April + May Review - Travel, Mincashing a Major, and Ultimate Doomswitch

For the first time in the history of this blog I'm doing a combined review for two months. This is caused by the fact I was overseas for the last week of April and the first week of May. The trip, which took myself and my girlfriend to Monaco for the EPT Grand Final (using the second of my SNE packages earned in 2009) and then a week of Euro vacationing in France and Britain, was in all a great experience. To top things off, I managed to mincash in the EPT Final Main Event for 15,000 Euros, and luckboxed my way in an SNE freeroll event to an additional $1k USD in bounties and a $530 tourney ticket that I've yet to use and just reminded myself that I have by writing this! Hopefully I'll remember to use the ticket to play the Sunday 530 one of these weeks and maybe bink some extra cash. Anyway, It was both an enjoyable and profitable two weeks.

Unfortunately, online poker during both the months of April and May was horrific. May was a little worse than April, but overall I'm not certain I've ever run this bad, though February of 2009 might object to this claim. My volume through the six weeks and change I was available to play ended up being what would have been a high volume month or so for me last year - so it's a decent chunk of hands. I've certainly got some interesting whine graphs for the review that you'll see below!




4k AIEV discrepancies are good times. For fun, here's a SECT graph of my Sklansky EV over the two months. Yup, that's close to a 6k gap. Good stuff.



The bottom line:
$8648.15 table winnings
+$4327.92 FPP value in April (54,099 VPPs * 5 FPPs/VPP * 1.6c/FPP)
+$4286.24 FPP value in May (53,579 VPPs * 5 FPPs/VPP * 1.6c/FPP)
+$18825.49 from 15k Euro EPT Final ME cash (Ended up converting the Euros in small chunks as Stars had limits in place. As the 10k BI was part of my SNE package this was in a sense a freeroll, or more accurately value I earned last year but couldn't quantify. There's no other place to put this chunk of profit so it's going here to make me feel better!)
+$1000 from EPT Final SNE freeroll bounties (gogo 7 way 1st hand flip!)
+$100 deposit bonus
+$2800 300k VPP milestone bonus ($3600 cash - $800 FPP value to purchase)
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$39,987.80 USD total profit. At the current exchange rate that has been starting to get a little better for me lately, this is ~$42,181 CDN.

It looks like a big number and I'm happy I was able to mincash the ME, but in all I feel like the two months have been a disappointment from a poker perspective. Time to put it behind me though, and on the positive side thanks to the strong first three months of 2010 I've broken the 100k profit barrier on the year 5 months in. Would be nice to close out the year at an even 200k, though that certainly won't be an easy task despite my current pace, as I'll be losing my 5x FPP multiplier at the end of September and I'll inevitably play less volume the last couple months of the year when the games get more lousy than usual due to people putting mad volume chasing milestones/SNE.

Now that they've been in place and tested for a reasonable amount of time, I'm going to comment quickly on the changes Stars made to their table structures. They suck. They didn't make things better, which simply copying Full Tilt's model which was released several months EARLIER would have done guaranteed. They very well might have made things worse. It seems that Stars has acknowledged that they screwed the pooch on this one however, so hopefully things change. With the amount of time it took them to make these incredibly flawed changes in the first place, I doubt it'll be any time soon though.

Finally, I guess I'll also mention that there's a good chance I'll have a fairly major announcement regarding something poker related I'm producing sometime in the next week or so. Stay tuned.

-1ptBB Handicap

Expanding on the rant in my previous post, I thought it would be fun to post a graph of my AIEV over my last 175k hands, which for me is right around a full month worth of volume. In it, you'll see that I'm just over 3,300bbs below AIEV. That's 33 buy-ins.


As any poker player should be aware, AIEV is only a fraction of the variance involved in poker. That being said, it is by far the easiest to measure (and as long as you're not getting a short stack in against several big stacks in a multi way pot, 100% accurate) and absolutely non-trivial in the grand scheme of things.

To put things in perspective, my AIEV over the last 175k hands has resulted in my winrate being handicapped very close to a full ptBB/100 (or 2 bb/100). If you do the exact math, it's actually ~.942ptBB/100.

