Dealing With Downswings

A surefire way to get me to play a ton of hands is to turn on my doomswitch. When I run bad, I inevitably try to grind out more hands and push through the downswing. This is inherently a very bad thing, as if tilt effected my game as much as it does many other folks, it probably would have done severe damage by now. Fortunately, the gap between my "A game" and "B/C game" when tilting or tired from playing too much isn't terribly large. So although my "true winrate" probably drops a little bit when I'm trying to grind through a downswing, the extra hands I play likely make up for it in terms of net profit.

Needless to say, this weekend was one of those weekends. I had a very nasty downswing on Friday, to the tune of 9 BIs. After a quick review of my history grinding FR NL, I've never had a downswing larger than 10 BIs. This is quite fortunate, but also a testament to how little tilt affects my game I would think. At any rate, after a painful start on Saturday I did eventually come to a significant upswing, and did end up making money on the weekend. When you consider the ~$200 in FPPs, the total probably comes to about $400... not impressive at all, especially over 14k hands. At one point on Friday, the gap between my Sklansky bucks and Showdown winnings was perhaps as ugly as I've seen it since the February downswing near the start of my grinding career.

Here is my EV graph for the weekend in total (by the end I'm out about $400 in showdown equity, and about $200 in set over set coolers versus heaters):


For reference, here is my month so far at $100NL:


My EV luck was getting so close to neutral on the month after a rocky start, then this happens. Ah well, hopefully I'll pick up some heater sessions in the near future. I'm still very happy with my game, and while there will certainly be more adjustments to make, I feel very comfortable at the stakes I'm at. Practice shall make perfect, especially against some of the regs I haven't seen playing lower.

Quick Update

I've picked up +4 BI during the past 2k hands split amongst several short sessions, running good during all of them. I think overall on the month now I'm right around average in terms of equity based luck, which is awesome. My winrate so far over 13k hands is right at 4ptBB/100.

I've noticed lately that when the game selection isn't great, I'm less motivated to play. While this isn't necessarily a bad thing, hopefully I can be more vigilant, as with good use of waiting lists I think there are always enough fish to support 12 tables.

I can't really think of a good strategy related topic, and don't have any interesting HHs laying around to discuss, so I guess this won't be much of a post. I think I broke my record for biggest post ever when I took a full stack along with a half stack the other night. An unknown raised, got called by halfstack fish, I 3-bet squeezed to $15 with AQo from the blinds. Surprisingly, both called (not good). Flop came KT7 two tone. Checked around (wtf?). Turn peeled a J without completing the flush to give me the nuts. I bet half the pot, big stack shoved with 99, short stack called with JT, I fistpump call. If he didn't have the short stack acting behind, I don't completely hate the gutsy bluff shove from the fullstack, but as played it was extreme spew as the fish is calling most of the time with 1 pair. I scooped the $250 pot.

I'll try to have something more interesting early next week after some weekend grinding.

First Few 100NL Sessions

It seems the move up in limits has gotten me very excited about poker again, as I've felt quite motivated to play lately. Unfortunately, my first few thousand hands contained a ton of coolers, and over the next five thousand or so I ran approximately five buyins below equity expectation. Thankfully, I had a bit of a heater session on Tuesday night, so my foray into the new limit hasn't been terrible so far.

The best part is, I've never felt better about my game. I'm more aggressive than ever in the appropriate spots. I feel like my postflop game is very solid, and while I sometime do still make some mistakes, I quickly realize my folly and as a result can make a note not to repeat it in the future.

Below is my EV graph for 100NL so far:


My luck graph for 100NL, showing that I'm -$170 in all-in luck thus far:


Finally, I'd like to discuss a hand from my Tuesday night session. This is probably one of the most interesting hands I've ever posted, because there are so many hands in my opponents range that have flopped huge. Initially after playing the hand, I thought I probably played it fairly well, but wasn't 100% sure. Lets look at it street by street.

Villain in this hand is 13/10/4.5 TAG over 100 hands, and seems decent.

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
UTG+1: $40.15 (40.2 bb)
MP1: $124.95 (125 bb)
MP2: $19 (19 bb)
MP3: $100 (100 bb)
CO: $103.45 (103.5 bb)
Hero (BTN): $122.75 (122.8 bb)
SB: $100 (100 bb)
BB: $49.80 (49.8 bb)
UTG: $105.40 (105.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with
4 folds, MP3 raises to $4, CO folds, Hero calls $4, 2 folds

Our villain open raises from the Hijack position. We have TT, which is well ahead of his range. Some people might 3-bet here, but we're not going to because:
(1)Our hand plays very well postflop, especially in position.
(2)We are ahead of our opponents raising range, but almost certainly not his 3-bet calling range. Thus, while 3-betting is +EV, it is very possibly not nearly as +EV as taking a flop in position and playing poker.

Thus, we call behind and see a flop.

Flop: ($9.50) (2 players)
MP3 bets $7, Hero raises to $27, MP3 calls $20

A pretty insane flop hits. We have bottom set, but many hands in our opponents range have flopped big as well. Our opponent c-bets, and we raise. I think a raise size of $30-$32 rather than the $27 I actually used during this hand would be closer to optimal, but this is a very small mistake at worst. We are raising for value in this situation, as there are many 2 pair hands our villain can have which will likely come along, as well as 1-pair hands which may have outs such as AsJs, QQ, KQ, AK, etc. Our raise size must ensure that our opponent is making a mistake by calling if he has an OESD. $27 does accomplish this, but $30-$32 would make our opponent's mistake larger, while staying reasonable.

