Supernova 2009 (10% to Elite), and Some Hands

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	100,067
Pace:	17867 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Persona 4 (PS2)

If you recall, it took me until mid July 2008 to hit Supernova for the year. It took me until January 30th in 2009.

My Friday session was pretty positive. I ran very close to average, which feels like smoking hot given my month. Earned a little over $1k between winnings and rakeback.

Here are two hands, one at 100NL and one at 200NL, both against regs. The first is pretty epic, and had some good chat to go along with it which is unfortunately excluded. The reg in question is TwoSmeets (a poster on 2+2 and FTR), who is a solid player and a cool guy. He didn't want to call the river but felt obliged since all the minraises were awesome.

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
SB: $86.85 (86.9 bb)
BB: $128.05 (128.1 bb)
UTG: $101 (101 bb)
UTG+1: $20 (20 bb)
MP1: $64.30 (64.3 bb)
MP2: $63.10 (63.1 bb)
Hero (MP3): $101.50 (101.5 bb)
CO: $122.75 (122.8 bb)
BTN: $71.55 (71.6 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with Kc Ks
UTG calls $1, 3 folds, Hero raises to $4.50, CO calls $4.50, 3 folds, UTG calls $3.50

Flop: ($15) Th Tc 4h (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $8.50, CO raises to $17, UTG folds, Hero raises to $25.50, CO calls $8.50

We get minraised with a strong overpair on a paired flop by a non-terrible player. There are bad regs who try to bluff on such flops with hands that have showdown value (say 77 on this board). This is retarded because you are repping a flopped boat or quads, which are unlikely. However, this fact makes it a great spot to fast play such monster hands!

Anyway, TwoSmeets isn't terrible, so his raise is for value, either thin (with JJ-QQ) or not with the nuts. I "click it back" and he flats. This is good, though doesn't guarantee he doesn't have quads.

Turn: ($66) 4c (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $9, Hero raises to $18, CO calls $9

Check minraising just seems sorta appropriate here to disguise the strength of my hand a bit and get some extra money out of JJ-QQ. The flat call again suggests he has JJ-QQ over TT or 44, but does not guarantee it. The turn being a 4 does make it way less likely he has 44 though. At this point I'm not folding.

Also note that villain used a "gay bet" on this turn. I've been gay betting a ton lately, mainly for thin value on the river, and it is an excellent maneuver. This is actually an appropriate spot for such a play given his actual holdings against my range.

River: ($102) 3d (2 players)
Hero bets $53.50 and is all-in, CO calls $53.50

Value shove time. I figure I probably get a crying call out of QQ, and in fact got one out of JJ. He really shouldn't call with JJ here against me, but whatever. The sheer number of minraises in the hand factored into his call as well. Quite epic overall, and probably my favorite hand of the month.

Results: $209 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Kc Ks (two pairs, Kings and Tens) and won $206 ($104.50 net)
CO mucked Jc Jd (two pairs, Jacks and Tens) and lost (-$101.50 net)


Here is hand that falls into the "WTF was that?" category. It's against a pretty unremarkable reg who decides to spew. Note that it is at 200NL, so it ends up being a pretty big pot.

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
BB: $34 (17 bb)
UTG+1: $203 (101.5 bb)
MP1: $276.20 (138.1 bb)
MP2: $73.75 (36.9 bb)
MP3: $69.95 (35 bb)
CO: $201 (100.5 bb)
BTN: $40 (20 bb)
Hero (SB): $210.50 (105.3 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with Td Tc
UTG+1 raises to $8, 3 folds, CO calls $8, BTN folds, Hero calls $7, BB folds

Standard. I guess squeezing is ok too, but it is against an UTG raise, so I elect to flat.

Flop: ($26) Th Jh 4d (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $18, CO calls $18, Hero calls $18

This is a questionable spot for sure. Both villains in the hand are regulars, so if I raise they are going to know it's a set or a FD + overs etc. I decide to try to get another street of value from an overpair. Note that the CO's call is really weird. Most draws and sets would raise, so he really only reps QQ. At this point I am praying nobody has JJ as I have been coolered so many times at 200NL this month it isn't funny.

Turn: ($80) 6d (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO bets $175 and is all-in, Hero raises to $184.50 and is all-in, UTG+1 folds

Turn bricks, and CO overshoves? WTF. I have second nuts, I call.

River: ($430) Ks (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results: $430 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Td Tc (three of a kind, Tens) and won $427 ($226 net)
CO mucked 8h 7h (high card King) and lost (-$201 net)

In hindsight, him overshove jamming a big draw with one card to come probably wasn't the best idea. My questionable slowplay pays off.

That's it for today. Look for a monthly review on Superbowl Sunday. Note that it is taking all my self restraint to not post a long rant regarding the NFL playoff system, in which the 11-5 Patriots miss the postseason but the 8-8 Chargers do not.

