January Review - Almost Average

The first month of most small and mid stakes NLH cash game regulars having their effective rakeback reduced is in the books. While we'll be seeing some rake reductions in February (amounting to around ~4.5% at 100NL and less at 200NL), they won't come close to closing the gap of what was taken from the vast majority of regulars.

The games in January may not have been quite as good as December, but probably weren't too different than the last couple months of 2011. For someone playing 12-16 tables, things are in a pretty good place.

Unfortunately, I didn't run terribly well in January, and I'm definitely missing November and December already. A tiny bit of this is reflected in my AIEV gap, but the majority of the runbad came in the form of Sklansky EV. Stuff like getting 50bbs of a 125bb effective stack in preflop with AA against A7o repeatedly and having them flop 77x every time - in fact, 77x is more like the bottom of their flopping range, 777 far more common! I ran pretty awful at 200NL, but well enough at 400NL and 600NL that things evened out with regards to stake specific variance I think.

I'm reasonably happy with my volume on the month though I came up slightly short of my goal. I averaged 29 hours of work per week in January. I'm actually a little surprised I wasn't slightly over 30, but 29 is a lot better than the ~23-25 I grew accustomed two over the past couple years.



The bottom line:
$9198.66 table winnings
+$1615.88 FPP value (28,885 VPPs * 3.5FPPs/VPP * 1.6c/FPP)
+$300 stellar rewards
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$11,114.54 USD total profit.

It's worth mentioning that as I exceeded 25k VPPs for the month I'll qualify for a $300 "pace bonus" in February due to a promotion. Since there is a clearance requirement and I won't actually see the cash until the later stages of February I won't be counting that profit until next month.

Edging the Record

Up until today I had what was basically a three way tie in terms of my "best day ever" with regards to table winnings, with the three entries falling between $2150 and $2225. Today I finally have a new champion, and though the margin is by no means huge I think it deserves to stand alone at the top.



None of the hands are terribly interesting, but I obviously ran very well. Destroying two fish at the same $600NL table didn't hurt, though neither were full stacks. One of them was running around ~45% VPIP, but c/ring every single cbet. It took me two hands to bust him, the latter of which was the biggest winner of the day:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (7 handed)
Button ($600)
SB ($241)
BB ($600)
UTG ($600)
MP1 ($532.55)
Hero (MP2) ($609)
CO ($600)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q♣, Q♥
1 fold, MP1 calls $6, Hero bets $24, 4 folds, MP1 calls $18

Flop: ($57) 8♦, J♥, 4♠ (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $42, MP1 raises to $102, Hero calls $60

Turn: ($261) 5♥ (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $144, 1 fold

Total pot: $261 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero didn't show Q♣, Q♥.
Outcome: Hero won $258


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (8 handed)
Button ($600)
SB ($600)
BB ($660)
UTG ($309)
UTG+1 ($600)
MP1 ($491.30)
Hero (MP2) ($976)
CO ($672.30)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K♣, K♥
2 folds, MP1 calls $6, Hero bets $24, CO calls $24, 3 folds, MP1 calls $18

Flop: ($81) J♥, 3♦, 5♠ (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $54, 1 fold, MP1 raises to $120, Hero raises to $186, MP1 calls $66

Turn: ($453) 6♣ (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $450, MP1 calls $281.30 (All-In)

River: ($1015.60) A♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $1015.60 | Rake: $3

Results:
MP1 had J♦, 9♦ (one pair, Jacks).
Hero had K♣, K♥ (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: Hero won $1012.60

Wide Left

One more win please Patriots!

I'm still running abhorrently, but I want to post a pretty interesting hand from today. I take a very non-standard line on almost every street (flop being the least weird), and end up having my river overbet paid off by king high. The villain in the hand is a regular, and I understand exactly what he's thinking - I played it like a spazzy flush draw and he blocks AKcc and AJcc so I must have a smaller busted FD which he beats. The idea was of course to rep a FD the whole way (having the Ac in my hand makes it pretty unlikely the villain is going to have a FD, though it turned out otherwise in this particular instance), and hope to get a curiosity payoff of the large variety from Qx, KK, etc should the board run out clean for them.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (9 handed)
Hero (CO) ($400)
Button ($499.20)
SB ($400)
BB ($400)
UTG ($312.85)
UTG+1 ($400)
MP1 ($438.25)
MP2 ($408.80)
MP3 ($406)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A♣, A♥
4 folds, MP3 bets $8, Hero calls $8, 3 folds

Flop: ($22) 4♠, 4♣, Q♣ (2 players)
MP3 bets $12, Hero raises to $40, MP3 raises to $96, Hero calls $56

Turn: ($214) 3♦ (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero checks

River: ($214) 2♦ (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $230, MP3 calls $230

Total pot: $674 | Rake: $3

Results:
MP3 mucked K♣, J♣ (one pair, fours).
Hero had A♣, A♥ (two pair, Aces and fours).
Outcome: Hero won $671

In hindsight, I wish I had held ATcc instead of AA!

