Yup, that's a $10k gap in EV. Note that almost exactly $7k of the EV gap is of the "all-in" variety. Given that since April I've only picked up around $20k in pure table winnings, and that gap over the last few months is really quite ridiculous. Good thing I was able to run average for a few months to start the year - still not sure how exactly Stars allowed that to happen.
Anyway, moving beyond the whining, I made what has got to my most heroic call against a regular in a long, long time today. I make a lot of very light calls against fish and especially big donks routinely, but because regulars are both far less likely to spazz and far more aware of my image, I very rarely make really big calls against regs. Today however was the exception. The hand is below, with my street by street commentary in red.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (8 handed)
Button ($326.60)
SB ($335.65)
BB ($353.20)
Hero (UTG) ($204.60)
UTG+1 ($494.60)
MP1 ($504.75)
MP2 ($247.15)
CO ($500)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 10♠, 10♦
Hero bets $9, 2 folds, MP2 calls $9, CO calls $9, 3 folds
This is a 100-250bb deep ante table, which explains my 4.5bb open size. MP2 is a loose passive fish, and CO is a very LAG reg who runs around 21/19 with a 8% 3bet in my database. He's a break even player at best and semi spewy, but I'm confident he understands things like showdown value.
Flop: ($33.20) 3♣, 7♦, 2♣ (3 players)
Hero bets $23, 1 fold, CO calls $23
Standard value cbet against the fish, who unfortunately folds but the reg calls. Reg folds to cbets 55% over the sample I have, and given my range is strong here leading into a loose/passive station on a low board, I doubt he's floating here very often. That being said, he loves to 3b and would have very likely squeezed QQ and definitely KK+. He likes to raise flops as well, and would probably be raising sets nearly always and the nut flush at least some of the time. So, his range looks a lot like 88-JJ, club draws, and straight draws. He can definitely have hand like 45 in his range here, he's very loose.
Turn: ($79.20) K♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $44, Hero calls $44
Given my thoughts regarding his range on the flop, this is the real decision point for the hand. I can't really bet for value and would def hate life if I bet and got shoved on, so I check. Because his range has a lot of draws that will bet here, and he's likely to check back 99-JJ, I elect to c/c. If we c/c we really should be committing ourselves to call a blank river. There is also the possibility that he binked a pair with KcXc, so it's not a fistpump call by any means.
River: ($167.20) J♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $130, Hero calls $128.20 (All-In)
He shoved the river rather quickly, and I timed all the way down thinking about what made sense, as during the actual hand I hadn't thought through my turn play as well as I should have. I'm 90% sure he's checking back all of his one pair hands here on the river - and that polarizes his range a ton. If he didn't slow play a set on the flop and he's not shoving a KcXc one pair hand, then his range is almost all missed draws we beat, the only two hands that beat us being KcJc and 4d5d. Thus, I decide to be a hero. It's interesting to note that while I would most probably play AA the same way, given the break down and my willingness to make a big call here he probably should be shoving a hand like KcQc for thin value and to add more combos to his "non-air" range at the river.
Total pot: $423.60 | Rake: $3
Results:
Hero had 10♠, 10♦ (one pair, tens).
CO had 8♣, 6♣ (high card, King).
Outcome: Hero won $420.60
6 comments:
What software do you use in order to calculate how much you are below all in even? Thanks.
Assuming the same flop range I am wondering how things would change given a different villain. If villain had been the loose passive fish, do you bet the turn for value here? Same question if villain is a weak tight reg. Do you bet the turn as a bluff/value given that he will check back almost his entire range?
You forgot that JJ is in his range by the river.
That sklansky bucks calculator is a waste of time. There's a horrible bias built into it because the times you get sucked out on are the times you're going to showdown. Just think about it: fish make stupid calls on the flop and turn with low equity hands really often. They miss, you bet your top set or whatever, they fold and all is well in Sklansky land (when actually you ran slightly good, but since there was no showdown the program doesn't know). When they hit, it's much more likely to go to showdown, and OMG! You're down SOOOOOOOO much in sklansky bucks, so unlucky! Anyways, there is almost no way any good player is ever going to be anything but drastically down in Sklansky bucks because of the massive bias, so just stop using that program.
Re My Tyr: Both HEM and PT3 have built in AIEV functions.
Re BlackRain: If he's a loose passive fish, better the turn for thin value is pretty marginal but likely +EV. A weak tight reg basically can't have the same flop range, and is very likely going to be playing the hands that are in his range very differently on the flop - so I don't feel like I can answer.
Re Keilah: JJ is almost never betting the turn.
Sklansky bucks is what it is. It has a bias, (AIEV does too with card removal, but it's far less significant). The bottom line is, as long as you're aware of the biases, they are what they are and to simply ignore them is pretty dumb imo. Regarding the actual bias, the results are skewed the other way significantly as well against fish unless you are just open shoving or bet/bet/shoving every single draw. There are many good players who do not have negative gaps in their Sklansky bucks over extremely large samples because of this, though these are typically on the laggier side.
In my personal sample there, 70% of the gap is AIEV anyway - but of the 30% where a "passive fish" bias does exist (as due to my preflop play I have made hands more frequently than big draws), I doubt it's a quarter as significant as you seem to believe.
Sorry to hear about your variance, it sucks, but it happens to everyone.. and for longer then people can ever imagine. I'm not sure if you have seen this but if not, check it out and it can help put things in perspective on how long negative variance can last.
http://pokervariancesimulator.fr/
Good luck going forward!
Tj
Post a Comment