85% Of The Time It Works 100% Of The Time

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	89061
Pace:	15081 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Persona 4 (PS2)

I know I haven't posted much if any hand discussion or strategy talk on the blog in recent memory, so I thought I'd post a hand today. The thinking behind it is slightly on the advanced side, but I'll walk you through step by step.

The villain in this hand is a 100NL regular who is actually pretty good. Most 100NL regs have glaring and obvious leaks or spew issues, but this guy isn't bad. He runs around 16/12 and folds to cbets around 60% of the time. He 3-bets around 2.8% pre, so basically AK, KK+ and bluffs against my opening range. I don't get 3-bet in the hand, but the stat is relevant in determining his range throughout the hand.

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
CO: $111.55 (111.6 bb)
BTN: $19.30 (19.3 bb)
SB: $159.80 (159.8 bb)
BB: $109.50 (109.5 bb)
UTG+1: $137.30 (137.3 bb)
MP1: $106 (106 bb)
Hero (MP2): $114.05 (114.1 bb)
MP3: $95.90 (95.9 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP2 with Qc Ks
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, MP3 folds, CO calls $4, 3 folds

Standard MP raise for me. When he calls, his range is basically 22-QQ, AJs-AKs, AQo-AKo. AKo and AKs can be somewhat discounted because he's definitely 3-betting them some of the time.

Flop: ($9.50) 3s 5s 7s (2 players)
Hero bets $6.50, CO calls $6.50

Standard c-bet. He's not a tard, so he's almost always raising a set here, and probably raising a made flush. Thus, his range is heavily weighted toward 88-QQ and AsX.

Turn: ($22.50) 7d (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $13, Hero raises to $33, CO folds

This is the interesting part of the hand. If we second barrel here, he folds a decent amount of the time but will also call down a fair bit with TT-QQ and maybe even AsX. He almost never has a set (would have raised flop), and probably also does not have a made flush. Thus, he has a hand that he is going to bet a lot of time, but does not want to play for stacks with. So, by taking a c/r line, we fold out a huge amount of his range.

Based on our raise size, we are risking $33 to win $35.5, so he needs to fold ~48% of the time for the play to be profitable. That's definitely the case, thus we have found a great spot to make a +EV play. I'd guesstimate he actually folds 80%+.

Results: $48.50 pot ($2.35 rake)
Hero mucked Qc Ks (a pair of Sevens) and won $46.15 ($22.65 net)

Insert (Sometimes) Witty Title Here

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	81895
Pace:	16136 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Persona 4 (PS2)

I put in a ton of hands on Friday and Saturday, I think 30k total. The session after my last blog post I suffered a nasty downswing (close to matching my largest ever) but thankfully recovered nicely in a session Saturday night. Note in the status section that I am well ahead of Supernova Elite pace (it requires ~2740 VPPs/day, so being 16k ahead is the equivalent of around 6 days). If I remain diligent I should be able to exceed my already lofty monthly goal of 100k VPPs. Barring interruption I'll hopefully end around 105-107k. Due to near permanent doomswitch it'll be a mediocre at best month profit wise, but I hope to still make it into five figures. I guess that isn't bad given I'm not in milestone bonus territory yet. Will be nice in the spring/summer when I'm knocking off the medium size ones month to month.

Persona 4 is still a great game by the way. Just thought I'd throw that out there. I need to hunt down a copy of Valkyria Chronicles for the PS3 to play after I finish Persona, but it seems to be sold out everywhere...

Feelin' Fine

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	67007
Pace:	9467 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Persona 4 (PS2)

For the first time this month I've put two legitimately "above average" sessions together back to back. As a result, my monthly winnings are now barely exceeding my rakeback profits. Hopefully it stays this way. Here is a graph of my Tuesday and Wednesday endeavors:


I need to put in some ridiculous volume during the final two Friday/Saturday sets of January if I'm going to reach my 100k VPP goal. I'm sure I've got it in me though, and it'll be awesome to be 10% to SNE at the end of the month. Lets hope I keep running good!

Roommates

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	62002
Pace:	9942 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Persona 4 (PS2)

Poker has been steadily mediocre lately. At this point, January is doomed to be a "meh" month at best, though hopefully I still manage five figures (which would not be impressive at all given the volume I play).

My childhood best friend moved into the basement suite of my house yesterday. He also recently separated from a long term relationship in which he and his girlfriend were living together, so we're dealing with a lot of the same stuff. I'm sure our living arrangements will be the source of lots of zany adventures and wacky stories, so stay tuned. I'm definitely excited about the opportunities.

On a closing note, Persona 4 is a very good game. I'm not sure I like it quite as much as Persona 3, but it's definitely in the same ballpark.

Endings and Beginnings

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	45042
Pace:	6682 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Persona 4 (PS2)

I'm quite certain I've never experienced quite so much change in such a short period of time before, and it is very possible I never will again. The bulk of the moving into my new house is complete, which is great. I said my goodbyes to those at the software development company I have worked at for almost four years, as my last day was the 9th. My girlfriend of the past three plus years and I have decided to go our separate ways, so I am slowly adapting back to single life. It feels like it's been a long time, 'cause it has. All this to deal with, in less than a week?