Simultaneous

I haven't posted in a while, despite there being a lot of stuff going on that the frequent readers of this blog might expect me to be commenting on. I think this is mostly because my opinions are pretty middle of the road on said topics. The Patriots steam rolled Tebow and the Broncos, which was expected. Tebow is pretty clearly a great person, but he has quite a ways to go as a passer. The Flames reacquired Mike Cammalleri from the Canadiens sending Rene Bourque the other way. I'm moderately happy with the deal because we definitely got the best player and Bourque has selfish moments now and then where he can very easily cost his team the game.

Poker has been pretty lousy overall this month. Earlier on I was having the kinds of sessions where I'd have ten turn all-ins with 80%+ equity and fail to fade a single river. The last four days have been a little better though. Today I had an interesting thing happen: I stacked a fish on two different tables at the exact same time. I've probably had this happen versus a regular before over the years (though I don't remember a particular instance), but I'm pretty sure this was the first time it has ever happened versus a fish with both hands being played simultaneously. The HHs are below, though both are extremely standard especially given his tendencies.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, €1.00 BB (9 handed)
BB (€120.85)
UTG (€199.50)
UTG+1 (€39.45)
MP1 (€96)
MP2 (€107.15)
MP3 (€102.50)
Hero (CO) (€106)
Button (€98.60)
SB (€76.10)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K♦, K♣
5 folds, Hero bets €3, 2 folds, BB raises to €8, Hero raises to €20, BB calls €12

Flop: (€40.50) 3♥, 4♥, 2♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets €26.50, BB raises to €100.85 (All-In), Hero calls €59.50 (All-In)

Turn: (€212.50) J♠ (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (€212.50) 10♥ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: €212.50 | Rake: €2

Results:
BB had 8♦, 8♥ (one pair, eights).
Hero had K♦, K♣ (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: Hero won €210.50


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, €1.00 BB (8 handed)
UTG (€115.45)
UTG+1 (€100.90)
MP1 (€77.95)
MP2 (€111.70)
CO (€105.50)
Button (€117.70)
Hero (SB) (€100)
BB (€100)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q♠, Q♦
2 folds, MP1 bets €3, MP2 calls €3, CO calls €3, 1 fold, Hero raises to €15, 1 fold, MP1 calls €12, 2 folds

Flop: (€37) 2♥, A♣, A♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets €7, Hero calls €7

Turn: (€51) 8♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets €11, Hero calls €11

River: (€73) Q♣ (2 players)
Hero bets €67 (All-In), MP1 calls €44.95 (All-In)

Total pot: €162.90 | Rake: €2

Results:
Hero had Q♠, Q♦ (full house, Queens over Aces).
MP1 had Q♥, 10♥ (two pair, Aces and Queens).
Outcome: Hero won €160.90

Accidental Extra Orbit = $$$$

As I was getting ready to shut down the last table of my Saturday afternoon session, I commented to my girlfriend that I wished I could take that table with me. As you might expect, the reason was that I had the jesus-seat on a whale running around 95/30/20 at 600NL.

I had "sit out next BB checked", but like an idiot checked "sit out next hand" just as my BB was being dealt. Of course the latter didn't register in time (but the automatic uncheck of the first action caused by the second action did, which should be impossible - obvious flaw in the software). At any rate, that meant for maximum efficiency I was honor bound to stay for another orbit. The third hand of said orbit, the whale blew his $900 stack down to ~$300. Then this happened for me:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (8 handed)
UTG ($286)
Hero (UTG+1) ($759)
MP1 ($601.05)
MP2 ($231)
CO ($1296)
Button ($600)
SB ($600)
BB ($609)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A♣, A♦
UTG calls $6, Hero bets $30, 3 folds, Button calls $30, 1 fold, BB raises to $120, UTG calls $114, Hero raises to $759 (All-In), 1 fold, BB calls $489 (All-In), UTG calls $166 (All-In)

Flop: ($1537) A♥, 3♦, 9♣ (3 players, 3 all-in)

Turn: ($1537) 10♠ (3 players, 3 all-in)

River: ($1537) 3♥ (3 players, 3 all-in)

Total pot: $1537 | Rake: $3

Results:
BB had K♣, K♥ (two pair, Kings and threes).
UTG had A♠, 7♥ (two pair, Aces and threes).
Hero had A♣, A♦ (full house, Aces over threes).
Outcome: Hero won $1534

A completely standard and uninteresting hand, but I was thrilled that my misclick induced orbit ended up being worthwhile, especially given the way I'm running this year it is an absolute miracle the board didn't run out 777Kx. I believe this was actually my third largest pot won ever - certainly the third most I've ever won in a single pot.