Missing Value

I played a solid 2k hand session for +$250 last night. I was put into several nasty cooler spots against donkeys who just happened to have huge hands, but I sucked out a couple times for a change.

A great online player once said that it is criminal to miss value at microstakes, and I couldn't agree more. Recently, people have fallen in love with the concept of pot control. Pot control is a great thing when it is applied appropriately: with very deep stacks against good players. Neither of these typically exist at micro or small stakes online poker. This doesn't mean we should be eager to stack off with overpairs or TPTK, but it does mean that we shouldn't be afraid to bet hands where we can get value out of worse. As a result of this, it also means we have to be able to make big folds when our value bets get raised (assuming the villain isn't a maniac).

Here is a hand I played last night which probably seems really standard, because is it. However, I'm certain a lot of players would have missed value on at least one street, and I'll talk about why playing it as I did is appropriate.

Villain in this hand is a 17/3/0.5 weak tight fish over 60 hands.

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players

SB: $60.35 (60.4 bb)
BB: $84.75 (84.8 bb)
UTG: $24.80 (24.8 bb)
UTG+1: $120 (120 bb)
Hero (MP1): $163.55 (163.6 bb)
MP2: $61.70 (61.7 bb)
MP3: $94 (94 bb)
CO: $38.10 (38.1 bb)
BTN: $111 (111 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP1 with
UTG calls $1, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $5, 5 folds, BB calls $4, UTG folds

Preflop is completely standard.

Flop: ($11.50) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7, BB calls $7

This is my typical c-bet size, and betting here is standard. I don't think many players would be bad enough to check the flop behind. It is usually on the turn or river that people tend to miss value. Based on this flop call, our villain's range likely consists of sets, pocket pairs, A9, flush draws, and suited connectors which flopped a pair plus a straight draw. We're way ahead some of the time, way behind occasionally, and a decent favorite against draws some of the time.

Turn: ($25.50) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $15, BB calls $15

The turn pairs the board, and likely changes nothing. Sure, it is possible our villain has a five, and some people might be paranoid of it enough to check behind. Checking here is terrible however, as there are still plenty of hands we get value out of (TT, 88, 66, A9, T9) as well as flush draws to charge. Thus, I bet a healthy amount to make calling with a draw -EV for the villain. At this point in the hand, if we get raised we almost certainly need to fold without a read. Our opponent is passive, and if he suddenly get aggressive we know we are beat nearly every time.

River: ($55.50) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $19, BB calls $19

The river likely changes nothing, although we are now ahead of an extremely poorly played (and very unlikely) straight. Our villain has $57 left behind. I'm a big fan of the "value shove" move on the river, but it probably doesn't make sense here. That said, checking behind also has us missing value a lot of time. Sure, we might valuetown ourselves against villain's QQ+ with a bet, but more likely we can pick up a little bit of extra value out of TT/66/88/A9/T9/98. We need to bet an amount such that that our villain can call with most (or all) of the range we beat. It is spots like this on the river where I know a lot of people would be checking behind, and while it isn't terrible, it is certainly not the optimal play.

It's worth noting that Zeebo's Theorem applies here. People really don't like folding full houses, so we should be confident that we can get value from the weaker boats we have beat. The more I think about it, value shoving here might actually be pretty close or perhaps marginally better EV when compared to the smaller bet which I used in practice. Hard to say for sure. If we had AA or KK, I definitely like a value shove. However, if we intended on playing for stacks we should have bet the flop and turn stronger to make the river shove a little less than pot sized.

Results: $93.50 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed (a full house, Fives full of Jacks) and won $90.50 ($44.50 net)
BB mucked (a full house, Fives full of Sixes) and lost (-$46 net)

We take down a good pot because we weren't scared to value bet our hand the whole way. Obviously, we wouldn't necessarily be betting for three streets of value against every opponent. But against many of the typical villains at micro and small stakes, we can and should be doing so in situations like the one above.

If I could play this hand again, I probably would instead bet roughly $10 on the flop, and $24 on the turn. This would result in a $70 pot on the river, allowing a value shove to be much more reasonable. Who knows if the villain would have still come along on all three streets, but I think against the average weak-tight fish these bet sizes are better.