To a true break even FPP pro, this kind of variance over this kind of sample could easily annihilate any sort of profitability they might have. To a beginning player trying to learn and move up, it could annihilate their bankroll along with their will to play or belief they are capable of beating the games. I'm thankful that I don't fall into either of these categories.

Variance is an ugly, ugly mistress.

On a completely unrelated note, emulated fan translated Seiken Densetsu 3 with SNES clone USB controllers on a big screen TV is awesome. I love technology. That is all.

I Want To Play That Game

I want to be playing the game every other reg (perhaps Coordi and GrandMelon excluded) is playing. The game where when you stack off the stone cold nuts against a fish with a back door draw, you're not a massive underdog.

Unfortunately, I instead get to play the game where I have to consider how often a fish is drawing dead when I flop the nuts. If I have QQ on Q92r, I have to think about how often he's stacking off his Q3o, A7o, etc. and is drawing dead, vs how often he is stacking T9, A8, or god forbid JT and I'm a huge dog and should c/f. I understand that poker doesn't owe me anything, and I also understand variance and the math behind both variance and equity calculations very well.

Today, I had what was my best day of the month. I was 650bbs below AIEV. If I'm out less than a single buy in of AIEV for every thousand hands I play, I'm running super hot. The real positive is that I pulled a miracle fade of runner runner for a full stack at 600nl, which actually ended up being my largest net profit pot ever, by a $8.80 margin. I had actually stacked the same villain at a 50bb 600nl table about a half hour before when he had around ~$270 behind. So in total I took him for just under $900.

Two graphs to illustrate what running hot is like for me and then the two HHs. Both graphs are from Friday, one measured in big blinds and the other in USD:



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (5 handed)
UTG ($586.40)
MP ($655)
Button ($686.05)
Hero (SB) ($603)
BB ($240)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2, 2
UTG bets $18, 1 fold, Button calls $18, Hero calls $15, 1 fold

Flop: ($60) 10, 2, K (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $24, 1 fold, Hero raises to $78, UTG raises to $558, Hero raises to $585 (All-In), UTG calls $10.40 (All-In)

Turn: ($1196.80) 5 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($1196.80) 8 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $1196.80 | Rake: $2

Results:
Hero had 2, 2 (three of a kind, twos).
UTG had J, K (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: Hero won $1194.80

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (5 handed)
UTG ($779.60)
MP ($118.50)
Button ($271.25)
Hero (SB) ($300)
BB ($300)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, 7
2 folds, Button bets $18, Hero calls $15, 1 fold

Flop: ($42) 7, K, 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $24, Hero calls $24

Turn: ($90) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $42, Hero raises to $258 (All-In), Button calls $187.25 (All-In)

River: ($548.50) J (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $548.50 | Rake: $2

Results:
Button had 10, 8 (high card, King).
Hero had 7, 7 (three of a kind, sevens).
Outcome: Hero won $546.50

The Tourney Package That Just Keeps On Giving

I awoke today and as per usual checked my email, finding to my surprise that at a little past 3AM last night my 4k VIP bonus had been cleared. This set off alarm bells, because I had ended my session a few hours before 3AM and was still a few thoursand VPPs away from clearing said bonus.

I first checked my account balance to make sure everything was ok, and it was. As I have an RSA token this was next to a foregone conclusion, but it's always nice to make sure when you're dealing with a five figure roll. I next checked my VPP balance, which most certainly HAD increased since I last played, by what I figured was 4-5k (it was actually 4800). I couldn't be certain at the time, but it seemed as if my FPPs had increased proportionally as well.

After emailing support (and having to wait no more than five minutes for a reply, Stars support is not only the best among online poker sites, but world class period), I was informed that I was credited 4800 VPPs and based on my multiplier the corresponding 24,000 FPPs for purchasing the EPT Monte Carlo package. I was obviously pleased with this, as it is a free $384 worth of FPP value I wasn't expecting, and puts me a little closer to the next milestone bonus.

