There was an exceptional post on the 2+2 Forums a few days ago (in a theory thread that was a great idea to begin with) that really got me thinking.
The post is here:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=4059717&postcount=11
The entire thread is here:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?p=4059717#post4059717
I wrote a huge essay expanding on this topic a few days ago, then realized that I'm not confident enough about what I wrote to make it worth posting. Oh well, at the very least it was a learning experience.
Today I'm going to take another stab at it... and after writing another piece that was far too long, I don't really think it's worth posting either.
Here's the cliffnotes of what I believe is true and want to get across:
Against a typical TAG regular (lets say 13/9 with a 3-bet calling range range of {AK+, QQ+} 3-betting his open raise from MP1 (assume there are no other callers, otherwise squeezing is likely worthwhile) with QQ is +EV. However, flat calling is almost certainly higher +EV.
Against the same villain as above, 3-betting AK is the highest EV play possible with the hand as it functions as a semi-bluff. We fold out lots of hands that have ~53% equity against us, and have outs against the majority of hands that call (all except AA). 3-betting AQ is also likely +EV against such a villain for the same reasons. 3-betting AK and AQ also has the added benefit of increasing the likelyhood of being HU postflop with these hands, rathern than in multiway pots where they do not play well.
3-betting small pairs (22-55 or so, perhaps) as bluffs against the same villain is +EV until he adjusts. However, if we do this too often the probability of the villain adjusting increases, and if we are already 3-betting AQ against him, we definitely can't use this too often. Squeezing with such small pairs as a bluff is also a good option. Once we have gone to showdown doing this, the likelyhood of us getting paid off 3-betting our monsters also increases.
The bottom line is that against most regulars at microstakes, 3-betting a good bit more than the average TAG (who probably only 3bets AA/AK/KK) is +EV. However, this is due to the nature of 3-betting in general. In order to expand our 3-betting range, we are better off using hands that fall into the "semi bluff" or "bluff" categories such as AQ, 22-44, and SCs, rather than wasting hands that play well postflop like QQ and JJ. In addition, we need to keep our 3-betting frequency to a reasonable level so that we do not become a maniac and cause our opponents to adjust.
So how am I going to adjust my game based on the thoughts above? First off, I've stopped 3-betting JJ and QQ in non-squeeze situations, unless the villain is a donkey that won't fold hands like 99-TT and AJ to the raise. Against some drooling maniacs, I'm obviously looking to get AIPF with QQ and sometimes even JJ.
I don't think I've ever 3-bet a small pair or suited connector before, but I may start doing so occasionally, as I believe I have room to open up my 3-bet range profitably outside of AQ+, KK+.
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1 comment:
3-bet suited connectors for the win!
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