initial $500. I think the gap between my total showdown winnings and Sklansky bucks still has me in the "running bad" category. Anyway, here's the hand.
POKERSTARS GAME #15796154950: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/03/06 - 23:58:05 (ET)Table "Zoya III" (9 Handed Max.)
--------------------
Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: silge ($19.65 in chips) Seat 2: Pumpkin Butt ($24.25 in chips) Seat 3: PETER ISMAEL ($25.80 in chips) Seat 4: whoisthegoos ($19.45 in chips) Seat 5: Ronfar3 ($24.65 in chips) Seat 6: stratton2002 ($35.05 in chips) Seat 7: PrettyZ ($5.05 in chips) Seat 8: Paco10881 ($30 in chips) Seat 9: wcsagain ($14.40 in chips) PrettyZ posts the small blind $0.10 Paco10881 posts the big blind $0.25 |
Preflop:
Ronfar3 has been dealt [3s 3h] wcsagain folds silge folds Pumpkin Butt folds PETER ISMAEL calls $0.25 whoisthegoos raises $0.75 to $1 Ronfar3 calls $1 stratton2002 raises $2.25 to $3.25 PrettyZ folds Paco10881 folds PETER ISMAEL calls $3 whoisthegoos calls $2.25 Ronfar3 calls $2.25 |
The Flop: [9c 9s 3c]
PETER ISMAEL checks whoisthegoos checks Ronfar3 bets $7.50 stratton2002: raises $24.30 to $31.80 and is all-inPETER ISMAEL folds whoisthegoos calls $16.20 and is *ALL-IN* Ronfar3 calls $13.90 and is *ALL-IN* |
The Turn: [9c 9s 3c | 3d]
The River: [9c 9s 3c 3d | Jc]
The Showdown:
Ronfar3 shows 3s 3h stratton2002 mucks hand Ronfar3 collected $10.40 from side potwhoisthegoos mucks hand Ronfar3 collected $58.95 from main pot |
Hand Summary:
Total pot $72.35 Main pot $58.95. Side pot $10.40. | Rake $3The Final Board: [9c 9s 3c 3d Jc] whoisthegoos mucked 7c Kc Ronfar3 showed 3s 3h and won $69.35 with four of a kind, Threes stratton2002 (button) mucked As Ah |
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Sunday Session + Review
I played a 2.7k session on Sunday, for +$100, running average. A few brutal suckouts against were countered by myself drawing better than usual and getting paid off from the implied odds. At this rate, it seems the most difficult of my March goals to reach will be the 35,000 hand marker, as in one weekend I'm 1/4 the way through my VPP goal (~1,000 earned so far), and my bankroll only is up to $890.
I decided to take a look at my entire Pokerstars history (all 26028 hands!) in PokerEV. During this period I've been running pretty average in terms of showdown winnings versus equity, and beating the game for 3.6ptBB/100, which I'm content with.
Here's the graph for my entire 10-tabling $25 NL Pokerstars history:
Also, it's worth noting that my game has evolved significantly since I started. My first sessions I was running as a 12/8/1.8 player, while I'm now playing 14/10/2 poker. This is mostly a result of raising far more hands in LP/CO/BU, and I think doing so has increased my winrate significantly. I'm definitely solidly in the TAG category now, nobody can call me a nit!
I decided to take a look at my entire Pokerstars history (all 26028 hands!) in PokerEV. During this period I've been running pretty average in terms of showdown winnings versus equity, and beating the game for 3.6ptBB/100, which I'm content with.
Here's the graph for my entire 10-tabling $25 NL Pokerstars history:
Also, it's worth noting that my game has evolved significantly since I started. My first sessions I was running as a 12/8/1.8 player, while I'm now playing 14/10/2 poker. This is mostly a result of raising far more hands in LP/CO/BU, and I think doing so has increased my winrate significantly. I'm definitely solidly in the TAG category now, nobody can call me a nit!
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Saturday's 3.7k hand session
I played a ~4.5 hour, 3,700 hand session on Saturday. I ran slightly bad (not going to post the graph, but I earned more Sklansky bucks than actual, and had a couple coolers like KK versus AA with few reciprocal spots). I still ended up winning just under 3 buyins, at 3.7 ptBB/100, so I'm happy with how it went.
Since I haven't done so in awhile, here's a hand for discussion:
Villian is a 41/3/0.8/120 fish.
Seat #1 is the button
Preflop:
The Flop: [7d 6h Th]
The Turn: [7d 6h Th | Qc]
The River: [7d 6h Th Qc | Ah]
The Showdown:
Hand Summary:
Obviously, I got the money in with the worst of it here, and was saved by the river completing my draw. Would anyone have just called the extremely weak turn bet here? Against his range, I think I'm well ahead on the turn, and definitely have fold equity. I'm torn between thinking I played this hand fight, despite it being -EV against the opponents actual hand (but in my opinion, very much +EV against his hand range).
For kicks, here is what Equilator has to say regarding my equity versus my opponent's range:
Villian: 34.558% 99-JJ, 66, A2s+, KTs+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, ATo+, KTo+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o
Hero: 65.442% KsQh
I think I played it ok!
Since I haven't done so in awhile, here's a hand for discussion:
Villian is a 41/3/0.8/120 fish.
Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Ronfar3 ($28.90 in chips) Seat 3: 1040gal ($39.45 in chips) Seat 4: iezzie manni ($11.25 in chips) Seat 5: gilbert_dh ($22 in chips) Seat 6: lee676 ($24.85 in chips) Seat 7: fuerto ($28.85 in chips) Seat 9: 1337phynix ($24.80 in chips) 1040gal posts the small blind $0.10 iezzie manni posts the big blind $0.25 |
Preflop:
Ronfar3 has been dealt [ Qh Ks ] gilbert_dh folds lee676 folds fuerto folds 1337phynix calls $0.25 Ronfar3 raises $1 to $1.25 1040gal folds iezzie manni calls $1 1337phynix folds |
The Flop: [7d 6h Th]
iezzie manni checks Ronfar3 bets $1.75 iezzie manni calls $1.75 |
The Turn: [7d 6h Th | Qc]
ncplumbr joins the table at seat #8iezzie manni bets $1 Ronfar3 raises $7 to $8 iezzie manni: raises $0.25 to $8.25 and is all-inRonfar3 calls $0.25 |
The River: [7d 6h Th Qc | Ah]
The Showdown:
iezzie manni shows 6d 6c Ronfar3 shows Qh Ks Ronfar3 won $21.75 from pot |
Hand Summary:
The Final Board: [7d 6h Th Qc Ah] Ronfar3 (button) showed Qh Ks and won $21.75 with a straight, Ten to Ace iezzie manni (big blind) showed 6c 6d and lost with three of a kind, Sixes |
Obviously, I got the money in with the worst of it here, and was saved by the river completing my draw. Would anyone have just called the extremely weak turn bet here? Against his range, I think I'm well ahead on the turn, and definitely have fold equity. I'm torn between thinking I played this hand fight, despite it being -EV against the opponents actual hand (but in my opinion, very much +EV against his hand range).
For kicks, here is what Equilator has to say regarding my equity versus my opponent's range:
Villian: 34.558% 99-JJ, 66, A2s+, KTs+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, ATo+, KTo+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o
Hero: 65.442% KsQh
I think I played it ok!
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