A quick break down of what the EPT Monte Carlo package provided because I think it is fairly impressive:
10k + 600E buy-in, which turned into my 15kE mincash
~900 and change Euros spending money (to be fair, this basically covered 1 flight)
$1k USD SNE donkament freeroll bounty cash
$530 USD tournament ticket from SNE freeroll
$384 USD FPP value (rakeback on rake that Stars paid for me as part of the package!)
7 nights at a very expensive 5 star resort in Monaco + buffet breakfast (if paid out of my own pocket, pretty sure this would be in the 4-7kE range)
Standard player bag full of free swag (swag didn't seem as awesome as WSOP ME 2009 bag or PCA 2010 bag, but free stuff is free stuff)

I'm definitely very happy with my choice of the PCA + EPT MC packages, they were great value and made my hard work last year feel all the more worthwhile.

Games, Games, Games

Warning: no poker content in this post.

As you may have guessed from the title, this is a gaming entry. During my EPT MC adventure I finished Lunar: Silver Star Harmony for the PSP. It was a well executed remake and enjoyable the whole way through. I've now moved on to Shin Megami Tensei: Strange Journey for the DS, which thus far has been exactly what I expected. I guess that's a good thing.

While running errands today I also picked up Monster Hunter Tri for the Wii, and preordered Starcraft 2 (can't wait) for the PC, 3D Dot Game Heroes for the PS3, and Persona 3 Portable for the PSP.

More importantly however, I also grabbed some cabling hardware to go along with the two SNES replica USB controllers I ordered prior to leaving. This all to the end that my best friend and I would finally be able to undo one of the most traumatic events of our childhood - that being Seiken Densetsu 3 not seeing an english translation or release. Thankfully however, several years ago some dedicated fans hacked an english translation into the ROM data and released it online. Thus, through the miracle of emulation and a laptop hooked up to my home theatre system, plus two USB SNES controllers, we will have a completely authentic experience playing through the sequel to Secret of Mana (Seiken Densetsu 2 in Japan). It is going to be a good time.

Trip Report Part 3 of 3: Britain

Following our day in Paris, we took the train to London and stayed for four nights in the suburb of Chertsey, at The Bridge Hotel. I have quite a bit of family on my father's side in England, and he timed his yearly vacation to his birth country such that he was able to act as our tour guide over the course of the trip. It has been sixteen years (note: I'm 25 years old) since I last visited Britain, so spending time with family I haven't seen in ages was a treat.

We spent a great deal of time driving around the English countryside. They may have a mere fraction of the land that we Canadians enjoy, but what they do have is groomed and manicured to an extent that you really have to see to believe. Perfectly trimmed hedges are everywhere. Wild ponies in the New Forest and some ridiculously tame Peacocks provided a lot of cute factor.

We spent one day in inner London, taking a boat tour which gave a good view (along with humorous live narration) of many historic sites, including the London Eye, Big Ben, the Parliament Building, the Tower of London, many of the bridges along the river Thames, and many other significant buildings I'm surely forgetting.

Outside of London, our major destinations were the Bournemouth area and the Canterbury area in Kent. Canterbury cathedral was even more awe inspiring than I remembered, and that's saying something. The castles of Dover and Courfe were both very interesting to view, especially given I have a soft spot for the medieval.

Here are a few photographs from our adventures:

The London Eye, viewed via boat. The picture doesn't quite do the size justice, it is one really, really big Ferris wheel.


A shot of Tower Bridge from the boat. My favorite of the bridges which span the river Thames.


Big Ben, and what I'm 90% sure is the Parliament Building to the left. Again, viewed from a boat tour taking us down the river Thames.


A look at Canterbury Cathedral, the Vatican equivalent for those of the Anglican branch of the Christian faith. The stained glass windows and tombs contained within are breathtaking.

Trip Report Part 2 of 3: Paris

We only spent one real day in Paris, as we arrived at around 10pm local time on the 1st, and departed at 1pm on the 3rd. It was an eventful day of doing the cliche touristy things. We climbed the Eiffel tower to the second observatory, which as far as I know is the furthest up as you reach can by stairs. It was right around 700 stairs each way, and the view was worth it. We then explored the outside of the Louvre and the surrounding park, where we were robbed at string point by a pair of Kenyans (inside joke, sorry). We would have attempted to go inside, but the line was so enormously huge (the movie Eurotrip wasn't kidding) that we put that ambition aside.