We also should have a plan for if we get reraised. Unfortunately, a reraise will put us in a terrible spot, as we're sometimes drawing to one out against KK or JJ, sometimes praying for the board to pair against a straight, and sometimes ahead of a semi-bluff draw. Had I been reraised here, I think I would have made a crying call.

Turn: ($63.50) (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero checks

The turn comes and makes things worse for us, as an ace hits. Many of the one pair hands we were ahead of before now have a straight. AK and AsJs now have two pair. Two pair hands have not improved and are likely scared of the ace. Our opponent checks. The million dollar question is: "can we bet for value here?" I think the answer is no. The weaker two pair hands (KJ, KT) almost certainly fold to a half pot turn bet. AK perhaps occasionally finds a call, but I find that doubtful. AsJs might shove over our bet at this point, but probably would have raised the flop so it is a extremely small part of our villain's range. At this stage of the hand, we're either beat by a straight or a bigger set that is almost as scared as we are, or we are ahead of a two pair hand that really doesn't want to get any more money into the pot. The good news is that we have position. This hand would have been brutal to play OOP. IP however, we check behind and see what opponent does on the river.

River: ($63.50) (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $20, MP3 calls $20

The river blanks. Our opponent checks. Unless he is incredibly crafty, his hand now looks very much like two pair, or perhaps JJ/KK/AA that isn't interested in thin value. However, JJ/KK probably would have shoved the flop. Thus, two-pair is very much the most likely scenario. I decide to bet $20 to try to get a little more value out of two pair hands. I think this is a great spot to pick up some fairly thin value, and while a bet of $25-$30 might be a little better, I'm really happy with the way I played this street. Our opponent calls with KJ and we scoop the pot.

Results: $103.50 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed (three of a kind, Tens) and won $100.50 ($49.50 net)
MP3 mucked (two pairs, Kings and Jacks) and lost (-$51 net)

I'm very happy with the way I played this this hand. During the hand I wasn't sure if I should perhaps be taking a b/f or b/c line on the turn rather than checking behind, but after analysis, the check was clearly correct. I think the value bet on the end was important, because a lot of people would check the river behind. Due to the betting patterns throughout the hand however, it is a pretty obvious spot to make a small bet for extra value.

I'd also like to quickly discuss our villain's river call. He is getting 4:1 on his money, but all he beats is KT or JT (which by betting the river are turned into bluffs) or a busted flush draw (something like 9s8s, etc.) trying to bluff at the pot. It's not absolutely terrible, but unless he knows I like to bluff missed draws I think the correct play is to fold, despite the great 4:1 odds.

June Goals

I'm a very goal oriented person, and perhaps as a result, it's easy to be results orientated. In poker however, one cannot be results orientated and expect to improve, or stay sane for that matter. This is because we don't get a reasonably accurate picture of the true "results" until we have played hundreds of thousands of hands, due to the effects of variance. All one can do is make sure that the correct decisions are being made, and the results will eventually take care of themselves.

Because of the nature of poker, I'm not going to set goals which have anything to do with earnings or winrate anymore on a monthly basis. As I'm only playing typically ~50k hands per month, doing so just doesn't make sense as the matter is only partially in my hands. It's completely feasible that my winnings of $3.2k in the month of May (4.6ptBB/100) could have been $1.6k simply by running rather poorly. Worse luck than that is very much possible. Thus, while an earnings goal might make sense on a bi-yearly basis playing at my current rate (or perhaps bi-monthly if I was to go pro), they certainly hold little value for me on a monthly basis currently.

All that said, here are my goals for June:

Play 50,000 hands
I played 60k last month, and I only started 12-tabling (from previously 10-tabling) one week in. It seems I say this every month, but I don't expect to have quite as much poker time in June, so 50k seems like a good number to push myself towards without going overboard.

Be comfortable at $100NL
I don't think this one will be a problem, but I am moving up stakes this month, which is exciting as always. From my brief experience $100NL plays very similar to $50NL, and just about all the regulars agree there is little to no difference. It sure would be nice if I was able to run well enough (or average enough), to have my first $4k or $5k month. As long as I'm comfortable with my play at the $100NL limit however, I'll be happy with results.

Loosen up in position
I think I can increase my winrate a little by open raising more speculative hands from the CO and BTN. I'm going to start working suited one-gappers and maybe even some two-gappers into my game at these positions, and hopefully it'll help. This should also make me a little more difficult to play against for the few regulars that think well and are paying attention.

Big Blind: Be more aggressive!
I've improved my small blind play some lately, and while it still has a ways to go I'd like to start playing better out of the big blind as well. I think one of my bigger problems is I'm not aggressive enough with small/medium pairs and hands like KQo, which I've been simply checking to see a flop. Raising these hands will sometimes allow me to steal a few limps right away, or give me initiative after the flop to hopefully take the pot down with a c-bet.

That'll do it for my June goals. I guess I'll end this by whining about how bad I run (after a withdrawal too, doomswitched obviously) after being 5 buyins below equity on Sunday (though I did still make money at $100NL over the weekend, despite the horrid luck). Ah well, at the very least the donkeys are plentiful.