Closing the Deal

As I'm sure the majority of folks who read this blog are already aware, the deal between Pokerstars and the US DOJ to acquire Full Tilt Poker is done.

We knew this outcome was likely for some time now, but to have everything confirmed and the drama over with is nice. That being said, not everything is necessarily positive. A few thoughts on how the deal will affect me personally and my concerns going forward:

• I should be getting my money back (along with all other "Rest of the World" players) within 97 days. I didn't have a lot of money on FTP like some people, but it is still a positive not to be stolen from.
• These events should hopefully help to kick start the redemption process for the reputation of online poker in the public eye. Frankly, I think this factor is probably underestimated significantly and is the biggest positive to come from the deal, unless you are Daniel Cates and have well into seven figures owed to you.
• US players are going to have to try to claim their money through the DOJ (from a pool of money paid to the DOJ by Pokerstars), rather than simply allowing Stars to pay US players their balances as they did after Black Friday on their own site. I believe this is partially because a repayment plan by Pokerstars could be in violation of UIGEA financial regulations. Still, it wouldn't surprise me at all if a lot of the money owed to US players ended up simply staying with the DOJ, or percentages were skimmed off the top as a "processing fee". I'm glad I'm not a US player.
• Pokerstars and the re-opened FTP will be using separate player pools, potentially further shrinking the player pools currently present on Pokerstars. With the state of the games currently, any further damage to the player pool at Full Ring cash would be devastating, but to be honest I'm not too worried about it. I don't think a significant number of recreational players moved from FTP to Stars after Black Friday, and for the few that did, who says they are going to move back? To be honest, I don't think it is out of the question that games could improve on Stars as a result of the FTP relaunch, as former FTP regs who prefer that site for whatever reason head back there.
• Pokerstars and FTP brands will be allowed to apply for US regulation at such a time as it is possible. This is obviously the biggest reason why Stars is coughing up the money to make all this happen. Unless the post-regulation US players are allowed back into international player pools (very unlikely) this won't help those of us elsewhere, but we can always hope.
• Finally, Pokerstars will extend what is already a near monopoly. I think this is by far the biggest negative to come from the deal. In recent history Stars has showed that it is more than willing to take from its regulars, and with virtually no significant competition why wouldn't they? Interestingly enough, it isn't completely unrealistic to speculate that the cash grab at the start of 2012 was to enable this deal. If that were in fact the case, the return of my FTP balance wouldn't come close to make up the decrease in my rakeback this year.