Our hotel in Paris was located right next to the Gare du Nord train station, and while the staff spoke great English and was helpful, the room made the two star rating seem generous. I found it odd how expensive Paris hotels are compared to those in Britain, where I was able to get a very nice 4 star hotel for close to the same price. We had three good meals, including a Parisian breakfast at a classic French diner, and dinner at a nice Italian spot close to our hotel. Lunch was spent at "The Great Canadian Pub", which we had to check out once we saw the sign. It did feel fairly Canadian, if mostly due to the hockey merchandise everywhere.

Below are a few photos from our day:

Looking up at the Eiffel tower. The number of souvenir peddlers at the base is astounding.


A view from the first deck of the Eiffel.


A view from the second deck of the Eiffel.


The entrance to the Louvre (the pyramid looking thingy) and some of the surrounding building in which the museum itself is located.

Trip Report Part 1 of 3: Monte Carlo

After flying out of Calgary the evening of April 23rd, we hopped planes at London Heathrow early on the 24th and landed in Nice that afternoon. We split the cab from Nice airport to Monte Carlo with a player who was arriving from Edmonton, reaching the hotel extremely jet lagged around 6pm or so local time. As expected, the resort hotel was extravagant. On the elevator ride up to my room I bumped into Joe Hachem, though I think I may have been too tired at that point to make coherent small talk - it's a bit of a blur.

As I started play on Day 1B, we had a full day to recuperate and look around Monaco. Unfortunately for us it was Sunday, so the vast majority of establishments were closed. Despite this we did enjoy a good walk around the shopping district near our hotel, and explored the beach side promenade which we would visit daily for drinks, slurpees, and other such items over the course of our stay.

I won't talk terribly much about my tournament experiences in either the EPT Final Main event or the SNE freeroll, as they have been documented in earlier blog posts. To sum it all up quickly, I finished 121/848, min cashing for 15,000 Euros in the Main Event. I spent the entire second day seated directly to the left of Chris Moneymaker, who is one of the most personable guys I have ever met and was delightful to play with. In the SNE freeroll I picked up $1000 worth of bounties and final tabled to receive a $530 tournament ticket.

I must mention that while just about everything (food/drink included) was very expensive as expected in Monaco, we were very fortunate to be provided a buffet breakfast every morning thanks to Pokerstars. As you might imagine, this quickly became our biggest meal of the day, and the quality of food was very high. Though the resort hotel was absolutely gorgeous, particularly the garden areas, the attitudes of some of the staff became a bit off putting. You could tell they were not used to the kind of clientele the EPT Final (or any poker event for that matter)brings, and some certainly held some resentment due to it.

On the final few days of our stay, we took a tour bus around Monaco. Being the second smallest country in the world behind the Vatican, this didn't take very long. There were however a ton of sites to see, and the vast majority of the land is aesthetically pleasing, particularly any place with a garden. We spent some time at the Oceanographic Museum, which had an extremely wide array of sea life to gawk at, along with many historical pieces from one of Monaco's princes. We witnessed the changing of the guards at the palace, and attended the EPT Season 6 Awards party, which was entertaining.

My lovely girlfriend is always in charge of the photography on our trips, and from the two weeks we spent away (including France/Britain, those TRs will come soon) we have 527 photos. I normally don't post much in the way of pictures, but since I promised the great vinivici I would, I'm going to take my favorite handful from Monaco and put them below along with a short explanation.


The view from our hotel room. My SNE status managed to get us into the baller hotel rather than the cheaper alternatives most qualifiers were put up at. Unfortunately they had a very small number of Sea View Rooms available, and I was left without one. The mountainside view was still very nice however.


Me standing with a water sphere monument in the background. This was just outside Le Sporting club where the tournament itself was played. I know this picture isn't terribly interesting, but I'm including because I spent almost every break during the tournament play staring at the sphere enjoying the light mist it provides.


The port in Monte Carlo, taken from just outside the royal palace. So many massive yachts. We thought the ones docked at the Atlantis during the PCA were nice, but Monaco put things in perspective a little.


The changing of the guard outside the palace. They were twenty minutes late from their scheduled time, though it worked out for us because we got off our bus just as the event was starting.

Paris TR and then Britain TR to follow. Stay tuned.