Here's my EV graph, where my Sklansky Buck analysis has me unlucky to the tune of $80. Damn donkeys rivering two pair against TPTK...
All-in luck graph, that reinforces how bad I ran:
Here's the bluff I originally was pretty proud of, but in hindsight, not so much. The villian in this hand is a solid 14/11 TAG over 150 hands. I'm pretty certain he can lay down big hands when it's likely he's beat.
NL Texas Hold'em (0.25/0.50)
Game #16427114299, Table "Planckia" (9 Handed Max.)
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Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: bobko9 ($30.45 in chips) Seat 2: TOPX ($49.50 in chips) Seat 3: Ronfar3 ($58.25 in chips) Seat 4: Zyplen ($49.60 in chips) Seat 5: ded0nArrivl ($48.75 in chips) Seat 6: hondizls ($67.75 in chips) Seat 7: northsider21 ($78.60 in chips) Seat 8: $$BRSNAP$$ ($66.70 in chips) Seat 9: bighippy ($35.10 in chips) $$BRSNAP$$ posts the small blind $0.25 bighippy posts the big blind $0.50 |
Preflop:
Ronfar3 has been dealt [8h 8d] bobko9 folds TOPX folds Ronfar3 raises $1.50 to $2 Zyplen folds ded0nArrivl folds hondizls raises $4 to $6 northsider21 folds $$BRSNAP$$ folds bighippy folds Ronfar3 calls $4 |
The Flop: [9d 2h 3d]
Ronfar3 checks hondizls bets $7 Ronfar3 raises $13 to $20 hondizls calls $13 |
The Turn: [9d 2h 3d | Qd]
Ronfar3 bets $32.25 and is *ALL-IN* hondizls folds Ronfar3 won $50.15 from pot Ronfar3 doesn't show hand |
Hand Summary:
The Final Board: [9d 2h 3d Qd] Ronfar3 won $50.15 Seat 6: hondizls folded on the Turn |
Here's why I played the hand the way I did. I'm not necessarily sure the hand as a whole is +EV, it is certainly quite complicated.
At any rate, lets start with the flop 3-bet. I make a standard raise from MP with 88, and get 3-bet by the CO. Because the bet was only three times my original bet (I always go to 3.5-4 times when 3-betting to deny people set odds) and I have a ~$60 effective stack, this is a marginal EV call for set value. Recall the 5/10 rule when set mining: if the bet is less than 5% of the effective stacks, clear call, if it's more than 10%, clear fold - in between is usually marginal and depends on the villian. The $4 bet was roughly 6.7% of the effective stacks so I figured it was a marginally +EV call, though folding certainly wouldn't be terrible either. Also, since our villian is a true TAG running 14/11, it's quite possible AQ is in his 3-betting range, which improves our EV against his range.
On the flop, lets assign him a 3-betting range of AQ+, JJ+. Against his range here, I have the following equity:
Hero: 46.003% 8h8d
Villian: 53.997% JJ+, AQs+, AQo+
That said, I'm not likely to extract more value out of AQ/AK unless he spikes a card, and will likely have to call bets on the turn/river to continue against overpairs. He bets weakly out on the flop, $7 into a ~$13 pot, and I decide to check-raise hoping to take down the pot right there, but unfortunately have him call. Lets look at the three options I have on the flop. I could fold, which is the safe play at this point, and isn't necessarily wrong. I could raise, as I did. Raising means risking $20-$25 to win the pot of $20, so the villian has to fold ~50% of the time for this to be profitable, assuming we are always way behind if he calls. The villian is very likely to fold AK/AQ unless they are suited diamonds, and quite possibly JJ, as all JJ beats on that board is a bluff. He is unlikely to fold QQ+. So, since AQ and AK are roughly twice as common as pocket pairs, and he folds 7/8ths of all AQ/AK combinations, and maybe 1/4 of his overpairs (perhaps JJ, but not QQ/KK/AA), he is folding roughly 56% of the time here, which leads me to believe the play is marginally +EV. Finally, lets consider the EV of calling and then leading the turn. I would need to commit $7 to call, which would make the pot $27, and then in order to bluff the turn, commit around another ~$20 assuming an A or K doesn't fall. A diamond falling also potentially allows the villian to fold QQ/KK or maybe even AA, assuming he doesn't hold the Q/K/A of diamonds. So it seems calling/leading turn requires us to commit slightly more money than raising the flop, but allows us to bail out if a turn falls that hits our villian's range. I'm really not certain if this is higher EV than raising, but I expect they are probably pretty close.
So, I raise the flop, unfortunately for me the villian calls, and the turn comes a Q of diamonds. This is an ok turn for me, because it completes the flush, and the NFD is certainly part of my range which would check-raise the flop. I've got roughly a 2/3rd pot size bet left behind, and my options here are obviously to either give up on the hand (check/fold) or shove. The villian needs to fold roughly 40% of the time for the shove to be +EV. I really wish I had a little more behind (to make it a 3/4 pot size bet or so) on the River here, since betting 2/3rds is giving the Villian decent odds to call.
That said, considering he called the flop lets revise Villian's range to be AKdd, JJ, QQ, KK, and AA. He is most definitely not folding AKdd (AQdd is impossible, as Qd is on the board), but these are a fairly small part of his range. He surely folds JJ, doesn't fold QQ, likely folds KK and maybe folds AA as well, unless he has the Ad. Given the board, there is one combination of AKdd, six of JJ, three of QQ, six of KK, and six of AA (3 with Ad, 3 without). Thus, in the best case scenario he folds 6 (JJ) + 6 (KK) + 3 (AA, no Ad) of the 22 total combinations, or roughly 68% of the combinations. In a perhaps more realistic scenario, where he calls with any AA and KxKd, he is folding 6 combinations of JJ and 3 of KK, or 9 of the possible 22 total combinations, which is 41%. Thus, this part of the bluff is possibly +EV. It's also very possible his range should be weighted away from JJ as he certainly might have folded it to the C/R on the flop, or may not even have 3-bet it in the first place - if this is a case, the turn shove is almost certainly spew. After thinking about it further, I think the latter is the case, but the possibility of the former certainly should bring it closer to neutral EV.
Overall, this was a tricky hand to play (I very possibly played it wrong) and equally tough to analyze, but I hope it helps my readers some. I really believe that the possible flop lines (c/f, c/r, b/f) are all pretty close to neutral EV, but that the turn shove is likely spewy.
Edit as of Jan 2nd, 2010: I played the hand above really bad and my analysis probably isn't great either. Please don't take it as gospel!
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