Heaters are fun

I played a short 2 hour session last night and ended up making ~$900 ($840 winnings, $60 rakeback). I did generate EV and luck graphs, but unfortunately forgot to email them to myself so I could post them from work today. Lets just say I ran like absolute God. I hit pretty much every draw. I think I was around $500-$600 above expectation in both Sklansky and all-in EV. It's nice to have some good luck for a change.

The biggest pot I took down was a $200NL heater hand where my AA was up against villain's KK. We were slightly deeper than normal (110BB or so) and AA held up. Unfortunately I did run my KK into AA once at $100NL and was set over set once at 100NL as well (QQQ versus AAA isn't cool) so from a heater vs. cooler perspective I was right around even.

Another big pot I won was multiway with two donkeys. It was one of those spots that comes purely down to pot odds, and I'm going to review it here to see if I made the right decision. It's going to be close either way.

I raised from EP with AdJd, got flatted by two fish, one running 50/10 and the other 30/5 or so. They're both bad obviously. Flop came 67T, two diamonds. I bet out something like $9 into the $12 pot, and the first donkey jammed the rest of his stack $90~ in. Other donkey calls. There is now ~$200 in pot, and I have to call $90. I'm going to whip up some hand ranges and try to come up with the EV of a call. I thought at the time that it was a call even if one of two donks always has a set or a straight.

I'm getting 2.22:1 on a call, so I need 31% equity for the call to be neutral EV. Lets consider two cases, the first being the "reasonable case" scenario, where the second donkey is willing to stack off somewhat light. The second case to be considered will be one where the second donk always has a set/straight and our overcards are never outs.

(1) Reasonable case:
Hero: 33.312% AdJd
SuperDonk: 21.202% TT-QQ,ATo,ATs,KTo,KTs,QTo,QTs,JTo,JTs,QdJd,KdTd,KdQd,Kd9d,T7o,T7s,T6o,T6s,76o,76s,98o,98s
RegularDonk: 45.486% TT-QQ, 66-77, 98s, 76s, 98o, 76o

Wow, thought I'd have more equity than that. I guess Superdonk having two of my outs some of the time hurts.

(2) Worst case:
Hero: 31.689 % 31.644 % 0.091 % 68.265 % AdJd
SuperDonk: 12.050 % 9.844 % 4.412 % 85.744 % TT-QQ,ATo,ATs,KTo,KTs,QTo,QTs,JTo,JTs,QdJd,KdTd,KdQd,Kd9d,T7o,T7s,T6o,T6s,76o,76s,98o,98s
RegularDonk: 56.260 % 54.099 % 4.322 % 41.579 % TT,66-77,89o,89s

Even in this case, we still have the equity necessary to call. Cool. I thought it was going to be close, but I expected both cases to be slightly higher EV than they are. Thankfully the 4d hit on the turn and I ended up taking it down.