Poker has been the status quo, I put in a somewhat lengthy session tonight and made around ~$550 between winnings and rakeback. At the least I didn't run badly. The next few weeks will continue to be very interesting, as I get into a routine to support the necessary poker volume, while getting all the necessary errands done to complete the move. On top of that, I'm sure I'll be spending more time with my best friend Will, whom is also going through the ending of a long term relationship.

I wish I could just feel normal again right away, but perhaps that is too much to ask for. Life wouldn't be interesting without lots of twists, I guess.

(P.S. There will be pictures of the new house on the blog in the next couple weeks. I've still got stuff left to organize and set up!)

My Crib

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	40,153
Pace:	10,013 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Star Ocean: First Departure (PSP)

The new house is shaping up nicely, and while we've moved a lot of little things, the big push will be over the next two days. We also picked some new Ikea furniture, including a new desk for myself with adjustable height. Looking forward to the change, as my current desk it too high up. They'll be pictures of the house on the blog in the next week or so I imagine.

Poker has been mediocre lately. I finally put together some solid sessions on Friday/Saturday, but was back to running like garbage on Sunday. At this point I'd settle for a 1.5ptBB/100 winrate on the month (it's sitting at 0.8 currently, over 100k hands).

Go Flames Go

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	25,507
Pace:	9067 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Star Ocean: First Departure (PSP)

Another session, and I once again run below AIEV expectation, big surprise. On the positive, I took my Dad to the Flames game last night (against the league leading Sharks) at which they thoroughly dominated and came away with a 5-2 win despite some questionable officiating.

I'll be lucky to get more than an hour or two of poker in tonight, and I imagine Friday will be busy as well given I should be getting the keys to my new house. Hopefully I can still be healthily ahead of pace by the end of the weekend, but it's going to be interesting.

Sleep Is For The Weak

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	23,419
Pace:	9719 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Star Ocean: First Departure (PSP)

I put in a fairly lengthy (for a weekday) 7.7k hand session last night after work and the World Junior game. Unfortunately I ran $650 below all-in EV. KK > my AA every time, blah blah. Luckily I still managed to eek out some profit. Would be scary how much I'd make if I actually ran good...

The Grind Feels Like A Grind

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	20,427
Pace:	9467 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Star Ocean: First Departure (PSP)

I've started my pursuit of SNE by running as poorly as I probably have ever, perhaps excluding only a period of time in early August. I'll spare you any further complaining, but it really sucks being a 0.1 ptBB/100 winner over the 55k hands I've put in during the first 4 days of the year. At least I've made a grand in rakeback already, hah.

You've probably already noticed the table at the start of this post. I'll be using the format to keep track of where I'm at in terms of my SNE pursuit, as well as what console game(s) I'm currently enjoying. It is a given currently that I am also playing WoW on the side as Verity's raid leader.

Aside from maintaining focus and putting in lots more hands, tomorrow I will officially become a home owner. I'm really excited about it, and though the moving process will cut into some poker time, I am hoping to still put in 100k VPPs this month. At the currently fairly dissapointing VPP/hand rate that NL100 and NL200 games are providing, the goal will require around ~275k hands. Fingers crossed I guess. I'll post some pictures of the new place when we've moved in and gotten organized.

Finally, tomorrow I plan on coming up with a "milestone" schedule for this month, doing my best to organize my play to make sure I can hit the 100k VPP mark. I think this level of (perhaps excessive?) micromanagement will be helpful as I'm a goal oriented person, but the SNE goal is so far away it already seems tempting to give up and slack. Smaller, shorter term goals should hopefully help with the motivation.

I know I said I wasn't going to bitch more, and instead of posting one of the twenty times I've been one or two outed recently, I'll leave you with the following gem. Notice that he calls the flop raise with no pair, no draw, and queen high - sometimes it is hard to believe that people aren't legitimately trying to give me money. Unfortunately, even if they were trying to donate, recently they seem to always fail.

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players

BB: $198 (99 bb)
MP1: $200 (100 bb)
MP2: $191 (95.5 bb)
MP3: $112.55 (56.3 bb)
Hero (CO): $287.35 (143.7 bb)
BTN: $200 (100 bb)
SB: $344.80 (172.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with KsKh
2 folds, MP3 calls $2, Hero raises to $10, 3 folds, MP3 calls $8

Flop: ($23) 9h 3c 5c (2 players)
MP3 bets $14, Hero raises to $63, MP3 calls $49

Turn: ($149) Ts (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $96, MP3 calls $39.55 and is all-in

River: ($228.10) Qh (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $228.10 pot ($3.00 rake)
MP3 showed Qd Tc (two pairs, Queens and Tens) and won $225.10 ($112.55 net)
Hero mucked Ks Kh (a pair of Kings) and lost (-$112.55 net)