I was intending to try and break down my thoughts as to why I think this phenomena exists in this post, but aside from the obvious points such as increases in game difficulty and more people chasing SNE, I keep failing to do so adequately. I'll leave you simply with this: I'm confident the vast majority of the regulars whom have seen their edge disappear in the last year do not understand how game theory applies at a very fundamental level to poker.
Anyway, here's a hand from today versus (surprise!) a regular whom used to win money but hasn't been beating the rake since July of '09. He's very TAG preflop, running around 13/10 over 4k hands. His raise cbet is 12% over this sample, a pretty reasonable number.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)
BB ($152.45)
UTG ($101.50)
UTG+1 ($49.50)
MP1 ($100)
Hero (MP2) ($118.45)
MP3 ($117.65)
CO ($118)
Button ($40.05)
SB ($137.05)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 2
, 2
3 folds, Hero bets $4, MP3 calls $4, 4 folds
Flop: ($9.50) 2
, J, Q
(2 players)Hero bets $6.50, MP3 raises to $13, Hero calls $6.50
After being minraised on the flop, I have what is probably the most interesting decision point in the hand. As noted above villain's raise cbet stat is pretty much middle of the road. However, his sizing is completely retarded and what makes things interesting. Minraising JJ, QQ, or QJ here would be awful under nearly all circumstances. He'd want to raise a big draw (say T9dd or AKdd) larger as well to benefit from FE. Basically, no good player should have a minraising range at all on this flop. I decide to flat to keep bluffs in his range and because if I 3b the flop I don't see him getting it in without a big draw, KdQd or an overset which has me crushed.
Turn: ($35.50) 7
(2 players)Hero checks, MP3 bets $13.90, Hero calls $13.90
The turn card sucks and I call to control the pot size, allow him to continue bluffing if that's his plan, and if he somehow does have a flush hopefully boat up the river. His sizing on this street is also ridiculous and makes the decision a bit more interesting. A made flush would want to price a set out of odds to boat up. Based on my flop line, he should fear I have a flush a decent amount of the time and he's going to get c/red. I can also very easily have a hand like AdAx here that if he had a set/non nut flush he'd want to price out with a bigger bet. Just like the flop, villain is once again repping nothing.
River: ($63.30) Q
(2 players)Hero checks, MP3 bets $86.75 (All-In), Hero calls $86.75
I really dislike calling overshoves as they're so often the nuts, but villain has repped nothing every postflop street and I have a boat. Snappity snap.
Total pot: $236.80 | Rake: $3
Results:
Hero had 2
, 2 (full house, twos over Queens).MP3 had 6
, 7 (two pair, Queens and sevens).Outcome: Hero won $233.80
I guess this might be why he doesn't win money anymore.
5 comments:
I got all in with him last night after that hand AK vs AK.
Hey Ronfar,
Been following your blog for quite some time now. Was wondering if you could clear up the "poker theory" you mentioned in your post that many regs seem to surprisely not have.
Is it simply stuff like we make our money from other people's mistakes; always think about what we are representing etc..?
Speedy 50nl player :)
I don't want to talk too much about it, but what I'm typically referring to is this:
Against a regular whom is thinking about what we have, we should be trying to play our range vs his range optimally at any given time. In order to do this well, we need to be able to come up with a range for our villain that isn't completely bogus. In addition, we need to understand basic game theory in order to figure out what action we should take with our hand vs his range at any given decision point (based on range vs range). A lot of regulars at SSNL are probably pretty decent at the former and can come up with decent ranges (which is a lot easier at FR than say 6max or HU), but completely botch the latter and burn money because of it.
Thanks for clearing it up. I understand how you don't wish to talk about it alot, probably due to the fact that other people can become educated etc.
Do you think we can talk about this outside this blog? I feel as though what you are saying can probably help me alot. I'm just a 50nl player that wants to make a bit of money to pay for university etc (ie, I am no threat to you.)
In no way do you have to feel obligated to say yes, or even reply to this post. Delete it if you wish. I just wanna learn a bit more about poker from one of the best players at stars currently.
Speedy
Unfortunately taking that discussion any further would end up requiring a full blown coaching session, and I don't offer any coaching services at this time.
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