Anyway, lets get started.
Aside from the one slightly nasty breakeven stretch of 40k hands, a pretty sexy graph. The winrate numbers are right where I would love them to always be. 3.15ptBB/100 is the nuts.
Here are my Sklansky EV graphs for the month. First half EV followed by second half EV:
As you can see above I ran good in terms of Sklansky EV this month (to the tune of ~$1.3k), especially during the second half.
Lets take a look at first and second half all-in luck:
I ran poorly in all-in luck during the first half, and good during the second half, both nearly by the exact same margin. Consider these a draw, giving me neutral all-in luck for the month.
Lets take a look at Set-o-meter stats for the month:
I flopped a reasonable amount of sets (running marginally bad in that regard) but what is really eye-catching are the heater vs cooler stats. I ran brutally bad in all 3-categories. I had folks two out me 10 times in 35 tries (they have a ~10% chance to do so each time, so this is ridiculous). I had the lower set in a set-over-set situation 9 more times than the opposite (there was a single one-outer going each direction). Finally, in AA vs KK I sucked out once in 17 tries with my KK vs AA, while they sucked out 4 times in 19 tries with KK vs my AA. Pretty ridiculous.
Combining the positive Sklansky EV with the hideous heater vs cooler hands, I think I ran pretty close to average on the month, though it's pretty hard to say exactly. I most definitely didn't run significantly hot or cold however.
The bottom line:
+$64.35 staking profit*
+$38.00 credit (collusion?)
+54,113 VPPs * 3.5 Supernova multiplier = 189395 FPPs = 1.6c/FPP = $3030.33
+$2200 milestone bonus ($3k - $800 worth of FPPs to purchase)
+$9679 winnings
---------------
$15011.73 total profit in October.
*Thanks to Will for this. He is now playing on his own roll and doing well.
A new personal best month continues the trend of a new record each month since I began in February. I imagine November will break this trend however, as I will not hit another milestone bonus until December, and I imagine I won't put in that many hands due to Wrath of the Litch King release.
One thing I've always found interesting is trying to determine a confidence interval for one's "true" winrate. Over the last 2 months, I believe I'm run pretty close to average during both, based on the metrics and measurement tools I have available to me (PokerEV, Setometer, etc). During that period, between $100NL and $200NL I have posted a 3.10ptBB/100 winrate over 271k hands. This is a significant sample size. My standard deviation (Pokertracker will calculate this for you) over this sample has been 30ptBB/100. Using uDevil's Poker Results Calculator with my data, we can form a 95% confidence interval around my winrate -+1.13ptBB/100. Thus, there is a 95% chance my true winrate during this period is between 1.97ptBB/100 and 4.23ptBB/100. Interesting.
A 99% confidence interval results in my winrate being +-1.68ptBB/100 (1.68ptBB/100 to 4.58ptBB/100). While these results are somewhat reassuring, it just goes to show what a giant factor variance is. If I had run in the bottom 5% in terms of luck over these two months, my 3.10ptBB/100 winrate could instead have been between 1.68ptBB/100 and 1.97ptBB/100. That is almost cut in half! Scary stuff.
Finally, lets address the goals I set:
(1) Start a new Pokertracker DB
Done, and it was a good idea to do this.
(2) Play 150k hands
Failure, no excuse.
(3) Play 12.5/10 ATS27 at the very nittiest
I ended up playing my stardard 12/9 ATS25. These goals are bullshit in the first place, I've got to stop setting them. Who cares if the 2+2 crowd loves the 17/15 ATS40 style.
(4) Play 20,000+ hands at 200NL
Failed, played 15.7k at 200NL. Still over 10% of my total hands, and game selection there is hard. I can definitely beat the limit handily though with good selection. More importantly perhaps I played 0 hands of 50NL this month. Yay.
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