Minor Adjustments

A minor tweak I've made to my game recently is lowering my raise size from the CO/BU/SB when folded to. I picked this up from a Johnny Everypot video on 2P2, and the reasoning behind why it is good to do so makes sense. The new raise size has also made me a little more comfortable playing what has been a 15/12 style lately.

My session last night ended up pretty average (+1.5BIs, +$75 in FPPs), mainly due to being set over set in a $370 pot. D'oh. I had one particularly interesting hand history I thought I'd share, as it is a great example of how good hand reading can pay off.

Villains in this hand:
UTG is a fish, I don't have his stats offhand.
MP3 is a TAG regular, who runs something like 14/12. He is definitely capable of making moves.

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players

BB: $144.65 (144.7 bb)
UTG: $107.55 (107.6 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): $100 (100 bb)
MP1: $19.55 (19.6 bb)
MP2: $18.65 (18.7 bb)
MP3: $100 (100 bb)
CO: $70.10 (70.1 bb)
BTN: $126.20 (126.2 bb)
SB: $118.95 (119 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG+1 with
UTG raises to $5, Hero calls $5, 2 folds, MP3 calls $5, 4 folds

I suppose I could have 3-bet light here to isolate the fish, but I much prefer a call. Standard.

Flop: ($16.50) (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $8, MP3 calls $8, UTG folds

When I bet out here, I expected to take the pot down right there unless MP3 has a set, in which case I get raised. It's also possible MP3 could have a big draw or two pair he would likely raise as well. The cold call was confusing, and in my head weighted his range heavily towards 55 and 99.

Turn: ($32.50) (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks

In hindsight, I should almost certainly be taking a bet-fold line here, as based on the flop action I'm very probably ahead with the villain still having some draw equity. However, he very well may fold 55 or 99 to a bet here (which isn't bad, because those hands have a fair number of outs). Checking to induce a bluff on the river (when the straight doesn't complete) isn't a terrible option, but I wasn't thinking about it at this point. It's also worth noting that while the third heart came, it being an ace reduces the chances that villain was drawing to a flush.

River: ($32.50) (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $24, Hero calls $24

At this point I timed down to put the hand together. I really should have taken more time on the turn and realized that a bet/fold line is best (it usually is), but instead I opted to figure the hand out here. Better late than never I guess. The action was completely consistent with the villain having a pair with a busted straight draw. He could also show up with a hand like KhQh here. Since we only need to be good ~30% of the time to make this call +EV, and I think this is a bluff ~50% of the time, I feel this is a pretty clear call. Note also that the villain's bet was fairly large, which is typically of a bluff that they don't want to be called.

Results: $80.50 pot ($3 rake)
MP3 showed (a pair of Sevens) and lost (-$37 net)
Hero showed (a pair of Tens) and won $77.50 ($40.50 net)

Villain did end up having a pair + straight draw, but not the hand I was expecting. Quite a loose call preflop, with a standard bluff at the end which we were able to snap off due to our hand reading skills.

Gifts and Curses

As I sort of assumed, the Double VPP week is very nearly as much of a curse as it is a blessing. The extremely high rakeback encourages regulars to try to play as many hands as possible, which reduces the quality of the games significantly.

Despite the poor games, I put in a 3.5k hand session last night earning myself 2.5k VPPs (6.25k FPPs, ~$94 in rakeback) and ended up +4.25 BIs thanks to running well. I was focused on implementing the changes mentioned in my July Goals post, and found myself being more aggressive from position, and stealing the blinds more. The game environment was prime for this, as blind stealing is most effective against nitty regulars.

I've also found myself both bluffing and making thin value bets more often on the river lately. As a result of this combined with the rock garden environment, my $ won without showdown (which has commonly been negative throughout my poker career so far, which is typical for a TAG at micro/small stakes) was significantly positive. While I'm not too concerned about keeping this trend going (as even at $100NL, much of a TAG's income comes from valuetowning fish who don't fold and go to showdown), I find it encouraging that I'm picking good spots to make regs fold the best hand.

I intend to try to play another ~3-4k hand session tonight, despite the certainty that the games will suck again. Hopefully they improve a bunch by Friday (an American holiday) which I have off from work.

Double VPP week!!1!11!!one!1!

Pokerstars launched a "2x" promotion today which begins with double VPPs from July 1st to July 6th. As this effectively puts my rakeback in the 50% range, I am going to grind my ass off this week. Since I have Friday off of work, I think I can probably play ~25k hands before the promotion ends if I go completely nuts and remain motivated. This will earn me around 19k VPPs, which is half of the remaining total I need to attain Supernova for the year.

This should be an interesting month indeed.

July Goals

Play 60,000 hands
It seems I always underestimate how much I'll be able to play during a month, so I'm setting my most aggressive goal yet in terms of hands played. I reached this total last month, so if I stay motivated it is certainly achievable.

Get a new desk and a new monitor, be comfortable 15+ tabling
This is by far the most significant goal for this month, as it requires me to get off my ass and do some serious work dismantling my old desk, buying a replacement, and picking up a new monitor. I'm thinking I'll go with a 27" Samsung, which should be able to house 12 tables on its own I believe (though I may have to reduce table size slightly compared to my current setup). If this is the case, I will be able to go up to 18 tables with the new monitor + one of my current 22" screens, and expand to 24 when I add a second 27". For this month however, I will consider it a success if I am playing 15 tables as my standard by August 1st.

Open up in position, steal more blinds, and 3-bet bluff regulars occasionally
My VPIP/PFR for June was similar to that of May, sitting around 13.5/10.5. My ATS jumped a small amount to around 26%, but I would like to increase this further. In July, I would like to play 14/11 poker with an ATS of %30+. I believe doing so will help increase my winrate a fair bit.

Stop being a wimp in the big blind
Though I don't have them offhand, I think my stats from the BB on the month were something like 12/5. Raising limpers and seeing flops with initiative is important, and by not raising hands like small pairs/broadways out of the BB, I am probably missing out on some easy money. I would like my BB stats to be something like 12/7 in July.

Those are my goals for the month. Here is hoping I pick right up in July where I left off at the end of June!