85% Of The Time It Works 100% Of The Time

-- Status Update --
2009 VPPs:	89061
Pace:	15081 AHEAD
Currently Playing:	Persona 4 (PS2)

I know I haven't posted much if any hand discussion or strategy talk on the blog in recent memory, so I thought I'd post a hand today. The thinking behind it is slightly on the advanced side, but I'll walk you through step by step.

The villain in this hand is a 100NL regular who is actually pretty good. Most 100NL regs have glaring and obvious leaks or spew issues, but this guy isn't bad. He runs around 16/12 and folds to cbets around 60% of the time. He 3-bets around 2.8% pre, so basically AK, KK+ and bluffs against my opening range. I don't get 3-bet in the hand, but the stat is relevant in determining his range throughout the hand.

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
CO: $111.55 (111.6 bb)
BTN: $19.30 (19.3 bb)
SB: $159.80 (159.8 bb)
BB: $109.50 (109.5 bb)
UTG+1: $137.30 (137.3 bb)
MP1: $106 (106 bb)
Hero (MP2): $114.05 (114.1 bb)
MP3: $95.90 (95.9 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP2 with Qc Ks
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, MP3 folds, CO calls $4, 3 folds

Standard MP raise for me. When he calls, his range is basically 22-QQ, AJs-AKs, AQo-AKo. AKo and AKs can be somewhat discounted because he's definitely 3-betting them some of the time.

Flop: ($9.50) 3s 5s 7s (2 players)
Hero bets $6.50, CO calls $6.50

Standard c-bet. He's not a tard, so he's almost always raising a set here, and probably raising a made flush. Thus, his range is heavily weighted toward 88-QQ and AsX.

Turn: ($22.50) 7d (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $13, Hero raises to $33, CO folds

This is the interesting part of the hand. If we second barrel here, he folds a decent amount of the time but will also call down a fair bit with TT-QQ and maybe even AsX. He almost never has a set (would have raised flop), and probably also does not have a made flush. Thus, he has a hand that he is going to bet a lot of time, but does not want to play for stacks with. So, by taking a c/r line, we fold out a huge amount of his range.

Based on our raise size, we are risking $33 to win $35.5, so he needs to fold ~48% of the time for the play to be profitable. That's definitely the case, thus we have found a great spot to make a +EV play. I'd guesstimate he actually folds 80%+.

Results: $48.50 pot ($2.35 rake)
Hero mucked Qc Ks (a pair of Sevens) and won $46.15 ($22.65 net)